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Preconceptions are very risky.
I think that one of the reasons that Focus Ratings is where it is today is that I had absolutely no preconceived ideas when I started it and, thus, had to test everything out myself.
However, when I started the Speed Ratings I had this silly idea that only recent speed figures would accurately predict the speed of a horse.
How wrong was I!
After a busy day’s testing yesterday, I can now clearly see that, the more races I use to generate the Speed Ratings, the more accurate that they become.
Anyway, I’ll get to that, firstly let’s get on and take a quick look at yesterday’s results in more detail….
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|2015-02-26||Chelmsford (AW)||19:10||Forceful Appeal||1||4.00||4.40|
|2015-02-26||Taunton||17:10||Its A Long Road||1||3.00||3.14|
|2015-02-26||Southwell (AW)||16:50||Al Muheer||1||17.00||23.48|
|2015-02-26||Southwell (AW)||15:40||Royal Marskell||1||3.75||3.95|
|2015-02-25||Kempton (AW)||19:45||Sandy Cove||1||3.75||4.30|
|2015-02-25||Kempton (AW)||19:15||The Gay Cavalier||1||6.50||7.00|
|2015-02-25||Kempton (AW)||17:15||Boboli Gardens||1||4.00||4.40|
|2015-02-25||Wincanton||16:40||Big Fella Thanks||1||1.83||1.92|
|2015-02-25||Wincanton||16:10||Dont Call Me Oscar||1||3.50||3.95|
|2015-02-25||Bangor-on-Dee||15:25||Saint John Henry||1||3.00||3.21|
|2015-02-25||Wincanton||14:10||Streets Of Promise||1||4.50||5.60|
|2015-02-24||Lingfield (AW)||16:40||Total Demolition||1||13.00||18.50|
|2015-02-24||Leicester||15:20||Palypso De Creek||1||2.38||2.47|
|2015-02-24||Catterick||15:00||Aristo Du Plessis||1||2.40||2.43|
Or, to be more precise, before I started Focus Ratings, I ran a small blog which detailed the process of my learning about Horse Racing.
I had to close that blog down because of the work involved in running Focus Ratings.
Now, on that blog I used to give away free, public domain horse racing ebooks (to understand Public Domain, take a look at the Books Page) and yesterday, whilst I was waiting for a bit of the Speed Ratings code to run (I’m getting there, by the way) I thought I’d do a bit of housekeeping on my server and found the folder containing all these old ebooks and I took a look at one of them and remembered how good it was.
Anyway, I thought I’d share that book with you today and will try to get round to sharing the others as and when I have the time.
Especially as I believe that it is half term in the UK but,
With the changes coming up as regards the Speed Ratings,
I have to give you some homework!
I ought to say that if you are happy with the current ratings then please feel free to continue to use them.
However, the inclusion of the Speed Ratings on the morning ratings PDF does mean that I have to change the format of that PDF.
And, if you want to use the new ratings PDF then you’ll have to have a think about how the changes might affect you.
Just a solution waiting to be found!
Yesterday, in Speed Ratings – 6, I mentioned that I was going to have a problem working out how many milliseconds a head or a length was going to be.
I asked for your comments and you responded.
Thank you for your contributions; they’ve helped me begin to resolve this issue.
The Good News is that…
The first stage of the test run of the Horse Speed Ratings went well yesterday morning.
So well that, at 9am (after 6 hours work), I decided to pop out to the bank whilst the second stage was running, rather than just sit staring at a screen for three hours, worrying about it.
However, and there’s always a however, isn’t there…
Whilst driving the 20km to my nearest town I realised that I’d missed something really rather vital out.
You see, whilst I can work out the average speed (per furlong) for a horse for a race, the one thing I have just realised that I’m going to have trouble with is…
How long is a neck, in terms of milliseconds, (or a head or a length) during the last part of the final furlong.
And that’s, unfortunately…
The Standard Times for the All Weather tracks.
If you want to see them, the spreadsheet (in CSV format) is available at Standard Times.
These Standard Times will be updated on the 1st of March and, on the first of each month thereafter. They will be based on data from the 8th of July 2013 and, from August 2015, will be then based upon the last 2 year’s data.
Now, I do have to edit this file to change the Goings to take into account the surface.
Standard on Polytrack will become Standard PT (Kempton, Lingfield, Dundalk and pre-December 2014 Wolves),
Standard on Equitrack (Southwell) will become Standard EQ and
Standard on Tapeta (Wolves from late December 2014) will become Standard TP.
Once I’ve done that, I can then move on to the Horse Speed Ratings.
They should now be easy to compile but they will take a long time.
Many of you have sent me emails; here are some of the comments that I’ve received…
I am going to look at how the Average Race Times vary for different types of races.
I’m coming into this blind as I really don’t have any pre-conceived ideas.
I’m sorry for the inundation of emails today but I felt that it was easier to split the logic up into small chunks to make it easier for me to handle and to allow you to respond to individual “concepts” in a manageable way for me.
So, lets see what the numbers say…