Focus Ratings is a Uk and Irish Horse Racing ratings service designed to aid you and help you narrow the field so that you can concentrate on the real contenders. Our completely computerised analysis system selects the top three rated horses from each race and sends out the ratings every day at 10:00 a.m.  Wonderful results and an excellent strike rate.  Use Focus Ratings to win more money and make more profits from British and Irish Horse Racing.  The only horse racing system you'll ever need.

Welcome to Focus Ratings

Focus Ratings is a ratings service designed to aid you and help you narrow the field so that you can concentrate on the real contenders. Our completely computerised analysis system selects the top three rated horses from each race and sends out the ratings every day at 10:00 a.m. (Check our Sample Ratings)

Focus Ratings covers all UK & Irish races and only costs £27 a month (+VAT) or £67 a quarter (+VAT)!

Check out our Incredible Results! - Read the Independant Reviews! - It's easy to use - especially with our Focus Ratings Handbook and our useful Cheat Sheet - We've even got our own System Builder to help you use the ratings to their fullest extent!



Latest Post - August 19, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-19

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Going through the old historical bets that would, had I got my act in gear a bit earlier, produced the Focus Ratings Daily Bets is quite a slow and boring process but…

The results are looking good.

Actually, it’s quite a nice process (albeit a bit boring) going back in time to see what would have happened and seeing that what would have happened seems pretty good.

Today I am going to commit to producing a 1 or 2 page PDF to explain the strategy and the rules behind this strategy but…

Basically, from every day’s R10 top rated races I choose (where possible) a safe bet (the Banker’s Bet) and a slightly more risky bet (the Chancer’s Bet.)

For those of you who have been Focus Ratings members since the beginning (9 years ago), we used to do that for our Portfolio Bets.

Those bets were actually blindly profitable but they did have some nasty losing runs.

The new strategy is far more profitable because it is based upon Focus Ratings R10 ratings rather than the original (9 years old) R4 ratings.

The idea is to have 2 win bets a day (a safe but lower profit one and a slightly more risky but higher profit one) and then do the double on those 2 selections.

And then, do the accumulator based upon the two selections for the double and also any Also Rans in that selection process.

Now, you can do that at the bookies but, it is far better to do that on Betfair.

That can be done manually but it can also be done better using a bot.

I am speaking to a Betfair Bot programmer to see if he can import a CSV file (that I can produce) and allow you to do the two singles, the double and also the accumulator with the option of cashing out at a profit (for the accumulator) or, cashing out some of your profits and carrying some on to finish the accumulator or…

Just doing the two singles, the double and the entire accumulator.

I have worked with this programmer for 9 years and I’m pretty sure that he will be able to accommodate our requirements.

rodders01Then, we take the 2 main bets and any other candidates that didn’t make the grade and do an accumulator on those bets.

Going back, day by day, over the last few months I almost feel that I’m going to make a statement such as…

Rodney, if we stick at it…

This time next year…

We’ll be bluddy milllionaires!

But, obviously,

I’m not going to say anything like that, am I?

After all…

That would jinx things, wouldn’t it?

Yesterday’s Focus Ratings Daily Bets – 2022-08-18…

Banker’s Bet

Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa – 4th

Chancers Bet

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream – 1st @ 1.42 BSP

Daily Double

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream – 1st @ 1.42 BSP
Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa – 4th

Daily Accumulator

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream – 1st @ 1.42 BSP
Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa – 4th

Today’s Focus Ratings Daily Bets – 2022-08-19…

Banker’s Bet

Carlisle – 15:45 – Temper Trap (154.81)

Chancers Bet

Carlisle – 13:30 – One Of Our Own (146.21)

Daily Double

Carlisle – 15:45 – Temper Trap (154.81)
Carlisle – 13:30 – One Of Our Own (146.21)

Daily Accumulator

Carlisle – 15:45 – Temper Trap (154.81)
Carlisle – 13:30 – One Of Our Own (146.21)

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-19

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August 19, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-19

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Going through the old historical bets that would, had I got my act in gear a bit earlier, produced the Focus Ratings Daily Bets is quite a slow and boring process but…

The results are looking good.

Actually, it’s quite a nice process (albeit a bit boring) going back in time to see what would have happened and seeing that what would have happened seems pretty good.

Today I am going to commit to producing a 1 or 2 page PDF to explain the strategy and the rules behind this strategy but…

Basically, from every day’s R10 top rated races I choose (where possible) a safe bet (the Banker’s Bet) and a slightly more risky bet (the Chancer’s Bet.)

For those of you who have been Focus Ratings members since the beginning (9 years ago), we used to do that for our Portfolio Bets.

Those bets were actually blindly profitable but they did have some nasty losing runs.

The new strategy is far more profitable because it is based upon Focus Ratings R10 ratings rather than the original (9 years old) R4 ratings.

The idea is to have 2 win bets a day (a safe but lower profit one and a slightly more risky but higher profit one) and then do the double on those 2 selections.

And then, do the accumulator based upon the two selections for the double and also any Also Rans in that selection process.

Now, you can do that at the bookies but, it is far better to do that on Betfair.

That can be done manually but it can also be done better using a bot.

I am speaking to a Betfair Bot programmer to see if he can import a CSV file (that I can produce) and allow you to do the two singles, the double and also the accumulator with the option of cashing out at a profit (for the accumulator) or, cashing out some of your profits and carrying some on to finish the accumulator or…

Just doing the two singles, the double and the entire accumulator.

I have worked with this programmer for 9 years and I’m pretty sure that he will be able to accommodate our requirements.

rodders01Then, we take the 2 main bets and any other candidates that didn’t make the grade and do an accumulator on those bets.

Going back, day by day, over the last few months I almost feel that I’m going to make a statement such as…

Rodney, if we stick at it…

This time next year…

We’ll be bluddy milllionaires!

But, obviously,

I’m not going to say anything like that, am I?

After all…

That would jinx things, wouldn’t it?

Yesterday’s Focus Ratings Daily Bets – 2022-08-18…

Banker’s Bet

Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa – 4th

Chancers Bet

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream – 1st @ 1.42 BSP

Daily Double

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream – 1st @ 1.42 BSP
Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa – 4th

Daily Accumulator

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream – 1st @ 1.42 BSP
Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa – 4th

Today’s Focus Ratings Daily Bets – 2022-08-19…

Banker’s Bet

Carlisle – 15:45 – Temper Trap (154.81)

Chancers Bet

Carlisle – 13:30 – One Of Our Own (146.21)

Daily Double

Carlisle – 15:45 – Temper Trap (154.81)
Carlisle – 13:30 – One Of Our Own (146.21)

Daily Accumulator

Carlisle – 15:45 – Temper Trap (154.81)
Carlisle – 13:30 – One Of Our Own (146.21)

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-19

August 18, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-18

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I’m getting some interesting results for the historical Daily Bets strategy.

Now. typically you would do doubles and accumulators at the bookies but…

I am going to be reporting on these bets to BSP.

Obviously you can manually do both bet types at Betfair and I am aware that there are bots that allow you to program accumulators and, if required, stop at a profit.

If you use a bot that can do this I would be very interested if you could let me know; I will then be able to contact the company to work out what form the data extract (for upload) needs to be.

Yesterday there were no bets – here are today’s bets…

Focus Ratings Daily Bets…

Banker’s Bet

Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa

Chancers Bet

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream

Daily Double

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream
Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa

Daily Accumulator

Chepstow – 14:50 – Flyawaydream
Fontwell – 19:55 – Andapa

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-18

August 17, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-17

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Another good day’s work yesterday.

Little by little I am automating some of my daily task; this will give me more time to work on strategies.

Today I shall start working backward on the Focus Ratings Daily Bets to see how they would have performed historically.

Tomorrow I hope to be able to publish the rules for the strategy.

Focus Ratings Daily Bets…

Banker’s Bet

There are no selections today.

Chancers Bet

There are no selections today.

Daily Double

There are no selections today.

Daily Accumulator

There are no selections today.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-17

August 16, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-16

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Although yesterday was a Bank Holiday over here…

I did manage to get a reasonable amount of work done.

I am now one step closer to automate a large portion of my regular morning work.

This should save me at least an hour a day.

Here were yesterday’s Daily Bets…

Banker’s Bet

Catterick – 16:25 – Remembering (192%) – 1st @ 1.25 BSP

Chancers Bet

Bangor On Dee – 17:10 – Presentandcounting (200%) – 1st @ 1.10 BSP

Daily Double

Catterick – 16:25 – Remembering (192%) – 1st @ 1.25 BSP
Bangor On Dee – 17:10 – Presentandcounting (200%) – 1st @ 1.10 BSP

Daily Accumulator

Catterick – 16:25 – Remembering (192%) – 1st @ 1.25 BSP
Windsor – 16:50 – Tribal Wisdom (185%) – 2nd
Bangor On Dee – 17:10 – Presentandcounting (200%) – 1st @ 1.10 BSP

Focus Ratings Daily Bets…

Banker’s Bet

There are no selections today.

Chancers Bet

There are no selections today.

Daily Double

There are no selections today.

Daily Accumulator

There are no selections today.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-16

August 15, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-15

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

The best laid plans of mice and men…

After a week of boiling hot weather, yesterday I decided to do some gardening and, of course…

It decided to rain.

So, I had a day off after all.

Today is a bank holiday over here but I shall be working as I’ve got quite a bit to get done.

There were no Daily Bets yesterday but Roy (my partner at Intelligent-Betting.com) did share this with me (Saturday’s selections – the Daily Accumulator)…

IMG_7382

Focus Ratings Daily Bets

Banker’s Bet

Catterick – 16:25 – Remembering (192%)

Chancers Bet

Bangor On Dee – 17:10 – Presentandcounting (200%)

Daily Double

Catterick – 16:25 – Remembering (192%)
Bangor On Dee – 17:10 – Presentandcounting (200%)

Daily Accumulator

Catterick – 16:25 – Remembering (192%)
Windsor – 16:50 – Tribal Wisdom (185%)
Bangor On Dee – 17:10 – Presentandcounting (200%)

The numbers in brackets are the confidence levels of the horses – I use this to choose the selection when there are more than one selection for the Banker’s Bet or the Chancer’s Bet – the non-selected horses become part of the Daily Accumulator.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-15

August 14, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-14

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Although today is technically my day off and…

A day of gardening beckons,

After yesterday results, I shall be looking at options for betting the Focus Ratings Daily Bets.

I know that, technically, you can’t do Multiple bets on Betfair, they can be done manually and there are some bots that allow the automation of those such bets.

Focus Ratings Daily Bets…

Here are yesterday’s selections…

Chancer’s Bet

Market Rasen – 17:06 – Sofia’s Rock – 1st @ 1.95 BSP

Banker’s Bet

Doncaster – 15:13 – The Green Man – 1st @ 1.81 BSP

Daily Double

Market Rasen – 17:06 – Sofia’s Rock – 1st @ 1.95 BSP
Doncaster – 15:13 – The Green Man – 1st @ 1.81 BSP

Daily Accumulator

Doncaster – 13:00 – Nonsuch Lad – 1st @ 2.98 BSP
Doncaster – 15:13 – The Green Man – 1st @ 1.81 BSP
Curragh – 16:05 – Luxembourgh – 1st @ 1.23 BSP
Market Rasen – 17:06 – Sofia’s Rock – 1st @ 1.95 BSP

Here are today’s selections…

There are no selections today.

At some point next week I shall explain, in detail, the rules and philosophy behind this new strategy.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-14

August 13, 2022 - Morning New – 2022-08-13

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After a day of admin work…

I have tidied up the Place Profits service.

I have verified that all current members are still subscribed and have removed those who aren’t.

If you were a member and your selections stop arriving (and you think that they should arrive) then please let me know and I’ll sort it out.

Place Profits…

I shall be making some changes to the service.

From now on, I shall only be showing the Plus Profits Plus selections – these are the ones that I proof to Racing Index.

If you are still interested in the older systems then I can write some instructions so that you can compile them yourself.

By doing this it means that I can automate the selections process and the sending out of the daily email.

This will save me an awful lot of time every morning and ensure a consistent service.

But, more importantly, it will automatically update the database with the selections and, more importantly, automatically update the results on a daily basis.

Focus Ratings Daily Bets…

Somehow I forgot to give you yesterday’s selections so I can’t really report on them.

Read More about Morning New – 2022-08-13

August 12, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-12

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After the problems that I’ve had recently I’ve got a bit behind in my admin work.

Rather than do things in logical chronological order I have decided to do one service at a time and continue until all services are up to date.

Today I shall be starting with Place Profits; I have some improvements to implement – these will automate the selections and allow the results to be updated far faster.

I am aware that some Place Profits members have unsubscribed but are still receiving their selections – this is a problem with my membership software but I believe that I have now fixed it. I shall manually sort out the discrepancies today. If you (Place Profits members) stop receiving selections but believe that you should be receiving them, please let me know and I’ll investigate and sort things out.

Focus Ratings Daily Bets…

I have been analyzing the historic results for multiple betting the non-handicap R10 top rated horses and…

Whilst, on a daily basis, it looks like we get lots of winners from those horses, the overall strike rate isn’t good enough for a multiple betting system.

For example, if we have 3 non-handicap R10 top rated horses then we can do a Patent.

However, if one of those horses doesn’t win then we lose 1 Win bet, 2 Double bets and the Accumulator – leaving just 2 win bets and 1 double which, probably won’t make the profit to cover the 4 losing bets.

All is not bad, though…

If we concentrate on the blindly profitable race types then things start to make sense.

From these I can create a Banker’s Bet, a Chancer’s Bet and a Double on those 2 horses.

I can also create an accumulator from all the potential selections of which only 1 will be chosen for the Banker’s bet and 1 for the Chancer’s bet.

Yesterday’s suggestions (please bear in mind that this is Beta testing)…

There were 4 non-handicap R10 top rated horses yesterday…

Beverley – 13:35 – Beautiful Aisling – 1st @ 1.48 BSP
Salisbury – 13:55 – American In Paris – 3rd
Salisbury – 14:30 – Time Step – 2nd
Leopardstown – 18:20 – Only – 1st @ 1.36 BSP

To continue with my old strategy (for two bets a day) there was one bet…

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-12

August 11, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-11

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Moving my desk so that I could get my windows open didn’t take as long as I thought yesterday.

And, amazing, nothing went wrong – that’s got to be a first!

I’ve now got a nice breeze coming in over the top of my screens and it is making all the difference.

Once I had got that out of the way I decided to clear down some of the old jobs.

For the last 6 months one of the Focus Ratings members has been asking if I could take a look at the possibility of doing the Patent or Lucky 15 on the Focus Ratings R10 non-handicap selections.

So, I did some analysis and it seemed like following up.

With no filters at all, there were 3 non-handicap R10 top rated horses yesterday…

Yarmouth – 14:50 – Bellstreet Bridie – 1st @ 15/8 ISP
Gowran Park – 16:20 – Zaniuka – 4th
Ffos Las – 19:45 – Karuoka – 2nd

So, enough for a Patent, then.

I also took the time to re-visit an old strategy that I never finished.

This provides just 2 win bets a day from the R10 top rated horses (handicap or non-handicap.)

The Chancer’s Bet (high profits but slightly more risky) was…

Beverley – 16:10 – Andaleep – 1st @ 5/6 ISP

The Banker’s Bet (high strike rate but lower prices) was…

Yarmouth – 14:50 – Bellstreet Bridie – 1st @ 15/8 ISP

Today’s suggestions (please bear in mind that this is Beta testing)…

There are 4 non-handicap R10 top rated horses today…

Beverley – 13:35 – Beautiful Aisling
Salisbury – 13:55 – American In Paris
Salisbury – 14:30 – Time Step
Leopardstown – 18:20 – Only

This means that we can do the Lucky 15.

To continue with my old strategy (for two bets a day)…

The Chancer’s Bet (high profits but slightly more risky) is…

There is no selections today.

The Banker’s Bet (high strike rate but lower prices) is…

Salisbury – 14:30 – Time Step

Now, I personally (having taken a good look at the spreadsheet) don’t believe that thee is a long term strategy by doing multiple bets n the non-handicap

I have an idea that we should any potential selections for the Chancer’s Bet and Banker’s Bet as our selections for our multiple bets.

For example, today there were two potential selections for the Banker’s Bet…

Beverley – 13:35 – Beautiful Aisling
Salisbury – 14:30 – Time Step

I chose Time Step as it has the higher Confidence level but, according to my theory we should use those two horses (and any potential selections for the Chancer’s Bet) as the basis for the multiple bets.

So…

According to this, today we would be doing a win bet on both of those horses and, also, a double on them. I shall come up with definitive rules tomorrow.

I shall be continuing with investigating this for the next few days. I shall be publishing the selections in the Morning News until I am happy that there is a decent strategy and then Focus Ratings members will be able to get the selections emailed to them for free.



Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-11

August 10, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-10

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

For a few hours this morning…

I shall be offline.

I need to move the desk that my email machine is on so that I can sort out the mess of cables behind it and, also, so that I can arrange things so that I can open the window behind the desk.

I’m pretty sure that it is hot for you guys at the moment but it is very hot here and I am surrounded by 5 computers and 9 screens which all pump out heat. The only way that I’ve been able to get any work done today is to sit here in my boxer shorts. Now, that doesn’t worry me but I’m a bit worried about what wold happen if someone knocked on the door – would I remember to get dressed before opening the door?

By being able to open the window behind my email machine desk should cool things done a substantial amount.

Even with the heat I did manage to get a decent amount of work done yesterday.

I have managed to get some of my websites migrated to the new server and will be continuing with this process over the next few days.

Once that is done then I shall be able to return to normal work trying to identify profitable strategies and so forth – that’s the bit that I enjoy more than anything else.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-10

August 9, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-09

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Well…

I am going to sleep well tonight!

Once a year we have a fair come to the village; some of the attractions get set up in the market square; it is very noisy; I live in the market square.

That basically means that, for four days and nights I don’t really get any sleep.

However, the fair closed down yesterday at midnight and, although they made a lot of noise breaking down the attractions and loading them onto lorries, (and are still banging away at it) it’ll be as quiet as could be tonight.

Yesterday I did manage to get a lot of work done; specifically on my client management and billing systems.

If you notice any unexpected changes to your access to whichever services that you subscribe to please let me know and I’ll sort it out.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-09

August 8, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-08-08

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Well…

It seems like ages since my last Morning News and,

I guess that it has been.

I have been incredibly busy, during that period, with many updates to my IT and am finally getting somewhere.

My hosting company has been very helpful by showing me all the options and, as a result, I now have multiple servers, each one being contingent for the others. Thus, whatever problems may arise in the future (and, believe me, they will arise) they won’t affect you.

Today I am looking at a Cloud based service to add on to the current server infrastructure – that might just be the finishing touch.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-08-08

July 20, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/07/20

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After a massive thunderstorm yesterday morning…

The heatwave seems to have broken over here.

As a result it is far more comfortable getting work done.

I have some admin work to finish off but,

I am also hoping to get on with my One Race a Day – Bet the Race strategy.

Once I have got some more data in he spreadsheet (I don’t really need to finish it before sharing it) I’ll explain the strategy behind choosing 1 race a day and having Win Bets, Place Bets and Lay Bets on that race.

Currently I am concentrating on those races where historically we have a 100% strike rate for the Lay Bet portion.

Then I shall refine it to give us a 90% strike rate on the Place Bets and so forth.

It’ll all make more sense once I can share the underlying spreadsheet.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/07/20

July 19, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/07/19

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

With the recent heat…

It’s been very hard to get any real work done.

I sit in the apex of an L shaped desk with 5 computer and 9 screens.

These each pump out heat, which is nice in the winter but has been very uncomfortable over the last few days.

Still, today is promised to be a lot cooler so, perhaps, I’ll be able to spend more time (in my boxer shorts – not a pretty sight!) clearing the backlog of work.

For the next week or so, keith.eckstein@gmail.com is the best email address to use. I am bringing back some of the other email addresses but it’s slow work for me.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/07/19

July 7, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/07/07

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Work on the new, standby, server is progressing well.

As I copy over services I have to test them on the new server but…

Nothing has fallen over yet.

Not that it should; if it works on the current server it should work on the new one. It’s just after the week that I had last week, I guess that I’m now always expecting the worst.

So, generally good news – I hope that there’ll be more to follow tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/07/07

July 4, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/07/04

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After the stressful week that I had last week…

I took most of the weekend off.

However, today I have had an early start and, as a result, am well on track to getting a whole load of work done.

FocusRatings.net is just about ready to be uploaded and I have some more modifications to my email server to be completed today.

So, a busy day lies ahead.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/07/04

July 2, 2022 -

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Yesterday was a catch up day for me and today will be much the same.

The new informational site should be up and running today and I’ll be able to explain it tomorrow.

The only major change will be that most of the daily emails will come from contact@focusratings.net

More to follow tomorrow.

Read More about

July 1, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/07/01

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

With the server back on line…

Things seem to be getting back to normal.

To ensure that this situation never happens again I have leased another (far smaller) server and will be installing a new emergency website on it.

This site will probably be called FocusRatings.net and won’t actually do anything apart from the following…

At the top of the main page there will be a message box which will detail any information that I might want to pass onto you.

Below this will be current status messages for each of my service.

Behind the scenes there will be a database of email addresses so that I can contact you to let you know what is going on.

I’ll explain in more detail once it is all in place – that way I can display screenshots.

This new site will automatically create the ratings in parallel to the normal ratings so, if I have server problems again, at least I’ll be able to send out the ratings/selections from the new standby server.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/07/01

June 8, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-06-08

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After another day of number crunching…

I have just one more step before creating a new spreadsheet with the last six and a half year’s data.

As a result of some changes to Betfair (or the way they distribute their results) I am missing a big chunk of Win and Place Betfair starting prices.

Today I shall be running a script to import these missing BSPs.

In addition, I shall be adding a new script to be run daily – this will ensure that the BSPs are updated every day.

Then I will be able to cut a new and definitive spreadsheet to support the quest to find one race a day where we can have a win bet, two or three place bets and a few Lay bets…

All on the same race.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-06-08

June 7, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/06/07

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Now that the Bank Holiday weekend is over…

I can get back to analysing the Lay Bet section of the R10 Bet The Race spreadsheet.

It is apparent that there is little to gain from Lay Betting the higher rated horses as the returns are so little and the risks too high.

Today I shall be analysing the performance based on forecast prices.

This should provide a filter that can be used to identify the ranges of safe Lay Bets.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/06/07

June 4, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/06/04

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I apologise for no Morning News yesterday – somehow I overslept.

Before I start explaining the R10 Bet the Race spreadsheet (so far I haven’t come up with a better name) I ought to mention that, over here is a Bank Holiday and I have plans and , thus, there will be no Morning News.

So, onto the spreadsheet.

This is available at… R11_V1.xlsx

1). The first tab is the raw data – every R10 rated race (all runners in that race) from 2016/01/01 to 2022/05/24

2). The second tab shows just those top 3 rated horses for that period. What interest me is just how many top rated horses (coloured in green – column N – R4s) actually win the race (coloured in green – column S – Result) as below…

2022-06-04--1654311765_476x381_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 2022/06/04

June 2, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/06/02

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I don’t believe it!

579777fd2400002700b3318a

Just 2 weeks after splashing out on an all bells and whistles router to improve my internet access…

My village lost internet access for 7 hours yesterday.

The last time this happened it took 4 days to fix the problem so I spent most of those 7 hours rather worried, to say the least.

Luckily, I was up early and had got the selections and so forth out early but it was still rather worrying.

Obviously, not being able to get online did hinder my work but…

I did manage to update the spreadsheet that I’ve been working on.

This is available at… R11_V1.xlsx

It should be fairly self explanatory but I will provide a walk through tomorrow morning.

This is just a discussion spreadsheet but it does show that there are many opportunities to have 8 or 9 bets on a single race for certain race types.

More explanation tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/06/02

June 1, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/06/01

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Yesterday I cut a new spreadsheet that shows every R10 rated race over the last six and a half years.

The difference to this spreadsheet is that it shows every horse in each race.

I spent all day sanitising the spreadsheet;

This means taking out all the abandoned races and the invalid races (those that only have 2 top 3 rated races.

This still leaves over 7,000 races over the six and a half year period.

I am up to October 2021 so there’s only about 2 or 3 hours work left to do.

What stands out so far is just how many R10 rated races are won by a top three rated horse.

I am going to crack on and should have some meaningful numbers tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/06/01

May 31, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/31

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I have realised that…

In order to choose one race a day that we can use the R10 ratings to give us multiple bets on a single race, I’ll probably have to choose suitable race types.

So, yesterday, in order to give me some clues I took a look at R10 rated races with 5 to 8 runners.

I used six and a half years of data which gives me a pretty decent data sample.

I found (to my surprise) that there are a number of race types which, over the last six and a half years have always been won by an R10 top three rated horse.

Now, this gives us some options…

1). For those race type we could just Dutch the top three rated horses knowing that the winner will (or, rather, has historically) come from one of them.

2). We could Lay Bet the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th rated horses as we know that, historically, they have never won that race type.

Or, we could do a combination of the two.

Interestingly, for some of those race types, the winner has always been the top rated horse.

Now, I am still working my way though things (and, to a certain extent, feeling my way as I go) but, today, I shall cut a new spreadsheet showing all R10 rated races with 5 runners or more over the same six and a half year period.

This will give me a full data set to work with.

I’ll report on my findings tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/31

May 30, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/30

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Although I didn’t get much work done over the weekend…

I have cut a number of spreadsheets and have started making progress on them.

The whole concept that I am investigating is as follows…

For the Focus Ratings R10 rated races, I want to be able to pick the best one of the day.

Now, at this point I don’t know how to do it but, going through the spreadsheets, I am getting some ideas.

So, for the sake of argument let’s choose an 8 runner non-handicap Novice Hurdle.

I am choosing that race as we have a 55% strike rate (and you’ll see why that is important) for the top rated horse in that race type.

So, the obvious thing to do is to Win Bet the top rated horse.

We might as well Place Bet it as well, just for safety’s sake.

We should also Place Bet the 2nd rated and 3rd rated horse.

Then we should Lay Bet the 4th rated horse.

But, hey ho, if we Lay Bet the 4th rated horse, why not Lay Bet the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th rated horses as well.

Now, there may be some filters (forecast price is the obvious one) but…

Just say the 4th rated horse wins the race (and in 8 runner Novice Hurdles that almost never happens) then we still get 4 time 0.98 BSP returns from the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th rated horses who, obviously, can’t win the race as the 4th rated horse has done so itself.

Anyway, that is the theory.

I have split the races into 4 groups – 5 to 7 runners, 8 to 15 runners, 16 runners plus (non-handicap) and 16 runners plus (handicap.)

I’m not sure, at this point, which group is going to give the best results but, by working through the spreadsheets, I should get the answer.

The whole idea is to allow Focus Ratings members the ability to select one or two R10 rated races a day (according to the rules that I shall publish) where we can bet the whole race rather than having just a single bet on just one horse. Precision Betting members will get the selections automatically.

I have never heard of a strategy like this but, it sort of happens in derivatives and equities trading – if IBM bring out a new mainframe and you think that, as a result, IBM’s share price is going to rise, you might buy IBM shares but, at the same time, short Hewlett Packard shares.

Now, there might be a good reason why this strategy isn’t used but, in the example used above, the top rated horse has a 55% strike rate so, the remaining 7 horses share a 45% chance of winning. If you are laying the 5 lowest rated of those horses then you should stand a pretty good chance. In an ideal outcome you would have 9 winning bets from an 8 horse race.

Now that I am taking long walks every day (to help me with my sleep problems) I have plenty of time to think about how this should work.

I’ll keep you updated and, once I’ve got a comprehensible spreadsheet, I’ll publish a link to it.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/30

May 27, 2022 - 2022/05/26

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

As yesterday was a bank holiday over here…

Not very much work got done for me.

Today I shall continue with the investigation into maximise the number of bets per race for the Focus Ratings R10 ratings.

Read More about 2022/05/26

May 25, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/25

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Well, with my new router installed…

I should finally be able to catch up on some of the backlog of work.

To satisfy my interest I am going to run a script to generate a list for Focus Ratings R10 rated races where every horse in the race is rated and both Focus Ratings and Advance Ratings agree on the ranking of every horse in the race.

I suspect that there may only be one or two of these a week and that most of them will have between 5 to 8 runners.

By reviewing the results I may find there is an additional strategy for Precision Betting; one with more betting options.

In any case, the results will be interesting, even if only to me.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/25

May 24, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/24

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

My new router finally arrived yesterday and…

For the first time in my life,

I actually sat down and read the manual before unpacking the beast.

I know that that’s not a very manly thing to do but I now, as a result, have a far better understanding of how to get it to work with my firewall.

It is going to be installed today so there will be a period of time when I’ll be offline.

It will be so nice to have reliable internet connectivity once more.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/24

May 23, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-05-23

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I do apologise for my slight absence towards the end of last week.

I am still waiting for the delivery of my new router and, until it arrives, my internet connection is iffy to say the least

I don’t know if it is due to Covid 19 or the war in Ukraine (or somehow all Boris Johnson’s fault) but…

Amazon deliveries that used to take 48 hours now seem to take 7 to 10 days.

On another point…

Last week was, to say the least, a challenging one for the R10/Precision Betting selections however,

We did end up 8.8557 points in profits and…

8 points a week equals 32 points a week which should deliver the 400 points a year the the strategy expects.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-05-23

May 18, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/18

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Overall, a very good day, yesterday.

When I first started Focus Ratings (upon which, most of my services are based) 9 years ago, we had a strike rate of 25% for our top rated horse.

As Focus Ratings is self-learning, the strike rate (for the top rated horse) improves by about 5% every year.

The first thing I check when I get up is the strike rate for the top rated horse; yesterday it was 35.71% which, obviously, means that the services that rely on Focus Ratings (such as Investment Betting, Precision Betting and so forth) were always going to do well.

And they did.

My changes to the overnight script seem to be working well and I’m sort of in control of when the various services start and get published – long may it last.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/18

May 17, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/17

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

The changes to the overnight scripts seems to have worked well and, as a result, will give me an extra couple of working hours a day, all going well.

However, even though I’ve moved my router to a cooler part of the room, it is still dying four or five times a day.

Thus, I’ve had to order a new one.

The current one is about 9 years old so it’s done pretty well but I do really have an aversion to spending money.

Still need must and without a reliable internet connection I’m pretty much stuffed.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/17

May 16, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/16

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Over the last few days I have been editing the overnight scripts that produce the first part of the ratings, do the backups and update the system database.

As a results, from tomorrow, the ratings (and other services) should be coming out earlier than usual.

The main aim is to create more time for me.

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I have started taking long walks every day and…

As a result, am now sleeping 8 hours a night rather than the normal 4 hours.

This is very good for me but it does mean that my day starts 4 hours later.

Also, I lose 3 hours from my working day due to the long walk.

By adjusting the times of the overnight scripts I can free up some more time for me to get things done.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/16

May 10, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/10

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After a hard day’s work…

I have pretty much got the blank Annuity System Staking Plan spreadsheet finished.

Today I am going to have a go a producing a video to walk through updating the spreadsheet.

That might be interesting as I haven’t done a video for years.

I have a feeling that it might be slightly character building…

With, possibly, some swear words involved.

I shall be using the R10 selections as the raw data but you may use the spreadsheet for any system or strategy that you use.

If you are interested in the strategy behind these selections, there are some articles that you might be interested in at… Articles

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 PDF and the Crib Sheet so they can work out the selections themselves but, some of you have asked for an automated solution so, as promised…

If you are a Focus Ratings member and would like the selections emailed to you every day, I can give you a secret link to a low cost option for this.

If you are not a Focus Ratings member but wish to get the selections emailed to you, this is the link to the sign up page… Join

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/10

May 9, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/09

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After a nice weekend off…

I am now back to work, fully refreshed.

Today I shall create an empty spreadsheet for those of you who wish to use the Annuity Staking Plan for your own purposes.

I shall include all the formulas and equations that you can copy and paste into every month end.

The hardest thing, I guess, will be to explain how to use it.

Once you get used to it, it is easy but…

Explaining how to use it might be a challenge for me.

I shall use the new R10 selections as working data but, once again, you mac use any system or strategy as long as it has a reasonably high strike rate.

If you are interested in the strategy behind these selections, there are some articles that you might be interested in at… Articles

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 PDF and the Crib Sheet so they can work out the selections themselves but, some of you have asked for an automated solution so, as promised…

If you are a Focus Ratings member and would like the selections emailed to you every day, I can give you a secret link to a low cost option for this.

If you are not a Focus Ratings member but wish to get the selections emailed to you, this is the link to the sign up page… Join

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/09

May 4, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/04

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Once again, only 1 out of 2 for the new R10 selections yesterday.

However, we should expect the short losing spells as much as we anticipate the longer winning runs.

I am hoping to finish my explanation of the Annuity System Staking Plan today.

If you are interested in the strategy behind these selections, there are some articles that you might be interested in at… Articles

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 PDF and the Crib Sheet so they can work out the selections themselves but, some of you have asked for an automated solution so, as promised…

If you are a Focus Ratings member and would like the selections emailed to you every day, I can give you a secret link to a low cost option for this.

If you are not a Focus Ratings member but wish to get the selections emailed to you, this is the link to the sign up page… Join

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/04

May 3, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/03

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Only 1 out of 2 for the new R10 selections yesterday.

However, even when we have a losing day, I like to console myself with a quick peek at the Results page, which seems to cheer me up a bit.

2022-05-03--1651555174_898x529_scrot

Today I shall be carrying on with my explanation of the Annuity System Staking Plane.

Although the plan seems very simple to me, actually explaining it seems to quite difficult.

The aim is to provide a blank spreadsheet with all the instruction for its usage.

The Annuity Plan can be used with any system, not just the R10 selections.

I also need to try and explain the philosophy behind the plan; that as well as growing your bank, it is nice to take out regular profits along the way.

Hopefully I shall get this finished today.

If you are interested in the strategy behind these selections, there are some articles that you might be interested in at… Articles

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 PDF and the Crib Sheet so they can work out the selections themselves but, some of you have asked for an automated solution so, as promised…

If you are a Focus Ratings member and would like the selections emailed to you every day, I can give you a secret link to a low cost option for this.

If you are not a Focus Ratings member but wish to get the selections emailed to you, this is the link to the sign up page… Join

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/03

May 2, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/05/02

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

A decent enough start to May for the new Focus Ratings R10 strategy.

We had 2 selections yesterday…

Sligo – 14:15 – Amanirenas (3L1) – Lay Bet – NR

Hamilton – 15:47 – Heights Of Aran (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 2.21 (1.1858 points)

I have just started the End Of Month Report – it only has 2 weeks of selections as I can only report on what I have actually independently proofed but it looks good.

For me it’s not so much the profit on stakes that matters; I’m far more concerned about profit on bank.

April_2022

As you can see, we started out with a £500 and, 14 days later, we still have our £500 but have taken out £193.09 in profits – try getting that from the Bradford and Bingley.

I know that the graph is a bit Sawtooth but that is to be expected with only 14 days data – with more data the graph would smooth out.

Today I shall be writing a post about the Annuity Staking System.

It will be a walk through to show exactly how to do the month end reconciliations.

This is not specific to the new Focus Ratings R10 selections, you can use it for any service but…

It does work best for systems that give a 50% or better strike rate.

The R10 selections have, historically, produced a 66% strike rate.

If you are interested in the strategy behind these selections, there are some articles that you might be interested in at… Articles

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 PDF and the Crib Sheet so they can work out the selections themselves but, some of you have asked for an automated solution so, as promised…

If you are a Focus Ratings member and would like the selections emailed to you every day, I can give you a secret link to a low cost option for this.

If you are not a Focus Ratings member but wish to get the selections emailed to you, this is the link to the sign up page… Join

Read More about Morning News – 2022/05/02

April 30, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/30

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Another good day for the New Focus Ratings R10 selections, yesterday.

We had 3 selections…

Goodwood – 13:30 -Dawn Of Liberation (2W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 12.50

Newcastle – 18:10 – Ghost Rider (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd

Punchestown – 19:10 – El Fabiolo (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 1.69 BSP

I have added a Results Page to the site – you may visit it here… Results Page

The last couple of days seem to have been good to us…

2022-04-30--1651288125_1003x383_scrot

If you are interested in the strategy behind these selections, there are some articles that you might be interested in at… Articles

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 PDF and the Crib Sheet so they can work out the selections themselves but, some of you have asked for an automated solution so, as promised…

If you are a Focus Ratings member and would like the selections emailed to you every day, I can give you a secret link to a low cost option for this.

If you are not a Focus Ratings member but wish to get the selections emailed to you, this is the link to the sign up page… Join

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/30

April 29, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/29

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After a couple of disappointing days for the Focus Ratings R10 selections the compensation happened yesterday.

Redcar – 14:40 – Gemcutter (1W1) – Win Bet – 3rd (-1 pt)

Lingfield – 15:35 – Aphelious (2P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.49 (0.4802 pts)

Redcar – 15:50 – Liangel Hope (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.17 (0.1666 pts)

Redcar – 16:56 – Sweetest Company (2P1) – Place Bet – 2nd (awaiting BSP)

Chepstow – 18:10 – Some Nightmare (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.14 (0.1372 pts)

Chepstow – 18:10 – Some Nightmare (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 1.78 (0.7644 pts)

Because I am still waiting for the place BSP for Sweetest Company I can’t give an accurate profit for the day but it’s clear that we are well in profit.

If you are interested in the strategy behind these selections, there are some articles that you might be interested in at… Articles

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 PDF and the Crib Sheet so they can work out the selections themselves but, some of you have asked for an automated solution so, as promised…

If you are a Focus Ratings member and would like the selections emailed to you every day, I can give you a secret link to a low cost option for this.

If you are not a Focus Ratings member but wish to get the selections emailed to you, this is the link to the sign up page… Join

Last week I did some work to help choose the right monthly takeout percentage for the Annuity Staking Plan.

The image below shows the results for 2016 (it takes me a long time to update the spreadsheet.)

takeouts

As you can see, the less profit that you take out on a monthly basis, the more actual profit you make over the year.

However, I am wondering what would happen if, every 3 months, you have a think about things and choose whether to take some of the previous 3 month’s profits to use to increase the bank.

I need to have a think about this today.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/29

April 28, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/28

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After a couple of disappointing days for the Focus Ratings R10 selections I am expecting a compensating good run.

If you are interested in the strategy behind these selections, there are some articles that you might be interested in at… Articles

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 PDF and the Crib Sheet so they can work out the selections themselves but, some of you have asked for an automated solution so, as promised…

If you are a Focus Ratings member and would like the selections emailed to you every day, I can give you a secret link to a low cost option for this.

If you are not a Focus Ratings member but wish to get the selections emailed to you, this is the link to the sign up page… Join

Today I shall be working on getting the recent results (since I started proofing the service) added to a results page on the site.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/28

April 26, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-04-26

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

As far as the Focus Ratings R10 selections yesterday, it was quite difficult for ne…

There were 2 place bets selections on the same race but they were on the 2nd and 3rd rated horses.

Additionally, the race only had 5 runners so only 2 places would be paid.

As it turned out, one of the selections won the race and the place paid 2.14 so, overall, a profit was made – albeit a very small one.

I started proofing the Focus Ratings R10 selections on Saturday 16th; these are the results…

2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Knappers Hill (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.11 BSP
2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Dilligent (2P2) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.37 BSP

Profit on the day – 0.4704 points

2022-04-17 – Plumpton – 14:15 – Theonlywayisessex (3L1) – Lay Bet – 5th @ 0.98
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.14
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1W1) – Win Bet – 2nd

Profit on the day – 0.0976 points

2022-04-18 – Cork – 13:50 – Fancy A Cosmo (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Luttrel Lad (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.01
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Charlies Glance (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Supreme Gift (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd @ 1.27
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Give Me A Cuddle (2W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 5.30

Profit on the day – 4.4884 points

2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:20 – Monbeg Chit Chat (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:55 – Imperial Merlin (Place Bet) – 1st @ 1.05
2022-04-19 – Yarmouth – 17:10 – Lethal Levi (Win Bet) – 1st @ 4.21 BSP
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Kimberley Eve (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Pebbly Lunar Baby – (win Bet) PU

Profit on the day – 3.1948 points

2022-04-20 – Perth – 13:50 – Haribo Collenges (3L1) – Lay Bet – 6th (0.98 points)
2022-04-20 – Salisbury – 16:25 – Democracy Dilema (2P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 2.24 BSP
2022-04-20 – Salisbury – 16:25 – Democracy Dilema (2W1) – Win Bet – 2nd (-1 points)
2022-04-20 – Catterick – 16:30 – Wizard D’Amour (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.42 BSP
2022-04-20 – Catterick – 16:30 – Jill Rose (3L1) – Lay Bet – 9th (0.98 points)

Profit on the day – 3.5668 points

2022-04-21 – Kilbeggan – 16:15 – Faron (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.80 BSP
2022-04-21 – Kilbeggan – 16:45 – Sizing Mauritious (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.33 BSP
2022-04-21 – Tipperary – 19:30 – Raadobarg – (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.03 BSP

Profit on the day – 2.1168

2022-04-22 – Sandown – 15:35 – Goldspur (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd
2022-04-22 – Southwell – 16:35 – Clear The Runway (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.16
2022-04-22 – Southwell – 16:35 – Away At Dawn – (2P1) – Place Bet – F
2022-04-22 – Southwell – 16:35 – Away At Dawn (2W1) – Win Bet – F

2022-04-22 – Chepstow – 16:45 – La Renommee (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.25
2022-04-22 – Chepstow – 16:45 – Herewegohoney (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 2.17
2022-04-22 – Chepstow – 19:20 – Lessankan (2W1) – Win Bet – 3rd

Profit on the day – -(minus) 1.4516

2022-04-23 – Wolverhampton – 17:45 – Soyounique (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.69
2022-04-23 – Wolverhampton – 17:45 – Soyounique (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 4.25
2022-04-23 – Wolverhampton – 20:20 – Warm Smile (2P1) – Place Bet – 3rd

Profit on the day – 2.8612

2022-04-25 – 13:35 – Sassi Neri (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 2.14
2022-04-25 – 13:35 – Glorious Romance (3P1) – Place Bet – 4th

Profit on the day – 0.1172

Out of the 35 selections, 4 were non-runners.

From the remaining 31 selections, we had 23 successful bets.

That equates to a strike rate of 74.19%

We have had one losing day out of the last ten days.

I am still working on the Annuity Staking System spreadsheet to test the effects of different monthly profit takeouts.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-04-26

April 25, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/25

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

There were no Focus Ratings R10 selections yesterday but…

We did get two out of three on Saturday.

I started proofing the Focus Ratings R10 selections on Saturday 16th; these are the results…

2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Knappers Hill (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.11 BSP
2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Dilligent (2P2) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.37 BSP

Profit on the day – 0.4704 points

2022-04-17 – Plumpton – 14:15 – Theonlywayisessex (3L1) – Lay Bet – 5th @ 0.98
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.14
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1W1) – Win Bet – 2nd

Profit on the day – 0.0976 points

2022-04-18 – Cork – 13:50 – Fancy A Cosmo (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Luttrel Lad (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.01
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Charlies Glance (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Supreme Gift (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd @ 1.27
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Give Me A Cuddle (2W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 5.30

Profit on the day – 4.4884 points

2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:20 – Monbeg Chit Chat (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:55 – Imperial Merlin (Place Bet) – 1st @ 1.05
2022-04-19 – Yarmouth – 17:10 – Lethal Levi (Win Bet) – 1st @ 4.21 BSP
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Kimberley Eve (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Pebbly Lunar Baby – (win Bet) PU

Profit on the day – 3.1948 points

2022-04-20 – Perth – 13:50 – Haribo Collenges (3L1) – Lay Bet – 6th (0.98 points)
2022-04-20 – Salisbury – 16:25 – Democracy Dilema (2P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 2.24 BSP
2022-04-20 – Salisbury – 16:25 – Democracy Dilema (2W1) – Win Bet – 2nd (-1 points)
2022-04-20 – Catterick – 16:30 – Wizard D’Amour (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.42 BSP
2022-04-20 – Catterick – 16:30 – Jill Rose (3L1) – Lay Bet – 9th (0.98 points)

Profit on the day – 3.5668 points

2022-04-21 – Kilbeggan – 16:15 – Faron (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.80 BSP
2022-04-21 – Kilbeggan – 16:45 – Sizing Mauritious (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.33 BSP
2022-04-21 – Tipperary – 19:30 – Raadobarg – (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.03 BSP

Profit on the day – 2.1168

2022-04-22 – Sandown – 15:35 – Goldspur (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd
2022-04-22 – Southwell – 16:35 – Clear The Runway (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.16
2022-04-22 – Southwell – 16:35 – Away At Dawn – (2P1) – Place Bet – F
2022-04-22 – Southwell – 16:35 – Away At Dawn (2W1) – Win Bet – F

2022-04-22 – Chepstow – 16:45 – La Renommee (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.25
2022-04-22 – Chepstow – 16:45 – Herewegohoney (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 2.17
2022-04-22 – Chepstow – 19:20 – Lessankan (2W1) – Win Bet – 3rd

Profit on the day – -(minus) 1.4516

2022-04-23 – Wolverhampton – 17:45 – Soyounique (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.69
2022-04-23 – Wolverhampton – 17:45 – Soyounique (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 4.25
2022-04-23 – Wolverhampton – 20:20 – Warm Smile (2P1) – Place Bet – 3rd

Profit on the day – 2.8612

Out of the 23 selections, 4 were non-runners.

From the remaining 19 selections, we had 16 successful bets.

That equates to a strike rate of 84.21%

I am still working on the Annuity Staking System spreadsheet to test the effects of different monthly profit takeouts.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/25

April 22, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/22

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Another good day for the new Focus Ratings R10 selections…

There were 3 selections and all 3 were successful – I can’t really do better than that.

I started proofing the Focus Ratings R10 selections on Saturday; these are the results…

2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Knappers Hill (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.11 BSP
2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Dilligent (2P2) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.37 BSP

Profit on the day – 0.4704 points

2022-04-17 – Plumpton – 14:15 – Theonlywayisessex (3L1) – Lay Bet – 5th @ 0.98
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.14
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1W1) – Win Bet – 2nd

Profit on the day – 0.0976 points

2022-04-18 – Cork – 13:50 – Fancy A Cosmo (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Luttrel Lad (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.01
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Charlies Glance (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Supreme Gift (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd @ 1.27
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Give Me A Cuddle (2W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 5.30

Profit on the day – 4.4884 points

2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:20 – Monbeg Chit Chat (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:55 – Imperial Merlin (Place Bet) – 1st @ 1.05
2022-04-19 – Yarmouth – 17:10 – Lethal Levi (Win Bet) – 1st @ 4.21 BSP
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Kimberley Eve (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Pebbly Lunar Baby – (win Bet) PU

Profit on the day – 3.1948 points

2022-04-20 – Perth – 13:50 – Haribo Collenges (3L1) – Lay Bet – 6th (0.98 points)
2022-04-20 – Salisbury – 16:25 – Democracy Dilema (2P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 2.24 BSP
2022-04-20 – Salisbury – 16:25 – Democracy Dilema (2W1) – Win Bet – 2nd (-1 points)
2022-04-20 – Catterick – 16:30 – Wizard D’Amour (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.42 BSP
2022-04-20 – Catterick – 16:30 – Jill Rose (3L1) – Lay Bet – 9th (0.98 points)

Profit on the day – 3.5668 points

2022-04-21 – Kilbeggan – 16:15 – Faron (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.80 BSP
2022-04-21 – Kilbeggan – 16:45 – Sizing Mauritious (2P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.33 BSP
2022-04-21 – Tipperary – 19:30 – Raadobarg – (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.03 BSP

Profit on the day – 2.1168

Out of the 23 selections, 4 were non-runners.

From the remaining 19 selections, we had 16 successful bets.

That equates to a strike rate of 84.21%

I am still working on the Annuity Staking System spreadsheet to test the effects of different monthly profit takeouts.

As an example, if you were to take out 100% of your profits every month you get results like these…

January 2016 – Start with £500 bank
February 2016 – Reset bank to £500 and take out £456.44 in profits
March 2016 – Reset bank to £500 and take out £174.42 in profits
April 2016 – Reset bank to £500 and take out £88.22 in profits
May 2016 – Reset bank to £500 and take out £242.95 in profits

And so on…

It’s a bit like putting £500 in the Bradford and Bingley and getting an average of £240 back every month in interest.

I need myself a building society like that!

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/22

April 21, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/21

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I am still working through the Annuity Staking Plan for the Focus Ratings R10 selections – it’s important that I get it right but it will allow people to select the right plan according to their individual Risk Tolerances.

A good day for the selections yesterday with 4 of the 5 selections being successful.

I started proofing the Focus Ratings R10 selections on Saturday; these are the results…

2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Knappers Hill (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.11 BSP
2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Dilligent (2P2) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.37 BSP

Profit on the day – 0.4704 points

2022-04-17 – Plumpton – 14:15 – Theonlywayisessex (3L1) – Lay Bet – 5th @ 0.98
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.14
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1W1) – Win Bet – 2nd

Profit on the day – 0.0976 points

2022-04-18 – Cork – 13:50 – Fancy A Cosmo (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Luttrel Lad (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.01
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Charlies Glance (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Supreme Gift (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd @ 1.27
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Give Me A Cuddle (2W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 5.30

Profit on the day – 4.4884 points

2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:20 – Monbeg Chit Chat (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:55 – Imperial Merlin (Place Bet) – 1st @ 1.05
2022-04-19 – Yarmouth – 17:10 – Lethal Levi (Win Bet) – 1st @ 4.21 BSP
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Kimberley Eve (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Pebbly Lunar Baby – (win Bet) PU

Profit on the day – 3.1948 points

2022-04-20 – Perth – 13:50 – Haribo Collenges (3L1) – Lay Bet – 6th (0.98 points)
2022-04-20 – Salisbury – 16:25 – Democracy Dilema (2P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 2.24 BSP
2022-04-20 – Salisbury – 16:25 – Democracy Dilema (2W1) – Win Bet – 2nd (-1 points)
2022-04-20 – Catterick – 16:30 – Wizard D’Amour (1W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.42 BSP
2022-04-20 – Catterick – 16:30 – Jill Rose (3L1) – Lay Bet – 9th (0.98 points)

Profit on the day – 3.5668 points

Out of the 20 selections, 4 were non-runners.

From the remaining 16 selections, we had 13 successful bets.

That equates to a strike rate of 81.25%

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/21

April 20, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/20

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Today I shall largely be working on options for the Annuity Plan for staking the Focus Ratings R10 selections.

I am assuming that, at the end of every month, we take out 80% of that month’s profits and increase the bank (and, thus, the stakes) by the remainder.

However, following a discussion with a member who is interested in the strategy, I have decided to use the 6 years of historical data and cut a new spreadsheet which shows the effects of the Annuity Staking Plan at different percentage monthly takeouts (such as 70%, 90% etc.)

This will allow people to select the right plan according to their individual Risk Tolerances.

I started proofing the Focus Ratings R10 selections on Saturday; these are the results…

2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Knappers Hill (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.11 BSP
2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Dilligent (2P2) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.37 BSP

Profit on the day – 0.4704 points

2022-04-17 – Plumpton – 14:15 – Theonlywayisessex (3L1) – Lay Bet – 5th @ 0.98
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.14
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1W1) – Win Bet – 2nd

Profit on the day – 0.0976 points

2022-04-18 – Cork – 13:50 – Fancy A Cosmo (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Luttrel Lad (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.01
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Charlies Glance (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Supreme Gift (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd @ 1.27
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Give Me A Cuddle (2W1) – Win Bet – 1st @ 5.30

Profit on the day – 4.4884 points

2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:20 – Monbeg Chit Chat (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Sedgefield – 16:55 – Imperial Merlin (Place Bet) – 1st @ 1.05
2022-04-19 – Yarmouth – 17:10 – Lethal Levi (Win Bet) – 1st @ 4.21 BSP
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Kimberley Eve (Place Bet) – NR
2022-04-19 – Worcester – 17:50 – Pebbly Lunar Baby – (win Bet) PU

Profit on the day – 3.1948 points

Out of the 15 selections, 4 were non-runners.

From the remaining 11 selections, we had 9 successful bets.

That equates to a strike rate of 81.81%

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/20

April 19, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/19

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Timeform seems to be having some problems at the moment with the reporting of Betfair prices.

It seems to be running 1 day behind.

I’m not sure if this is just an Easter problem or whether it is a long term thing.

This kind of makes it difficult for me (and Racing Index) to report prices the day after the race.

Anyway…

I started proofing the Focus Ratings R10 selections on Saturday; these are the results…

2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Knappers Hill (1P1) – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.11 BSP
2022-04-16 – Newton Abbot – 12:30 – Dilligent (2P2) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.37 BSP

2022-04-17 – Plumpton – 14:15 – Theonlywayisessex (3L1) – Lay Bet – 5th @ 0.98
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.14
2022-04-17 – Newbury – 15:56 – Hafit (1W1) – Win Bet – 2nd

2022-04-18 – Cork – 13:50 – Fancy A Cosmo (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Luttrel Lad (1P1) – Place Bet – 2nd (Place Win – awaiting BSP)
2022-04-18 – Chepstow – 14:00 – Charlies Glance (2P1) – Place Bet – NR
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Supreme Gift (1P1) – Place Bet – 3rd (Place Win – awaiting BSP)
2022-04-18 – Huntingdon – 17:25 – Give Me A Cuddle (2W1) – Win Bet – 1st (4.33 ISP -awaiting BSP)

Out of the 10 selections, 2 were non-runners.

From the remaining 8 selections, we had 7 successful bets.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/19

April 18, 2022 - Morning News – Easter Sunday Special – 2022/04/17

Good morning… I know that I don’t normally do a Morning News on a Sunday – it’s the one day of the week when I can have a lie in and be a bit lazy but… I wanted to take this chance to wish you all a very happy Easter (and a very happy Easter […]

Read More about Morning News – Easter Sunday Special – 2022/04/17

April 16, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/16

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Yesterday I finished updating the results for the Focus Ratings R10 betting strategy.

I call this The Annuity Plan.

The whole idea is that you start off with a 50 point bank, you bet to level stakes and, at the end of every month, you work out your profit for that month.

You then take out 80% of that month’s profits and increase the next month’s stakes to one fiftieth of the new bank.

You do that every month until the end of the year when you reset the bank to the original bank and start again.

The spreadsheet that shows the selections, the crib sheet and the Annuity Plan is available at… R10_master.xlsx

The important tab is tab 5.

It shows that, with an initial investment of £500, annual takeouts have generated the following amounts…

2016 – £3,133
2017 – £2,725
2018 – £6,945
2019 – £4,525
2020 – £4,357
2021 – £1,610

This equates to an average annual takeout of £3,882 – obviously, the initial £500 bank is still intact.

The lowest the bank ever fell to was in September 2021 where it fell to £367.75 – this suggests that a 50 point bank is about right.

Over the 6 year period there were 7 losing months.

Over the 6 years there have been some standout moments; the one that I had to double check was the 14:00 at Ludlow (2022-02-09) where Not Long Now (our second rated horse) was Place Bet and came 3rd in a 15 runner race – Betfair paid 34.73 for the place.

There were no selections yesterday.

I shall be doing some more work on this strategy over the weekend.

More news on Monday.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/16

April 15, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/15

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I have created a Crib Sheet for using the Focus Ratings R10 rated races for the new strategy. This is available at… R10 Crib Sheet

Although it looks a bit daunting, it took me 2 minutes to get yesterday’s 3 selections from the 3 R10 rated races (so, about a minute per rated race.)

If any of you Focus Ratings members (the only people who have access to the R10 ratings) want me to double check your own selections (using the Crib Sheet, whilst you are getting used to it), just email me your selections and I’ll check them for you.

Yesterday I started work on a staking system for the Focus Ratings R10 betting strategy.

I call this The Annuity Plan.

The whole idea is that you start off with a 50 point bank, you bet to level stakes and, at the end of every month, you work out your profit for that month.

You then take out 80% of that month’s profits and increase the next month’s stakes to one fiftieth of the new bank.

You do that every month until the end of the year when you reset the bank to the original bank and start again.

The reason for this is that you may be comfortable betting to £10 stakes but, by increasing your stakes every month, you may end up with £20 stakes which might be outside your comfort zone. This is assuming that you are betting on the Betfair Sportsbook.

I shall also create a new tab which will show the same information but without the annual resets.

The spreadsheet that shows the selections, the crib sheet and the Annuity Plan is available at… R10_master.xlsx

I am still working on the spreadsheet but you can see that…

I started 2016 with a £500 bank and was thus, initially staking to £10 stakes.

As you can see, for 2016 we only had 1 losing month. In September we lost £42.24. At the end of September there was, thus, no takeout and, as we had made a loss on the month, the bank (and thus, the next month’s stakes) have reduced.

At the end of 2016 we have taken out (by the normal monthly takeouts and the end of year reset) £3133.76 – our original bank of £500 is still intact.

This equates to an annual profit of 313 points.

Putting things into more human terms, it’s a bit like putting £500 into a Building Society (possibly the best Building Society in the World!) and, at the end of the year, still having your original £500 in the Building Society but, having received £3133.76 in interest along the way (with only 1 month where the monthly interest cheque didn’t turn up – September 2016.)

I am still working through the spreadsheet but, in 2017 (after resetting the bank back to £500 at the end of the previous year) we had a takeout of £2725.19 and no losing months.

More news tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/15

April 13, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/13

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Yesterday I merged the selections (for the last 6 years) for the 7 systems that I am going to use for betting the Focus Ratings R10 ratings.

1). 1W1 – Win betting the top rated horse
2). 1P1 – Place betting the top rated horse
3). 2P1 – Place betting the second rated horse
4). 3L1 – Lay betting the third rated horse (race type)
5). 3L2 – Lay betting the third rated horse (11 runners or more)
6). 3P1 – Place betting the third rated horse
7). 2W1 – Win betting the second rated horse.

R10_50_points

As you can see, using a 50 point bank we make a decent profit over the long run. Assuming no withdrawal of profits, the initial £500 bank rises to £16,998 oevr the six year period (using £10 stakes.)

A quick look at the image shows that we would have had some losing months over the 6 year period but, overall, the recoveries are quick.

The spreadsheet that shows the selections is available at… R10_master.xlsx

Today I shall tidy up the 6 supporting spreadsheets and upload them as well – I’ll be providing the links to these tomorrow.

I shall also take a look at a possible staking plan were 80% of the profits are taken out every month (where the month is profitable) and the remaining 20% used to increase the stakes.

I also need to create a table that shows which bets are applicable for which Focus Ratings R10 rated races.

This will allow Focus Ratings members to produce their own selections; it is fairly easy – yesterday there were only 2 R10 rated races. With a combined reference spreadsheet/PDF it would have taken about 3 minutes to identify any selections.

More news tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/13

April 12, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/12

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I have finally…

Finalised the 7 systems that I am going to use for betting the Focus Ratings R10 ratings.

As I mentioned yesterday, I took a look at Win betting the 2nd rated horse and Place betting the third rated horse.

Both can be bet profitably.

The following are the systems…

1). 1W1 – Win betting the top rated horse

2). 1P1 – Place betting the top rated horse

3). 2P1 – Place betting the second rated horse

4). 3L1 – Lay betting the third rated horse (race type)

5). 3L2 – Lay betting the third rated horse (11 runners or more)

6). 3P1 – Place betting the third rated horse

7). 2W1 – Win betting the second rated horse.

Over the last 6 years, all the systems together produced 5361 selections from which there were 3547 winning selections.

This gives a strike rate of 66%.

This averages out to about 18 selections a week.

The POI (Profit On Investment) is 31%.

Today I shall produce a spreadsheet to show all the selections on one page/tab so that I can do the losing run analysis.

The I shall tidy up the supporting spreadsheets and provide links to them.

I’ll have more to share tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/12

April 11, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/11

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After a good and relaxing weekend off…

I am now back to work to finish the Focus Ratings R10 selections process.

I have done some testing on place betting the top rated horse.

It turns out that (even without any filters) this is blindly profitable.

So, with a few simple filters it should be a good money earner.

I am almost finished but…

At the moment we have a strategy for the following;

1). Win betting the top rated horse.

2). Place betting the top rated horse.

3). Place betting the 2nd rated horse (where there is one.)

4). Laying the 3rd rated horse (where the is one.)

If you are not a Focus Ratings member (and, thus, don’t receive the R10 ratings) you can see what I mean by taking a look at yesterday’s R10 Ratings.

Now, before I close the books on this, I am also going to take a look at Win betting the second rated horse (where there is one) and Place betting the third rated horse (where there is one.)

It seems a bit strange to potentially be Place betting and also Lay betting the third rated horse but, if it works, it might be interesting.

You should expect a bigger update on this tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/11

April 11, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/04/04

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

After a good and relaxing weekend off…

I am now back to work to complete the Focus Ratings R10 selections process.

There is still a lot of work to do but I’ll plow on through it.

It will be worth it in the end as it will allow us to Bet The Race and Not The Horse.

The logic is that, if we think that the top rated horse is going to win it is worth win betting it but also place betting it just in case.

If we think that the top rated horse is going to win then it should be worth place betting the second rated horse.

And, finally, if we are sure that the top two rated horses are contenders, then it it should be worth lay betting the third rated horse.

Thus, we make a maximum potential profit from a single race.

That’s the theory, anyway.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/04/04

March 31, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03.31

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

Well…

Things didn’t go quite as planned yesterday.

However, I did get a lot of work done on the strategies for place betting the second rated horse in Focus Ratings R10 rated races.

The interesting thing is that this is blindly profitable for those selections.

The profits are very small but…

By taking out the unprofitable race types we end up with a 64.9% strike rate and a 21.2% POI.

I will get the spreadsheet finished today and will post a link to it tomorrow.

Then it will be on to looking at place betting the top rated horse and also win betting the top rated horse.

Then I shall merge all the selections together to show what would have happened over the last 6 years and 3 months.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03.31

March 30, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/30

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I apologise for being a bit late with the Morning News today but…

Now that I am getting 8 hours sleep a night (for the first time in 6 years) it;s sort of unavoidable.

My secret is that…

I used to go to my local PMU (read this to find out what a PMU is… Why a PMU ain’t your average bookies) 50 yards away, every morning for a coffee and a croissant – it’s sort of the law over here in France.

Last week the bar closed down for annual holidays and, rather than go to one of the many other bars in the village I decided to walk the 5 miles to a bar in my nearest village.

The 10 mile round trip seemed to tire me out a bit and, as a result, I slept for 8 hours (and good sleep) that night.

So, I have been doing the same ever since.

Personally I believe that it is the 3 hours away from the computers (I have an L shaped desk and am surrounded by 9 screens) and the fresh air and beautiful views that are helping as much as the extra exercise.

Anyway, on to R10.

R10

I have published a new spreadsheet which is available at… http://focusratings.com/R10/R10_3.xlsx

This concerns the possibility of laying the 3rd rated horse (where there is one) in R10 rated races.

I’ll walk you though it.

Tab 1 shows the raw data. This is every R10 rated race (which contains a 3rd rated selection – not all do) since the 1st of January 2016 up until the 28th of March 2022.

Taking the 11 weeks of lockdown in 2020 and the 1 week of no racing due to Equine Flu in 2018 this equates to about 6 years of data.

Tab 2 shows a strategy based upon profitable race types. This gives a strike rate of 94.20% and a POI of 60.17%.

Tab 3 shows the actual selections from that strategy – just look at the amount of green compared to pink – green is good.

Tab 4 shows what happens if you blindly back the 3rd rated horse in races with 11 runners or more. This gives a strike rate of 89.70% and a POI of 24.07%.

Tab 5 shows the selections from both strategies combined.

Tab 5 shows the daily results from the 2 combined strategies. This is primarily for losing run analysis. I am betting to a 20 point bank. Obviously, when we have a losing day it hurts us but, that is normal in a laying system.

The chart shows the growth of the bank (assuming no take outs over the 6 year period.

R10_3

Although the graph is a bit Sawtooth for my liking, this is, once again, quite normal for a laying system.

Having said that, if you look at the period for the 1st of January 2016 to the 29th of January 2019 it is a pretty straight line showing a massive growth.

Overall this combined strategy (for laying the 3rd rated horse in R10 rated races) give the followin statistics over the last 6 years…

Strike Rate = 92.85%
POI = 49.37%

If you look at yesterday’s R10 ratings PDF… http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-R10-2022-03-29-789672.pdf you will see that there were no selections as there were no races with a 3rd rated horse.

Today I shall be doing a similar exercise for Place Betting the 2nd rated horse. The spreadsheet will follow the same pattern.

Additionally, I shall create a new spreadsheet wgich will show the results of laying the third rated horse and place betting the second rated horse combined.

This is starting to look very good to me – I’ll be updating you on a daily basis.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/30

March 29, 2022 - Morning News – 2022.03/29

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

I spent most of yesterday working through the R10 spreadsheets and filling in the missing Betfair prices where appropriate.

I have actually slightly changed the format of the spreadsheets so that they are easier to read and make more sense.

I should have the first of these (laying the 3rd rated horse) finished tomorrow.

It will show each of the four strategies for laying the 3rd rated horse individually and, also, combined.

There will be a graph to show the results since the 1st of January 2016 to yesterday.

Once I have done the same for the strategies for Win Betting the top rated horse, Place Betting the top rated horse and Lay Betting the second rated horse then I will be able to combine the lot to show a graph for that.

As I am going, I am writing the eBook that will explain all of the strategies and, of course…

I am creating the Crib Sheet to make it easy to identify selections.

I should have more news tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022.03/29

March 28, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/28

focus-ratings-morning-newsGood morning…

It seems a long time since the last Morning News.

There is a reason for this…

As some of you know, I have some sleep problems and, as a result, only get 4 hours sleep a night.

This isn’t really enough and restricts the amount of work that I can do on a daily basis.

However, last Monday I stumbled (completely by accident) on a small lifestyle change (no medication involved) and, as a result…

I have been sleeping 8 hours a night since then; high quality sleep as well.

This, however, has sort of changed my morning routine and it has been a struggle to sort out a new one.

Now, I would explain more but it really has nothing to do with the ratings and system selections and anyway…

I would far rather talk about the Focus Ratings R10 ratings.

Focus Ratings R10 Ratings…

As you know, the R10 ratings are the R8 ratings but only for those races where the top rated horse has a confidence of 130% or greater.

Win betting the top rated horse

I have published a spreadsheet to show the opportunities for Win betting the top rated horse in these races; the spreadsheet is available here… http://focusratings.com/docs/R10_top_rated_win.xlsx

This shows a number of strategies, the best of which are shown in tab 9 (5 races a week, a strike rate of 49.74% and a POI of 35.73%) and…

Tab 10 (7 races a week, a 61.79% strike rate and a POI of 70.17%)

Both of those strategies are based on BSP with a commission of 2%.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/28

March 21, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/21

6620418Good morning…

As the weather has been very good…

I spent a lot of the weekend out and about.

This has actually helped me get some perspective on ways to use the new R10 ratings.

I shall be working on these over the coming week but I think that I have a logical way to have multiple bets on selected races from these ratings.

I will update you on a regular basis.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/21

March 18, 2022 - Morning News – 2202/03/18

6620418Good morning…

I have published a new spreadsheet at http://focusratings.com/docs/R10_multi.xlsx

The original spreadsheet shows how to bet on the top rated horse in the R10 ratings.

The new spreadsheet shows how to have multiple bets on those races.

I have to do this race by race and I am doing it in reverse date order.

It is a very slow process and, working backwards, I am up to the 3rd of October 2020

I shall carry on with this work for the next week or so.

2022-03-18--1647580363_650x172_scrot

The interesting columns are…

1rw – top rated win
1rp – top rated place
2rp – second rated place
3rp – third rated place
3rl – third rated lay
1rwp – top rated win profit
1rpp – top rated place profit
2rpp – second rated place profit
3rpp – 3rd rated place profit

The object is to define a strategy where the best race of the day is identified and a number of bets placed on that race.

It is far too early to even think about a strategy but one thing is apparent;

There are profits to be made by place betting the second rated horse.

It appears that you were right all along, Robbie T.

In the 17:50 at Kilbeggan – 2020-10-12, the second rated horse came third at a place price of 6.80 giving a profit of 5.684 points.

I am having to update this spreadsheet manually, race by race but…

That’s actually not a bad way of doing things as I will get a good feel for those races types that we should be looking at.

Read More about Morning News – 2202/03/18

March 17, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/17

6620418Good morning…

Of the 5 R10 races yesterday…

We had 1 Non Runner and 3 top rated winners.

So, a 75% strike rate.

My selection did nothing, being our only losing race, but I’ll keep trying.

Today I am going to keep on working on how to identify the best R10 rated race of the day so that we can have multiple bets on that one race.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/17

March 16, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/16

6620418Good morning…

Even though there were no R10 selections, I did a fair bit more work on the new R10 ratings yesterday.

The spreadsheet is online at… http://focusratings.com/docs/R10_top_rated.xlsx

I am trying to work out how to choose the best race of the day so that I can have multiple bets on it.

Having said that, from today’s 5 R10 rated races they all look good to me so…

Without any real mathematical reasoning (that will come), I would go for Kempton 19:30

That would mean the following bets…

Arousing – Win Bet – 2 points
Arousing – Place Bet – 4 points
Puerta De Vega – Place Bet – 2 points
Tyger Bay – Place Bet – 1 point
Tyger Bay – Lay bet – 1 point

This is almost a guess at the moment but it will be interesting to see if I am on the right track.

I shall report back on the results tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/16

March 15, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/15

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday, Roy (my partner at Intelligent Betting) mentioned that, although he was busy at work, he did notice that a lot of the profits from the new R10 spreadsheet did seem to come from those races where R8 = 2

Let me explain…

For Focus Ratings, the R8 ratings are where the top rated horse for Focus Ratings is also the top rated horse for Advance Ratings (two totally different ratings agencies.)

If the top rated horse on Focus Ratings is also the top rated horse on Advance Ratings then R8 equals 1.

However, if the top rated horse on Focus Ratings is the top rated horse on Advance Ratings but, also, the second rated horse on Focus Ratings is also the second rated horse on Advance Ratings then R8 equals 2…

And so forth.

I did some analysis and came up with this…

R8

As you would expect, as the R8 number increases, the strike rate also increases.

However, most of the profit comes from the races where R8 equals 1 or 2.

And, as we all know, Strike Rate is vanity, it’s profits that count.

So…

I updated the spreadsheet to take a look at what happens if we just look at those races where R8 equals 1 or 2.

I have updated the spreadsheet online at… http://focusratings.com/docs/R10_top_rated.xlsx

The interesting tab is tab 10). Refined 2

This shows a win bet strike rate of 61.72% and a win bet POI of 70.17%

However, once again, my real aim is to somehow identify the best race of the day and then produce multiple bets for that race.

Ideally there would be both a win bet and place bet for the top rated horse. a place bet for the second rated horse and a place bet and lay bet for the third rated horse.

I shall continue working on that, this week.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/15

March 14, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/14

6620418Good morning…

The new link for the R10 Focus Ratings PDF on the daily email seems to be working and…

I have put the spreadsheet with the underlying data online at… http://focusratings.com/docs/R10_top_rated.xlsx

I have done some analysis on the data as you can see on tabs 3, 4 & 6.

Tab 6 shows a set of filters that, historically, has generated win bets at a strike rate and POI of just under 60% each.

However, my real aim is to somehow identify the best race of the day and then produce multiple bets for that race.

Ideally there would be both a win bet and place bet for the top rated horse. a place bet for the second rated horse and a place bet and lay bet for the third rated horse.

I shall be working on that, this week.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/14

March 12, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/12

6620418Good morning…

Today, all being well…

There should be a new link on the Focus Ratings email.

This is for the new R10 ratings.

R10 is basically R8 but only for those races where the top rated horse has a confidence of 130% or greater.

If that works then I’ll produce the underlying spreadsheet of historical data and forward it to anyone who has requested it.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/12

March 11, 2022 - Morning News – 22/03/11

6620418Good morning…

I managed to get a fair bit of work done yesterday and…

The results will soon be available for you.

A lot of yesterday involved moving some of my IT around in order to make my work more efficient.

Today I have got to finish that off and, once done, I may even take a photo so that I can explain what my daily work involves and how I get it done.

Read More about Morning News – 22/03/11

March 10, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/10

6620418Good morning…

A small medical issue has had me off work for the last week or so…

Thus, the lack of Morning News posts over the last 8 days.

However, all is better now and I shall spend the rest of the week catching up with what I have missed out on.

I hope to have the backlog cleared by Monday of next week.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/10

March 1, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/03/01

6620418Good morning…

All going well…

From tomorrow I shall be publishing a new set of ratings that I will call R10.

Actually, they are not so new; they are just R8 ratings but, only for those races where the top rated horse has a confidence of 130% or greater.

These are blindly profitable and, thus, are a great start for any strategies.

I will be using these to continue my work on an AW strategy and, also, a replacement for the R9 Portfolio Selections.

For any of you who are interested…

I shall be producing a spreadsheet with all the R10 races over the last 6 years.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/03/01

February 25, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/25

6620418Good morning…

I have decided to take a break from producing the R9 Portfolio Selections.

We are not getting anywhere with them and I need to have a re-think about this strategy.

I have updated the spreadsheet which is available at… http://focusratings.com/docs/R9-Portfolio-Master.xlsx

What I am looking to do is to identify the best race of the day (in terms of the accuracy of the ratings) and then produce a number of bets on just that one race.

So, we might end up with a win bet on the top rated horse, a place bet on the top rated horse, a place bet on the second rated horse and maybe lay the third rated horse.

The first stage would be to identify the best race (out of an average of 35 races a day) of the day.

The current R9 Portfolio selections take me about an hour a day to produce.

By taking a break from doing this gives me more time to concentrate on other things (like the AW strategy.)

I’ll let you know how I get on with the new R9 strategy.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/25

February 24, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/24

6620418Good morning…

I have almost finished with investigating AW course specialists and AW only horses.

The results are interesting and may prove profitable.

I have a few more ideas to try out and will then publish a new spreadsheet showing 8 or 9 strategies for the R8 ratings for AW racing.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/24

February 23, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/23

6620418Good morning…

I did some more work on the AW strategies yesterday.

What I am now looking at is course specialists and horses that only run on AW rather than those horses who bounce around through hurdles and flat turf as well as the AW.

I should have some more results tomorrow.

We only got 2 out of 3 for the new Place Profits Plus selections.

Navan – 13:45 – Lunar Display – 2nd @ 2.06
Taunton – 13:55 – Lady Adare – 1st @ 1.11
Market Rasen – 14:10 – Ile De Jersey – 3rd

However, we still, even with the losing selection, made a profit on the day.

And that’s the important thing.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/23

February 22, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/22

6620418Good morning…

I did some more work on some potential All Weather strategies yesterday.

The spreadsheet is available at… http://focusratings.com/docs/AllWeather01.xlsx

I now have 5 potential strategies…

1). Course-Distance Win Bets – 1.47 Bets per week – SR = 35.36% – POI = 21.71%
2). Course-Distance Place Bets – 1.91 Bets per week = SR = 68.87% – POI = 13.37%
3). Class & Course Win Bets – 4.88 Bets per week – SR = 32.47% – POI = 10.54%
4). Class & Course Place Bets – 1.23 Bets per week – SR = 63.25% – POI = 12.61%
5). Course & Runners Win Bets – 2.86 Bets per week – SR = 42.33% – POI = 30.24%

I shall keep plugging away at this until I have at least a dozen micro strategies for All Weather betting (based upon the R8 ratings) so that I can pick and chooose the best ones to use.

Not one to crow but…

We had 3 Place Profits Plus selections yesterday.

All 3 of them were successfully placed.

Roy (my partner at Intelligent Betting) did the treble; this is his betting slip…

pp01

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/22

February 21, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/21

6620418Good morning…

This week I shall be talking about some ideas that I have about All Weather betting.

I have a couple of mini strategies worked out that are based on my long term (and we’re talking of at least 5 years) observations that we have an incredibly good strike rate for 5 & 6 furlong races at Kempton, Lingfield and Dundalk.

I’m not sure why this is but 5 years of data doesn’t lie.

Currently we can get 1.5 races a week for win bets over these distances (at these race courses) and 1.9 races a week for place bets over these distances.

I have a couple more ideas that I need to test today and will report on my results tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/21

February 17, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-02-17

6620418Good morning…

Place Profits

I shall be updating the results page of PlaceProfits.com today.

Since I started proofing the selections for the new Place Plus selections (on the 14th of February) we have had 2 selections; both successfully placed.

The spreadsheet that explains the new strategy (a merger of the two previous strategies) is available at http://placeprofits.com/data/place_new.xlsx

One of the things that I am starting to look at is the quality of the win.

As an example, Monday’s selection came second (in an 8 horse race) by a neck.

The horse that came 3rd was two and a half lengths behind it.

So, a quality place for our horse.

What I am hoping to do is identify those race types (or goings) where we do not get a quality result; this will help me to identify losing selections (and, thus, try to avoid them.)

Yesterday’s selection (Hereford – 16:45 – Shomen Uchi) won by nine and a half lengths – thus, a quality win/place.

Since I started recording these selections (although only proofing them from Monday) I have had 8 selections and 8 successfully placed selections.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-02-17

February 14, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/14

6620418Good morning…

Place Profits

I have finished the analysis of the new strategy for Place Profits.

The spreadsheet is available at http://placeprofits.com/data/place_new.xlsx

Over the last week there were 6 selections, all successfully placed.

I have also been looking at individual previous selections to ensure that each one was the logical selection.

This strategy is actually a merger of the existing two strategies that generate the Place Profits selections.

These are the results…

2022-02-14--1644805100_1249x730_scrot

From today, Place Profits members will receive these selections (as well as the selections for the existing strategies) and these will be the selections that I proof to Racing Index.

All Weather Strategies

At the start of last week I mentioned that I have some ideas about using the ratings to profit from All Weather races.

I shall be spending this week working on that and,

Communicating the results to you.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/14

February 9, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/09

6620418Good morning…

Multi Choice

I am giving up on the Multi Choice potential strategy as I can’t find any way to make it work.

The weird thing is that…

For months I have been seeing examples of where a horse gets picked by more than one system, it goes on to win.

But, as soon as I start proofing the strategy, it all goes horribly wrong.

So, I shall keep my eyes on it but I won’t waste your time with it any more.

Place Profits

I was updating the Place Profits results yesterday and, whilst doing so, I noticed something that I really should have noticed a long time ago.

Place Profits has 2 different systems which choose their selections in two different ways.

System 1 just looks at those horses running in 5, 8 and 16 runner (handicaps) races.

System 2 looks at horses which have a confidence level of 130% or greater.

Now, sometime system 1 chooses a horse which system 2 says won’t win.

These often don’t get placed.

So, I cut a spreadsheet to look at what happens if you merge these two systems.

The results are pretty incredible.

The number of selections is reduced to just 1 a day but, I am seeing a 90% strike rate and a 31.34% POI.

I need to do some more work on it today but I should be able to share the spreadsheet tomorrow.

Intelligent Betting

Just to let you know that I have updated the Results page at Intelligent Betting so that it is easier to read and makes more sense.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/09

February 8, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/08

6620418Good morning…

Multi Choice

I am very interested in what happens to any selections that are selected by more than one of the services I produce.

These services are…

Advance Ratings System Selections (AR)
EarlyBird Platinum Selections (EB)
Investment Betting (IB)
Intelligent Betting (IntelBet)
Place Profits (PP)
Portfolio Betting (PB)
Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio (R9)

To try and work out if there is a strategy here, I shall publish the previous day’s selections (and the results) every morning.

This is because I am getting nowhere by trying to do the analysis in a spreadsheet.

These were yesterday’s various system selections.

Carlisle – 12:30 – Git Maker – IB – AR – IntelBet (2) – 1st @ 2.15 BSP
Fontwell – 12:45- Serious Charges – AR – 1st @ 1.42 BSP
Fontwell – 13:15 – Kotmask – PB – IntelBet – R9 (2) – 5th
Fontwell – 14:25 – EB – Dream In The Park – 3rd
Carlisle – 14:45 – Fiadh – AR – 4th
Carlisle – 15:20 – Mackenberg – IntelBet – 1st @ 2.76 BSP
Carlisle – 15:55 – Maid O’Malley – PP – 1st @ 2.13 BSP
Carlisle – 16:25 – Supreme Gift – IB – AR – PP – IntelBet (2) – 6th
Fontwell – 16:40 – Bolsover Bill – AR – 9th
Wolverhampton – 16:55 – Dark Design – AR – PB – R9 (2) – 3rd
Wolverhampton – 17:30 – Say Grace – EB – 1st @ 5.23 BSP
Wolverhampton – 17:30 – Lincoln Dream – AR – 5th
Wolverhampton – 18:30 – Beau Geste – AR – 3rd
Wolverhampton – 19:30 – El Jad – PP – 4th
Wolverhampton – 20:30 – Scarborough Castle – PB – 4th

With the most selections, Supreme Gift (Carlisle – 16:25) would have been our selection.

I shall carry on with this strategy for this week to see if there is any merit with it.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/08

February 8, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/07

6620418Good morning…

Multi Choice

I am very interested in what happens to any selections that are selected by more than one of the services I produce.

These services are…

Advance Ratings System Selections (AR)
EarlyBird Platinum Selections (EB)
Investment Betting (IB)
Intelligent Betting (IntelBet)
Place Profits (PP)
Portfolio Betting (PB)
Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio (R9)

To try and work out if there is a strategy here, I shall publish the previous day’s selections (and the results) every morning.

This is because I am getting nowhere by trying to do the analysis in a spreadsheet.

These were yesterday’s various system selections.

13:20 – Leopardstown – Gaillard Du Mesnil – AR – 3rd
14:05 – Musselburgh – Since Day One – AR – 2nd
14:40 – Musselburgh – Wakool – PB – 2nd
14:50 – Kempton – Tranquil Night – PP – 1st @ 2.34 BSP
15:15 – Musselburgh – Sarasota Star – PP – 7th
15:25 – Kempton – Prince Of Harts – PB – R9 – 6th
15:35 – Leopardstown – Sir Gerhard – AR – 1st @ 1.64 BSP
15:50 – Musselburgh – Pookie Pekan – PB – R9 – 3rd
16:20 – Musselburgh – Diamond State – PB – 2nd
16:40 – Leopardstown – Harmonya Maker – AR – 7th

Yesterday’s selection would have been either Kempton 15:25 Prince Of Harts or Musselburgh – 15:50 – Pookie Pekan.

I shall carry on with this strategy for this week to see if there is any merit with it.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/07

February 1, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/02/01

6620418Good morning…

Multi Choice

I am very interested in what happens to any selections that are selected by more than one of the services I produce.

These services are…

Advance Ratings System Selections (AR)
EarlyBird Platinum Selections (EB)
Investment Betting (IB)
Intelligent Betting (IntelBet)
Place Profits (PP)
Portfolio Betting (PB)
Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio (R9)

To try and work out if there is a strategy here, I shall publish the previous day’s selections (and the results) every morning.

This is because I am getting nowhere by trying to do the analysis in a spreadsheet.

These were yesterday’s various system selections.

Hereford – 13:00 – Black Poppy – AR – 1st @ 1.88 ISP
Punchestown – 13:50 – Doctor Churchill – PB – 2nd
Plumpton – 14:10 – Guguss Collonges – PP – 3rd
Plumpton – 14:40 – Hecouldbetheone – IB – AR – 1st @ 1.22 ISP
Plumpton – 15:10 – Innisfree Lad – AR – 5th
Punchestown – 15:20 – Captain Conby – AR – 1st @ 5.0 ISP
Plumpton – 15:40 – Representing Bob – IntelBet – 2nd
Hereford – 16:00 – Sweet Auburn – AR – PP – IntelBet (2) – 3rd
Plumpton – 16:10 – Hey Bob – PB – R9 (3) – 4th
Punchestown – 16:20 – I Don’t Get It – PB – R9 (3) – 4th
Wolverhampton – 17:30 – Umm Hurair – PP – 1st @ 1.66 ISP

Sweet Auburn (Hereford 16:00) would have been yesterday’s selection.

I shall carry on with this strategy for another week to see if there is any merit with it.

All Weather Betting

A couple of days ago I got an email from one of the members who asked me…

“Do you think that Focus Ratings works better for All Weather racing than the Flat Turf?”

Now, logically, it should. There are no changes in going and there seem to be more Course specialists (due to the fewer number of courses.)

Also, there are some horses that only seem to run on the AW and they seem to perform well.

So, I got all inspired and cut a spreadsheet,

This spreadsheet is available at… AllWeather.xlsx and

My working spreadsheet (the one that I am testing strategies on) is available at… AllWeather01.xlsx and I shall share any ideas I have come up with on a daily basis.

If you look at AllWeather01.xlsx you will see that my primary idea is Place Betting those horses that are the Trainer’s only horse in the meeting and the Jockey’s only ride at the meeting. Colour coding the spreadsheet made these selections stand out.

I do have to warn you that I am missing Betfair prices from the 23rd December 2020. I am manually adding in those missing prices for my analysis but it is easier just to take out any races after that date.

I ought to mention that the raw data set is based on Focus Ratings R8 ratings (and only the top rated horse.)

I should also say that what I am trying to do is to create a selection of micro systems purely based upon AW racing – maybe 12 of them.

Update – 30/01/2022: Over the weekend I came up with some systems; these may be seen on AllWeather01.xlsx

Intelligent Betting

I have updated the January 2022 spreadsheet – intelligent_betting.xlsx

As you can see, during January 2022, to level stakes we have increased the starting bank of £1,000 to a final bank of £1,684.81

2022-02-01--1643685960_713x454_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 2022/02/01

January 31, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/01/31

6620418Good morning…

Multi Choice

Now, a while back, I mentioned that I am very interested in what happens to any selections that are selected by more than one of the services I produce.

These services are…

Advance Ratings System Selections (AR)
EarlyBird Platinum Selections (EB)
Investment Betting (IB)
Intelligent Betting (IntelBet)
Place Profits (PP)
Portfolio Betting (PB)
Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio (R9)

To try and work out if there is a strategy here, I shall publish the previous day’s selections (and the results) every morning.

This is because I am getting nowhere by trying to do the analysis in a spreadsheet.

These were yesterday’s various system selections.

Sedgefield – 12:30 – Betty Baloo – AR – 3rd
Naas – 12:40 – Run Wild Fred – AR – PB (3) – 2nd
Sedgefield – 13:00 – Road Warrior – PB – IntelBet – 2nd
Fontwell – 13:20 – American Gerry – IB – AR – IntelBet – PP – 2nd
Fontwell – 14:20 – En Coeur – PP – 3rd
Sedgefield – 14:30 – PB – Beaten Favs – 7th
Fontwell – 14:50 – Watergrange Jack – IB – EB – 2nd
Sedgefield – 15:00 – Dalkingstown – PB (2) – 3rd
Sedgefield – 16:00 – Set In Stone – IntelBet – 6th
Naas – 16:10 – Santonito – AR – 2nd
Fontwell – 16:20 – Hardy Fella – AR – 1st @ 2.75 ISP (2.76 BSP)

Yesterday’s selection would have been Fontwell – 13:20 – American Gerry which came 2nd.

All Weather Betting

A couple of days ago I got an email from one of the members who asked me…

“Do you think that Focus Ratings works better for All Weather racing than the Flat Turf?”

Now, logically, it should. There are no changes in going and there seem to be more Course specialists (due to the fewer number of courses.)

Also, there are some horses that only seem to run on the AW and they seem to perform well.

So, I got all inspired and cut a spreadsheet,

This spreadsheet is available at… AllWeather.xlsx and

My working spreadsheet (the one that I am testing strategies on) is available at… AllWeather01.xlsx and I shall share any ideas I have come up with on a daily basis.

If you look at AllWeather01.xlsx you will see that my primary idea is Place Betting those horses that are the Trainer’s only horse in the meeting and the Jockey’s only ride at the meeting. Colour coding the spreadsheet made these selections stand out.

I do have to warn you that I am missing Betfair prices from the 23rd December 2020. I am manually adding in those missing prices for my analysis but it is easier just to take out any races after that date.

I ought to mention that the raw data set is based on Focus Ratings R8 ratings (and only the top rated horse.)

I should also say that what I am trying to do is to create a selection of micro systems purely based upon AW racing – maybe 12 of them.

Update – 30/01/2022: Over the weekend I came up with some systems; these may be seen on AllWeather01.xlsx

Intelligent Betting

I have updated the January 2022 spreadsheet – intelligent_betting.xlsx

As you can see, even with 2 losing days over the weekend. to level stakes we have increased the starting bank of £1,000 to £1,724.81

2022-01-31--1643602992_719x493_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 2022/01/31

January 28, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/01/28

6620418Good morning…

Multi Choice

Now, a while back, I mentioned that I am very interested in what happens to any selections that are selected by more than one of the services I produce.

These services are…

Advance Ratings System Selections (AR)
EarlyBird Platinum Selections (EB)
Investment Betting (IB)
Intelligent Betting (IntelBet)
Place Profits (PP)
Portfolio Betting (PB)
Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio (R9)

To try and work out if there is a strategy here, I shall publish the previous day’s selections (and the results) every morning.

This is because I am getting nowhere by trying to do the analysis in a spreadsheet.

These were yesterday’s various system selections.

Wetherby – 13:10 – Graystone – IntelBet – 1st @ 3.45 BSP
Southwell – 13:20 – Symbol Of Light – PB – R9 – 1st @ 1.88 BSP
Wetherby – 14:45 – Lupus Regem – AR – 2nd
Wetherby – 15:15 – Sholokjack – AR – 1st @ 3.40 BSP
Southwell – 16:00 – Percy Willis – IntelBet – 5th
Gowran Park – 16:07 – Douglas Dc – AR – 3rd
Wetherby – 16:17 – Bird On The Wire – AR – PB – 6th
Newcastle – 18:00 – Tommy Taylor – PB (2) – 1st @ 2.19 BSP
Newcastle – 19:00 – Blazing Hot – IB – AR – PP – PB (3) – R9 – 1st @ 4.02 BSP

Obviously the pick of the day would have to be Blazing Hot in the 19:00 at Newcastle, being picked by 5 separate services (and being picked 3 times by Portfolio Betting.)

This is what I am seeing on a daily basis; I have a feeling that maths doesn’t really help here and a subjective approach is need to give a sort of Pick of the Day type selection.

All Weather Betting

A couple of days ago I got an email from one of the members who asked me…

“Do you think that Focus Ratings works better for All Weather racing than the Flat Turf?”

Now, logically, it should. There are no changes in going and there seem to be more Course specialists (due to the fewer number of courses.)

Also, there are some horses that only seem to run on the AW and they seem to perform well.

So, I got all inspired and cut a spreadsheet,

This spreadsheet is available at… AllWeather.xlsx and

My working spreadsheet (the one that I am testing strategies on) is available at… AllWeather01.xlsx and I shall share any ideas I have come up with on a daily basis.

If you look at AllWeather01.xlsx you will see that my primary idea is Place Betting those horses that are the Trainer’s only horse in the meeting and the Jockey’s only ride at the meeting. Colour coding the spreadsheet made these selections stand out.

I do have to warn you that I am missing Betfair prices from the 23rd December 2020. I am manually adding in those missing prices for my analysis but it is easier just to take out any races after that date.

I ought to mention that the raw data set is based on Focus Ratings R8 ratings (and only the top rated horse.)

I should also say that what I am trying to do is to create a selection of micro systems purely based upon AW racing – maybe 12 of them.

Update – 28/01/2022: Yesterday, life seemed to get in the way and I didn’t get any work done on this strategy but I am sort of caught up and hope to be able to put a couple of hours work in today.

Intelligent Betting

A resonable day for the new Intelligent Betting selections yesterday.

Wetherby – 13:10 – Graystone – Win Bet – 1st @ 3.45 BSP

Southwell – 16:00 – Percy Willis – Win Bet – 5th

So, another profitable day.

2022-01-28--1643338785_1326x519_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 2022/01/28

January 28, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-01-27

6620418Good morning…

Multi Choice

Now, a while back, I mentioned that I am very interested in what happens to any selections that are selected by more than one of the services I produce.

These services are…

Advance Ratings System Selections (AR)
EarlyBird Platinum Selections (EB)
Investment Betting (IB)
Intelligent Betting (IntelBet)
Place Profits (PP)
Portfolio Betting (PB)
Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio (R9)

To try and work out if there is a strategy here, I shall publish the previous day’s selections (and the results) every morning.

This is because I am getting nowhere by trying to do the analysis in a spreadsheet.

These were yesterday’s various system selections.

Lingfield – 13:00 – Laura Bullion – AR – 9th
Lingfield – 13:30 – No Flies On Me – PB – 2nd
Lingfield – 14:00 – Criollo – IntelBet – Win Bet – 1st @ 1.91 ISP (2.11 BSP)
Lingfield – 14:00 – Criollo – IntelBet – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.18
Catterick – 14:10 – Soyuothinksoagain – IntelBet – Win Bet – 1st @ 3.25 ISP (3.55 BSP)

Wincanton – 14:20 – Danny Kirwan – AR – 1st @ 1.66 ISP (1.68 BSP)
Lingfield – 14:30 – Krazy Paving – AR – 8th
Catterick – 14:40 – It’s Good To Laugh – IB – AR – 1st @ 1.61 ISP (1.79 BSP)
Wincanton – 14:50 – Luckofthedraw – PP – 5th
Kempton – 15:30 – Dutch Decoy – PB – R9 – 2nd
Wincanton – 15:50 – Aucunrisque – AR – 1st @ 2.50 ISP (2.69 BSP)
Wincanton – 16:20 – Grosvenor Court – IB – AR – 3rd
Kempton – 16:30 – Axel Jacklin – AR – NR
Kempton – 19:00 – Come On Girl – PB (2) – 4th

As you can see, we had 3 races where the selection was selected by more than one service.

One of those won.

Now, this isn’t conclusive and doesn’t really highlight what I am seeing on a daily basis.

So, more research required.

All Weather Betting

A couple of days ago I got an email from one of the members who asked me…

“Do you think that Focus Ratings works better for All Weather racing than the Flat Turf?”

Now, logically, it should. There are no changes in going and there seem to be more Course specialists (due to the fewer number of courses.)

Also, there are some horses that only seem to run on the AW and they seem to perform well.

So, I got all inspired and cut a spreadsheet,

This spreadsheet is available at… AllWeather.xlsx and

My working spreadsheet (the one that I am testing strategies on) is available at… AllWeather01.xlsx and I shall share any ideas I have come up with on a daily basis.

If you look at AllWeather01.xlsx you will see that my primary idea is Place Betting those horses that are the Trainer’s only horse in the meeting and the Jockey’s only ride at the meeting. Colour coding the spreadsheet made these selections stand out.

I do have to warn you that I am missing Betfair prices from the 23rd December 2020. I am manually adding in those missing prices for my analysis but it is easier just to take out any races after that date.

I ought to mention that the raw data set is based on Focus Ratings R8 ratings (and only the top rated horse.)

I should also say that what I am trying to do is to create a selection of micro systems purely based upon AW racing – maybe 12 of them.

Intelligent Betting

Obviously, a slightly good day for the new Intelligent Betting selections yesterday.

3 out of 3 ain’t too bad.

Lingfield – 14:00 – Criollo – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.11 BSP

Lingfield – 14:00 – Criollo – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.18 BSP

Catterick – 14:10 – Soyouthinksoagain – 1st @ 3.55 BSP

Read More about Morning News – 2022-01-27

January 26, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-01/26

6620418Good morning…

I have to admit…

That I am finding it difficult to come up with a cohesive strategy for those times where a horse is selected by more than one selections service.

It’s is quite infuriating as, sometimes a horse is an Advance Ratings System selection and also an Investment Betting selection and it wins but,

Not often enough to be statistically significant.

I am continuing the work but, from today, am going to work backwards; in other words, investigate the previous day’s results to see if I can spot any trends.

It could be that there is something staring me in my face that I’m just not seeing.

Today I shall be doing a re-conciliation of the R9 Portfolio Selections to see how they are bearing up.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-01/26

January 25, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/01/25

6620418Good morning…

One of things that really make my day is when a member uses one of my strategies and has a great day.

The following screenshots are from a member who uses the Intelligent Betting selections…

md1


md2


md3


md4

As you can see, there are many ways to bet these selections and many ways to profit from them.

I know that I’ve been talking a lot about Intelligent Betting recently.

This is largely due to my excitement about the performance since the last tweak to the selection process.

The screenshots above just show how well they have worked.

I will be sending out another email abouyt Intelligent Betting this morning and then get back to BAU (Business As Usual.)

Read More about Morning News – 2022/01/25

January 22, 2022 - Morning News-2022-01-22

6620418Good morning…

Another spectacular day for Intelligent Betting yesterday…

We had 5 selections but one of them was abandoned.

Lingfield – 1:50 – Frero Banbou – Win Bet – 1st @ 3.25 ISP (3.63 BSP)

Lingfield – 15:00 – Fantastikas – Win Bet – 1st @ 3.50 ISP (3.62 BSP)

Market Rasen – 15:15 – Hunny Moon – Win Bet – AB

Lingfield – 15:35 – Metier – Win Bet – 1st @ 3.75 ISP (4.20 BSP)

Lingfield – 15:35 – Metier – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.93 BSP

It’s amazing what a difference a little tweak makes.

Intelligent Betting is now the 3rd highest service independently proofed to Racing Index.

2022-01-22--1642819480_1085x562_scrot

A 51% strike rate and a 51% profit on turnover seems a pretty good deal to me.

You can find out more here… Intelligent Betting

Read More about Morning News-2022-01-22

January 22, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/01/21

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday, I sent out an email to all Intelligent Betting full members.

To be completely transparent, I have decided to reproduce it here so that those of you who might be Intelligent Betting Free members can see what is going on.

Good Morning

Just a quick heads up that, as of this morning, there is another (additional) service on the daily selections email.

Since we made the tweak to the Intelligent Betting selections (on November 18th 2021) we have seen a rise in profitability for the selections but, also, we have noticed that when our selections don’t come first, they very often get placed.

I have done some analysis and have worked out when it is appropriate to place bet the R1 selections (basically, the number of runners is the only additional filter.)

I am calling these bets R2 (Place Bet) selections and I shall be proofing them to Racing Index as well as the normal R1 selections.

Today there is 1 R2 (Place Bet) selection (which, obviously, is also an R1 selection.)

We should expect to get about 6 of these additional bets a week and, historically they have achieved a 79.59% strike rate with a POI (assuming a 2% Betfair commission) of 24.09%

Below are the selections over the last 2 months (since the tweak) to a 20 point bank…

daily-20-point-bank

As you can see, the longest losing run is 6 selections over a 3 day period.

We could, actually, bet to a 10 point bank (although there might be some bottom burping moments.)

Below are the selections to a 10 point bank…

daily-10-point-bank

As you can see, we double the bank (to level stakes) over a 2 month period.

Now, I know that questions will be asked about staking and, whilst I can only report to level stakes, I have taken a look at what happens if you compound your bets (with a daily reconcilliation) to a 10 point bank.

daily-compounded-10-point-bank

As you can see, this nearly triples the bank over a 2 month period.

Obviously, you are under no obligation to use these selections (maybe you don’t like Place Betting) but I felt that I needed to explain both their appearence on the selections PDF and the rational behind them.

My kindest regards

Keith

Yesterday there was one selection;

Ludlow – 15:30 – Another Venture – R2 (Place Bet) – 2nd @ 1.44

So, a good start for us.

The thing about any systematic approach to horse racing is that it has to be constantly reviewed and tweaked.

By adding the tweak that we implemented on the 18th of November 2021 the service (Intelligent Betting) has improved so that it is now the 4th highest service independently proofed to Racing Index.

2022-01-21--1642736450_1105x581_scrot

As you can see, over the last exact month, Intelligent Betting has had a strike rate of 45% and a POT (profit on turnover) of 30.30% to BSP (assuming a 5% commission.)

Read More about Morning News – 2022/01/21

January 18, 2022 - Morning News – 2022/01/18

6620418Good morning…

I have started doing the work looking at historical results where a horse is selected by more than one selection service.

It is slow work but…

So far the results are interesting.

It seems that if a horse is selected by Advance Ratings System Selections, Early Bird Ratings Platinum Selections, R9 Portfolio Selections and Investment Betting Selections…

Then the strike rate is very high.

This seems logical but I do need to go back over the last month to get some actual numbers.

I shall be presenting these over the next few days and then,

Offering a 2 week free trial to anyone interested in the daily selections.

Read More about Morning News – 2022/01/18

January 17, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-01-17

6620418Good morning…

One of the things that I shall be looking at this week…

Is how to use the various services that Focus Ratings members get to produce a portfolio of selections.

So, I shall be looking at the performance of the Early Bird selections, the Investment Betting selections and he new R9 Portfolio selections to see if there any trends,

Specifically if the same horse is selected by all three services.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-01-17

January 12, 2022 - Morning News – 2022-01-12

6620418Good morning…

Today I shall be installing some updates on some of the horse racing websites.

This means that they might be temporarily unavailable at certain points throughout the day.

On other news…

My client work is just about finished and so,

I will have far more time to concentrate on the horse racing stuff.

It’s been a strange Christmas and New Year for me but,

I did take down my Christmas tree on Sunday and am now back to normal duty.

Read More about Morning News – 2022-01-12

January 10, 2022 - Morning News – 10/01/2022

6620418Good morning…

Well…

With a fresh start to the week and,

Most of my other work almost done,

I should be able to concentrate more on the horse racing stuff this week.

I have some admin work to do today (and, possibly tomorrow) but then…

It’ll be on to taking another look at some of the systems that I’ve been working on for the various services.

Read More about Morning News – 10/01/2022

January 6, 2022 - Morning News – 06/01/2022

6620418Good morning…

My client work is coming to an end so…

I should have more time for the horse racing stuff from now on.

Over the Christmas break I did manage to get some work done;

I decided to take a look at Place Betting the top rated horse in 16 runner (plus) handicaps.

By only using races where the top rated horse has a FC price (my forecast) of 3.0 or greater and,

Discarding any 5 or 6 furlong races and…

Using selected race types,

I get about 6 races a week, a strike rate of 53.31% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 21.18%

If anyone wants to take a look at the spreadsheet, just let me know.

Read More about Morning News – 06/01/2022

January 4, 2022 - Morning News – 04/01/2022

6620418Good morning…

Well…

It seems ages since I last did a Morning News.

This wasn’t intended but, one of my clients had an emergency job that I had to work almost literally day and night to complete.

There’s still a bit more work to do but the majority of work has been done.

So, back to concentrating on horse racing stuff for me.

I’ve got a lot of catching up to do but the main project is to complete the Focus Ratings price rise.

Don’t worry, if you are a Focus Ratings member you will always pay the price you signed up at; the price rise only affects new members.

Read More about Morning News – 04/01/2022

December 20, 2021 - Morning News – 20/12/2021

6620418Good morning…

A bout of food poisoning last week caused me to be less communicative than I would normally like to be.

However, just in time for Christmas, all seems to be well now.

I shall be working today, tomorrow and Wednesday and then…

Taking my annual 4 day break over the Christmas period.

Read More about Morning News – 20/12/2021

December 8, 2021 - Morning News – 08/12/2021

6620418Good morning…

The best laid plans of mice and men…

I had good plans for yesterday (as I mentioned yesterday morning) but…

There was a database problem and, as a result, the data for the meeting at Southwell didn’t load.

So, I ended up spending most of the morning trying to get that sorted out.

I eventually fixed the problem and today’s early morning test ratings show ratings for 38 races at today’s 5 meetings.

So, yesterday wasn’t as productive as I would have like.

I’ll need to catch up today.

Read More about Morning News – 08/12/2021

December 7, 2021 - Morning News – 07/12/2021

6620418Good morning…

A Great day for the Advance Ratings system selections yesterday…

4 wins and a second from the 5 selections and,

Some pretty decent prices too.

12.15 – Musselburgh – Thunder Rock – 1st @ 1.20 ISP (1.21 BSP)
12.30 – Ludlow – Overhaugh Street – 1st @ 3.75 ISP (4.22 BSP)
3.00 – Ludlow – Nelsons Rock – 2nd
3.15 – Musselburgh – Diamond State – 1st @ 4.50 ISP (5.10 BSP)
3.30 – Ludlow – Fancy Stuff – 1st @ 5.00 ISP (6.37 BSP)

To answer a few questions…

I should be able to finish the spreadsheet for the Top 3 R8 Rated horses today.

To explain…

1). You look at the Focus Ratings R8 ratings PDF.

2). You only look at the top rated horse for each race.

3). You then pick the 3 top rated horses that, from all the races, have the highest R4 number.

And that’s it.

I need to make the spreadsheet look a bit prettier and test out as few filters;

I know, from experience, that, as soon as I publish the spreadsheet, I shall be asked lots of questions.

I want to try and answer those questions in advance.

Read More about Morning News – 07/12/2021

December 6, 2021 - Morning News – 06/12/2021

6620418Good morning…

During the weekend…

I did some analysis of what happens if a horse is selected by more than one system that is based upon Focus Ratings/Advance Ratings.

It is early days but initial analysis shows a 50% strike rate for those horses.

More importantly, if you take the R9 top rated horse that shows the highest R9 of the day (from all R9 top rated horses) then the strike rate is 66.66%

Now, I need to analyse far more races and this will take some time; I hope to have a spreadsheet to show you later this week.

What is more interesting is the performance of the top 3 top rated (R8 rated races) horses every day.

Just by browsing through the spreadsheet of these horses it seems that, although we have the occasional losing day, we don’t seem to have many losing weeks.

This potential strategy is what I shall be concentrating on today.

Read More about Morning News – 06/12/2021

December 3, 2021 - Morning News – 03/12/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have made a start on looking at the various system selections to see what happens when a number of systems all choose the same horse.

It is going to take a while to get any decent results but it is looking good so far.

I was looking through some old notebooks (I have piles and piles of notebooks as I always write down ideas and suggests – it doesn’t mean that I can ever find them again, though) and found something that I was going to investigate a couple of years ago…

At the time I called it Propensity To Finish.

Obviously, with the onset of Jumps racing there have been more and more horses pulling up or running off;

So, I am going to kill two birds with one stone by checking the performance of horses with a letter in their recent form to see if this should help guide our selection processes.

I can do this whilst going back over the system selections.

And, just to make it more interesting, there is one old strategy that I want to take another look at.

At the same time I shall be looking at the top 3 top rated horses with the highest ratings (R4) of the day.

This used to be profitable and I want to see if it still is.

So, I guess that I’ll be sat in front of a spreadsheet for most of the weekend but, whatever the results are, it should be an interesting exercise.

Read More about Morning News – 03/12/2021

December 2, 2021 - Morning News – 02/12/2021

6620418Good morning…

Whilst I’m still trying to catch up on the backlog of emails (2 power cuts yesterday didn’t help) I am also looking at something that two different people have suggested over the last week or so.

Members of Focus Ratings get access (for free) to a number of services.

They may get the EarlyBird Ratings Platinum selections, the Investment Betting selections, the Advance Ratings system selections, the R9 Portfolio selections and so forth.

I have been asked to see if all these selections could be accumulated and sent out on 1 email.

That would allow us to easily identify those horses that have been selected by multiple services.

Those horses should be a pretty good bet.

I am going to go back over the last 3 months to see if there is a strategy there.

It might be that the selections are staked to the number of points based upon the number of services which have selected those horses or…

And this seems a better idea to me,

The 2 most popular horses (based upon the number if services which have selected them) are used as selections.

Anyway, I will have to do the test spreadsheet manually but I expect to have something to show after the weekend.

Read More about Morning News – 02/12/2021

November 26, 2021 - Morning News – 26/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

It’s going to be a mad rush for me to complete my admin work today and tomorrow as…

Sunday is my day off and, more importantly, Sunday is when, over here in France, we put up our Christmas trees.

This is one of my happiest day’s the year for me and I’ve been looking forward to it for weeks.

On to more important stuff…

Once the Focus Ratings price rise is complete, I shall be looking at creating a package so that Focus Ratings members can have a pick and mix selection of services.

They sort of get that at the moment but I want to show historical statistic for each service so that members can create their own portfolio of services that sort o balance each other.

Once again, I don’t want to brag but…

5 of the top 15 services independently proofed to Racing-Index.com are based upon Focus Ratings.

2021-11-26--1637897645_677x922_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 26/11/2021

November 26, 2021 - Morning News – 25/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

Things seem to be coming together with my new CRM system.

Yesterday, I had all my work done and dusted by lunchtime and was able to take the afternoon off.

Today I shall be doing the member audit and tidying some loose ends.

Now, I’m not going to brag that 4 of the top ten services proofed to Racing Index are based on Focus Ratings, but, perhaps I will.

2021-11-25--1637823119_742x781_scrot

Sorry – just couldn’t resist it.

Read More about Morning News – 25/11/2021

November 24, 2021 - Morning News – 24/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

Another major milestone was reached yesterday…

With the migration to my new management system.

Today I have to implement the task management part – that should I ensure that I get every regular job done on time.

I can see the benefits of the new system already.

Although it’s been a hassle getting it done, I’m finding that I now have far more time to concentrate on improving the service and investigating new strategies.

Yesterday, for example, I spent time investigating a new possible angle on the Intelligent-Betting System Selections.

In the past that would have been something that would have gone on the To-Do list and then…

Totally forgotten.

The other main job for me for today, and the rest of the week, is to sort out the Focus Ratings price rise.

Obviously, pretty much every one of my services is somehow based upon Focus Ratings.

The last time I put the price up was over 7 years ago.

If you are currently a Focus Ratings member, nothing changes for you – you always pay the price that you paid when you first joined.

The price rise will only apply to those people who join after the price rise.

One of the things that I need to think about is to have an option to subscribe to Focus Ratings in such a way that gives the member full access to all services except Intelligent Betting (which is a service that I share with Roy.)

So, over the next few weeks, I shall be contacting each of you individually to let you know what you currently subscribe to, what you are paying, what you are missing out on and what your options are.

This will also have the benefit for me to help me audit my member list.

Back to Horse Racing…

Racing-Index currently shows that all seven of the services that I proof to it are profitable for the last exact month.

Although I was a bit miffed that, after waffling on about Portfolio Betting (both the R9 Portfolio Betting selections and the Portfolio-Betting.com selections), neither service actually produced any selections yesterday.

Still, the other services did reasonably well with Advance Ratings System Selections leading the pack with 2 winners out of 5 selections, including one at 9.82 BSP.

1.25 – Southwell – Tchoupinminzac – 1st @ 9.0 ISP (9.82 BSP)

So, that’s about it for me today.

On to my BAU (Business as Usual) work such as checking the backups have run, checking the server logs and so forth.

Only 2 hours and 22 minutes (not that I’m counting) until the Boulangerie opens.

In about an hour’s time, if I open my window, I’ll be able to smell the freshly baked croissants – the smell will drive me crazy until I can wander across the market square to check if today’s croissants are as good as they smell.

Croissants (and Pain Au Raisins) are, to me…

What Catnip is to a cat.

Read More about Morning News – 24/11/2021

November 23, 2021 - Morning News – 23/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

I sort of got distracted and sidetracked yesterday…

And decided to take a quick look at the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio Selections.

These aren’t to be confused with the Portfolio-Betting.com selections which, although based upon the same ratings, use a different strategy.

I decided to concentrate on the Bankers Bets – these are bets on the best 2 races of the day.

The spreadsheet that I used is available at… http://focusratings.com/docs/Bankers.xlsx

It only shows the last 2 months data as I made a change 2 months ago to only use those micro systems that had enough background data to allow me to trust them.

However, the results look promising.

Bankers

The chart shows the results where the Bankers Bets are bet to 1 point for Win Bets and 2 points for Place Bets.

Even though the graph is a bit jagged, had I had 5 years of data to display, the chart would be far smoother.

However, a 20 point bank grows to 43 points over the 2 month period.

At no point was the bank even remotely threatened and the lowest balance was 19.18 points – the balance rose to 21.7 points the following day.

Focus Ratings, Place Profits, EarlyBird Ratings and Intelligent Betting (full or free) members may request access to these selections on a daily basis until I commercialise this service.

Just send me an email to set you up.

Which brings me to another point…

Those of you who currently receive the Portfolio-Betting.com selections for free (effectively a free trial) will no longer receive them as I have commercialised that service.

I shall be making a change to the way that I present the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections.

This is how I currently display the selections.

2021-11-23--1637641542_574x770_scrot

This is far too complex.

From today I shall just show the Bankers Bets and 1 Chancer Bet (this will be called the Win Bet of the Day) and 1 Place Bet (this will be called the Place Bet of the Day.)

I shall show advised stakes but with 10 points spread across just those bets.

Read More about Morning News – 23/11/2021

November 22, 2021 - Morning News – 22/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

Over the weekend I did manage to get a large chunk of my Admin work completed.

I have to run an audit on the members database today, to ensure that those people getting ratings/selections etc. are paying for them and, more importantly…

People who are paying for a service are actually getting those selections/ratings.

I am aware that some service access has been lost during the implementation of my CRM software so, today I have to put that right..

In other news…

At Intelligent Betting, Roy is back from his break.

The System Selections have been doing well recently, with 4 out of 4 on Saturday.

2021-11-22--1637550188_664x462_scrot

Overall…

Although here are daily ups and downs…

It is interesting to note that,

Four of the top 11 performing services independently proofed to Racing Index are based upon (one way or another) on Focus Ratings.

2021-11-22--1637549255_753x805_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 22/11/2021

November 20, 2021 - 20/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

Overall, a very good day for most of the services, yesterday.

The top rated horse for Focus Ratings (which underlays many of the services) had a 37% strike rate.

Advance Ratings had 4 winners from the 7 selections…

Including one at 22.23 BSP.

Intelligent Betting had 1 winner from 2 selections and made a slight profit.

I have to go out today so I won’t be able to get too much work done but I will carry on with my admin work (nearly finished now) as getting that cleared will give me more time in the future to get on with the important things.

2021-11-20--1637369468_730x709_scrot

Read More about 20/11/2021

November 19, 2021 - Morning News – 19/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

I seem to be steaming through the admin work that I’m working on and…

I can see how it will save me a lot of time in the future.

There have been a few hiccups along the way but, perhaps, not as many as I expected.

From tomorrow, this Morning News email will be sent out to a new list of email addresses.

This mean that, if you subscribe to more than one service you will only get this email once rather than the two or three time that you currently get.

If you don’t want to receive the Morning News you should email me to let me know and I’ll remove you from the list.

Read More about Morning News – 19/11/2021

November 18, 2021 - Morning News – 18/11/2018

6620418Good morning…

After a massive day of admin work…

I am almost caught up and will soon be able to move on to more exciting and interesting things.

I have found some errors within my membership software and have manually corrected them.

So, if you find that you are not receiving the selections or ratings that you normally do but haven’t cancelled your subscription to that service, please let me know and I’ll investigate.

Read More about Morning News – 18/11/2018

November 17, 2021 - Morning News – 17/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have to admit that…

The CRM (Customer Relationship Management) system that I installed about 6 weeks ago has turned out to be an absolute nightmare.

I can still see that, long term, it will make my life easier but,

It’s making my work twice as long at the moment.

Still, I’ll get there in the end.

Thus, more admin work for me today; trying to get it all working.

Read More about Morning News – 17/11/2021

November 16, 2021 - Morning News – 16/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

Overall, even though yesterday was very quiet…

It was a reasonable day and I got a fair bit of work done.

Because the ratings are coming out earlier (because there’s no Flat racing; thus, no Speed Ratings) I am getting a far earlier start on the day which seems to be working well.

Today I shall be catching up on admin work – fun,fun, fun.

Overall, things seem to be going well with…

3 of the top 10 services on Racing Index being powered, one way or another, by Focus Ratings.

2021-11-16--1637027473_731x668_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 16/11/2021

November 15, 2021 - Morning News – 15/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

A very quiet day, today…

With only two meetings.

That gives me a real chance to get some work done.

Portfolio Betting had a very good day, yesterday with one horse being selected by 3 different systems.

Cheltenham – 15:30 – I Like To Move It – 1st @ 1.66 ISP (1.73 BSP)

2021-11-15--1636946763_1037x876_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 15/11/2021

November 11, 2021 - Morning News – 11/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today is a bank holiday over here in France and, so…

I shall be taking the day off.

Intelligent Betting had a great day, yesterday…

There were two selections, the first of which won at 10.24 BSP.

Intelligent Betting is now the 3rd best performing service on Racing Index (for the last month.)

2021-11-11--1636599823_891x758_scrot

In fact…

3 of the top 10 services proofed to Racing Index are based upon Focus Ratings.

These are the last 2 days Intelligent Betting results…

2021-11-11--1636601352_663x359_scrot

Not just a great strike rate but good prices as well.

Read More about Morning News – 11/11/2021

November 8, 2021 - Morning News – 08/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

Over the weekend I have been looking at utilising the theory behind Portfolio-Betting.com to investigate a new strategy for PlaceProfits.com

Portfolio-Betting.com uses 7 micro-systems to generate its selections.

I feel that the same principle could be used for place selections.

Having said that…

PlaceProfits.com is really on a bit of a roll at the moment with plenty of high priced selections coming in.

Anyway…

It’s worth putting in the effort to see if I can improve things even further.

ROFT

For those of you who use Intelligent Betting, you should be aware that Roy has to go to Florida on Thursday for a family funeral.

He will be gone for 10 days and, obviously, during that time there will be no ROFT (Roy’s One For Today) selections.

Read More about Morning News – 08/11/2021

November 4, 2021 - Morning News – 04/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

I spent yesterday trying to catch up on the backlog of work but…

Looking at what is outstanding, it feels like I’ve only made a small dent.

Note to me; Don’t catch the flu.

Overall, yesterday seemed to be a pretty good day but…

There is a problem with Betfair/Timeform and a lot of the prices aren’t being shown.

This, of course, adds to my workload as I’ll have to catch up with these once the prices are displayed (it looks like Timeform is displaying the Place prices but not the Win prices.)

Still, it’s peeing down with rain over here in sunny Brittany so I guess that I’m housebound and will then, thus, have no distractions.

Read More about Morning News – 04/11/2021

November 4, 2021 - Morning News – 03/11/2021

6620418Good morning…

Overall…

Yesterday was a pretty good day for all the systems and ratings.

It was especially good for the new Portfolio Betting service with 4.5472 points profit to the 5 points staked.

It’s been a good start to the month for that service as on Monday we had 1.3718 points profit to the 4 points staked.

So, nicely in profit for the month so far.

The screenshot below is from the independently proofed results (to a 2% commission and advised stakes) at Racing Index.

2021-11-03--1635902069_351x402_scrot

The bug that I thought I had recently fixed has raised its head again and, as a result, I’ve not being getting notifications of requests for Free Trails of Focus Ratings.

I shall be manually going through the backlog of these today.

Read More about Morning News – 03/11/2021

October 30, 2021 - Morning News – 30/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

I am starting to catch up on the email backlog which…

Is a result of a bout of Flu last week.

Over the weekend I shall also do a monthly reconciliation of the new Portfolio Betting results which basically means tweaking the systems to take into account historical performance.

Obviously, the service is doing well at the moment but, there’s no harm in making it even better.

The recent results are displayed lower down on this email/post.

Read More about Morning News – 30/10/2021

October 30, 2021 - Morning News – 29/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

For the first time in over a week I have got up on time and not given in to the temptation to have a little five hour lie in.

And I don’t feel the need to go back to bed after the ratings have gone out.

I still don’t know how I managed to get the flu with all the new hygiene measures in place but,

Somehow I did.

Hopefully I am now on the mend and should be able to catch up on outstanding work.

Looking back over the last week, there have been some great results coming in but…

At the time, not enough to drag me out of my death bed.

I have to say that I’m really bad at being ill; a typical man in other words.

Read More about Morning News – 29/10/2021

October 26, 2021 - Morning News – 26/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have been laid low with the flu for the last 4 or 5 days which…

Is why I haven’t done any Morning News posts.

I’m not sure how I managed to get the flu because I wear a mask in public and so forth but. hey ho, somehow I managed to.

A great day for the Advance Ratings System Selections with 5 winners from the 6 selections (taking the 2 non-runners into account.)

Also, two out of three for the Investment Betting selections isn’t too shabby.

I am going to spend today trying to catch up on email but I’m still not 100% so it may take a day or two.

Read More about Morning News – 26/10/2021

October 20, 2021 - Morning News – 20/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today is going to be a boring admin day for me.

I have a number of code updates to implement and…

I also have to write a post that explains the underlying performance management process for Portfolio Betting.

This swaps the systems in and out of the selection process based upon their recent performance and, also, their performance for the same month over the last 5 years.

This is important as I could use the same process for my other selections systems.

The only analogy that I can come up with is this…

When you drive a car you don’t just stay in first gear;

You change gears to adapt to requirements.

The performance management system will do the same by dropping (temporarily) lesser performing systems and promoting those that are doing well.

All systems get monitored but only the best are used for selections.

Read More about Morning News – 20/10/2021

October 18, 2021 - Morning News – 18/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

I shall be doing a reconciliation of the last week’s results for Portfolio Betting today.

From a quick glance, I am sure that we are well in profit for the last week.

I shall also be finishing the code for the proposed monthly review.

This will review the month’s performance and maybe swap in good performing systems and swap out lesser performing systems.

I will have to add a few more systems to allow this.

The aim is to straighten out the line, so to speak.

If you look at the chart below, you will see that, although the performance is impressive…

Betting to £10 stakes a £500 betting bank would have increased to £21,120 over a 5 year period,

The line isn’t perfectly straight.

pb

By constantly (at least on a monthly basis) tuning the usage of the systems, I anticipate straightening the line shown on the graph.

This will reduce the number of losing days.

Read More about Morning News – 18/10/2021

October 15, 2021 - Morning News – 15/10/2021

Good morning… Well… I finally have my email server back up and running. I still have a fair amount of work to do to ensure that I don’t suffer from the same problem again but I should get that all done by the end of today. Over at Portfolio Betting we had a losing day […]

Read More about Morning News – 15/10/2021

October 11, 2021 - Morning News – 11/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

Just a quick message to let you know that I have a problem with my email server.

This only affects me automatically sending emails.

It doesn’t affect normal email correspondence.

There is a workaround but this adds about 3 hours extra work a day.

Thus, the shortened version of the Morning News today.

I’m hoping to get this problem solved today but, until it is…

I’m having to manually perform the duties my email server normally does.

Read More about Morning News – 11/10/2021

October 8, 2021 - Morning News

6620418Good morning…

A good day for the R9 Portfolio Selections yesterday…

Race 1: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.311

Thurles – 13:45 – Anchorage – Place Bet (69.2% – 0.311) – 1st @ 2.10 ISP (2.31 BSP)

Race 2: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.446

Ayr – 14:40 – Havana Go – Place Bet (55.8% – 0.216) – 1st @ 6.50 ISP (6.77 BSP)

Race 3: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.154

Exeter – 15:05 – Sergeant – Win Bet (32.8% – 0.216) – 1st @ 1.1 ISP (1.91 BSP)

Exeter – 15:05 – Sergeant – Place Bet (68.8% – 0.092) – 1st @ 1.19 BSP

Race 4: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.402

Chelmsford – 20:00 – Plastic Paddy – Win Bet (30.9% – 0.580) – 2nd

Chelmsford – 20:00 – Plastic Paddy – Place Bet (60% – 0.225) – 2nd @ 1.43 BSP

Just a heads up…

There will be no Morning News tomorrow or Sunday;

I have a massive amount of work to be done and I’d just rather start the day running.

Normal service will be restored on Monday.

Read More about Morning News

October 7, 2021 - Morning News – 07/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

An early start for me as I attempt to finish the code to automatically generate the R9 Portfolio selections.

I am about half way through.

One of the interesting things is that, yesterday, during testing, there were 4 selections. 3 of those 4 selections were selected by multiple systems.

Thus, if a horse is a selections for 2 different systems, it should be bet to 2 points; if a horse is selected by 3 different systems, it should be bet to 3 points.

To my mind, the more systems that select the same horse would seem like an endorsement for that horse.

The portfolio can never select more than one horse in a race as it only uses the top rated horse.

I shall be sending out today’s selections (for the systems that I have already added) to those people who have requested them.

The current (updated) spreadsheet may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx

The spreadsheet now shows the actual selections that would have been produced over the last 5 years.

Read More about Morning News – 07/10/2021

October 6, 2021 - Morning News

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday, I found a bug in the spreadsheet that displays the historical data for the new portfolio system.

I have fixed the bug and updated the spreadsheet.

The current (updated) spreadsheet may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx

This shows the 7 mini systems based upon R9. These give about 25 races a week and are as follows…

1). 5 Runners or less: 2.36 races a week, 56.97% SR & 58.32% POI
2). 130% + Confidence: 2.77 races a week, 52.20% SR & 67.24% POI
3). Winner LTO: 5.41 races a week, 41.29% SR & 23.17% POI
4). Clear Favs: 5.05 races a week, 41.67% SR & 29.97% POI
5). High FC Prices: 2.75 races a week, 22.90% SR & 56.64% POI
6). Recent Returners: 4.81 races a week, 36.57% SR & 32.75% POI
7). Beaten Favs: 1.70 races a week, 44.02% SR & 72.16% POI

The spreadsheet now shows the actual selections that would have been produced over the last 5 years.

It also shows a chart.

Read More about Morning News

October 5, 2021 - Morning News – 05/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday, I managed to get more work done on the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections.

The beauty of a Portfolio system is that the selections seem to balance themselves out.

The current (updated) spreadsheet may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx

I am working on content to explain the spreadsheet but, if you work from left to right it should all make sense.

This shows the 7 mini systems based upon R9. These give about 25 races a week and are as follows…

1). 5 Runners or less: 2.36 races a week, 56.97% SR & 58.32% POI
2). 130% + Confidence: 2.77 races a week, 52.20% SR & 67.24% POI
3). Winner LTO: 5.41 races a week, 41.29% SR & 23.17% POI
4). Clear Favs: 5.05 races a week, 41.67% SR & 29.97% POI
5). High FC Prices: 2.75 races a week, 22.90% SR & 56.64% POI
6). Recent Returners: 4.81 races a week, 36.57% SR & 32.75% POI
7). Beaten Favs: 1.70 races a week, 44.02% SR & 72.16% POI

The spreadsheet now shows the actual selections that would have been produced over the last 5 years.

It also shows a chart.

This is a screenshot of that chart.

pb_chart

Please click on the image to see it full size.

What really interests me is that, using the 5 years of sample data, there has only been one losing month.

Read More about Morning News – 05/10/2021

October 4, 2021 - Morning News – 04/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

Although I had some server problems on Saturday morning…

I did manage to get more work done on the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections.

The beauty of a Portfolio system is that the selections seem to balance themselves out.

I will be publishing a new spreadsheet tomorrow.

The current spreadsheet may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx

This shows the 7 mini systems based upon R9. These give about 25 races a week and are as follows…

1). 5 Runners or less: 2.36 races a week, 56.97% SR & 58.32% POI
2). 130% + Confidence: 2.77 races a week, 52.20% SR & 67.24% POI
3). Winner LTO: 5.41 races a week, 41.29% SR & 23.17% POI
4). Clear Favs: 5.05 races a week, 41.67% SR & 29.97% POI
5). High FC Prices: 2.75 races a week, 22.90% SR & 56.64% POI
6). Recent Returners: 4.81 races a week, 36.57% SR & 32.75% POI
7). Beaten Favs: 1.70 races a week, 44.02% SR & 72.16% POI

The new spreadsheet will show the actual selections that would have been produced over the last 5 years.

It will also show a chart so that a staking system can be worked out.

It will take me another few days until I can automatically produce these selections. Once that is done I shall show them on the R9 Portflio Selections daily email.

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Read More about Morning News – 04/10/2021

October 2, 2021 - Morning News – 02/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

Exciting times…

Whilst working on the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections I have been noticing come trends.

I have finally finished my examination of these trends and have produced a spreadsheet to allow us to benefit from them.

For example, Top Rated Beaten Favourites are blindly profitable – even more profitable with a few tweaks.

The spreadsheet may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx

I have come up with 7 mini systems based upon R9. These give about 25 races a week and are as follows…

1). 5 Runners or less: 2.36 races a week, 56.97% SR & 58.32% POI
2). 130% + Confidence: 2.77 races a week, 52.20% SR & 67.24% POI
3). Winner LTO: 5.41 races a week, 41.29% SR & 23.17% POI
4). Clear Favs: 5.05 races a week, 41.67% SR & 29.97% POI
5). High FC Prices: 2.75 races a week, 22.90% SR & 56.64% POI
6). Recent Returners: 4.81 races a week, 36.57% SR & 32.75% POI
7). Beaten Favs: 1.70 races a week, 44.02% SR & 72.16% POI

Together these provide a Portfolio of R9 based bets.

It will take me another few days until I can automatically produce these selections. Once that is done I shall show them on the R9 Portflio Selections daily email.

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.


Arc De Triomphe

I have complied the ratings for The Arc. These may be downloaded from… Arc De Triomphe-2021

Read More about Morning News – 02/10/2021

October 1, 2021 - Morning News – 01/10/2021

6620418Good morning…

From today…

I shall be slightly changing the way I display the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections.

At the moment I show the information as follows…

Chelmsford – 19:30 – Shining Aitch – Place Bet (0.566)

The number in the brackets is the Horse Reward/Risk Ratio.

This is the historical strike rate for the race type multiplied by the anticipated return (profit) should that selection be successful.

From today I shall display the information as follows…

Chelmsford – 19:30 – Shining Aitch – Place Bet (66.3% – 0.566)

This shows the historical strike rate for that race type.

This is primarily to allow you to make your betting decisions based upon all of the available information.

You might, for example, choose to bet on the lowest risk (highest historical strike rate) selection of the day if you are risk averse.

If you select the horse/selection with the highest Reward/Risk Ratio you will do so in the knowledge of the historical strike rate.

This puts you in control.

Read More about Morning News – 01/10/2021

September 30, 2021 - Morning News – 30/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

As today is market day…

I am not sure how much work I will get done.

It is a real distraction for me.

However, I shall continue with my explanation of how the Focus Rating R9 selections are worked out.

And…

How to best profit from them.

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Read More about Morning News – 30/09/2021

September 29, 2021 - Morning News – 29/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today I shall be largely getting on with Admin work.

Those of you that have applied for free trials should be aware that there is a bug in the code that informs me of this.

I have fixed the bug and will be processing the applications today.

I shall also try to complete the post that fully explains the philosophy behind the new R9 Portfolio selections.

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Read More about Morning News – 29/09/2021

September 28, 2021 - Morning News – 28/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

Although yesterday wasn’t so good for the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections…

I’m not too worried as Mondays are often quite strange for us.

We tend to either do very well or, as yesterday, not so well at all.

Today’s racing looks more consistent and I’m hoping for better results.

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Read More about Morning News – 28/09/2021

September 27, 2021 - Morning News – 27/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

After a lot of analysis…

I have implemented the additional filters for the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections.

This ensures that we only use races where there have been enough historical results to base a decision on.

I will be using this for both the win bets and the place bets.

Yesterday’s 3 races (and selections) were…

Race 1 – Curragh – 14:30 – Sunset Shiraz (Win Bet) – 4.84 Points – 2nd

Race 1 – Curragh – 14:30 – Sunset Shiraz (Place Bet) – 1.80 Points – 2nd @ 1.76

Race 2 – Ffos Las – 16:15 – Brains (Win Bet) – 1.87 Points – 1st 1 @ 3.65

Race 2 – Ffos Las – 16:15 – Brains (Place Bet) – 0.61 Points – 1st @ 1.65

Race 3 – Epsom – 16:25 – Danville (Win Bet) – 0.88 Points – 1st @ 1.20

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Read More about Morning News – 27/09/2021

September 24, 2021 - Morning News – 24-09-2021

6620418Good morning…

I do think that…

I have come up with a sensible filter for the selections based upon the Focus Ratings R9 ratings.

I have a spreadsheet containing the top rated and second rated horses in the R9 rated races over the last 5 years.

There are Pivot Tables which show the performance of those horses over the last 5 years.

Now, there are some race types (let’s take Class 5 non-handicap Novice Hurdles as an example) where there have been hundreds of races over the last 5 years.

But, there are also some race types (such as Class 2 non-handicap All Weather Listed) where the might only have been 10 races over the last 5 years.

Now, for the latter, there really isn’t enough data to make those selections valid.

So, what I am doing is only choosing those races where I have had at least 50 races over the last 5 years to base my selections on.

For the One Win Bet Of The Day I am seeing a marked improvement in strike rate.

For the Place Bet Of The Day I am also seeing an improvement in strike rate but the prices aren’t being affected.

This is good news as those Place Bets are already profitable and…

By improving the strike rate from 66% to about 72% they become even more profitable.

And that has got to be good news for us.

It is going to take me a few days for me to go back through the historical data so I probably won’t have a final answer until Monday.

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Read More about Morning News – 24-09-2021

September 22, 2021 - Morning News – 22-09-2021

6620418Good morning…

As promised yesterday…

I am not going to mention the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio Place Bet Of The Day any more.

I did spend a lot of time, yesterday, looking at getting a Win Bet Of The Day but I have more investigating to do.

I shall carry on with that today.

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

I have just created the SpotLight Ratings for today’s Listed race at Saint-Cloud (FR) – SpotlightRatings – 22nd September 2021

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just send me an email and I’ll set you up.

For the benefit of Intelligent Betting members I shall be displaying the links to the SpotLight Ratings PDFs for the next week or so so that they can take a look.

Read More about Morning News – 22-09-2021

September 21, 2021 - Morning News – 21/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

I know that I’ve been getting a bit excited about the 1 Focus Ratings Place Bet Of The Day but…

The image below show why.

Taking the non runners into account there have been 17 bets this month;

From those there have been 12 winning bets.

That’s a strike rate of 70%.

If you look at the distribution of the 5 losing bets it is obvious that you could stake this to a 10 point bank.

pb01

Until I commercialise the R9 Portfolio selections (possibly about a month away) they are free to Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings, Place Profits and Intelligent Betting (free or paying) members – just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

I shall continue to report on the One Place Bet Of The Day but it will be in the Place Profits section of this email.

I am now going to take a look to see if I can find a suitable One Win Bet Of The Day Strategy.

Read More about Morning News – 21/09/2021

September 16, 2021 - Morning News – 16/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

Another very good day…

Especially for the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections with all 5 place bets winning (or being placed.)

As I mentioned on Tuesday, I have come up with a new strategy for place betting one selection a day, based upon the R9 ratings.

I am still plowing through the historical results and I am seeing a terrible strike rate of just over 65% but…

At an average price of 2.20.

At those prices we only need a strike rate of 50% to give a 10% profit on turnover.

I am going to complete the historical results and then am going to apply the same strategy to a single win bet each day.

Once that is done I shall write a post explaining it all and showing links to the spreadsheet.

Exciting times – please bear with me until I get it all finished.

Read More about Morning News – 16/09/2021

September 16, 2021 - Morning News – 14/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

A pretty good day all round, yesterday…

With Place Profits, Investment Betting, Advance Ratings and Early Bird Ratings selections all profitable.

I have updated the AntePostRatings site with all races shown by the Racing Post Big Race Entries races now rated and shown.

I have also found a new way of Place Betting based upon the new R9 Portfolio selections.

I shall be explaining this to you tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 14/09/2021

September 13, 2021 - Morning News – 13/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

This is going to be a busy week for me.

Today I need to update the results for the Ante Post Ratings for the weekend races.

I am also going to slightly change the PDF so that it shows the price available at the time of the creation of the ratings.

Today I shall be adding the Ante Post Ratings for the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1) – Doncaster – 23rd October.

There is one Listed race at St Cloud (Fr) tomorrow;

I will be producing the SpotLight Ratings for that race today.

Read More about Morning News – 13/09/2021

September 1, 2021 - Morning News – 01/09/2021

6620418Good morning…

Overall, yesterday was a pretty good day.

Three out of the four Investment Betting selections won and…

The only Earlybird Ratings Diamond and Gold selection also won.

Today I shall be working on getting Compass Ratings ready for the re-start of racing in Hong Kong.

I shall be looking at additional strategies to improve the already blindly profitable ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 01/09/2021

August 31, 2021 - Morning News – 31/08/2021

6620418Good morning…

I am still sort of catching up on the backlog of work but, one of the things I shall be focusing on are the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio results.

This is very exciting for me as it is basically a new way of betting on horse racing.

A bit like dutching but more logical.

This is what happened yesterday…


R9 Portfolio Selections

These were yesterday’s selections…

Advised Bet – 5 points bet on one race.

Race 1 – Downpatrick – 13:10 – Hurricane Georgie (Place Bet) – 5 Points – 2nd @ 1.46 (2.254 points profit)

Bankers Bets – 10 points bet on 2 races.

Race 1 – Downpatrick – Hurricane Georgie (Place Bet) – 4.70 Points – 2nd @ 1.46 (2.1184 points profit)

Race 7 – Epsom – 16:20 – Patient Dream (Place Bet) – 5.30 Points – 1st @ 1.65 (3.3761 points profit)

Chancers Bets – 10 points bet on 3 races.

Race 2 – Ripon – 14:30 – Myristica (Place Bet) – 0.50 Points – 3rd (0.50 points loss)

Race 2 – Ripon – 14:30 – Howzer Black (Win Bet) – 1.78 Points – 1st @ 8.4 (13.172 points profit)

Race 2 – Ripon – 14:30 – Howzer Black (Place Bet) – 0.75 Points – 1st @ 3.53 (1.8595 points profit)

Race 3 -Downpatrick – 14:45 – Ruler Of Dubai (Win Bet) – 2.34 Points – 5th (2.34 points loss)

Race 3 – Downpatrick – 14:45 – Ruler Of Dubai (Place Bet) – 1.04 Points – 5th (1.04 points loss)

Race 12 – Roscommon – 18:45 – Wajaaha (Win Bet) – 2.42 Points – 10th (2.42 points loss)

Race 12 – Roscommon – 18:45 – Dance Emperor (Place Bet) – 1.17 Points – 7th (1.17 points loss)

Place Bets – 10 points bet on top 5 place selections.

Race 2 – Ripon – 14:30 – Howzer Black (Place Bet) – 3.27 Points – 1st @ 3.53 (8.1076 points profit)

Race 3 – Downpatrick – 14:45 – Ruler Of Dubai (Place Bet) – 1.92 Points – 5th (1.92 points loss)

Race 8 – Epsom – 16:55 – Yanifer (Place Bet) – 1.68 Points – 4th (1.68 points loss)

Race 8 – Epsom – 16:55 – Curtiz (Place Bet) – 0.93 Points – at @ 1.53 (0.4830 points profit)

Race 12 – Roscommon – 18:45 – Dance Emperor (Place Bet) – 2.20 Points – 7th (2.20 points loss)

Basically, the Advised bet is the safest race of the day.

The Bankers Bet are those bets on the safest two races of the day and…

The Chancers bet are those bets on the 3 races that have the highest Race Reward/Risk Ratios.

Thje Place bets are the top 5 place bets based upon Reward/Risk Ratios.

Read More about Morning News – 31/08/2021

August 28, 2021 - Morning News – 28/08/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well, after a couple of good night’s sleep I seem to be back on track.

I have a whole list of things that I’m planning to do, what I’ve promised to do and things that I want to do;

I’ll be hitting that list on Monday.

For the moment I need to update you on a couple of things…

ROFT – Those of you who are Intelligent Betting full members need to be aware that Roy is now on holiday for a week. Thus there will be no ROFT (Roy’s One For Today) selections for the next week.

ROFT is doing well at the moment;

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Morning News – I am going to start sending out the Morning News later than normal from next week (as tomorrow is Sunday, there will be no Morning News) as it seems a bit silly for me to rush to get it out early.

Read More about Morning News – 28/08/2021

August 14, 2021 - Morning News – 14/08/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well, it seems to that time of the year again…

That time of the year when I’m rather happy that I’m not Jewish or Muslim or a Vegetarian or Vegan.

Not that I have any problems with any of those religions – I’m a pretty easy going guy but…

It’s that time of the year where I do admit that I do like eating well cooked little bits of dead pig.

Yes, the Pig Roast has come to town.

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It does this every year, around about this time.

Personally, I think that it’s a Government plot to corrupt Vegetarians and Vegans but, I am kind of biased as I spent my first 8 years in France working in a Pig Abattoir.

As a result I got staff discount on our products and fully made the most use of that.

I do have to warn you that tomorrow, Sunday (15th of August) is a Bank Holiday but…

As I don’t generally do a Morning News on Sundays, that shouldn’t affect you.

Anyway – today my main priority is to try to get some work done whilst the pig is getting spit roasted across the market square.

That is going to be a major challenge but I shall do my best.

However, as I’ve had a hard start to the week (with my sleep problems), I shall also be doing some catch up work over the weekend.

Primarily, I shall be defining the new Focus Ratings R9 strategy so that you can all understand all the opportunities within.

Then, next week I’ll be catching up on admin work but also trying to get on top of Spotlight Ratings and AntePost Ratings.

They have both suffered a bit over the last few months – I do need to catch up.

In a Ideal World…

In an ideal world…

Tomorrow I’ll get my Skype machine working and I’ll be more available to those of you who just want to have a chat.

The machine that I intend to use actually has a faulty sound card/circuit; that has wasted me an awful lot of time trying to diagnose the problem (you wouldn’t believe how many hours that I have wasted) but I have bought an external USB sound card and that should solve the issue.

Read More about Morning News – 14/08/2021

August 13, 2021 - Morning News – 13/08/2021

6620418Good morning…

I apologise for not doing the Morning News for the last couple of days…

Since we had the fair in the village my sleep has been rather disturbed and my routine is all over the place.

As a result, today the selections and so forth will be coming out a little later than normal.

If I get a good night’s sleep tonight then things should start getting back to normal.

Read More about Morning News – 13/08/2021

August 9, 2021 - Morning News – 09/08/02021

6620418Good morning…

What should have been a nice quiet weekend…

Actually involved quite a lot of work.

My new Admin system (which is supposed to make my life easier) has been causing me a few problems.

They are all logical problems and, once sorted out, they won’t re-occur.

Teething problems, in other words.

I’ve also been taking a look at the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio selections…

I’m quite happy with the Place Betting option; yesterday we had the normal 5 best Place Betting Bets of the day.

R9 Portfolio Place Selections

Place Bets – 10 Points bet on top 5 Place selections.

Race 2 – Windsor – 14:05 – Joi Choi (Place Bet) – 2.29 Points – 2nd @ 1.28 (0.6283 points profit)
Race 2 – Windsor – 14:05 – Molly Shaw (Place Bet) – 1.40 Points – NR
Race 3 – Downpatrick – 14:40 – Natural Breeze (Place Bet) – 1.96 Points – 4th @ 1.75 (1.4406 points profit)
Race 4 – Leicester – 14:50 – Whitehaven (Place Bet) – 2.49 Points – NR
Race 5 – Curragh – 16:10 – Go Bears Go (Place Bet) – 1.83 Points – 3rd @ 1.27 (0.4842)

As you can see, 2 of those were non-runners.

The remaining 3 bets were all successfully placed.

2.5531 point profit was made to the 6.11 points staked (taking the non-runners into account.)

I am looking at a number of filters to further improve the performance of the Place Betting selections but, also,

I have decided to change the philosophy behind the Advised Bet and the Bankers Bet so that they no longer are based upon the races with highest Race Reward/Risk Ratios but, instead, are the two safest races of the day.

The Chancers Bet will remain as those three races with the highest Race Reward/Risk Ratios.

This sort of brings the selections/strategy in line with the original Portfolio selections (now discontinued) that I launched back in 2014.

Read More about Morning News – 09/08/02021

August 7, 2021 - Morning News – 07/08/2021

6620418Good morning…

Firstly, I would like to apologise to those of you who were affected with yesterday’s update to my new client management system.

It appears that a few of you had your accounts locked and, as a result, didn’t receive your ratings/selections.

From what I have deduced, this only happened to those of you who have cancelled your subscription and then re-subscribed (perhaps if your credit/debit card details have changed.)

I believe that I am now on top of the situation and, even though it’s a lot of hassle for me (and the few of you who have been affected), long term it will be a god send for me as the new system works as a virtual personal assistant and will save me loads of time.

Moving on…

Another astounding day for the Place Selections for the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio Bets.

This selects the best 5 Place Bets from the day’s R9 Rated selections. These are bet to a total 10 points stake but the individual stakes are calculated to bet according to the individual Reward/Risk Ratios.

Thus, more money is staked on those bets which will give you more return for a lower risk.

Race 1 – Thirsk – 13:00 – Clodeva (Place Bet) – 3.09 Points – NR
Race 2 – Brighton – 13:50 – Gherkin (Place Bet) – 2.30 Points – 6th (2.30 points loss)
Race 5 – Tipperary – 17:00 – Harmony Rose (Place Bet) – 1.78 Points – 2nd @ 2.22 (2.1281 points profit)
Race 6 – Tipperary – 17:30 – Indigo Balance (Place Bet) – 1.48 Points – 3rd @ 1.74 (1.0732 points profit)
Race 7 – Haydock – 20:25 – Goldie Hawk (Place Bet) – 1.33 Points – 1st @ 1.82 (1.0687 points profit)

1.97 points profit to the 6.91 points staked (taking the non-runner into account.)

Even the Chancers Bet was nicely profitable.

This selects the best 3 races of the day and, once again, splits 10 points across the individual bets.

These are the selections that I proof to Racing Index.

Race 1 – Thirsk – 13:00 – Clodeva (Place Bet) – 2.31 Points – NR
Race 6 – Tipperary – 17:30 – Indigo Balance (Win Bet) – 2.99 Points – 3rd (2.99 points loss)
Race 6 – Tipperary – 17:30 – Indigo Balance (Place Bet) – 1.11 Points 3rd @ 1.74 (0.8049 points profit)
Race 7 – Haydock – 20:25 – Goldie Hawk (Win Bet) – 2.57 Points – 1st @ 4.18 (8.009 points profit)
Race 7 – Haydock – 20:25 – Goldie Hawk (Place Bet) – 0.99 Points – 1st @ 1.82 (0.7955 points profit)

6.6194 points profit to the 7.69 points staked (taking the non-runner into account.)

If you are a Focus Ratings member you can get these selections for free.

Place Profits members get the Place Selections for free.

EarlyBird Ratings and Intelligent Betting (full or free) members can get a long term free trial just by asking.

As tomorrow is Sunday, there will be no Morning News.

I hope that on Monday I shall be able to explain the Lay Betting addition to the R9 Portfolio Strategy.

Read More about Morning News – 07/08/2021

August 6, 2021 - Morning News – 06/08/2021

6620418Good morning…

An interesting day for me, yesterday…

I think that I may have come up with a potential Lay Betting strategy to add to the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio bets.

I’ve realised that the problem for me is that any R9 rated horse has too high a propensity to win for it to be a Lay Betting candidate.

However, I’ve discovered that the cheapest R8 rated horse (that isn’t an R9 rated horse) in any race that is an R9 rated race,

Is a good Lay Betting candidate.

To historically test this is going to be difficult and I certainly don’t want to have to do it manually but,

This might give us what I’m aiming for…

A Win bet, perhaps two Place bets and, maybe a couple of Lay Bets for many of the R9 rated races.

I’ll be working on this over the weekend.

Read More about Morning News – 06/08/2021

August 5, 2021 - Morning News – 05/08/2021

6620418Good morning…

After a hard day’s work…

I have almost caught up on doing the results for the R9 Portfolio selections.

Because of the way I started off (the wrong way) it is taking me an hour to do each day’s results.

Now, I can (and will) automate the process but that will take me a couple of days so I really want to get up to date first.

The highlight for me is the place bets;

Yesterday there were 5 place bets.

One was a non runner, two lost and two won.

Even with 2 losing bets we still made a profit.

Read More about Morning News – 05/08/2021

August 4, 2021 - Morning News – 04/08/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well, the fair has finally left the village…

And I can look forward to getting some decent sleep again.

Living in the market square of a small Breton village is wonderful but,

Once a year, the fair sets up in the market square and it all gets rather noisy.

Moving on…

Intelligent betting is on fire at the moment;

With 4 winners in 5 days from Roy’s One For Today.

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I sort of caught up with my sleep yesterday and, today I am fully back at work.

I have some admin work to catch up on but will also be working on getting the results of the R9 Portfolio spreadsheet finished.

Read More about Morning News – 04/08/2021

July 31, 2021 - 31/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Just a heads up…

As tomorrow is Sunday there will be no Morning News (it’s my day off) but, also, there might not be a Morning News on Monday or Tuesday either.

You see, it’s that time of the year where the fair comes to the village and the fair makes a lot of noise until about 2am.

I normally get up at 2am.

Thus, I’m not getting much sleep.

This also means that the ratings and the various selections might be coming out a bit later than normal.

It’s only for four day and only once a year and things should be back to normal on Wednesday.

Read More about 31/07/2021

July 30, 2021 - Morning News – 30/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

I am very sorry for the slight lack of a Morning News yesterday.

I overslept.

It seems that having a new bar next door isn’t such a great idea.

The new bar seems to have become the go to spot for late night beer, pizza and ice cream.

Now, I don’t mind people having a bit of fun…

I just wish that they would be a little bit quieter;

After all, some of us do have to sleep at night!

Wednesday night there were a bunch of people celebrating a birthday and…

The singing and general noise went on until just after 1am.

I am also running a little bit behind today and, a as result, the selections and so forth will be coming out a bit later than normal.

Read More about Morning News – 30/07/2021

July 28, 2021 - Morning News – 28/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

At some point today I shall be publishing the spreadsheet that shows the R9 data.

I have a bit more work to do to show the actual selections over the last 5 years.

This is taking far longer than I had anticipated…

As, to compare like with like, I have to show just the top 3 races of each day (for the chancers bet, for example) and the top 5 races of each day (for the place bets) and I have to do this manually.

There is 5 years of data but I am plowing through it.

Free Trial…

If you want to take a 7 day free trial of Focus Ratings, just click here… Free Trial.

You will get the Focus Ratings morning email but also the Advance Ratings email and can ask for the R9 Portfolio selections.

On top of that, you can also ask for the Hong Kong Compass Ratings and the European Spotlight Ratings…

As well as the UK & Irish Ante Post Ratings, for free…

During the period of your free trail.

Read More about Morning News – 28/07/2021

July 27, 2021 - Morning News – 27/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Some internet problems meant that I didn’t get much work done yesterday.

So…

Not too much to report today.

I should be getting a new router delivered today which should solve the problem.

Free Trial…

If you want to take a 7 day free trial of Focus Ratings, just click here… Free Trial.

You will get the Focus Ratings morning email but also the Advance Ratings email and can ask for the R9 Portfolio selections.

On top of that, you can also ask for the Hong Kong Compass Ratings and the European Spotlight Ratings…

As well as the UK & Irish Ante Post Ratings, for free…

During the period of your free trail.

Read More about Morning News – 27/07/2021

July 26, 2021 - Morning News – 26/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have to admit that I was a little bit worried…

As soon as I started talking about the R9 Portfolio selections,

They stopped winning.

I’ve seen this before and there actually is a mathematical reason for this;

We only talk about our systems when they are doing well; there has to be some compensation to follow.

These were yesterday’s R9 Portfolio selections…

Uttoxeter – 14:50 – Nevilles Cross – Place Bet (0.327)
Pontefract – 15:00 – Corinthia Knight – Place Bet (0.222)
Pontefract – 15:35 – Wheres Jeff – Win Bet (0.724)
Pontefract – 15:35 – Wheres Jeff – Place Bet (0.345)
Musselburgh – 17:15 – Gunnerside – Place Bet (0.779)
Musselburgh – 18:15 – Danzan – Win Bet (1.670)
Musselburgh – 18:15 – Danzan – Place Bet (0.697)

The numbers in the brackets are the Reward/Risk Ratios that determine the suggested stakes.

The Chancers bets yesterday were…

Chancers Bets – 10 points bet on 3 races.

Race 3 – Pontefract – 15:35 – Wheres Jeff (Win Bet) – 1.71 Points – 2nd (1.71 points loss)
Race 3 – Pontefract – 15:35 – Wheres Jeff (Place Bet) – 0.80 Points – 2nd @ 2.35 (1.0584 points profit)
Race 4 – Musselburgh – 17:15 – Gunnerside (Place Bet) – 1.84 Points 2nd @ 2.96 (3.5342 points profit)
Race 5 – Musselburgh – 18:15 – Danzan (Win Bet) – 3.96 Points – 2nd (3.96 points loss)
Race 5 – Musselburgh – 18:15 – Danzan (Place Bet) – 1.65 Points – 2nd @ 3.50 (4.0425 points profit)

If you look at the Place selections only (the best 5 races)…

Place Bets – 10 Points bet on top 5 Place selections.

Race 1 – Uttoxeter – 14:50 – Nevilles Cross (Place Bet) – 1.61 Points – 7th (1.61 points loss)
Race 2 – Pontefract – 15:00 – Corinthia Knight (Place Bet) – 1.09 Points – 1st @ 2.66 (1.7732 points profit)
Race 3 – Pontefract – 15:35 – Wheres Jeff (Place Bet) – 1.70 Points – 2nd @ 2.35 (2.2491 points profit)
Race 4 – Musselburgh – 17:15 – Gunnerside (Place Bet) – 3.84 Points – 2nd @ 2.96 (7.3758 points profit)
Race 5 – Musselburgh – 18:15 – Danzan (Place Bet) – 3.44 Points – 2nd @ 3.50 (8.428 points profit)

You can see that, by staking correctly, you can make decent profits from place betting the R9 selections.

It’s down to the higher prices and the staking so that more money goes on the races with a higher Reward/Risk Ratio.

The R9 ratings are free to Focus Ratings members – anyone else who gets this email can request access to those selections until I can sort out the admin work to sort out a £10 a month service for my members (for all my services) as opposed to the normal £25 cost a month.

Weirdly enough…

The Intelligent Betting selections are also doing well.

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Read More about Morning News – 26/07/2021

July 24, 2021 - Morning News – 24/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

My admin work seems to have gone well and…

I’m almost surprised to say that everything has gone to plan.

That has to be a first for me.

That means that I can take tomorrow off.

Thus, there will be no Morning News Tomorrow.

From next week the Morning News email will start to change a bit.

This is to give you the information that you want (or need) but also to allow me more time to talk about what is going on.

Free Trial…

If you want to take a 7 day free trial of Focus Ratings, just click here… Free Trial.

You will get the Focus Ratings morning email but also the Advance Ratings email and can ask for the R9 Portfolio selections.

On top of that, you can also ask for the Hong Kong Compass Ratings and the European Spotlight Ratings…

As well as the UK & Irish Ante Post Ratings, for free…

During the period of your free trail.

Read More about Morning News – 24/07/2021

July 23, 2021 - Morning News – 23/07/2021

Good morning… Today I am going to be hooking up my email system to my CRM (customer relationship management) system and so… I shall be offline for parts of the day. Basically, the CRM system works as a sort of digital personal assistant. This should help me get better control of my time and better […]

Read More about Morning News – 23/07/2021

July 22, 2021 - Morning News – 22/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Another incredibly hot day for me yesterday…

But I did manage to get some work done until I had to give up.

The problem for me is that I am surrounded by 5 computers and 9 screens; each of which pump out heat.

I did manage to come up with the new strategy for the win bets for the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio Bets.

These are free to Focus Ratings members – anyone else who gets this email can request access to those selections until I can sort out the admin work to sort out a £10 a month service for my members (for all my services) as opposed to the normal £25 cost a month.

And, speaking of Admin Work…

Admin Work…

Next week is very much going to be an admin week.

I am installing a CRM (Customer Relationship Management) system to help me better manage my time with Focus Ratings and all the other services.

This should help me keep on top of my email and all the various projects that seem to pop up.

Read More about Morning News – 22/07/2021

July 21, 2021 - Morning News – 21/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

OK – I freely admit…

As I explained yesterday morning that, I overslept and, thus, started the day well behind my schedule.

I’m not sure why I overslept but the bars in the village square (where I live) were open until very late.

When young French people get drunk they don’t go out and nick cars (or, at least, not in my village they don’t) or start fights…

They start singing.

And they don’t sing the latest Kylie Minogue single,

They tend to sign whatever their Dads or Grandads used to sing 25 to 50 years ago.

It’s nice but it doesn’t really help me sleep.

I also have to admit that, at lunchtime, I had to give up on work anyway.

I know that you’ve got a heatwave in the UK (and Ireland, as well – perhaps the rain is a little bit warmer?) but over here it is extremely hot.

I’m stuck between 5 computers and 9 screens – all pumping out heat.

I worked hard until lunchtime but then I gave up.

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Then I went to my local PMU (French Betting Shop) for my lunch.

The beauty of the terrasse there is that it’s at the end of the lake and gets a bit of breeze on the really hot days.

I had Sausage and Chips; now, I can cook sausage and chips quite well myself but…

It sure tastes an awful lot better if someone else is cooking it for you and, more importantly,

Washing the dishes themselves afterwards!

If you want to find out what a PMU is, you could always read… Why your local PMU ain’t you local bookies shop.

Onto the serious stuff…

Some of the work that I did mange to do was to update the results for Place Profits.

This has got a bit out of hand but I now know that if I update the results every day I won’t have a day like yesterday, having to update a month’s results, in the heat (wearing only my boxers), all in one day.

The results yesterday, for all the services except for the Investment Betting selections, weren’t wonderful but…

I have to report them whether they are good or bad.

Today I have booked a table at the new bar next door to me (Beer, Pizza & Ice Cream and, possibly, more beer.)

They’ve only been open less than a week but you have to book a table in advance – they’re that busy.

Read More about Morning News – 21/07/2021

July 20, 2021 - Morning News – 20/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Once again…

I seem to have overslept and, as a result, the selections and so forth are all going to come out later than usual.

I do apologise for that.

We made a loss on the R9 Portfolio selections yesterday but that is coming off a day when every selections either successfully won or got placed (according to the bet type) so I’m not too worried.

The Place Bets were profitable and, from today, I shall be trialing them for members of Place Profits.

After a week or so I shall individually contact all members of Place Profits to see if they want to move to the R9 based selections.

I need to sort out a spreadsheet to show the sense of doing this – it’s all about getting a slightly lower strike rate but a massively higher profit on the successful place bets.

Read More about Morning News – 20/07/2021

July 19, 2021 - Morning News – 19/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have to admit that the heatwave that we are experiencing did impact on my workload over the weekend but I did manage to get a fair bit done.

I have a full timetable of work arranged for this week and…

Should have some news to impart during the week.

I have a new 3 strategy Win Backing strategy for the R9 Portfolio bets which should allow higher priced selections than we currently get.

The R9 Portfolio selections are free to Focus Ratings members but Place Profits, EarlyBird Ratings and Intelligent Ratings members (free or full) can take a trial of the service until I get the pricing sorted out.

Just send me an email to get added to the list.

Which brings me to…


R9 Portfolio Results.

Race 1: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.382

Stratford – 14:30 – Wbee – Win Bet (0.551) – 1st @ 2.66

Stratford – 14:30 – Wbee – Place Bet (0.214) – 1st @ 1.59

Race 2: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.329

Curragh – 15:55 – Create Belief – Place Bet (0.329) – NR

Race 3: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.446

Redcar – 16:35 – Bankawi – Place Bet (0.446) – 2nd @ 1.78

————————————————————————–

Advised Bet – 5 points bet on one race.

Race 3 – Redcar – 16:35 – Bankawi (Place Bet) – 5 Points – 2nd @ 1.78 (3.822 points profit)

Bankers Bets – 10 points bet on 2 races.

Race 1 – Stratford – 14:30 – Wbee (Win Bet) – 4.54 Points – 1st @ 2.66 (7.385 points profit)

Race 1 – Stratford – 14:30 – Wbee (Place Bet) – 1.76 Points – 1st @ 1.59 (1.0176 points profit)

Race 3 – Redcar – 16:35 – Bankawi (Place Bet) – 3.68 Points – 2nd @ 1.78 (2.8129 points profit)

Chancers Bets – 10 points bet on 3 races.

Race 1 – Stratford – 14:30 – Wbee (Win Bet) – 3.57 Points – 1st @ 2.66 (5.8076 points profit)

Race 1 – Stratford – 14:30 – Wbee (Place Bet) – 1.39 Points – 1st @ 1.59 (0.8036 points profit)

Race 2 – Curragh – 15:55 – Create Belief (Place Bet) – 2.13 Points – NR

Race 3 – Redcar – 16:35 – Bankawi (Place Bet) – 2nd @ 2.89 Points 2nd @ 1.78 (2.209 points profit)

Conclusion…

Had you backed the Bankers bets to a total 10 point stake you would have made 11.2155 points profit to your 10 points staked.

A good day, overall.

Read More about Morning News – 19/07/2021

July 17, 2021 - Morning News – 17/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

As far as the R9 Portfolio bets were concerned, we were let down by Flyin Solo (Place Bet) which came 3rd.

Still, had you bet to the advised stakes you would have made 0.572 points profit to the 10 points staked assuming that you had bet the Chancers Bets.

So, not a total washout and…

If we are to get the stupendous results that we witnessed on Thursday, we also need to expect the less good days to compensate.

Now, although there won’t be a Morning News tomorrow, I shall be working all weekend to audit a new Win betting strategy for the R9 Portfolio selections; this will use the philosophy behind the Place betting strategies.

I will also start putting the historical selections and results online, working backwards from today.

In other news…

Just over a week a go I mentioned that, what used to be the Tourist Office next door to me, had moved across the market square to a more appropriate building. The vacant building next door to me was bought by a coupe who planned to turn it into a bar.

Well, the bar opened yesterday.

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Now, on one hand, having a bar just 5 yards from your front door might seems like heaven; especially a bar that serves Pizza, Beer and Ice Cream.

On the other hand, it is surely going to be a temptation that might impinge on my workload.

We’ll have to see how it works out.

Read More about Morning News – 17/07/2021

July 16, 2021 - Morning News – 16/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

The R9 Portfolio selections continue to amaze…

The top rated race (our Advised Bet) was the 14:10 at Chepstow where our selection was a Place Bet on Grandstand.

Grandstand came second with a place price of 3.74.

These are yesterday’s selections…

Race 1: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 1.978

Chepstow – 14:10 – Grandstand – Place Bet (1.978)

Race 2: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.415

Leicester – 14:23 – Mars Landing – Win Bet (0.611)

Leicester – 14:23 – Mars Landing – Place Bet (0.220)

Race 3: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.712

Leicester – 15:53 – The Attorney – Win Bet (1.048)

Leicester – 15:53 – The Attorney – Place Bet (0.377)

Race 4: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.718

Epsom – 20:20 – Otago – Win Bet (1.048)

Epsom – 20:20 – Otago – Place Bet (0.389)

Race 5: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.394

Worcester – 20:30 – Kilchreest Moon – Place Bet (0.412)

Worcester – 20:30 – Buck’s Dream – Place Bet (0.377)
—————————————————————————————-

Advised Bet – 5 points bet on one race.

Race 1 – Chepstow – 14:10 – Grandstand (Place Bet) – 5 Points – 2nd @ 3.74 for the place

13.42 points profit on the 5 points staked.

Bankers Bets – 10 points bet on 2 races.

Race 1 – Chepstow – 14:10 – Grandstand (Place Bet) – 5.792 Points – 2nd @ 3.74 for the place

Race 4 – Epsom – 20:20 – Otago (Win Bet) – 3.068 Points – 1st @ 6.08 BSP

Race 4 – Epsom – 20:20 – Otago (Place Bet) – 1.139 Points – 1st @ 2.03 for the place

31.99 points profit to the 10 points staked.

Chancers Bets – 10 points bet on 3 races.

Race 1 – Chepstow – 14:10 – Grandstand (Place Bet) – 4.076 Points – 2nd @ 3.74 for the place

Race 3 – Leicester – 15:53 – The Attorney (Win Bet) – 2.159 Points – 1st @ 3.18 BSP

Race 3 – Leicester – 15:53 – The Attorney (Place Bet) – 0.776 Points – 1st @ 1.37 for the place

Race 4 – Epsom – 20:20 – Otago (Win Bet) – 2.159 Points – 1st @ 6.08 BSP

Race 4 – Epsom – 20:20 – Otago (Place Bet) – 0.861 Points – 1st @ 2.03 for the place

27.93 points profit to the 10 points staked.

Can you see…

Can you see why I am so excited about R9?

The three bet types allow people to manage risk and reward.

I have started going back through historical data but, only for the place selections.

Had you just used the best 3 place selections yesterday (and bet to level stakes, although I far prefer advised staking) you would have had 4.05 points profit (assuming a 2% commission) for your 3 points staked.

One of the strategies that just cries out to be looked at is to use a 10 point stake.

You then use the Chancers Bets place selections and bet 1 point on each of them to win.

The remaining 7 points are then shared over the 3 place bets but adjusted so that you are betting more on those selections with a higher Reward/Risk Ratio.

This would have worked very well yesterday.

From today I shall add a Place Bets section to the selections.

I’m a bit behind on my admin work but, if you are a Focus Ratings member you can get the R9 Portfolio selections email for free; just email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Members of Place Profits, EarlyBird Ratings and Intelligent Betting (full or free) can get these selections for just £10 a month once I’ve got my arse in gear and got the PayPal and Clickbank stuff set up.

In the meantime, for members of those services, if you want the selections, just let me know and I’ll put you on the list – it’ll be a sort of free trial.

Now, I know that this is a totally new way of betting – at least, I’ve never seen another service that does this sort of thing.

Thus, I do need to write a series of articles to explain the philosophy behind it and, how the selections are worked out.

But, before then…

I need to invent a 25 hour day and an 8 day week.

Read More about Morning News – 16/07/2021

July 15, 2021 - Morning News – 15/02/02021

6620418Good morning…

I do have to apologise…

I realised that I forgot to mention on Tuesday that yesterday was a bank holiday in France and, thus, a day off for me.

Thus, no Morning News yesterday.

It’s the first time that I’ve seen the village really come to life for over a year.

4 of the 5 R9 Portfolio Place selections were successful yesterday.

2.077 points profit would have been made to the 5 points staked.

I have realised that I am going to go back though the last year’s selections manually to provide some historical detail.

I shall start that today.

Read More about Morning News – 15/02/02021

July 13, 2021 - Morning News – 13/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today I want to talk a bit more about the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio Selections.

I’ve received quite a few inquiries from Place Profits and Intelligent Betting members about this service.

Now, Focus Ratings members can get the selections for free but I am working on a low cost service for Place Profits and Intelligent Betting members.

Place Profits members might want to take a really good look at yesterday’s selections (hint, hint.)

Now…

Yesterday wasn’t an ideal example as we only had Place Bets.

Ideally we would have Win Bets, Place Bets and Lay Bets – often all in the same race.

The ideal race would be where we had 4 top 4 rated horses and we might Win Bet the top rated horse but also place bet it as well.

Then there might be a place bet on each of the second and third rated horse and a lay bet on the fourth rated horse.

In some cases the might even be a place bet on the fourth rated horse as well.

Yesterday’s selections…

Race 1: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.277

Dundalk – 13:35 – War Hero – PLace Bet (0.134)

Dundalk – 13:35 – Irish Aclaim – Place Bet (0.420)

Race 2: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.483

Dundalk – 15:20 – Zahee – Place Bet (0.483)

Race 3: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.131

Killarney – 17:15 – Horoscope – Place Bet (0.131)

Race 4: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.266

Killarney – 19:15 – La Petite Coco – Place Bet (0.266)

The numbers in the brackets are the Reward/Risk Ratio for that horse. It is, basically, the historical strike rate for that race type multiplied by the anticipated profit.

Now I don’t expect people to bet on all of those horses but, if they had, yesterday, this would have been the result…

Dundalk – 13:35 – War Hero – PLace Bet – 8th
Dundalk – 13:35 – Irish Aclaim – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.43
Dundalk – 15:20 – Zahee – Place Bet – 1st @ 2.34 (for the place)
Killarney – 17:15 – Horoscope – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.67
Killarney – 19:15 – La Petite Coco – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.16

So, 1.548 points profit for the day. Just by doing the place bets this looks pretty good as the prices are sometimes quite high.

Actual Bets…

However, yesterday I split up the selections into a number of bets (of suggested bets.)

Advised Bet – 5 Points bet on one race.

Race 2 – Dundalk – 15:20 – Zahee (Place Bet) – 5 Points – 1st @ 2.34 for the place.

So, a 6.566 points profit on the 5 points staked.

Bankers Bets – 10 points bet on 2 races

Race 1 – Dundalk – 13:35 – War Hero (Place Bet) – 1.292 Points – 8th – 1.292 points loss
Race 1 – Dundalk – 13:35 – Irish Aclaim (Place Bet) – 4.050 Points – 2nd @ 1.43 for the place – 1.7066 points profit
Race 2 – Dundalk – 15:20 – Zahee (Place Bet) – 4.657 Points – 1st @ 2.34 for the place – 6.11 points profit

So, a 6.5246 points profit on the 10 points staked.

Chancers Bets – 10 points bet on 3 races

Race 1 – Dundalk – 13:35 – War Hero (Place Bet) – 1.028 Points – 8th – 1.028 points loss
Race 1 – Dundalk – 13:35 – Irish Aclaim (Place Bet) – 3.223 Points – 2nd @ 1.43 for the place – 1.358 points profit
Race 2 – Dundalk – 15:20 – Zahee (Place Bet) – 3.706 Points – 1st @ 2.34 for the place – 4.866 points profit
Race 4 – Killarney – 19:15 – La Petite Coco (Place Bet) – 2.041 Points – 1st @ 1.16 for the place – 0.320 points profit

A 5.516 points profit on the 10 points staked.

An Explanation…

For the Advised Bet you only have one race; the best race of the day in terms of Race Reward/Risk Ratio.

So, you bet the entire 5 points stakes on that race.

However, if there are more than selections in that race, you split that stake up but, unlike dutching, rather than splitting the total/allocated stake up according to their starting prices, you split the stakes up according to the individual Horse Reward/Risk ratios so that you are betting more on the horse(s) with the higher Reward/Risk Ratio and less on those horses with lower Reward/Risk Ratios.

In the Bankers Bets and Chancers Bets selections, where you have more than one race, you just split your total stake up over the number of races but, allocating the stakes for each race according to the Race/Reward Ratio.

Conclusion…

Now, I am sorry that this is taking so long to come to fruition but it’s been a devil to audit and get right.

I’m sure that someone is going to ask for historical data…

Well, I’ve struggled to write the code to generate this so, if I am to do that, I will have to do it manually and that will take a lots of time.

But, today I will cut a spreadsheet with the relevant data and get started so that I have an idea of how long it is going to take.

Read More about Morning News – 13/07/2021

July 12, 2021 - Morning News – 12/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

All going well…

The Lay Betting module should be working for the Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio.

Also, the Advised bets and stakes should be on the email.

However, once again I have overslept so everything is going to come out a little later than normal.

Also…

Roy (my partner at Intelligent Betting) emailed me to let me know that he is having to go into hospital today for some surgery.

I’ll try to cover for him whilst he’s away.

Read More about Morning News – 12/07/2021

July 10, 2021 - Morning News – 10/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Although a slightly later start than I wanted today…

I think that I am on course to get a full day’s work done.

As tomorrow is my day off, there won’t be a Morning News but I should have some updates for you on Monday.

The new modules that I have added to the R9 Portfolio system gave us 19 bets over 14 races yesterday.

Now, I know that this is too many but…

By looking at the Race Reward/Risk Ratios for each race, we can pick and choose those that are potentially the most profitable.

As some point next week I shall be creating those choices automatically.

Had you backed all of yesterday’s selections you would have made 6.42 points profit on the day.

2021-07-10--1625893518_1220x826_scrot

Over the weekend I shall be adding in the Recent Returners and Lay betting modules.

This should further increase the profitability.

Read More about Morning News – 10/07/2021

July 9, 2021 - Morning News – 09/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have to admit…

That I was slightly distracted yesterday.

It was market day in the village and that’s always a distraction; a French market is always more of a social event than a shopping trip.

However, yesterday was more distracting than normal as there was a bagpipe band going round the market.

I don’t know if you’ve ever heard Breton bagpipes but…

Think of a bunch of cats being skinned alive – but all out of tune.

At 10am I just couldn’t take any more so I went for a walk around the lake just to get away form the cacophony.

Still, I did get a decent amount of work done and the Focus Ratings price rise is now on course for Monday.

It’ll be all out to finish the R9 Porfolio script.

We’ve now got the top rated win and place bets and the second rated place bets installed and, yesterday, although I haven’t updated the spreadsheet yet,

Looks like it was a profitable day.

For those of you who are interested in how, ahem…

Interesting Breton Bagpipe music is, here is a YouTube link to a typical example… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONBCAEKo8Lo&ab_channel=Sweeny123

Read More about Morning News – 09/07/2021

July 8, 2021 - Morning News – 08/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

My new timetable seems to be working.

Even thought the ratings and the Intelligent Betting emails are now coming out a bit later,

The space that I have cleared for myself in the early morning means that I can get far more done.

Today I am going all out to sort out the Focus Ratings price rise and get that out of the way.

Then it will be on to finishing the R9 Portfolio betting system (the automation of it) so that I clear even more time for myself.

It would be really nice to get that done by the end of the week.

I know that I have a habit of taking on too much work but…

I don’t actually see that as a bad thing as long as I organise my time properly.

My new daily, weekly and monthly timetables will help me do that.

Read More about Morning News – 08/07/2021

July 7, 2021 - Morning News – 07/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

After a full day of admin work yesterday…

I seem to have caught up on the backlog.

However, in order to get things more on course,

I will be changing my morning schedule a bit.

This means that some of the emails may come out a little bit later than normal.

This will just help me avoid the mad panic every morning when I try to get everything done at the same time.

Read More about Morning News – 07/07/2021

July 6, 2021 - Morning News – 06/07/21

6620418Good morning…

I would like to apologise for the slight lack of a Morning News yesterday.

For the second day in a row I overslept and, in fact, yesterday…

Once the ratings had gone out I went back to bed and got another 5 or 6 hours sleep (just as I did on Sunday.)

I think that I’ve come to the realisation that I’ve been doing a bit too much and, perhaps, Sunday and Monday were the result.

So, today I am going to prioritorise the remaining work and re-organise my task list to be a bit more realistic.

Today I am going to be catching up on some admin work and then, once that is out of the way, I’ll be back on the new R9 Portfolio strategy. Currently it is taking me over an hour a day to work out the selections so, by automating this process, I’ll be an hour a day better off.

Read More about Morning News – 06/07/21

July 3, 2021 - Morning News – 03/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Things are finally coming together and I will be publishing the document that explains the different types of ratings available later on this morning.

This will be available at Focus-Ratings.docx at about 9am.

I then have to put the finishing touches to a couple of R9 based strategies to add to the R9 Portfolio Selections.

After hours of analysis I have decided to break the Place Betting selections into 2 portions.

One will be high strike rate but lower individual returns and…

The other will offer higher prices but, with more risk.

This seems to make perfect sense to me as we will be able to choose those selections based upon the Race Risk Reward Ratio that I publish for every race.

I should have the spreadsheet available to view for tomorrow’s Morning News.

Read More about Morning News – 03/07/2021

July 2, 2021 - Morning News – 02/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday, unfortunately…

I got a bit distracted – there weather was good,

And, as a result, not as much got done as I had anticipated.

Today I will knuckle down and plug away.

I have 3 current mini projects that I will get finished today and then it’ll be back to the longer term projects and then onto the Focus Ratings price rise.

Read More about Morning News – 02/07/2021

July 1, 2021 - Morning News – 01/07/2021

6620418Good morning…

This will be a very short Morning News today as…

I am having an early start in order to get yesterday’s work finished.

The document that explains the evolution and differences between the different rating seems to be turning into my autobiography but,

It should fully explain the ratings and answer many of those questions that I get asked by new members.

It should be finished today.

Expect a link to the document tomorrow morning.

Read More about Morning News – 01/07/2021

June 30, 2021 - Morning News – 30/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today will be a day where I’ll largely be focusing (please excuse the pun) on Focus Ratings.

I’ve got to get the price rise sorted out…

Obviously, this doesn’t apply to existing Focus Ratings members but, we’ve been at the same price since 2014; it’s time that the new price reflect all the additional features that we’ve added since then.

One of the things that I need to do is to write a document that explains the difference between all the different ratings.

And I’ll also mention how you can tweak the ratings according to your own preferences.

In other words…

You start with the ratings and then add on additional filters (you’ll need to use the ratings in spreadsheet format) to create your own individual ratings.

I’ll provide a colour coded spreadsheet to explain some of the options.

Read More about Morning News – 30/06/2021

June 29, 2021 - Morning News – 29/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

A day spent coding…

And I’ve got nothing new to show but,

I do have a great framework for the R9 Portfolio bets that is almost complete.

And the good news is…

The spare PC is finally up and running.

Today’s task (or one of today’s many tasks) is to get Skype running on it.

Read More about Morning News – 29/06/2021

June 29, 2021 - Morning News – 28/06/2021

Good morning… After a busy weekend I still have a big chunk of coding to do in order to automate the R8 Portfolio selections but… I’ll probably be able to grind through that today. One of the important things that I have decided to add (even though it is more work for me) is a […]

Read More about Morning News – 28/06/2021

June 27, 2021 - Morning News – 27/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Ladies and Gentlemen…

I have become a believer!

A couple of weeks ago,

My next door neighbour (which happened to be the local Tourist Office) moved from next door to a far better property on the other side of the market square.

Last week some builders started doing some work on the property next door to me.

Yesterday morning I sort of happened to notice that a brewery lorry delivered some barrels of beer to the property next door to me.

I wondered why that was but, in the afternoon I kind of noticed (not that I’m a nosey neighbour) that the new owners of the property next door seemed to be building a Terrasse.

In my opinion, that someone has decided to convert the old tourist office (next door to me) into a bar (with a terrasse), only 5 yards from my front door is…

Proof Positive of the existence of a Kind, Benign and Benevolent God.

Thus, I have become a believer!

On a more sensible note…

I have done the analysis on the top rated Focus Ratings R9 horses for those of them who have had their last run in 14 days or less.

I get pretty much the same results that I mentioned yesterday for the Intelligent Betting top rated RSR horses.

This was no great surprise.

A little bit of tweaking and this will become an additional strategy for the R9 Portfolio selections.

The extra work is required because of the whole ethos of the R9 Portfolio strategy;

If we are convinced the the top rated horse is going to win, shouldn’t we also look at the chances of the second rated horse (where there is one) is going to be places and…

What about the third rated horse, shouldn’t that be layed?

I have created a bit of a monster for myself as, for every micro strategy I come up with, I need to analyise those 2 additional options; thus, 3 times the amount of work.

It all comes down to the concept of Betting The Race Rather Than Betting The Horse.

One last thing…

I have moved the ratings script back by 1 hour.

This means that the ratings will come out an hour later than normal.

This is to create a sweet spot for me to get additional work done prior to 6am in the morning.

Read More about Morning News – 27/06/2021

June 26, 2021 - Morning News – 26/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Whilst working on Easy Track at Intelligent Betting yesterday I tripped over something very interesting.

I had added in a filter to allow you to refine your alerts to different Race Codes. This might be useful to you if you are only interested in Black Beauty when he is running on Flat Turf but not too bothered when he runs on Flat All Weather (or, perhaps, over Hurdles.)

I then wondered about Recent Returners. What about a Trainer who has a habit of running a horse again soon after its last race to good effect.

So, I cut a spreadsheet (you can see it here… recent_returners.xlsx) based upon Intelligent Betting’s top rated horse on RSR (Really Simple Ratings.)

Now, I’m not going to go into too much detail explaining the spreadsheet; if you read it left to right it should all make sense.

1). Tab 1 shows the core data (top rated horse on RSR)

2). Tab 2 shows the analysis of those horse that have last run 14 days and less and 7 days and less.

3). Because I had colour coded the spreadsheet, it was obvious that there was some trend towards those horses it was the Trainer’s only horse in the meeting or the Jockey’s only ride in the meeting (or both.)

4). Tab 5 shows those horses that have run in the last 14 days (or less) since their last run and are those horses which are their Trainer’s only horse in the meeting or the Jockey’s only ride in the meeting (or both.)

5). Tab 6 shows the analysis of those races with reference to the Percentage RSR (the number of horses in the race that I can actually rate.)

The colour coding helps and Tab 7 shows those horses which are their Trainer’s only horse in the meeting or the Jockey’s only ride in the meeting (or both) but have also run in the last 14 days or less and are now running in a race where RSR can rate at least 40% of the horses in that race.

6). Tab 8 shows some Race Type analysis of those selections and shows that we can expect the following…

Strike Rate: 25.79%

Races/Week: 8.35

POI (Profit on Stakes): 56.65%

Points Profit per year: 227 (to BSP)

Read More about Morning News – 26/06/2021

June 25, 2021 - Morning News – 25/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Things seem to be coming together…

And it looks like I’ll be working through the weekend to get them finished off.

The tools that I am working on are only available to full members of Intelligent Betting.

The first of which is Easy Track. Now, this is a simple horse tracking service that allows you to set up alerts so that you get an email when a horse is running. The difference between this and the many other horse tracking services out there is that you can input a combination of filters such as…

Horse with a certain Jockey. Or, you could forget the horse and set up an alert for a Trainer running any horse at a certain course.

Or, perhaps an alert for any Trainer/Jockey combination.

I will be adding additional filters once I’ve got some feedback from the Forum at Intelligent Betting.

These might be Race Code so that you could set up an alert for a particular horse but, only when it is running on an All Weather surface.

The next tool will be Easy Stake. Now this is essentially a Dutching calculator but, rather than working out the stakes for a traditional Dutch bet (where you are betting on multiple horses in the same race), this allows you to calculate the optimal stakes for multiple horses running in different races. I intend to use this for one of my services (possibly the Early Bird Ratings Platinum selections as they are doing very well at the moment) for a limited period to prove that, by adjusting your stakes according to a Reward/Risk Ratio, you actually make more money and…

At the end of the day, that’s what it’s all about.

The third tool is Easy Records. This will allow you to record your bets and produce Losing Run analysis and stuff like that.

I don’t want to give timescales but Easy Track should be finished by Sunday with the first alerts being sent out on Monday morning. I have a free time slot early in the morning so you should expect to get your alerts shortly after 3am (GB/IRE time.)

Read More about Morning News – 25/06/2021

June 24, 2021 - Morning News – 24/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

I actually managed to get some work done yesterday.

It was a sort of two steps forward and one step backwards type of day.

However, I am still struggling with rebuilding the old PC.

I need this to be my Skype and Video recording machine.

It has to run Linux as that’s what I’m used to.

In the last case resort I could fire up my Mac but that’s getting a bit noisy and I don’t really have room for it on my desk.

On another issue…

The overnight script that sends me details of people requesting Free Trials of Focus Ratings looks like it hasn’t been working for a couple of weeks.

The database has new entries but I have not been getting the morning email listing those new requests.

If you have recently requested a Free Trial of Focus Ratings, I shall be adding you today.

Read More about Morning News – 24/06/2021

June 23, 2021 - Morning News – 23/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday, for me…

Was a day of one step forwards and then one step backwards.

As a result,

I don’t have too much to report.

However, I’m getting close to being able to publishing a new spreadsheet for the new R8 Portfolio selections.

Please bear with me.

Read More about Morning News – 23/06/2021

June 22, 2021 - Morning News – 22/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have been making real progress on the R9 Portfolio selections and, today…

I shall be working on a formula to work out the valid bets.

Unfortunately, the IT work that I was doing yesterday totally failed so I’m back on it today.

Fun, fun, fun.

Read More about Morning News – 22/06/2021

June 21, 2021 - Morning News – 21/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Now that Ascot is over…

I’m hoping that things can get back to normal.

I have this theory that festivals distort any systematic approach to racing.

Although I do have to say that, yesterday, we did have a nice winner from one of the three selections,

Pontefract – 15:25 – Katara – 1st @ 9.0 BSP

Today I need to catch up on the weekend’s emails and…

I’ve also got some IT to do.

I have to wipe my last Windows 10 machine to install Linux – Windows 10 doesn’t really do it for me.

That should be an easy thing to do – Famous Last Words.

Read More about Morning News – 21/06/2021

June 19, 2021 - Morning News – 19/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

As tomorrow is Sunday (and my day) off…

There will be no Morning News.

So I thought that I’d update you on the next stage of the new R9 Portfolio Bets strategy.

The easiest way to do this is to re-produce the email that I sent out to the Focus Ratings members who have asked for the Portfolio selections yesterday morning.

Good Morning

Here are today’s R9 Portfolio selections…

Race 1: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 0.99

Down Royal – 14:55 – Nymphhall – Win Bet – 4th

Race 2: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 2.72

Redcar – 15:50 – Almost An Angel – Place Bet – 6th

Race 3: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 2.67

Ascot – 16:20 – Pretty Gorgeous – Place Bet – 5th

Race 4: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 2.96

Redcar – 16:25 – Lilikoi – Place Bet – 5th

Race 5: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 1.22

Goodwood – 19:52 – Four Adaay – Win Bet – AB

Race 6: Race Reward/Risk Ratio = 2.21

Goodwood – 20:55 – Marsabit – Place Bet – AB

Goodwood – 20:55 – Iconic Queen – Place Bet – AB

Although I shall be reporting on every selection, it is obvious that races 4, 2 & 3 (in that order) are the ones to concentrate on.

The 4R (Race Reward/Risk Ratio) for each individual horse is the historic Strike Rate (and, thus, the likelyhood of that bet being successful) for that race type mulitplied by the anticipated Reward should that bet be successful.

If there is just one selection in the race then this becomes the Race Reward/Risk Ratio.

In race 6 there were 2 selections and the Race Reward/Risk Ratio is both of those horses’ 4R added together and divided by 2.

Logic tells me that Iconic Queen shouldn’t be a selection as it is the 3rd rated horse in a 7 horse race (and, thus, only 2 places paid) but, technically it is a valid selection.

However, it is a moot point should you just decide to concentrate on the best 3 races; after all, the more selections you choose, the more you dilute your stakes whilst further increasing your risk.

My kindest regards

Keith

The next stage, now that we can rate races (don’t worry, I’ll do this for you) is to dutch those races.

Read More about Morning News – 19/06/2021

June 18, 2021 - Morning News – 18/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today I’d like to explain how I intend the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio Service to work.

To do this, I am going to shamelessly use the email that I sent out to those Focus Ratings members who have asked to be on the mailing list for these selections (sorry, this service is only available for Focus Ratings members although I am working on a special offer for members of my other services.)

Good Morning

Here are today’s R9 Portfolio selections…

Race 1:

Ripon – 14:15 – Harlem Soul – Win Bet – 1st @ 2.81 BSP

Race 2:

Leopardstown – 19:30 – Quiet Desire – Place Bet – 4th

Leopardstown – 19:30 – Lunar Power – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.24 BSP

Race 3:

Ffos Las – 19:50 – Jersey Wonder – Win Bet – 2nd

Ffos Las – 19:50 – Jersey Wonder – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.40 BSP

Race 4:

Lingfield – 20:40 – Damned Elusive – Win Bet – 2nd

Lingfield – 20:40 – Damned Elusive – Place Bet – 2nd @ 1.55 BSP

Lingfield – 20:40 – Ladywood – Place Bet – 4th

In the 20:40 at Lingfield I was hoping that Horsefly (the 4th rated horse) would be a Lay Bet but…

It seems that Class 5 All Weather Handicaps are blindly profitable for 4th rated R9 horses. They have a 20% strike rate and, at the anticipated BSP the Reward/Risk Ratio, is less than zero.

In other words, you have a 75% chance of a successful Lay Bet which would give you 0.98 points profit but you have a 25% risk losing 3 points. The Reward/Risk Ratio is 0.98 and I need a Reward/Risk Ratio of at least 1.1 for a Lay Bet. To put it simply, there has to be more Reward than Risk.

Either tomorrow or Saturday every race will have a 4R number. 4R stands for Race Reward/Risk Ratio.

This will help identify which races to concentrate on.

Now, you are free to bet 1 point on each of today’s 8 selections but, early next week, I shall come up with a staking plan based upon the best race of the day and the best two races of the day.

Let’s say you are betting to £2 stakes (£2 a point) and, every day, you have 10 points to play with.

Let’s say that Race 4 is the best race of the day and Race 3 is the second best race of the day.

If you choose to concentrate only on the best race of the day you will have £20 to spread across the 3 bets.

Just from a quick look I imagine that the advised stakes would be 2.50 points (£5) on the Win Bet for the top rated horse, 5 points (£10) on the Place Bet for the top rated horse and 2.50 points (£5) on the Place Bet for the second rated horse.

In practice the numbers wouldn’t be as clean as that.

So, in a way, it’s a bit like a Dutch Bet but, unlike conventional Dutching, all three of your Dutch Bets can win (unlike conventional Dutching where, for one of your Dutch Bets to win, the other two have to lose.)

If you choose to bet on the top two races of the day you would be splitting your £20 over the 5 bets on those two races. But, you wouldn’t assign £10 to one race and £10 to the other race. Your £20 would be split across the 2 races according to the Reward/Risk Ratio for each of the 5 individual bets.

In a way, it’s a bit like Dutching multiple races rather than Dutching multiple horses in a single race.

It’ll all make more sense when I have some real world examples to show you.


Now, although these R9 Portfolio selections are free to Focus Ratings members, if you are a member of Intelligent Betting, EarlyBird Ratings or Place Profits, I will give you the option to sign up to these selections at £10 as opposed the normal £25 a month for this service.

I’ll let you know more about that early next week.

I should say that this service is very similar to the way I bet on horse racing in France (where I live.)

Living in France I’m not allowed to lay bets on Betfair but I do have a number of multiple bets that aren’t available on Betfair.

Thus I can bet on two horses to come first and second in the right order or, two horses to come first and second in any order; the cost of those bets are the same.

Obviously, I can do the same thing with three horses (or, even, four or five horses.)

Those tend to be my “Hail Mary” bets.

Then again…

I can’t Lay bet horses in France and that hurts as…

If you are sure that Black Beauty is going to win the race (he’s an odds on favourite) then you should be equally sure that Speedy Simon (the second rated horse) is going to lose the race.

If you’re going to back Black Beauty to win, you should also, realistically, lay Speedy Simon to lose; to level stakes you’ll make a higher profit on the lay bet on Speedy Simon than the win bet on Black Beauty. By adding a Place Bet to both horses you should be able to hedge your bet so that, whatever the outcome (assuming that both horses either win or place,) you make a profit. By varying your stakes according to the Reward/Risk ratio for each individual bet you will maximise your profits and, more importantly, minimise your losses.

It turns out that yesterday wasn’t such a great day for the R9 Portfolio selections but…

We didn’t lose too much and I’m very very glad that Horsefly wasn’t a Lay Bet as the bugger won at 3.15 BSP.

The results are a bit deceiving as I am showing them to level/equal stakes whereas, from next week, we will be using advised stakes. Thus the Place Bets will generally be bet to higher stakes than the Win Bets and, had we done that yesterday, we might even have made a profit.

Read More about Morning News – 18/06/2021

June 17, 2021 - Morning News – 17/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Although it was a pretty dismal day all round…

I’m not too worried.

Roy and I have our own (shared) ideas about racing during Festivals.

They tend to distort the racing so much that all races become hard to rate.

On the plus side…

One of our two Intelligent Betting selections won at 5.85 BSP.

As far as the new R9 Portfolio selections are concerned…

I am hoping to plug in the Lay Bets module today.

There looks like there are a couple of Lays in the same race assuming, that is, there’s a Win Bet to hedge them.

Read More about Morning News – 17/06/2021

June 16, 2021 - Morning News – 16/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

I made great headway on clearing down my email backlog yesterday and finally realised that…

Since about March, Roy and I have taken on an extra 1,400 members at Intelligent Betting and many of those have questions to ask.

Thus, the massive increase in emails.

I did find time to add another two modules to the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio Bets.

This will show 2nd and 3rd rated horses to Place Bet.

Thus, in some races there may a Win Bet on the top rated horse, a Place Bet on the top rated horse, a Place Bet on the second rated horse and a Place Bet on the third rated horse.

Speaking of the R9 Portfolio Bets…

pb01

We had a reasonable day, yesterday and…

We have now had 5 winning days in a row.

That’s really the aim; I don’t expect to make massive profits but I’d really like to avoid losing days.

The spreadsheet is available at… Portfolio.xlsx

As I add more and more modules to the system we will be spreading our stake over potentially multiple bets on the same race;

A bit like Dutching but the stakes get worked out differently (according to risk and reward) and are spread over potentially different bet types in the same race.

Once we have enough modules I will then be able to rate the races (once again, in terms of risk/reward ratio) and identify the best races to use.

As an example…

There may be 2 races which are identified as good Reward/Risk races.

There may be a Win Bet and three Place Bets and a Lay Bet on the first race and just a Win Bet and two Place Bets on the second race but the stakes are worked out over the eight resulting bets.

So, it’s a bit like Dutching but actually Dutching multiple bets (and bet types) over multiple races.

Ideally, for any day, the total stake would be based upon the original betting bank adjusted to the likely reward for that day’s chosen races.

It’s illogical to just bet to £10 stakes; what happens if there are 10 bets one day and only 2 the next day.

It’s more about achieving the maximum reward at the minimum risk and…

The more opportunities to profit from a race (or, a number of races), the easier this is to do.

Cutting out the losing days is the aim.

Over at Intelligent Betting…

The new system that Roy is trialing on the forum had a winning day.

In the first 15 days of this month it has increased the bank from £1,000 to £1,792.

There is a spreadsheet of the results (since the start of the month) here… Improving-Expert.xlsx

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This is really looking a very good way of good way of choosing horses that are improving in quality and, thus, are more likely to win.

Read More about Morning News – 16/06/2021

June 15, 2021 - Morning News – 15/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

I’ve made a decision to not do any more development work today until I have cleared the email backlog.

That’ll be a great incentive for me to get the emails under control.

The R9 Portfolio bets made another small profit yesterday – we have increased the bank by 17.94% over the last week.

Over at Intelligent Betting the new system that Roy is trialing has increased its bank by 75% over the last 2 weeks.

Once I have cleared down the outstanding emails…

I shall get back to working on the R9 based Portfolio bets.

Read More about Morning News – 15/06/2021

June 14, 2021 - Morning News – 14/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well, whilst Saturday was fairly productive for me…

I did take yesterday off.

As a result I have got some catching up to do.

Today I shall be plugging in the module that works out the Race Co-efficient for the new R9 Portfolio Bets.

This will allow you, in terms of risk and reward, to choose the races to concentrate on.

From today I shall not be sending out the selections to all and sundry – if you are a Focus Ratings member and wish to continue receiving the selections, drop me a line to let me know.

I shall be switching off my email this morning so that I can concentrate on catching up; I’ll be replying to emails this afternoon.

Read More about Morning News – 14/06/2021

June 12, 2021 - Morning News – 12/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

A busy weekend ahead of me as I go all out to finish the Focus Ratings R9 selection process.

I hope to have good news to share on Monday.

Then, next week…

I guess that I’ll be tied up with Royal Ascot.

Read More about Morning News – 12/06/2021

June 11, 2021 - Morning News – 11/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Not a good day for the new Focus Ratings R9 based service, in terms of results but…

I did get the dutching part finished.

Today I’ve got to finish an additional Place Betting system to add to the portfolio.

I’m also going to identify the Laying opportunities.

Then I have to do the really difficult part and write the blog posts to document the service.

As I tend not to get too many emails over the weekend I shall attempt to get that done and dusted for Monday.

The whole idea is to identify all potential bets for any R9 rated race.

Then, grade those races in terms of Reward/Risk.

Thus, every race will get a sort of rating.

You will be able to choose to bet the top rated rate or the top two and so forth.

For every race a nominal 10 point stake will be split into the different stakes for each of the individual bets for that race.

If two races are chosen then the 20 points stake will be divided across the two races but, it won’t be 10 points for each race, the more potentially profitable (and, thus, higher rated) race will get a higher percentage of the total stake.

Anyway, that’s the idea and that’s how I do my horse racing over here in France.

As an example…

If, for a race, R8=4 – thus, there are four horses showing on the R9 PDF,

There might be a Dutch Bet for all four horses or just the top three horses.

There might be a Win bet on the top rated horse.

There may be a Place bet on the top rated horse.

There may be a Place bet on the second rated horse (and, even, a Place bet on the third rated horse.

There may also be a lay bet on the fourth rated horse should the price be low enough.

Read More about Morning News – 11/06/2021

June 10, 2021 - Morning News – 10/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

I do have to admit that I was a little of a slacker yesterday…

For the first time this year the restaurants are allowed to open (terrasse only) and…

I snuck out for lunch.

As a result, I didn’t get that much work done yesterday afternoon.

Intelligent Betting – ROFT

Roy had another great day with his Roy’s One For The Day selection yesterday.

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And his new Trial system that he is live trialing on the forum is also going great guns.

Today I’ll be trying to catch up on the Portfolio Bets system/service for Focus Ratings.

Hopefully I’ll have good news for you tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 10/06/2021

June 9, 2021 - Morning News – 09/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

The work on the dutching part of the Portfolio bets is continuing and…

I should be able to make some more headway today.

I also have a new place betting strategy to plug in as well.

On their own, the R9 top rated horses are doing pretty well…

Yesterday there were 7 rated races (taking the non-runner into account.)

From those 7 races we get 3 winners (and a second) so, a pretty good basis for our portfolio selections.

Read More about Morning News – 09/06/2021

June 8, 2021 - Morning News – 08/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday I published the selections for the first part of the R9 based Portfolio Bets that will be available for free for Focus Ratings members.

Today I hope to plug in the Dutching module.

The spreadsheet that supports the first stage of the project is available at… R9-Portfolio-V1.xlsx

There were 6 selections:

Leicester – 13:30 – Healing Power – Win Bet – 3rd

Leicester 14:00 – No Recollection – Place Bet – 3rd (7 horse race)

Leicester – 14:30 – Highest Ground – Win Bet – 1st @ 1.91 ISP (2.17 BSP)

Gowran Park – 14:50 – Hidden Spark – Win Bet – 2nd

Gowran Park – 17:25 – Aurora Princess – Win Bet – 1st @ 4.33 ISP (4.63 BSP)

Pontefract – 18:15 – Mr Waygu – Place Bet – 1st @ 1.69 (for the place)

So, although a profitable day I was hoping to do better.

As the other modules are plugged in it will make more sense we will have more opportunity to choose which races we portfolio bet.

I shall be writing a post today to explain the process but the spreadsheet is fairly logical if you work from left to write.

The final tab of the spreadsheet explains the selection criteria.

For those of you who are not members of Focus Ratings, tomorrow I shall explain how you may get access to the selections – it’s complex.

Read More about Morning News – 08/06/2021

June 7, 2021 - Morning News – 07/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

There were 5 Focus Ratings R5 rated races yesterday.

For the top rated we only got 1 win and 1 third but the win did pay 6.20 BSP so it was yet another blindly profitable day.

For Intelligent Betting’s System Selections there were 3 selection and one winner…

13:45:00 – Goodwood – Perotto – 1st @ 5.0 ISP (6.20 BSP)

Also, at Intelligent Betting, Roy’s One For Today (ROFT) finished another profitable week; that makes it 4 profitable weeks from the 5 weeks that the service has been running.

Last week (Monday to Sunday) there were 2 winners from the 7 selections and returned 11.24 points (assuming a 2% Betfair commission) to the 7 points staked.

Yesterday’s selection came third and Betfair paid 6.28 for the place.

Roy did suggest to me yesterday that for those selections forecast at 5.0 or greater should be bet each way. There were 3 such selections last week and 2 of them were placed. Had those 3 high priced selections been place bet on Betfair another 6 points would have been added to the profit pile.

Actually, Roy has another system that he is Live Trialing on the Forum. It made 40 points profit over the weekend. Although there were some losing days last week, the system has made 30 points profit for the first 6 days of June.

This week I have some admin work to do in order to prepare for the Focus Ratings price rise. I shall be doing a special offer for any of you who are not Focus Ratings members so that you can sign up at an attractive price before the price rise comes into effect. Email me for details.

Read More about Morning News – 07/06/2021

June 5, 2021 - Morning News – 05/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

As it is my birthday today…

I am planning to take the day off.

There will be no Morning News tomorrow as it is Sunday so,

I wish you all a nice weekend.

I am planning a nice long walk in the forest and a day away from the computer.

Read More about Morning News – 05/06/2021

June 4, 2021 - Morning News – 04/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have to say that…

I was not a happy bunny yesterday.

The overnight problems took up most of my morning to sort out and, thus, not a lot of real work got done.

Hopefully, I’ll get more work done today.

Last night most of the overnight scripts ran fine and the two that didn’t run have been manually kicked off.

As a result, I hope that today I can get some real work done and…

Have some good news to report tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 04/06/2021

June 3, 2021 - Morning News – 03/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

After a couple of days where I have got an immense amount of work done,

I seem to have massively over slept today.

Which is a shame as all the things that I had planned to do early this morning didn’t get done.

Also, one of the scripts that runs overnight didn’t run and, as a result, I have a hard morning ahead of me, manually running the scripts to get everything going.

I’ve just kicked off the script that sends out the ratings but I do have to say that some things will be delayed today.

The main victim will be Intelligent Betting – the Trainer Strike Rate data, for example, won’t be available until about 9am.

Still, I did get a good night’s sleep.

Obviously I am a bit pressed for time today but I did want to mention the Focus Ratings R9 results…

Ayr – 13:45 – Tommy G – 1st @ 6.42 BSP (1.86 Place)
Nottingham – 14:05 – Rainbow Mirage – 6th
Ayr – 14:18 – Greengage – 1st @ 2.34 BSP (1.54 Place)
Nottingham – 14:35 – Crimson Sand – 3rd
Nottingham – 15:10 – Puckle – 1st @ 4.85 BSP (1.66 Place)
Cartmel – 16:05 – Pepper Street – 2nd (1.80 Place)
Nottingham – 16:15 – Lightning Attack – 8th
Curragh – 17:30 – Sonaiyla – 1st @ 2.96 BSP (1.47 Place)
Curragh – 18:00 – Notoriously Risky – 3rd (1.58 Place)
Curragh – 18:30 – Patrick Sarsfield – 2nd (1.98 Place)
Kempton – 19:20 – Royal Pleasure – 2nd (1.17 Place)

Blindly profitable for the win bets but,

Also blindly profitable for the place bets.

Something for me to look into, I think.

Read More about Morning News – 03/06/2021

June 2, 2021 - Morning News – 02/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

Once again I did manage to get an awful lot of work done yesterday….

I’m not sure how, one day, I can slave away for 8 hours and…

It looks like I’ve accomplished nothing at all and yet, on other days,

After a just few hours work, I get a whole week’s work done.

Let’s start with Intelligent Betting.

Intelligent Betting

The new colour coded morning email worked yesterday and…

Today I am hoping that that email will contain Meeting PDFs.

These will be the Expert Cards but, one PDF for each meeting.

On another point…

There is now a Forum on Intelligent Betting – there are many ways of using the unique information at Intelligent Betting and a forum is a good way to share ideas on just how to do that.

Focus Ratings

The new R9 ratings didn’t do as well a I expected yesterday but…

From the 8 rated races (taking the non-runner into account) we got,

1 win, 3 2nds, 3 3rds and 2 non placed.

Had you Place Bet all 8 top rated horses you would have made (assuming a Betfair commission of 2%) 2.5276 points profit on the 8 points staked.

Food for thought, eh?

From the initial analysis of the 5 years of R9 data I do know that they are blindly profitable for place betting; I guess that it will be worth while trying to find some filter to increase the profits and to try to understand why we get so many high priced place returns.

Compass Ratings

Today I shall be studying the meeting at Happy Valley to see how well the new Compass Ratings Plus Plus ratings perform.

These not only have the Jockey Strike Rate (Compass Plus) adjustment but also have a similar adjustment for Draw Bias (taking distance into account.)

I shall be reporting on the success (or otherwise) tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 02/06/2021

June 1, 2021 - Morning News – 01/06/2021

6620418Good morning…

I did manage to get an awful lot of work done yesterday….

But, where do I start?

Let’s start with Intelligent Betting.

Intelligent Betting

Once again,

Roy’s Once For the Day (ROFT) selection did its business.

His selection won at 2.50 ISP ( 2.84 BSP)

These are his selections over the last few days…

2021-05-31--1622483363_640x279_scrot

For the System Selections we had 3 winners from the 8 selections.

A pretty nice result on the day…

2021-05-31--1622480754_587x228_scrot

I shall also be making a few changes to the morning email that Full members of Intelligent Betting receive.

The different links will be numbered and some of them will be colour coded.

Compass Ratings

I have finally finished all the updates to Compass Ratings.

At some point this morning I shall be publishing the ratings for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley.

Those ratings will include the new CPR Plus Plus ratings.

Let me explain…

CPR (short for Compass Ratings) are the original standard ratings.

CPR Plus are the original ratings but also take Jockey Strike Rate into account.

CPR Plus Plus are the CPR Plus ratings but also take Draw Bias (very important at Happy Valley) into account.

Read More about Morning News – 01/06/2021

May 31, 2021 - Morning News – 31/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

I’ve got a very busy week coming up.

I’m quite keen to clear down my To-Do list and I’m going to go all out to make that happen this week.

So…

Let’s take a look at the individual services…

Intelligent Betting

As far as Intelligent Betting is concerned…

For the new RSR Plus ratings, our first rated race had a top rated winner.

In the 14:47 at Uttoxeter, Back on the Lash won at 2.37 ISO ( BSP)

As far as the System Selections are concerned,

2 Selections – 2 winners – at 2.00 BSP and 6.89 BSP

Two out of two isn’t bad – Roy and I can’t really do any better than that.

Focus Ratings

A great day with both Investment Betting selections winning and the only EarlyBird Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selection winning.

After a great deal of thought, I have decided to increase the price of Focus Ratings.

The last time the price was increased was in 2014 and members now get a far lot more for their money.

This will not effect existing members – they will always pay the price that they paid when they signed up.

Read More about Morning News – 31/05/2021

May 29, 2021 - Morning News – 29/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday, at Intelligent Betting I did some analysis on the RSR Plus spreadsheet.

The updated spreadsheet may be seen here… RSR_Plus.xlsx

Yesterday there were 8 RSR Plus rated races,

From those races there were two top rated winners…

Haydock – 19:20 – Highfield Princess – 1st @ 3.99 BSP
Haydock – 17:55 – Kapono – 1st @ 7.892 BSP

So, those ratings were blindly profitable once again.

Speaking of Intelligent Betting, there were 7 system selections yesterday.

Only 1 winner but it did win at 8.80 BSP.

Tomorrow is my day off so there will be no Morning News.

Unless, of course, I have something really important to say.

Read More about Morning News – 29/05/2021

May 28, 2021 - Morning News – 28/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Another day when a lot of work got done but…

There’s not much to show for it.

However, whilst coding the code for the Focus Ratings R9 daily selections,

I did manage to produce an initial spreadsheet based upon the Intelligent Betting RSR Plus ratings.

That spreadsheet may be seen here… RSR_Plus.xlsx

I kind of like that spreadsheet because it has lots of green.

Especially for the Place selections for the top rated RSR Plus horse.

And I do like the prices that the winners do come in at.

Overall, blindly place betting the top rated horse loses us about 300 points over 6,600 races over 5 years.

Just by putting in a few simple filters (such as no 7 horse races) should make it profitable.

By choosing certain race types, it will become even more profitable.

And…

Speaking of Intelligent Betting,

Yesterday there were 4 Intelligent Betting System Selections.

2021-05-27--1622146838_653x293_scrot

The first selection won at 3.80 BSP.

The next two selections did nothing but…

The last selection won at 12.50 BSP

In other words…

A pretty good day overall.

Now, at Intelligent Betting we have recently raised our prices.

However, if you are currently a FREE member of Intelligent Betting Roy and I are quite prepared to let you into FULL Membership of Intelligent Betting for the old price.

Intelligent Betting used to cost £10 a month – now, after the price rise it costs £19.95 a month but…

By using this link… Intelligent Betting – Old Price you can sign up to FULL membership of Intelligent Betting for the old price of just £10 a month and get those 12.50 BSP Winners.

This offer is only available to current FREE members of Intelligent Betting.

The link to this one off offer is here… Sign me up at the old price

This is what the last few days have given us…

2021-05-27--1622147988_658x359_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 28/05/2021

May 27, 2021 - Morning News – 27/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Although I did get a lot of work done yesterday…

At this point I don’t actually have much to show for it.

And I did sort of get distracted by the meeting at Happy Valley.

From the 9 races thee were two top rated (CPR) winners )3 for the new CPR Plus ratings.)

In the 2nd race our top rated horse for both ratings won @ 2.90

In the 3rd race our normal rating’s top rated horse came 5th; our CPR Plus top rated horse won @ 2.60

In the 4th race the top rated horse for both sets of ratings was the same.

A La King won the race at 19.0

In the 7th race both sets of ratings had the top two but, in the wrong order.

So, for the new ratings we got 3 top rated winners from the 9 races and 24.50 points returned to the 9 points staked.

Read More about Morning News – 27/05/2021

May 26, 2021 - Morning News – 26/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have published the latest (and final) version of the spreadsheet that identifies opportunities for the Focus Ratings new R9 ratings.

I will be publishing a post later on today so that I can explain it but…

You are welcome to take a look at the spreadsheet which may be found here… R9-analysis.xlsx

Once again…

The strategy is to have multiple bets on one race.

The spreadsheet only shows the win and place strategies; once I have got the code for them finished I shall move onto the lay strategy.

It seems obvious to me that if we are sure that the top rated horse is going to win, we should be equally sure that the third rated horse (if cheap enough) has to lose.

The code to work out the selections is quite complex but I will get started on it today.

For full members of Intelligent Betting, obviously exactly the same principle can be applied to the RSR Plus ratings.

I shall attempt to get a spreadsheet for that done over the weekend so that, even though we won’t have an automatic selection process for a few weeks…

I will be able to use that spreadsheet to manually produce the selections.

So now I guess that the only other thing I’ve got to do is to…

Invent a 25 hour day and an 8 day week so that I’ve got time to get it all done.

Read More about Morning News – 26/05/2021

May 25, 2021 - Morning News – 25/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

After 2 days off I am feeling refreshed and raring to go.

Yesterday was a pretty good day all round.

For Intelligent Betting there were two RSR Plus rated races…

In the first race we did nothing at all but, in the second race (Ludlow – 15:50), the top rated horse (Valseur Du Granval) won at 3.75 ISP (4.10 BSP)

Similarly, at Focus Ratings the new R9 ratings had 11 selections.

Ludlow – 13:15 – White Turf – 2nd
Brighton – 14:10 – Good Earth – 1st @ 2.08 BSP
Ludlow – 14:50 – Schnabel – 2nd
Wolverhampton – 15:30 – Samoot – 5th
Brighton – 15:40 – Lochanthem – 1st @ 7.59 BSP
Wolverhampton – 16:00 – Spirit Of Rowdown – 9th
Brighton – 16:10 – Genesius – 4th
Brighton – 17:20 – Lets Go Lucky – NR
Ballinrobe – 18:00 – Listenheretomejack – 8th
Ballinrobe – 19:00 – Ciankyle – NR
Windsor – 20:15 – Bad Company – AB

So, taking the non-runners and the abandoned meeting into account, slightly profitable for the day.

Obviously, a great day for Investment Betting and EarlyBird Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selections…

Both had a 100% strike rate yesterday; I can’t do better than that.

Because of my 2 days off there seems to be a bit of a backlog with my emails.

I shall attempt to get that cleared today.

Read More about Morning News – 25/05/2021

May 22, 2021 - Morning News – 22/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Just a heads up…

Tomorrow and Monday are both bank holidays over here in France.

I normally like to respect bank holidays and take them as days off but,

I am pretty gung ho about getting the Focus Ratings R9 based Portfolio bets finished so I might just plow on with that instead.

However…

The rules have just changed over here and the bars and restaurants are now allowed to open for terrace service.

We still have the 7pm curfew so the market square is very quiet in the evening – that might be one of the reasons why I have been sleeping better recently.

All week people have been installing their terraces outside the 4 bars and 4 restaurants in the market square (where I live) in my little village.

SDC10204

And so…

I feel that it’s quite likely that I may be slightly tempted,

To grab the laptop and sneak out to what I call my outside office;

Which just happens to be the terrace behind the bar at the end of the lake.

SDC10107

It’s a hard job but…

Someone’s got to do it.

The bank holidays do mean that there won’t be a Morning News for the next few days,

Unless…

I get the Focus Ratings R9 based system finished,

In which case I’ll want to tell you all about it.

Read More about Morning News – 22/05/2021

May 21, 2021 - Morning News – 21/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Finally…

I have worked out how to select the right Focus Ratings R9 rated races to do the compilation bets on.

I will be writing a post to explain the process.

I have decided to only use GB races as the Irish races, for some reason, don’t seem to work so well.

The same strategy might work equally well for the Intelligent Betting RSR Plus ratings.

Yesterday there were 5 RSR Plus rated races…

Market Rasen – 13:10 – Our top rated horse came second.

Market Rasen – 16:00 – No joy in this race.

Sandown – 18:25 – The race was won by our second rated horse.

Chelmsford – 18:40 – Our top rated horse (Habit Rouge) won the races @ 3.59 BSP

Sandown – 18:55 – Our top rated horse came second. The race was won by our second rated horse.

Once again, the whole idea is to have multiple win and place bets (to different stakes) on the same race.

Read More about Morning News – 21/05/2021

May 20, 2021 - Morning News – 20/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

An average day overall but…

Roy’s One For Today selection at Intelligent Betting came in at a decent price.

In the 14:30 at Yarmouth, Aria Rose won at 3.63 BSP

At Focus Ratings I am trying out a new approach today to identify which R9 races to use for the new Portfolio system.

Rather than focus (excuse the pun) on the number of meetings, I shall be looking at the actual number of R9 rated races.

This looks to be the better way of selecting valid races.

Read More about Morning News – 20/05/2021

May 19, 2021 - Morning News – 19/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Overall yesterday was a pretty good day all round.

I managed to catch up on most of the email backlog and…

Focus Ratings had an impressive day with a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 38.30%

The highlight for me was the 19:35 at Hexham where the ratings predicted the first 3 in the right order – the Trifecta paid £194.80 to a £1 stake.

The new Intelligent Betting RSR Plus ratings rated 7 races yesterday.

There were 2 top rated winners from those 7 races…

Hexham – 19:05 – Valse Au Taillons – 1st @ 5.73 BSP
Huntingdon – 17:25 – Coeur Serein – 1st @ 3.20 BSP

Once again…

These are just ratings and not tips/selections.

But, perhaps they do make a good basis for our own individual selections processes.

Read More about Morning News – 19/05/2021

May 18, 2021 - Morning News – 18/05/2021

Good morning… As yesterday was the last day before the Intelligent Betting price rise…. I was uncommonly busy, answering queries and so forth. I realise that I am slightly behind on emails but, I shall be catching up with them today. I did try to keep an eye on the Focus Ratings R9 races yesterday. […]

Read More about Morning News – 18/05/2021

May 15, 2021 - Morning News – 15/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

I did some more work on Focus Ratings R9 yesterday.

Just to refresh your memory (and for the members of Intelligent Betting who now receive this Morning News email)…

I have two primary ratings agencies;

Focus Ratings is a self learning ratings agency and produces its core ratings which I call R4.

Advance Ratings is a purely form based ratings agency and produces ratings which I call ADR.

So, two totally independent ratings agencies which produce ratings in totally different ways.

When both of those ratings agencies agree on the top rated horse, that race then becomes what I call a Focus Ratings R8 race.

For those races, I set R8 to equal 1.

If those two ratings agencies also agree that the second rated horses are second rated by both agencies then R8 equals 2, and so forth.

It’s a bit like the 3 guys on the old version of Top Gear agreeing on which car is the best hot hatchback or the best grand tourer – it almost never happens but, when it does, you know that it’s going to be a pretty good car.

R9 is just those R8 rated races where Focus Ratings can rate every horse in the race.

There aren’t so many of these races every day but, if you want to do some of your own analysis, you can see the raw data that I’m working from on this spreadsheet (containing just over 5 years of data)… http://focusratings.com/docs/R9.xlsx

Perhaps you’ll come up with an angle that I’ve missed.

The whole objective of my interest is to come up with a series of Portfolio bets that Focus Ratings members can subscribe to for free.

However, these will be bets that appeal to my way of betting where I bet the race rather than the horse. You can read about that strategy here… https://intelligent-betting.com/horse-racing/bet-the-race-not-the-horse/

So, the first thing to do is to select (on a daily basis) the races to bet on.

Initially I am going to use the following rules…

If there are 1 or 2 meetings, I shall select only 1 race to bet upon.

If there are 3 to 5 meetings I shall select 2 races to bet upon.

If there are 6 meetings or more I shall select 3 races to bet upon.

The selection of those R9 rated races to bet upon will be based upon the overall accuracy of the ratings.

For every selected race I shall (automatically) work out the best bets to take advantage of that race.

Thus, there may be a win bet on the top rated horse and a place bet on the top rated horse.

There may be a win bet on the second rated horse and a place bet on the second rated horse.

There may even be win and place bets (or, just a place bet) on the third rated horse.

Or, there could be a lay bet on the 3rd rated horse.

So, multiple bets on a single race.

It’s a bit like dutching but the stakes are worked out differently – they are worked out using a version of the Kelly Criterion which I touched upon here… https://intelligent-betting.com/horse-racing/the-kelly-criterion/

I’ll be working on this over the weekend and I will update you on my results early next week.

Finally, I would like to remind those of you who are Free members of Intelligent Betting that, on Tuesday the 18th of May, the price of Intelligent Betting is rising from £10 a month to £19.95 a month. This does not affect those people who are already Full members of Intelligent Betting who receive RSR (Really Simple Ratings), RSR Plus and our daily system selections as well as the new Expert Ratings.

So far this month, after just 2 weeks, our system selections have generated (assuming a 2% Betfair comission) a £276.06 profit on our initial bank of £200, betting to £10 stakes.

The actual results may be seen at http://intelligent-betting.com/results or you can look at the spreadsheet here… https://intelligent-betting.com/data/IB_May.xlsx

Once again, this is to £10 stakes based upon a £200 bank.

Personally, at this point I would take my profits and run but that is just a personal preference.

I would remove my £276 profits and put them aside to spend on red wine and smelly cheese (my 2 addictions and probably why, 18 years ago, I jacked in a perfectly good, well paid, job working as an IT Service Manager in the city to move to France) but might continue betting but to £5 stakes rather than the initial £10 stakes.

However, this is my personal preference and not advice for you; I will always report on the profits based upon level £10 stakes for every selection throughout the entire month.

I just like the idea of stopping at a profit but, not on a daily basis, but rather, at some point during the month when I can say to myself…

“I’ve made my bank in profits, I’ll take that money and run and, continue betting but at half normal stakes.”

Obviously, I’ll lose out if the system selections remain profitable but I don’t actually mind that – I’m very risk averse.

Read More about Morning News – 15/05/2021

May 14, 2021 - Morning News – 14/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

As yesterday was a bank holiday…

I did take the afternoon off and. as a result,

Not that much got done.

So, today it’s going to be a bit of a catch up day.

Ive just started compiling the ratings for Sunday’s meeting at Sha Tin as hope to be able to get them sent out later on today, in plenty of time for the racing.

Read More about Morning News – 14/05/2021

May 12, 2021 - Morning News – 12/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday was a bad day for the ratings all round.

We get these from time to time…

Where nothing seems to go right.

However, it all balances out in the end.

Intelligent Betting

Yesterday there was 1 RSR Plus rated race.

The top rated horse won the race.

The 3rd, 4th and 5th rated horse came in their predicted positions.

Read More about Morning News – 12/05/2021

May 10, 2021 - Morning News – 10/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

I have a feeling that this week is going to be a busy week for me…

With some new additions to Intelligent Betting and,

A Portfolio strategy for Focus Ratings,

Based upon R9.

After the weekend off I am slightly behind on emails but, those of you who are waiting on replies to emails, should be getting them today.

Read More about Morning News – 10/05/2021

May 8, 2021 - Morning News – 08/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today is a Bank Holiday over here in France.

And so…

I shall be taking the day off.

I do make a point of doing this as, otherwise, my job is 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year – apart from 3 or 4 days off at Christmas.

Just a heads up…

Next Thursday is also a day off and,

There are 2 more Bank Holidays in May to come after that.

I like May!

Read More about Morning News – 08/05/2021

May 7, 2021 - Morning News – 07/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today will largely be a day of admin work.

I’ve been putting it off but, even if I ignore it,

It doesn’t go away.

Those of you (mainly Intelligent Betting members) who have requested a free trial of Focus Ratings…

I’ll be setting those up today.

If I get all my boring admin work done today then it’ll be back to looking at the Focus Ratings R9 ratings.

There were only 6 R9 rated races yesterday but, from those, there were 2 winners.

To BSP (assuming a 2% commission) there would have been (had you blindly backed the top rated horse in every R9 rated race) a 2.0368 point profit on the 6 points staked.

This is now the 9th day in a row that R9 has been blindly profitable.

So, it’s kind of important that I get back to work on this.


Intelligent Betting

After a hiccup on Wednesday…

The Intelligent Betting selections were back on form yesterday.

Four winners from the 9 selections made about a £90 profit to the £90 staked.

2021-05-07--1620350617_863x517_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 07/05/2021

May 6, 2021 - Morning News – 06/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Whoopsidaisies

Now I do know that no one has said “whoopsidaisies” for fifty years and even then it was only little girls with blonde ringlets but…

I seem to have discovered a slight problem with my Free Trial code.

Currently I run the opportunity to take a 7 day free trial at Focus Rating (and/or Early Bird Ratings.)

There is a script that runs overnight to add new free trial requests and to delete those who have had their 7 day free trial.

I realised, yesterday, that that script no longer works.

I have fixed the error but today will have to manually fulfill any recent free trial requests.

This doesn’t affect any Focus Ratings members (as they don’t need a free trial to a service that they already subscribe to) but it may affect some of the new members of Intelligent Betting who have requested a free trial of Focus Ratings.


Intelligent Betting

Below is the performance so far this month.

2021-05-06--1620278512_514x839_scrot

After just 5 days,

The bank has risen to £556.

And that’s just betting to level stakes – no compounding, no ratcheting or anything like that.

Read More about Morning News – 06/05/2021

May 5, 2021 - Morning News – 05/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

I know that I’ve been banging on about Focus Ratings R9 ratings over the last few days but…

With good reason.

Yesterday wan’t such a great day in terms of strike rate but, had you blindly backed the top rated horse in every R9 rated race you would have made a profit.

R9

Yesterday there were 7 R9 rated races.

The performance of the top rated R9 horses is as follows…

Ayr – 13:45 – Keep The River – 12th

Ayr – 14:20 – Bootlegger – UR

Lingfield – 14:30 – Swiss Pride – 2nd

Ayr – 14:55 – The Ogle Gogle Man – 3rd

Wolverhampton – 18:00 – Omary Amber – 1st @ 10.00 ISP (11.34 BSP)

Southwell – 18:50 – Hahadi – 6th

Wolverhampton – 19:00 – Toplight – 8th

The real challenge now is to take these ratings and create a set of systems that allow us to best benefit from these new ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 05/05/2021

May 4, 2021 - Morning News – 04/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

I went out for a long walk around the lake yesterday.

I had a chat with the Ducks and then, another one with the swans.

The both seemed to agree with me but, just to make sure,

I did pop out to my local PMU (if you don’t know what this is, you should read this… Why a PMU isn’t your average bookies)

And I did come to a conclusion; I think that it is the right one.

I am now going to forget continuing with my strategy to come up with a combined betting strategy based upon R8 and, instead, I will use what I have learned to do the same thing with R9.

Read More about Morning News – 04/05/2021

May 3, 2021 - Morning News – 03/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

After a lovely weekend off I now realise that I have some serious thinking to do.

I have spent about 100 hours working on a combined strategy for utilising R8; so that we can place multiple bets of different types on the same race.

However, R9 is just so much better that I may have to write that work off or…

Rather, use the same principles but rely on R9 as the basis.

I am hoping that the R9 ratings will be published on the Focus Ratings morning email.

I am going to write a document that explains the difference between all the different ratings.

Yesterday’s R9 ratings may be seen here… http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-R9-2021-05-02.pdf

There were 12 R9 rated races yesterday.

These are the results for the top rated horse in each of those races…

Newmarket – 13:50 – Zabeel Champion – 1st @ 3.25 ISP (3.54 BSP)
Salisbury – 14:05 – Prince Alex – 4th
Sligo – 14:15 – Prairie Dancer – 2nd
Newmarket – 14:25 – Mystery Angel – 1st @ 7.50 ISP (7.91 BSP)
Salisbury – 14:35 – Oman – 1st @ 2.75 ISP (2.75 BSP)
Hamilton – 14:40 – Hochfeld – 2nd
Newmarket – 15:00 – Queen Power – 2nd
Salisbury – 15:10 – No Recollection – 1st @ 2.25 ISP (2.23 BSP)
Salisbury – 15:45 – Samoot – 1st @ 1.91 ISP (2.0 BSP)
Sligo – 16:30 – Slade Runner – 7th
Newmarket – 17:20 – Tawleed – 1st @ 5.0 ISP (5.45 BSP)
Hamilton – 17:25 – Pearl Of Qaatar – 1st @ 2.37 ISP (2.42 BSP)

Now, you have to bear in mind that these are just ratings, not tips.

I haven’t done any detailed analysis but it is obvious that you would have made a profit by blindly backing the top rated horse in every R9 rated race.

Also, you would have made a profit by place betting those same horses.

And, from a quick look, I think a profit would have been made by dutching the top 2 rated horses in the 4 races where there were more than 1 rated horse.

So, as you can see, a lot think thinking for me to do.

Read More about Morning News – 03/05/2021

May 1, 2021 - Morning News – 01/05/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today is a bank holiday in France.

Thus, I shall be taking the day off.

We have lots of bank holidays in May; this year there are 5 of them.

My job means that I work 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year (although I do get 3 or 4 days off at Christmas.)

So, I tend to observe bank holidays.

Normally I tend to go for a long walk in the forest and then treat myself to a meal out at lunchtime.

This year, obviously, that’s not possible but I’m sure that I’ll find something to do.

A Heads Up…

Whilst I’m out enjoying myself I shall leave you with something to ponder.

R9 is the R8 ratings but just for those races where I can rate every single horse in the race.

Normally I don’t rate a race unless I can rate at least 40% of all runners in that race.

The problem there is that, if I can only rate, let’s say, 5 horses in an 8 horse race…

Any of those 3 horses that I can’t rate might be the next Frankel or Kauto Star.

Perhaps I can’t rate those horses because they’ve been doing all their racing in America or France.

I feel far more comfortable when I can rate every horse in a race.

Yesterday’s R9 ratings can be seen at… http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-R9-2021-04-30.pdf

As you can see, there were 15 R9 rated races yesterday.

This is the performance for the top rated horses in those races…

Goodwood – 13:00 – Atlantas Boy – 1st @ 3.50 ISP (3.69 BSP)
Goodwood – 14:10 – Qaader – 1st @ 1.83 ISP (1.84 BSP)
Chepstow – 14:20 – Selsey Sizzler – 1st @ 2.50 ISP (2.64 BSP)
Mussleburgh – 14:30 – Swaffham Burbeck – 2nd
Goodwood – 14:45 – Alpinista – 1st @ 2.62 ISP (2.74 BSP)
Chepstow – 14:55 – Coul Kat – 4th
Mussleburgh – 15:05 – Ayr Poet – 1st @ 5.0 ISP (5.50 BSP)
Goodwood – 15:20 – Nelson Gay – 3rd
Chepstow – 15:30 – Holbache – 8th
Goodwood – 16:25 – Solar Screen – 3rd
Chepstow – 16:30 – Bluebell Time – 2nd
Musselburgh – 17:10 – Chookie Dunedin – 3rd
Newcastle – 17:15 – Splash Of Verve – 4th
Punchestown – 18:00 – Bob Olinger – NR
Newcastle – 20:25 – Ventura Express – NR

Now, you have to bear in mind that these are ratings, not tips.

5 winners from the 13 races (taking the 2 non-runners into account) gives a strike rate of 38.46%

15.45 points (to ISP) returned to the 13 points staked gives us 2.45 points profit which equates to an 18.84% profit on investment.

If basic ratings are performing like that then,

Any filters that you add can only improve performance.

Just something for you to ponder whilst I’m having the weekend off.

Read More about Morning News – 01/05/2021

April 30, 2021 - Morning News – 30/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Whoops…

Today it seems that I’ll largely be checking the overnight scripts.

The one that creates the Results PDF doesn’t seem to be running properly and,

Advance Ratings aren’t being created.

I have to do them myself.

It’s almost certainly a timing issue so it should be easy enough to work out.

It’s just not very productive.

Still, it’s all part of the job.

Read More about Morning News – 30/04/2021

April 28, 2021 - Morning News – 29/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday I got an amazing amount of work done.

I wish that I could say that my to-do list is getting shorter but…

That would be a lie.

However, the exercise book that contains my to-do list does seem a little bit lighter.

Today I am going all out to get the R8 based Portfolio bets finished.

Or, at least, the Win bets part of it.

Read More about Morning News – 29/04/2021

April 27, 2021 - Morning News – 27/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well, I have to admit…

That yesterday was the day from hell.

The worst day since the village lost internet access for 4 days back in 2018.

And it needn’t have been.

I do a lot of my work in the terminal; that means that I load a program that gives me a green screen (a bit like an old teletype terminal) and, I use a protocol called SSH to log into my server as though I were standing in front of it (even though it resides in a datacenter in Germany.)

Yesterday I lost the ability to do that. It turned out that my server’s IP address had been changed and I was trying to log into the old IP address.

Every morning my server produces what I call my “2am Test Ratings.”

These actually come out at 1am, my time, and the first thing I do every morning (whilst my coffee is peculating) is to check these test ratings.

They are normally OK but, occasionally they show a problem such as a missing meeting or similar.

These problems are easy to fix and I normally just log into my server, fix the corrupted file (it’s almost always a corrupted file) and re-run the test ratings. It takes about 2 minutes to do. I’d rather check the test ratings, fix any problems (if there are any) first thing in the morning than send out bad ratings.

Yesterday, obviously, because I couldn’t log into my server I couldn’t fix the 3 missing meetings that the test ratings showed.

So, the ratings were produced and, once I had got the problem resolved, I had to spend most of the day putting things right.

At 1pm (after about 10 hours work) I just gave up, switched the TV on and slobbed out.

Thus, no real, productive work got done yesterday.

I’ve just checked the Test Ratings; they are fine.

Just for fun, I’ve logged into my server; that worked first time.

However, I’ve just noticed that Advance Ratings didn’t run so, logged into my server, I just manually kicked off the script and they are being produced right now.

This is why it’s so important that I can log into my server; a small problem (which is easy to resolve) doesn’t become a major catastrophe.

Had I not been able to log in, there would be no Advance Ratings which means…

There would be no R5, R6, R6+, R7 or R8 ratings today as they all rely on Advance Ratings.

As a result there would be no Investment Betting or Place Profits selections.

Now, I don’t mind the occasional glitch – that goes with the job.

What upset me yesterday was watching the results of the glitch propagating through the system and me not being able to log in to fix the problem in time.

So, having fixed that tiny little glitch, perhaps, I’ll actually get some work done today (and catch up with those emails that I didn’t answer yesterday.)

Read More about Morning News – 27/04/2021

April 26, 2021 - Server Problems

6620418Good morning…

Well, that was painful.

I have finally got my server problems resolved.

Actually, it was nothing to do with the server; there was just a corrupt file.

This happens from time to time and that is why I run automatically Test Ratings at 2am. If they don’t work then I can log in to the server and fix the problem.

Today I tried to do that and couldn’t log in.

It turns out that the IP address of my server has changed and I was trying to log into the old IP address.

My hosting company swear that they sent me an email about the IP address change but I can’t find it anywhere.

Anyway…

I have kicked off the process of producing the ratings;

Advance Ratings should come out at about 10am, Focus Ratings at about 11am and Intelligent Betting at about 12:30pm.

As always…

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

Read More about Server Problems

April 26, 2021 - Morning News – 26/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Unfortunately, there seems to have been a problem/issue with the server last night.

I will try to resolve the issue and get the ratings out as soon as possible but it could be late morning before that happens.

I do apologise for this.

The ratings that you will receive at the normal time will be missing 3 meetings.

Read More about Morning News – 26/04/2021

April 24, 2021 - Morning News – 24/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

After the horrendous start to the day that I had yesterday…

I actually got an awful lot done.

Perhaps it was the momentum from the mad panic and rush to get everything updated and vaguely out on time or,

Perhaps it was the 3 cups of coffee.

Those of you who are members of Intelligent Betting (and it’s free so there’s no reason not to be) might have noticed that I’ve been adding a load of eBooks to the site.

Yesterday I uploaded 2 Stall Bias ebooks for the All Weather and the Flat.

They can be seen on the sidebar of the site.

I’ve got an awful lot to do over the weekend.

There won’t be a Morning News tomorrow but there will be a Sunday Summary for Intelligent Betting members (free or full) with details of what has been done and what is coming up.

Read More about Morning News – 24/04/2021

April 23, 2021 - Morning News – 23/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

As some of you early birds might have noticed…

There seems to have been a problem with my server overnight.

Initially, it looks like my hosting company had to reboot it after installing a security update.

This means that some of my overnight scripts didn’t run and I now have to sort all that out.

As a result, everything will be coming out later today.

I anticipate that the Focus Ratings ratings will be coming out at about 9am, maybe a little bit later than that.

I don’t have time to do a proper Morning News.

I am very sorry for this blip in the service.

Got a feeling that this morning is going to be a three cup of coffee morning.

Read More about Morning News – 23/04/2021

April 22, 2021 - Morning News – 22/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

I think that…

Finally, I have fixed the problem with Compass Ratings.

Somehow, an important block of code disappeared.

I have copied and pasted it from the Advance Ratings code and it looks like it’s all working now.

I’ll be producing the ratings for Sunday’s Meeting at Sha Tin later on today.

Well, that’s one issue out of the way, at least.

I can get back to doing normal work now…

Whatever normal actually means.

Read More about Morning News – 22/04/2021

April 21, 2021 - Morning News – 21/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

Another day’s work and not much to show for it.

Still, I suppose that I’m one step closer to getting finished.

Although I am quite aware that, as soon as I finished my current projects,

Something new will come along.

I guess that that’s what make my job so interesting.

Read More about Morning News – 21/04/2021

April 20, 2021 - Morning News – 20/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today I shall largely be concentrating on getting Compass Ratings fixed.

I’m not sure what I have inadvertently done to cause the drop in accuracy so…

I am going to compare all the code with the code for Advance Ratings (they should be identical),

Line by line.

I bet that I’ll find a full stop or a comma where there shouldn’t be.

Read More about Morning News – 20/04/2021

April 19, 2021 - Morning News – 19/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

I’d like to say that I got loads of work done over the weekend but…

That would be a total lie.

I got next to nothing done and,

Feel all the better for it.

I’m out for a few hours this morning but when I get back it’ll be nose to the grindstone for the rest of the week.

Read More about Morning News – 19/04/2021

April 16, 2021 - Morning News – 16/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

A pretty good day all round with Focus Ratings managing to get two Trifectas…

Ripon – 14:50 – The Trifecta paid £25.20

Newmarket – 15:35 – The Trifecta paid £185

I really do wish that I could find some way of predicting when the ratings might get the Trifecta but,

I have tried to do so twice before and, on both occasions, totally failed.

Read More about Morning News – 16/04/2021

April 15, 2021 - Morning News – 15/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

An early start for me today as I go all out to close down some of the outstanding tasks.

As a result I shall be only checking email every now and again.

Please be patient with me,

The more I get done today, the less I’ll have to do tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 15/04/2021

April 14, 2021 - Morning News – 14/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday that we had a top rated (on Really Simple Ratings) winner…

Which came in at 150/1.

So, I got sort of side tracked and took a look into top rated horses with high forecast starting prices.

I found that, using RSR, if you blindly back any top rated horse with a forecast starting price of between 6.0 and 12.0 inclusive…

It is blindly profitable to BSP.

If you restrict your selections to those horses which won or were placed last time out,

It becomes more profitable.

I found two more filters which further increase the profitability.

I will be adding a post on Intelligent Betting later on today.

However, I seem to have overslept once again and, as a result,

I am now running hideously behind.

I will, of course, take a look at a similar strategy using, Focus Ratings, Advance Ratings (which is, in some ways, similar to RSR) or the new R8 ratings to see if we have been missing out on some high priced winners.

It should be noted that Early Bird Ratings naturally brings up high priced winners so it is worth taking the time to try and work out why.

Read More about Morning News – 14/04/2021

April 13, 2021 - Morning News – 13/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday…

I got 2 of the systems that will go to make up the new R8 based Portfolio bets uploaded.

These are for races where R8 equals 4.

I have another 4 systems to upload today and then we will start seeing selections.

However, it won’t be until I do the same for those races where R8 equals 3 that we will start getting a decent amount of selections/races.

And, now for something totally different…

Intelligent Betting has its own ratings service.

I give away an eBook so that people can create the ratings themselves but, free members can see the top 4 rated horses in every race online and,

Full members get a PDF emailed to them with the ratings (top four and full.)

Yesterday these ratings got 7 top rated winners from the 30 races.

One of them was at a pretty decent price.

Windsor – 13:40 – Arboy Will won at 150/1 – 334.75 BSP

2021-04-13--1618287594_1021x137_scrot

Click on the image to see it full size.

2021-04-13--1618288008_1092x152_scrot

Click on the image to see it full size.

When I find a minute or two today I will run a test to see what would happen if you blindly backed the top rated RSR (Really Simple Ratings) horse if it has a FC price of, let’s say, 10/1 or more.

That might throw up a few surprises.

Read More about Morning News – 13/04/2021

April 12, 2021 - Morning News – 12/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Today I shall start putting up the R8 based strategies that I shall be using to furnish the daily Portfolio selections.

I shall initially be concentrating on selection the M-2 races to use (where M is the number of meeting.)

Today there are 2 meetings so, in theory, there will be just 2 races to be used.

I have an algorithm which values each R8 rated race and selects those that offer the best opportunities.

There will be a win bet (and possibly a Place bet) on the top two rated horses.

This is a form of Dutching but not classical Dutching.

It is more a way of maximizing the profit opportunity from the race rather than an individual horse.

I wrote an article about this recently (and it is the backbone of my French betting) – you can see that here… Bet The Race, Not The Horse…

The stakes will be based upon a nominal £20 total stake but the individual stakes (for the individual bets) will vary from day to day.

Obviously, you are free to choose which bets to place and what stakes to use.

Additionally, there may be one or more lay bets every day.

For those of you who have Bookmakers accounts, there should be additional multiple bets such as forecasts, trifectas and accumulators. These will not be included in the basic stakes.

Read More about Morning News – 12/04/2021

April 10, 2021 - Morning News – 10/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Once again…

I’m in spreadsheet hell but,

I’m actually quite happy to be there.

There’s lots going on but I thinking that I’m getting close to finishing most of my ongoing projects.

A pretty good day was had all round, yesterday with particularly good news coming from Intelligent Betting.

2021-04-10--1618022460_580x197_scrot

The system that Roy and I use for these selections is a very natural system which means that there will be ups and downs or peaks and troughs.

As long as the peaks are higher than the troughs are low, then…

At the end of the month it all works out in our favour.

Read More about Morning News – 10/04/2021

April 9, 2021 - Morning News – 09/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday I didn’t send out the Compass Ratings for the meeting at Happy Valley.

This is because I was a bit concerned about the Monday’s ratings for the meeting at Sha Tin.

We didn’t get one top rated winner from that morning and we normally get 2 or 3.

I did run yesterday’s rating though and we did get 1 top rated winner but the results did look a bit odd to me.

Today I will re-run the ratings but using the code that was current as of 3 weeks ago before I made the changes to take Stall Bias into effect.

If these give me better results I shall revert to them for Sunday’s Meeting at Sha Tin.

Read More about Morning News – 09/04/2021

April 8, 2021 - Morning News – 08/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

This is primarily for those of you who subscribe to Compass Ratings.

I have been doing some work on Compass Ratings recently.

I don’t think that I have changed anything that should effect the ratings but…

On Monday we had a very bad day with the ratings,

The worst that I have ever seen.

Now, this could just be a coincidence but,

For safety’s sake I would like to withhold the ratings today to see if they return to form or not.

Read More about Morning News – 08/04/2021

April 7, 2021 - Morning News – 07/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

Even though I got a lot of work done yesterday…

I haven’t got much to report on.

I am getting very close to finishing much of what I am working on but,

Not quite there yet.

Those of you who are members of Intelligent Betting should expect an article to be published this morning.

One of the ideas that I suggest in that article may seem a bit wacky but I prefer to think of it as thinking outside of the box.

Read More about Morning News – 07/04/2021

April 6, 2021 - Morning News – 06/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

I had a great Easter weekend and proudly…

And freely,

Admit that I got bugger all work done.

Sometimes it’s good to have a complete break from what is normally a 7 day a week job.

I did check in on the code that is supposed automatically work out distance traveled.

It’s not quite there yet but I expected that.

I’ll be explaining my theories and ideas about distance traveled over at Intelligent Betting tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 06/04/2021

April 3, 2021 - Morning News – 03/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

I uploaded a couple of new eBooks to Intelligent Betting yesterday.

These concern Jockey Strike Rates at different courses.

But…

Whilst doing some researching I came up with an interesting (and I’m sure, little known, fact.)

The great A P McCoy had a great Win Strike Rate over the jumps (about 22%) but…

He actually had an even better strike rate on the AW.

His Win Strike Rate was 33%.

He only ran 6 races on All Weather surfaces and I imagine that they must have been NH races that had been relocated to the AW due to bad weather.

Still, it’s a weird thought, thinking of him racing on the dirt.

Read More about Morning News – 03/04/2021

April 2, 2021 - Morning News – 02/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

I seem to be going through my Jobs to do… list at a pretty fast whack.

I think that I am ready to publish my Compass Rating Plus Plus ratings;

These are the standard horse ratings with the jockey strike rate enhancement and now, at last…

The stall bias for every distance over both race courses.

This Sunday’s meeting at Sha Tin is, for some reason, taking place on Monday.

I shall be reporting back on the results.

In the mean time, today I will be back testing the new ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 02/04/2021

April 1, 2021 - Morning News – 01/04/2021

6620418Good morning…

A pretty good end to the month with…

Focus Ratings achieving a 42% strike rate for the top rated horse and,

Intelligent Betting getting 7 winners from the 9 selections.

One of which was Cinzento in the 16:40 at Kempton.

Cinzento won at 11/1 – 16.0 BSP.

I’ve got a lot of month end work to do today so I’m not sure how much productive work I’ll be able to achieve.

Yesterday I added another 2 eBooks to Top Trainers and there are another two on their way.

Read More about Morning News – 01/04/2021

March 31, 2021 - Morning News – 31/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday I promised you some freebies.

If you head over to Intelligent Betting you can download 2 free eBooks that show Trainer Course statistics.

The link is… Top Trainers

You will need to be logged in to be able to access that page but membership is free.

I have one more eBook (Trainer/Jockey combinations) to finish and publish and then I shall spend the rest of the day trying to work out why I am not getting any R8 Portfolio selections generated.

Read More about Morning News – 31/03/2021

March 30, 2021 - Morning News – 30/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

This will be short and sweet today as…

I am a bit overwhelmed with work and have an immovable deadline for some new content that I can’t avoid.

A good day for Focus Ratings yesterday,

A 35.71% strike rate (for the top rated horse) is not too shabby.

Will have a longer Morning News for you tomorrow and…

Some Freebies to give away.

Read More about Morning News – 30/03/2021

March 29, 2021 - Morning News – 29/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

What should have been a quiet and relaxing weekend…

Was fairly quiet and relaxing but I did get a lot of work done.

Unfortunately, the script that should generate our new R8 based Portfolio selections still refuses to work.

The script runs but just doesn’t give me any output.

With a fresh pair of eyes, I hope to get that sorted today.

It seems to have been an incredibly busy month for me but things seems to be coming together in terms of stuff actually getting finished.

I have been putting a whole load of new content and tools on Intelligent-Betting.com

Roy (a long time Focus Ratings member and my partner on Intelligent Betting) used 2 of these tools (which I believe are unique to Intelligent Betting – and, no, I can’t tell you which two) to the following effect yesterday…

IMG_3820

There will be more tools added this week.

I have, believe or not, now got postcodes for every stable and every race course in the UK.

I have been banging away trying to use the Google Maps API to work out distance traveled to race course for every horse running every day.

Not quite there yet but that might throw up an interesting angle.

Some of you have noticed that the web site was slow to load over the weekend.

This is my fault;

I’ve been running a massive query in order to populate a new database table which (now that it is finished) will allow me to produce a number of eBooks (to be updated and published 4 times a year) to show the following…

Trainer Strike Rate by Course

Trainer Strike Rate by Trainer

Trainer/Jockey combinations

I am quite proud of this, there are some people who sell this sort of information;

For Intelligent Betting members (even the free members) this will be free.

Read More about Morning News – 29/03/2021

March 27, 2021 - Morning News – 27/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Once again…

And this seems to be becoming a weekly thing,

I seem to have overslept.

Thus I am about 4 hours behind schedule.

Normally I would be relishing the extra sleep but…

I really don’t enjoy all the panic of trying to get things done on time when I start work 4 hours later than normal.

Tomorrow, being Sunday, there will be no Morning News.

I’ll catch up with you on Monday with some interesting and important news.

Read More about Morning News – 27/03/2021

March 26, 2021 - Morning News – 26/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

All going well…

From tomorrow (or possibly Saturday),

I shall be publishing daily R8 Portfolio selections, available to all Focus Ratings members, every morning.

There won’t be many selections to start with but, as the portfolio expands, we should end up getting 4 or 5 strategic selections every day.

Now, these will be tuned so as we are able to Bet The Race rather than just betting the horse.

Thus, there may be 2 or 3 different bets on a single race to fully profit from the ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 26/03/2021

March 25, 2021 - Morning News – 25/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

The return to form…

Across the board (all ratings and ancillary services),

Seems to be in full swing.

2 winners from 2 selections for Investment Betting and 1 winner from 2 selections for Intelligent Betting.

Unfortunately (or perhaps, fortunately) I found a bug in one of the overnight scripts,

The one that deals with Horse, Course, Going, Distance wins.

I’d sort of noticed that I wasn’t getting many of these showing up on Focus Ratings and so, finally, I decided to investigate.

It took most of the day to sort out but it seems to work now.

I am hoping that, today, I will be able to do some more constructive work,

Rather than spending my time doing maintenance work.

Read More about Morning News – 25/03/2021

March 24, 2021 - Morning News – 24/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Another decent day’s work for me yesterday and, more importantly…

A return to form for the ratings and all associated services.
p
Yesterday, Focus Ratings had a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 40% and…

Included a forecast at Huntingdon (13:35) which paid £82.81

In a way,

This sort of proves the Cheltenham Effect that Roy and I have been talking about.

Read More about Morning News – 24/03/2021

March 23, 2021 - Morning News – 23/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Once again…

I appear to have overslept.

That makes it twice in the last 5 days.

I did get a fair bit of work done yesterday;

Including getting the System Builder on Intelligent-Betting working.

Speaking of which…

I have also been doing some work on a Cheltenham summary.

Roy (my partner on Intelligent Betting) had this to say about Cheltenham…

Well that was a bad week altogether and the weekend, well I wish I had no internet or that all the bookies had closed or something so I wouldn’t have lost any profit I made with Cheltenham. Lets hope we can back on track today if you excuse the pun…….

What did I learn from the week…..and what I will be doing next year…

The ratings don’t really work in my view because during the festival as you said all the best jocks, the best trainers and the best horses are out and some of these are kept under the radar for these festivals and therefore dont have any decent ratings and all of a sudden BANG they win……

Again as you said the worst ones run at other courses and you cannot really predict what these will do and again the trainers will put their horses into weak races while no one is looking and BANG in they go with no history……

I was also watching the jockeys that were at chelt and this weekend they were tired probably worn out and not really interested in winning, so really all of these should have a few days off after the festival or maybe I should.

For example Rachael Blackmore, champion jockey, was riding one of my local horses Flindt yesterday.

Now Flint has won a good few races but hasn’t done anything for a while but is still a good horse.

In a small enough field Rachel was picked by Ciaran to ride him so I would have thought she wouldn’t be riding losers for a while but lost badly.

What will I be doing next year.

I will withdraw €160 from my account the week before Cheltenham. I will open a new account with someone. I will lodge the money and that will give me 40 a day to enjoy the festival and not do any other normal bets until at least the following Monday. I will then withdraw my winnings from the new account and spend it on a night out (if I’m allowed by then) if I don’t win much it will be a Macdonalds for me and her indoors but If I do win good I might book a nice restaurant…

Hope I haven’t bored you too much. Have a great day.

From my research it seems that every year we (Focus Ratings and Advance Ratings) do OK at Cheltenham.

Advance Ratings does slightly better.

However, during Cheltenham week, both ratings seem to suffer for the non-Cheltenham races.

So that bears out what Ray has to say.

Read More about Morning News – 23/03/2021

March 22, 2021 - Morning News

6620418Good morning…

I did try to take the weekend off but…

Started to do some admin work and that kept me quite busy on Saturday and most of Sunday.

This week it is back to work on R8 and I’ll filter in the strategies as they are defined.

I still need to finish my Cheltenham review but I’m also doing some work on festivals in general as I have seen that, historically (going back over 8 years), the accuracy of the ratings generally takes a dip over festival weeks.

Read More about Morning News

March 20, 2021 - Morning News – 20/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

After oversleeping yesterday…

Which took 4 hours out of my morning and,

Spending more than a few hours watching the Cheltenham racing,

I didn’t get very much work done.

So, today it is going to be flat out if I am to have any hope of having a day off tomorrow.

I’ll be getting the Cheltenham reviews out over the weekend and I’ve also got to get the Intelligent Betting Saturday round up down today.

On top of that, I need to get the Compass Ratings ratings for tomorrow morning out as soon as it is a very early meeting.

In other words, a busy day for me.

Read More about Morning News – 20/03/2021

March 19, 2021 - Morning News – 19/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

This will have top be quite quick as…

I seem to have overslept.

Once again!

I’ll publish the Cheltenham round up later on this morning.

After I’ve done all my BAU (Business as Usual) stuff like checking the backups, checking the server logs as so forth.

But first…

I NEED a coffee.

Read More about Morning News – 19/03/2021

March 18, 2021 - Morning News – 18/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Once again, I’m not going to waffle on about Cheltenham…

As I’ve already done that on a review post which you may read here… http://focusratings.com/articles/cheltenham-2021-day-2/

I will be doing a round up post on Sunday to try to work out what we have learned.

I’ve published a page to handle all things R8 related.

It is visible on the site at… R8

And, in case you didn’t get an email from Intelligent Betting yesterday,

I’ve also published an article about how I bet on horses in France. You can see it at… Bet The Race, Not The Horse

Spotlight Ratings

There are two Listed races at Chantilly today.

One is Flat Turf and the other Flat AW.

The prices look good.

I’ll send out the ratings to the SpotLight Ratings members (free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Ratings and Place Profits members – you just have to ask to be added to the list) as soon as they are finished. The first race starts at 13:05.

I have updated the format of the PDFs and now include the chart to show the shape of the race.

Although they are outside my comfort zone, I will be betting on both races.

spotlight1

In the first race, it is obvious that the top rated horse is very much ahead of the pack and the next four highest rated horses are significantly ahead of the remaining six horses.

As it is an experiment, I shall be betting 1.50 euros on the top rated horse to win and 3.0 euros on the top rated horse to be placed.
I shall also be betting 1.50 euros on a Multi 5; this mean that I need to get the top five in the first 5 places in any order.

Read More about Morning News – 18/03/2021

March 18, 2021 - Cheltenham – 2021 – Day 2

Cheltenham-2021Good morning…

I shall be doing an additional post every day of the Cheltenham Festival.

The object of these posts is to…

1). Determine which of the various ratings work best for festival bets and,

2). How accurate the Ante Post Ratings (created by the same formula that Advance Ratings use but 4 to 6 weeks in advance.)

In a way, they’ll be a sort of post mortum.

I’ll be honest, and I don’t want to put my own ratings down but…

I have some doubts about the value of ratings for festivals as there seem to be plenty of surprises at festivals.

I remember having a series of lengthy email conversations with one of my members 4 or 5 years ago when we both noticed some strange things at Goodwood that year.

If I remember rightly, 2 of the races were won by the bottom (or near bottom) rated horse.

But only in races where the late Khalid bin Abdullah Al Saud had two horses in the race.

One of the horses would be very highly rated but, weirdly enough, the low rated horse would win the race.

I remember us coming up with a number of conspiracy theories and…

Eventually incontrovertibly proving that 2 and 2 did, in fact, equal 5.

Thus, my slight misgiving about ratings for the really big races.

I never got to a full understanding of this phenomenon as, soon afterwards, the emails stopped coming and, then, Clickbank sent me a mail informing me that the credit card that that member used was no longer current; that generally means that the credit card has been cancelled (generally by the account owner or, a close family member.)

So, I’m guessing that my conspiracy theory partner is now at the great race course in the sky.

As I mentioned yesterday morning, in the future the publication date of the ratings will be displayed, as will the (on that date) ante post prices – probably the aggregate odd shown by Oddschecker.

To see any of the images displayed below, just click on them.

Read More about Cheltenham – 2021 – Day 2

March 17, 2021 - Morning News – 17/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

I’m not going to waffle on about Cheltenham…

As I’ve already done that on a review post which you may read here… http://focusratings.com/articles/cheltenham-2021-day-1/

And I’ve not got too much to say about Intelligent Betting apart from to say that we had 6 selections and, from those, we had 3 winners.

We had 11.2023 points returned (after a 2% commission) to the 6 points staked.

We have made back most of the losses from over that last few days.

march

For the month of March…

We are now running at 23 points profits for the first 16 days.

Although I did have a very busy day yesterday (with Cheltenham)…

I did manage to get some more work on R8.

Read More about Morning News – 17/03/2021

March 17, 2021 - Cheltenham – 2021 – Day 1

Cheltenham-2021Good morning…

I shall be doing an additional post every day of the Cheltenham Festival.

The object of these posts is to…

1). Determine which of the various ratings work best for festival bets and,

2). How accurate the Ante Post Ratings (created by the same formula that Advance Ratings use but 4 to 6 weeks in advance.)

In a way, they’ll be a sort of post mortum.

I’ll be honest, and I don’t want to put my own ratings down but…

I have some doubts about the value of ratings for festivals as there seem to be plenty of surprises at festivals.

I remember having a series of lengthy email conversations with one of my members 4 or 5 years ago when we both noticed some strange things at Goodwood that year.

If I remember rightly, 2 of the races were won by the bottom (or near bottom) rated horse.

But only in races where the late Khalid bin Abdullah Al Saud had two horses in the race.

One of the horses would be very highly rated but, weirdly enough, the low rated horse would win the race.

I remember us coming up with a number of conspiracy theories and…

Eventually incontrovertibly proving that 2 and 2 did, in fact, equal 5.

Read More about Cheltenham – 2021 – Day 1

March 16, 2021 - Morning News – 16/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well, it’s here.

My primary focus (excuse the pun) today will to be an analysis of which ratings work best for festivals.

Every year, every festival, I have promised myself to do this but, this week, it’s finally going to happen.

I intend to feed back the information gathered into AntePost ratings.

Now, obviously I only bet on French horse racing and we don’t have the concept of Ante Post racing over here as all racing is done via the French tote.

But, If I didn’t live in France, I rather think that I would be doing half of my betting four weeks prior to the day of the race and only half of my betting on race day.

And, most of my early bets would be each way bets.

As an example, in tomorrow’s Glenfarclas Chase, Tiger Roll was the top rated horse on my Ante Post ratings and, 4 weeks ago, was the bookie’s favourite at 14/1,

Today it is the second favourite at 9/2.

I’d far rather do an each way bet at 14/1 rather than 9/2.

Thus, I have realised that I’ve made a mistake.

From now on, my Ante Post ratings will show the date of publication and, the current bookies prices on that date.

I have also realised that I can actually produce an R8 version of my Ante Post ratings.

This would reduce the field dramatically and would hopefully follow the success of the normal R8 ratings…

Which can be seen even in the hybrid version of R8 that I use for the new Early Bird Platinum selections.

Yesterday there were 2 selection; one was a non runner and the other won at 4.64 BSP.

Read More about Morning News – 16/03/2021

March 15, 2021 - Morning News – 15/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

I’m guessing that, this week…

Everyone’s minds will be focused on Cheltenham.

I will be reporting on the success (or failure) of the various ratings over this period.

I am guessing that Advance Ratings is going to do best.

I will also be getting back down to working on R8;

I really need to get this done and dusted.

Intelligent Betting

Since the 1st of March (two weeks), Intelligent Betting has made 24.43 points profit.

march-chart

I don’t want to jinx things but…

It looks like we are on target of 35 points profit for this month.

Read More about Morning News – 15/03/2021

March 13, 2021 - Morning News – 13/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

A bit of a late start for me today as I had a great night’s sleep,

A rarity for me.

There won’t be a morning news tomorrow as it is my day off.

A reasonable start to the racing at Sha Tin (Hong Kong) today with the first two of the four races (so far) won by our second rated horse.

Another stonking day for Intelligent Betting yesterday with 3 winners from the 7 selections and 12.75 points to ISP (because I overslept, I haven’t got round to doing the BSP stuff yet) to the 7 points staked.

Today I am going to get on with those “Stuff that has to get done” stuff (housework, shopping, laundry and so forth) but will try to clear my desk so that, next week, I can fully concentrate on R8.

Read More about Morning News – 13/03/2021

March 11, 2021 - Morning News – 12/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Members of the congregation,

I would like to start today by recounting a list of all the mistakes that I have made,

Ever!

However, that would probably take about 189 years for you to get through that so I’ll do it in reverse chronological order; starting with yesterday.

There are only two that you need to worry about (although I’ll list the top three.)

1). Yesterday I said that there was a meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday. Now, I knew that the meeting (normally held on a Sunday) was on a Saturday this week. Why I said that there is a meeting on Sunday, God only knows. Thank you to Vikram who (living in Australia and thus 12 hours ahead of us) immediately put me straight.

2). I also promised that the new Compass Ratings Plus Plus ratings (the ones which include stall/draw bias) would be ready. They are not.

I’ve looked at them and they just don’t look right to me. They may be right but I’ll evaluate them tomorrow (although Sha Tin doesn’t have too much stall/draw bias) to see if I want to publish them or, if I have made a mistake in my calculations.

I’m very aware that I’m giving you information that you may be using to risk your hard earned wages on, your children’s inheritance on or your life savings on; I’d sleep better if I knew that the numbers I publish were right.

3). Not a horse ratings problems but…

I ran out of toilet paper on Wednesday; top of the list of things that I absolutely had to do yesterday was to buy some more.

I forgot to do so.

I think that, in the interests of decency I probably shouldn’t say any more.

I will be sending out the Compass Ratings PDFs (for tomorrow’s early morning meeting at Sha Tin) by lunchtime today.

I want one last chance to double check the Ratings Plus Plus numbers.

Read More about Morning News – 12/03/2021

March 11, 2021 - Morning News – 11/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Life tends to get in the way sometimes and, as a result, I didn’t quite get everything that I wanted to finish, actually get finished.

So, it’s a bit more work for me, today…

From Sunday there will be an additional level of Compass Ratings.

These will take stall bias into account.

I just need to check if my numbers match those published by The Hong Kong Jockey Club and The South China Morning Post.

Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting had another great day with its new system (based entirely on R8) giving us 5 winners from the 10 selections and returning 16.125 points (after a 2% Betfair commission) to the 10 points staked.

2021-03-11--1615436942_629x414_scrot

Read More about Morning News – 11/03/2021

March 10, 2021 - Morning News

6620418Good morning…

I sort of got sidetracked yesterday.

I’ve come up with a different angle on All Weather ratings based upon R8.

Whilst I should have put that to one side and got on with my normal work…

I got excited and a little bit carried away and ended up spending far more time than I should have, working on that.

For those of you who have expressed concern…

My knee seems to be getting better.

Weirdly enough, it seems that going for a 4km walk around the lake in the village every day seems to be helping.

It’s strange, the walk is quite painful and, what used to take me about 40 minutes to do, now takes just over an hour.

However, after the walk, my knee seems to work better and, if I sit down in my easy chair, I can actually get up again; that wasn’t so easy this time last week.

It’s weird;

Twenty years ago (which seems like yesterday),

I could fall off my motorbike, get hacked down in a game of footie in the park or trip over my shoelaces and…

Get up and walk away.

Three weeks ago I slipped on the ice, banged my knee on the curbstone and I’ve become an old man overnight.

Read More about Morning News

March 9, 2021 - Morning News – 09/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

After a hard day’s work…

Yesterday I realised that,

If left to my own devices,

It would be Christmas before I complete my analysis of R8 and that wouldn’t help any of us.

So, I’ve decided to start publishing the profitable angles by which we can profit from the new ratings;
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Whether they be win backing, dutching, lay betting or place betting.

However, there may be a slight slant towards my way of betting (on French horse racing) where I put multiple bets on a single race.

Thus, for appropriate race (generally where R8 equals 3 or 4) there might be a win bet on the top rated horse, a place bet on the top rated horse, a place bet on the second rated horse, a dutch bet on the top two rated horses and a lay bet on the third rated horse. And, although you can’t do Betfair multiple bets any more, there might be a bookie’s reverse forecast on the top two rated horses.

However, it will be a pick and mix service where you can just choose those bets that you enjoy.

I will publish the page/post today but you have to understand that it is a work in progress and may take a month (being totally realistic) to complete.

The page/post will show all the angles but also show the strategies by which you can benefit from those angles.

Intelligent Betting

Work has also been going on with Intelligent Betting – Roy (my joint venture partner in this enterprise) and I are hoping to relaunch this service at the end of the month.

Roy has come up with a new strategy which fixes the problems with the original strategy…

Read More about Morning News – 09/03/2021

March 8, 2021 - Morning News – 08/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

I had hoped to get some admin work done over the weekend but…

R8 got in the way.

I have been a bit obsessed with R8 recently and, over the weekend, I came up with a nice AW system that gives about 6 races a week (bearing in mind that we don’t have AW racing every day) and generates a 13% strike rate and a 31% POI to ISP.

This will definitely be going into the portfolio of systems based upon R8 that I am building up.

Compass Ratings

I also got the analysis of Jockey Win Strike Rate finished.

It appears that the Jockey Win Strike Rate has more of an effect on the results than we are currently exploiting in the new Compass Ratings Plus ratings.

From Wednesday I shall be adjusting the ratings to take this into account.

Read More about Morning News – 08/03/2021

March 6, 2021 - Morning News – 06/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

After what has been an incredibly busy (but very productive) week for me…

I am restricting myself to admin work this weekend.

And, three weeks (21 days and 14 hours and 20 minutes – but who’s counting) after I slipped on the ice and banged my knee,

I am going to attempt to see if it is up for the 4km walk around the lake in the village.

If I return successfully…

I’ll probably need a glass (or two) of red wine for purely medical reasons.

Actually, just in case I collapse half way round the lake, I might take a bottle of wine (and a corkscrew; but then, I never go anywhere without a corkscrew – I think that that says a lot about my character) with me, just to keep calm until someone stumbles upon me and arranges a rescue.

Early Bird Ratings

The ratings (and the new Early Bird Plus ratings) went out fine yesterday evening.

Included on the automated email were the Diamonds and Gold (and Platinum – although there were none yesterday) selections.

Please bear in mind;

The Diamonds and Gold selections that I used to manually work out and send out separately are now included (or, at least, the link to them) on the email that shows the links to the ratings. Just scroll down to below the links to the individual meetings ratings and you’ll see the link to them there.

It looks like this…

Early Bird Plus Selections in PDF (normal) format

The link for tomorrow’s EarlyBird Plus Selections (in PDF format) is…. http://FocusRatings.com/data/earlybird-selections-2021-03-05-366634.pdf

Read More about Morning News – 06/03/2021

March 5, 2021 - Morning News – 05/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

I managed to get a lot of work done yesterday but…

Not quite as much as I would have liked.

The main problem is that Thursday is market day in my little village in back of beyond, 1950’s Brittany and,

I live in the market square.

Yesterday there was a drum band wandering around the market.

The music was hypnotic and I found it very hard to concentrate.

Thus, half of my day was sort of wasted.

It was fun, though.

EarlyBird Ratings

The EarlyBird Plus ratings and the new selections (there were none yesterday) were successfully compiled.

Initially the links didn’t work (an underscore rather than a dash) but I quickly fixed that.

There are a few issues to fix today but…

They are largely cosmetic.

Compass Ratings

I have written (and have started to test) the script to generate the data that I need in order to find the exact multiplier that correctly and accurately defines the effect of the jockey on the race.

Just from a quick snapshot, it appears that it is far more than 1, our current multiplier…

Where if a jockey has a strike rate of 15%, we multiply the horse rating (CPR) by 1.15,

What we should be doing is multiplying the horse rating but 1.15 and then by a number greater than 1 but, it would seem, less than 2.

The main issue is that I have to generate/calculate the jockey win strike rate (over the jockey’s last 500 races) for every week for the last 3 years.

I can’t just rely on the jockey’s current win strike rate; that wouldn’t be accurate.

I anticipate that the script may take about 20 hours to run so it is unlikely that I’ll have the results prior to Sunday’s meeting at Sha Tin.

That starts very early on Sunday morning (our time) so it is best to go with the current CPR+ ratings which got 3 top rated winners fromt eh 9 races at Happy Valley on Wednesday whereas the normal ratings only got 2.

General

I have some admin work to do today and over the weekend.

The membership software that manages subscriptions to my sites has had a bit of a hiccup.

Read More about Morning News – 05/03/2021

March 4, 2021 - Morning News – 04/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday was another productive day all round…

I guess that it’s best to start with a success;

Compass Ratings

The new Compass Ratings Plus (CPR+) showed its value by picking up one more top rated winner than the standard ratings (CPR.)

This makes a big difference to the overall profitability.

Now, over the next few days I shall be doing some analysis on the “weighting” factor of the Jockey Win Strike Rate.

So, at the moment, if a jockey has a win strike rate of 15%, that equates to 0.15 in decimal terms.

I add 1 to that to end up with 1.15

I then multiply the horses CPR by that to end up with CPR+.

That is a good start but, after analysis I will be able to come up with the optimum weighting factor.

It could be that, if a jockey has a win strike rate of 15%, I convert that to decimal (0.15) and then multiply that by 2 (or 1.68 or q.54, for example.)

I need to run a query (which is going to take hours and hours) to identify the weighting factor that, historically (over 3 years of data) proves optimal.

Early Bird Ratings

I managed to get the new Early Bird Ratings Plus working yesterday.

The whole process is automated and, from today, the new ratings (as well as the existing ratings will be sent out.)

The EBR+ ratings for today (generated yesterday evening) may be seen here… EarlyBird Plus Ratings – 04/03/2021

I’ve also…

At long last,

Automated the Diamonds and Gold selections process.

Normally I manually compute these selections.

Having it automated is far safer.

I seem to have become my Grandpa.

My Grandpa was a Cornish farmer. After he retired he would, often, after lunch, sit in his favourite easy chair and start to read. After a minute or so he would be snoring.

Granny would comment…

“Grandpa is reading with his eyes closed again.”

I think it took him about 3 years to read Frenchman’s Creek.

He could go a whole week without turning a single page.

Read More about Morning News – 04/03/2021

March 3, 2021 - Morning News – 03/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

Today’s Morning News is going to be a biggie!

Now, if I was Blackadder,

I would say something horrendously politically incorrect such as…

blackadder01“It’s always a biggie, my Queen but,

When your magnificent and, may I say, beautifully lovely, Royal Highness walks into the room,

It gets even bigger.”

Luckily, I’m not Blackadder.

I’d be arrested if I were!

Starting off…

Whilst working on R8 strategies, yesterday,

I came across something that I’ve used before.

Now, I don’t know what this is called.

It must have a name; if anything, I’d call it Reverse Dutching but that’s probably not the right name for it.

The concept,

Which was actually the concept of my first ever solo horse racing service (Investment Betting; launched in May of 2012) which was to back top rated horses (based upon R4 which, 9 months later, became the fundamental, and still used today, basis for Focus Ratings.)

When you were certain that the top rated horse was going to win,

Due to confidence level or market prices,

You would back it and then lay the second rated horse.

Imagine that Kauto Star (or Hurricane Fly) is the odds on top rated horse and Denis the Three Legged Donkey is the second rated horse.

You know that the top rated horse is going to win and so you back it.

You also win (from the lay bet on the second rated horse) when the sad second rated horse doesn’t win.

Two bites at the same cherry.

You would make far more money from the successful lays but, to advised stakes (I used to calculate the advised stake breakdown to a £10 total stake – it might be £8 for the back portion of the bet and £2 for the lay portion of the bet but it would vary according to the probability and risk factor for each bet) it was incredibly profitable.

I’m sure that I’m not the first person to come up with this strategy but, if it has a name, I’d dearly love to know what that name is.

Anyway, I’m pretty sure that this strategy will be part of the Portfolio Bets that Focus Ratings members can get for free; once I switch that service back on.

Moving on….

Read More about Morning News – 03/03/2021

March 2, 2021 - Morning News – 02/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

I actually got quite a bit of work done yesterday.

I managed to get the preview version of Advance Ratings compiles at 4pm and…

Am just waiting to see if it exactly matches those produced at 5am this morning.

They should match (apart from any non-runners) as they are based upon historical form which does not change overnight.

Once I am happy, I will then be able to produce EarlyBird Plus ratings to go alongside the existing EarlyBird ratings and,

Platinum system selections to go alongside (and potentially replacing) our Diamonds and Gold selections.

Once that is done I can get back to ticking off some of the other tasks on my task list.

Read More about Morning News – 02/03/2021

March 1, 2021 - Morning News – 01/03/2021

6620418Good morning…

Following on from what I mentioned last week…

From today I shall be producing Advance Ratings at about 4pm for usage with Early Bird Ratings.

The normal Advance Ratings will continue to be created at about 4am every morning.

Once I have tested them; I shall be creating EarlyBird Plus ratings as well as the normal EarlyBird ratings.

I will also be producing Platinum selections based upon those Plus ratings.

All of this will happen over the next few days.

Read More about Morning News – 01/03/2021

February 27, 2021 - Morning News – 27/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

After an early start and a long day…

I managed to cross off another task on my task list yesterday.

After a lot of analysis, I have found some interesting strategies for when the top rated horse on Early Bird Ratings is also the top rated horse on Advance Ratings.

A sort of R8 but, coming out at 5:30 pm the evening before race day.

Sys1: If you blindly back the top rated horse on Early Bird Ratings when it is also the top rated Advance Ratings horse in certain race types, you get 8 races a week…

One of which will, historically, be a non-runner.

From the remaining 7 races, you get a 40% strike rate and a 20% POI to ISP.

Sys2: If you blindly back the top rated horse on Early Bird Ratings when it is also the top rated Advance Ratings horse and there are 5 runners or less (and the horse is the Fav, 2nd Fav or 3rd Fav) in certain race types, you get 2.66 races a week, a 57.29% strike rate and an 18.21% POI to ISP.

Sys3: If you blindly back the top rated horse on Early Bird Ratings when it is also the top rated Advance Ratings horse and the favourite in certain race types, you get 4.29 races a week, a 46.99% strike rate and an 20.79% POI to ISP.

Now, obviously, sometimes there will be an overlap; where the same horse is chosen by more than one system.

I actually see this as a good thing as it sort of endorses that selection.

Over the weekend I shall be writing the code to…

a). Generate Advance Ratings at about 3pm the day before race day and.

b). Automatically produce the selections. I will call these selections Platinum selections and they will be available for free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Ratings and Place Profits members.

Ultimately, these selections may replace the Diamonds and Gold selections but, initially, they will be proofed alongside the current D&G selections.

Read More about Morning News – 27/02/2021

February 26, 2021 - Morning News – 26/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

An early start for me today as…

I’m trying to catch up on all the work I need to do.

I’m going to pick off the easy jobs first;

Starting with finishing my work on trying to see if it is worth coming up with an Early Bird Ratings version of R8.

So far it is looking good but more analysis is required.

Read More about Morning News – 26/02/2021

February 25, 2021 - Morning News – 25/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday I wrote some code…

That will allow me, today,

To analyse what happens if a horse is top rated on EarlyBird Ratings and also,

On Advance Ratings.

A sort of R8 but for the earlybird preview ratings.

Now, what I am hoping is that will not only give me a sub set of dramatically more accurate ratings but also…

Allow us to identify those horses which go on to win at the high prices that Diamonds and Gold occasionally gets.

Read More about Morning News – 25/02/2021

February 24, 2021 - Morning News – 24/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday was a less good day for the new R8 ratings than I have been seeing.

Of the 8 R8 rated races,

Our top rated horse was a non-runner in one of them.

Of the remaining 7 races only two of them were won by the top rated horse.

That equates to a strike rate of 28.5%

Historically, we have been seeing a strike rate of just over 32%.

Let’s see what today brings us.

On another, slightly related, note…

I realised yesterday that, I can actually compute Advance Ratings the afternoon of the day before the race.

If I were to that, I would get identical numbers and ratings to those produced first thing in the morning of race day.

Thus I could create a sort of R8 for Early Bird Ratings the evening before race day.

I know that I’ve got plenty of other things to get on with but…

This might be of real value both to members of EarlyBird Ratings and also to members of Focus Ratings who get the early preview ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 24/02/2021

February 23, 2021 - Morning News – 23/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

I sort of managed to oversleep this morning which…

Means that I am running behind.

Once I have finished my morning work I’ll get straight onto working on R8 again.

Since Investment Betting has moved from the old system to the new, R8 based system, we have had 5 selections;

Two were non-runners, one came second and the other two won.

I will be sending out the Compass Ratings for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley later on this morning.

Read More about Morning News – 23/02/2021

February 22, 2021 - Morning News – 22/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Oh, the ups and downs of life…

Saturday was one of the worst Saturdays (for all services) that I can remember;

Sunday was pretty great all round.

Focus Ratings had a 43% strike rate (for the top rated horse),

Diamonds and Gold made about 11 points profit in a day,

Place Profits made the best part of a point profit (which is a big result if you are place betting.)

This week I am planning to publish a post (with supporting spreadsheets( to explain how best to benefit from R8.

I’ll also try to finish my guide to Hong Kong racing; it’s taking longer than I thought it would.

Read More about Morning News – 22/02/2021

February 19, 2021 - Morning News – 19/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

As I mentioned yesterday…

I will be spending a large part of the weekend writing down everything I know (which I admit isn’t an awful lot) about Hong Kong horse racing.

As a result, it’s unlikely that there will be a Morning News either tomorrow or Sunday.

I have found 3 races on Saturday that I can rate for Spotlight ratings.

I will be sending out the ratings for those 3 races at Caulfield (AU) later on this morning.

Please bear in mind that Australia is 12 hours ahead of us so you’ll need to get your bets on today.

I don’t want to mention bad knee, so I won’t.

The image below sort of sums it up.

e6a20b2bb07d448169e1d7547329a2fb

Read More about Morning News – 19/02/2021

February 18, 2021 - Morning News – 18/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

I’m not going to mention my painful knee (as a result of slipping on the ice last Friday)…

Apart from mentioning that one unfortunate side affect seems to be,

Instant onset Tourettes Syndrome.

I seem to have become really quite potty mouthed,

Generally every time I get up or sit down,

Or walk, even.

I did get some work done yesterday and hope to be able to publish the first system based upon R8 tomorrow.

This will be a backing system and I will switch the Portfolio bets back on to display it every morning to those who want those selections.

After a period of testing, it may become the basis for the Investment Betting selections as well.

Over the weekend there will be no Morning News emails; I shall be trying to write down everything that I know about Hong Kong horse racing (and how to best profit from Compass Ratings.)

I will publish this as an eBook as I know that many of you are interested.

Read More about Morning News – 18/02/2021

February 17, 2021 - Morning News – 17/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Whilst the bruise below my left knee has now shrunk from the size of Belgium to…

Just a little bump,

The pain hasn’t gone away and, as a result, I didn’t get much work done yesterday.

It’s just really uncomfortable sitting down.

That means that I am slightly behind on replying to emails.

If you are waiting for a reply to an email that you sent to me, I’ll be getting back to you later on this morning, once the ratings and everything else has gone out.

For those of you who have asked to be added to the Investment Betting list, you have been added; I just haven’t got back to you to let you know.

The system that I mentioned yesterday (which will become part of our R8 portfolio and also, potentially, a replacement for the current Investment Betting selections) is going to be re-tested at different confidence levels today.

As it stands, it’s almost too good to be true – it just shows how important R8 is.

The best description that I can come up with, for explaining R8 is this.

Think of that old TV series, Top Gear.

Every week the 3 presenters would have to choose something like…

A convertible with a £2,000 budget.

Now, Jeremy Clarkson would choose a Renault Clio convertible, the little guy would choose a Talbot Horizon convertible and the aging hippie would choose a MG Midget.

The MG Midget would blow up before the challenge had even began,

The Talbot Horizon would break down after about 10 seconds and…

The Clio would win the challenge,

But then, Jeremy Clarkson used to always those challenges, didn’t he.

The only time that I can ever remember them agreeing on the same car was when they talking about practical, affordable slightly sporting hatchbacks and then, they all agreed on the Ford Focus ST2.

Now, in horse racing terms, if two totally different ratings agencies agree on the same top rated horse, that’s a bit like the 3 guys on the old Top Gear agreeing on the same car.

It just works.

Read More about Morning News – 17/02/2021

February 16, 2021 - Morning News – 16/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well, the bruise the size of Belgium…

As a result of slipping on the ice on Friday,

Has shrunk to the size of Basingstoke.

However, it is still very painful and sitting at my desk seems to make it worse.

However, I have come up with a nice win backing system based on R8.

Currently it gives two selections a day, a 46% strike rate and a 15% POI to ISP.

I have a bit more work to do on it but it does look like a keeper.

Today is the last day that I will be sending Investment Betting selections out to all members.

From tomorrow, if you want them, you’ll need to let me know so that I can add you to the list.

I do have to say that the system behind Investment Betting will change in the near future; almost certainly to the one I described above.

Read More about Morning News – 16/02/2021

February 15, 2021 - Morning News – 15/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Not a happy bunny at the moment…

We had a lot of snow last week.

However, Thursday was warm and that snow started to melt.

Thursday night was well be low zero and that melted snow froze.

I woke up on Friday morning to a see of ice in the market square.

I thought to myself…

“No going out for me today; only a complete muppet would risk life or limb out there.”

Just after lunch I became a complete muppet.

I managed the 30 yards to the village shop and, 28 yards of the route back.

Then I hit a patch of ice and went arse over tit.

I now have a bruise the size of Belgium just below my left knee.

As a result, I am living on a diet of Paracetemol and Ibuprophen.

And, no matter, how I sit, my knee starts throbbing and aching.

However, I did manage to get some work done and have come up with a rather nice win bet system based upon R8.

Over the last 5 years of data it shows about 1 bet a day, a 44.74% strike rate and an 18.38% profit on stakes to ISP.

I shall be doing some more work on that today.

Compass Ratings

We had a good day at Sha Tin yesterday.

There were 11 races but, in 3 of them, our top rated horse was a non-runner.

From the remaining 8 races, 2 were won by our top rated horse.

11.60 points were returned to the 8 points staked.

Investment Betting

From Wednesday, I will no longer be sending out the Investment Betting selections to all Focus Ratings members.

If you still wish to receive the Investment Betting selections, just let me know and I’ll put you on the list.

I do have to say that the selection process will be changing from the current R6 Plus based system to the new R8 based system that I mentioned above.

Diamonds and Gold

The Early Bird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections are continuing their incredible good run.

Racing-Index.com shows a 46.0% strike rate and a 126.7% profit on stakes (to BSP, assuming a 2% commission.)

However, there was one day when we had 2 high priced winners and, of course, that was a day when I forgot to proof the selections.

Thus, the real profits on stakes is far higher.

Read More about Morning News – 15/02/2021

February 13, 2021 - Morning News – 13/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

After a couple of false starts…

Yesterday the R8 ratings PDF finally arrive.

I have published four spreadsheets which show the direction that I am going in, in the search for strategies for using R8.

They may be found at…

R8-1.xlsx

R8-2.xlsx

R8-3.xlsx

R8-4.xlsx

Today I shall be working on a new spreadsheet which looks at all races where R8 is greater than zero.

Read More about Morning News – 13/02/2021

February 12, 2021 - Morning News – 12/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

If all goes well today…

The R8 PDF (available on the morning ratings email) will,

Show all races where the top rated horse on R4 is also the top rated horse on ADR (the Advance Ratings ratings.)

These will be the R8=1 races.

Some race may have 2 horses shown;

These will be for races where the top rated horse is top rated on R4 and also on Advance Ratings and, also,

The second rated horse is also second rated by both ratings agencies.

These races will be the R8=2 races.

And, so forth.

This is actually a big thing…

It is the way forward for Focus Ratings;

Using a set of ratings based upon where two totally separate and different ratings agencies agree on the top few rated horses is a major move forward.

Portfolio Selections…

I have switched off the daily Portfolio selections email.

I will switch it back on once I have come up with a new set of selections based upon R8.

The Portfolio selections may be win bets, lay bets, dutching bets and place bets.

You can pick and choose which selections you choose to use.

I will attempt to ask Steve at Racing-Index.com if he will allow me to independently proof these selections to him/his service.

Spotlight Ratings…

There seems to be a paucity of decent International Group, Graded or Listed races at the moment.

However, there seems to be a pretty good race at Flemington (Aus) on Saturday – I will get the ratings for that race compiled and sent out today.

Compass Ratings…

There is an 11 race meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday.

It starts at 4:30 am UK time – I will get the ratings for that race out by lunchtime today.

Read More about Morning News – 12/02/2021

February 11, 2021 - Morning News – 11/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

In the end, yesterday…

I did manage to resist the temptation to take a few hours off work,

And go out and build a snowman.

And, I feel very adult for doing so.

Today, as soon as the ratings have gone out,

I will be implementing some of the changes that are required in order to best utilise R8.

I don’t really want to say too much about those changes as I don’t really want to jinx things.

I hope that I’ll have more to say tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News – 11/02/2021

February 10, 2021 - Morning News – 10/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

After the difficult start to the day, yesterday…

Things didn’t really get any better as the day progressed.

In fact, I made so little progress that, after lunch a just gave up and switched tele on.

Today I hope to achieve far more.

Having said that, it snowed yesterday…

The first real snow we’ve had for about 8 years.

And there’s a little devil sitting on one shoulder,

Whispering into my ear…

“Why don’t you go and build a snowman?”

So, who knows what I’ll get done today.

Read More about Morning News – 10/02/2021

February 9, 2021 - Morning News – 09/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Just to let you know…

The ratings will be coming out a little bit late today.

My hosting company installed some security updates overnight and, as a result,

Some of the overnight scripts didn’t run.

I am manually running them now and with kick off the ratings once those are done.

Read More about Morning News – 09/02/2021

February 8, 2021 - Morning News – 08/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Focus Ratings had a good day yesterday…

With a 47.62% strike rate for the top rated horse.

I did manage to get some work done on R8 over the weekend.

As a result, I will be making some changes to Focus Ratings.

Today, I will switch off the Portfolio selections scripts.

I am pretty sure that no one is still using these selections and it will be better to base them upon R8 rather than R4.

Once I have finished R8 I will switch the portfolio selections back on.

Read More about Morning News – 08/02/2021

February 6, 2021 - Morning News – 06/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Whoops…

I’ve be reminded, thanks VK, that the Sunday meeting at Sha Tin is,

Actually a Saturday meeting.

For any of you early risers…

The ratings are on the website and look good to me.

I am going to produce monthly, quarterly and six monthly statistics for jockey win/place strike rates for both courses.

These will be produced automatically every Monday so, once done, there will be no work for me.

Read More about Morning News – 06/02/2021

February 5, 2021 - Morning News – 05/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Just to let you know…

The AntePost Ratings for the Grand National are now available.

There is one key standout contender…

Tiger Roll gets a rating of 11.65 and, the second rated horse, Santini only has a rating of 6.69

The Racing Post is showing an Ante Post price of 16/1 for Tiger Roll (the lowest price on offer at this point – thus, the favourite.)

Santini and The Conditional (the 3rd rated horse) are both at 25/1

The 4th rated horse has a price of 33/1 and the 5th rated horse (which also has the 5th lowest price according to the Racing Post) is at 20/1

I’m trying to get my head around it but…

It does look like an each way bet on each of the top 5 rated horses might be an interesting thing to do.

If you want free access to AntePostRatings.com, just ask…

It’s free for you.

Read More about Morning News – 05/02/2021

February 4, 2021 - Morning News – 04/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

A good day for Compass Ratings at Happy Valley, yesterday.

From the 9 races, 2 of our top rated horses were non-runners.

From the remaining 7 races, 4 of our top rated horses actually won the race.

Shining On – 5.90
Classic Path – 4.05
Start Superior – NR
Copartner Era – NR
Greatful Heart – 3.35
Capitol Star – 6.95

That means that 20.25 points were returned to the 7 points staked.

Please note, those are Hong Kong Jockey Club prices (the Hong Kong Tote),

At the bookmakers you get slightly lower prices.

Read More about Morning News – 04/02/2021

February 3, 2021 - Morning News – 03/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday was a day when…

Pretty much everything that I attempted to do, went horribly wrong.

I get days like that sometimes.

Thus, I’m a bit behind on my schedule;

Thus, my early start today.

Let’s hope that today runs more efficiently.

Read More about Morning News – 03/02/2021

February 2, 2021 - Morning News – 02/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

Well…

The Cheltenham Ante Post ratings have been compiled and are now available on AntePostRatings.com

So, it’s back to work on R8 for me.

This, in the long term,

Will be far more important to us.

Read More about Morning News – 02/02/2021

February 1, 2021 - Morning News – 01/02/2021

6620418Good morning…

I should be able to finish the Cheltenham AntePost ratings today and have it ready to publish tomorrow morning.

Then it’ll be back to work on R8 which is going to be far more important to us in the long run.

I was slightly distracted yesterday morning…

Whilst the Hong Kong results were coming in.

From the 10 races at Sha Tin, 3 were won by our top rated horse (it’s almost always like that.)

The prices were pretty good, though.

2nd race of the day – top rated horse won at 11.35

9th race of the day – top rated horse won at 33.30

10th race of the day – top rated horse won at 9.45

So, 54.10 points returned to the 10 points staked.

We always seem to get a 30% strike rate at Sha Tin – the Wednesday meeting at Happy Valley seems to be more up and down but, there is more stall bias at Happy Valley.

Read More about Morning News – 01/02/2021

January 31, 2021 - Morning News – 31/01/2021

6620418Good morning…

I know that I said, yesterday…

That there wouldn’t be a Morning News today (as it is my day off) but,

I just couldn’t resist doing one.

On Friday we had a fantastic day for the Diamonds and Gold selections…

There were 3 selections;

The first came 6th and the second and third both won at 7.22 BSP and 17.50 BSP.

Yesterday we also had 3 selections.

The first was at Fairyhouse and that meeting was abandoned.

The second selection won at 3/1 ISP (4.40 BSP)

“Nice”, I thought to myself, “at least we’re going to make a profit on the day; it doesn’t really matter what the last selection does.”

But, the last selection did what was expected and also won.

It didn’t just win; it won at 25/1 ISP( 34.51 BSP!)

I have a horrible feeling that EarlyBird Ratings has either started taking drugs or…

Perhaps has changed its brand of coffee to a stronger one.

I am taking a break from R8 today as, technically it is my day off.

However, I shall be doing some work on AntePost Ratings.

Yesterday I managed to get day 1 of Cheltenham rated and the PDF is available on AntePostRatings.com

Today I hope to get the rest of the festival (or, at least a large chunk of it) rated and, the aim is to produce a Cheltenham Handbook produced by Tuesday.

If you want to take a look at Day 1 of Cheltenham, click on this link… Cheltenham – Day 1

Now, this link will expire/change sometime tomorrow (otherwise anyone could download the ratings for free) but, if you a member of AntePost ratings, there will be a working link on the site.

If you’ve asked to become a member and I haven’t replied, please send me a nag email as I am a bit overwhelmed at the moment.

Read More about Morning News – 31/01/2021

January 30, 2021 - Morning News – 30/01/2021

6620418Good morning…

I spent a lot of yesterday fixing little behind the scenes issue and thus, didn’t get much work done on R8.

Today’s number one priority is to get the R8 PDF sorted out so that it shows all relevant horses for all races where R8 is greater than zero.

Yesterday was a fantastic day for the Diamonds and Gold selections…

There were 3 selections;

The first came 6th and the second and third both won at 7.22 BSP and 17.50 BSP.

I have added three more races to AntePostRatings.com – over the next week I shall be adding all of the Cheltenham races that I can rate in advance.

For those of you who have requested access to Compass Ratings, AntePost Ratings and Spotlight Ratings, I wil set your accounts up this morning (I am running a little behind today.)

There are no Spotlight Ratings races worth rating today but there is a nice race at Chukyo (JP) tomorrow – we have always done well in Japan, our top rated horse won the Tokyo Derby last year.

Once again, there is a slight email backlog but I am plowing through them.

There will be no Morning News tomorrow as it is, in theory, my day off.

Read More about Morning News – 30/01/2021

January 29, 2021 - Morning News – 29/01/2021

6620418Good morning…

An early start for me today as…

I have discovered a problem with a very small part of the background code that does overnight updates for Focus Ratings.

This doesn’t affect the ratings in any way, it just isn’t doing an admin job that it should be doing.

I have fixed the problem but I now have to go through 6 month’s of data to update that data.

On another point…

I got a lot of work done on R8 yesterday.

I have cut a spreadsheet that just show R8=4 races.

These are races where the top rated horse on Focus Ratings is also the top rated horse on Advance Ratings (two ratings services that compute the ratings in mathematically totally different ways.)

But, also, the second rated horse is also second rated by both ratings and the third rated horse is third rated on both ratings and the fourth rated horse is fourth rated by by ratings.

These should be incredibly accurate ratings.

In fact, if you were to blindly back the top rated horse in every R8=4 race, you would make a profit to ISP; not much of one but, a profit none the less.

If you take out the unprofitable race types, you end up with 6 or 7 races a month with a 49% strike rate and a profit on stakes of 24% to ISP.

I have also looked at dutching the R8=4 races.

By filtering out the unprofitable race types, it is very easy to get 2 races a week with a 90% strike rate if you dutch the top four rated horses.

Now, I still need to test what happens if you dutch the top three rated horses (or the top two rated horses) and work out the profits to BSP.

Then I need to look at Place Betting the top rated horse and, also, the possibility of laying the second or third rated horse should the price be low enough to be attractive.

Then I need to “rinse and repeat” and do exactly the same for R8=3 races (and then R8=2 and R8=1 races.)

Can you see what I’m aiming for?

I want to create a portfolio of micro systems that, combined, will give perhaps 4 or 5 selections a day; some of them win bets, some of them place bets, some of them dutching bets and some of them lay bets.

Then, on a daily basis, I will publish a PDF that shows all the races where R8 is not zero.

You’ll be able to see if the race is an R8=1 or R8=2 (and so forth) by seeing how many rated horses are displayed for that race.

Then, on the next page, I will show any system selections that come from those races.

Finally, there will be a page (or two) which explains those systems.

I intend to use these selections to replace the current Portfolio selections; I wrote those back in 2015/2015 and I’m pretty sure that no-one is using them any more.

Now, the spreadsheet is a bit messy at the moment (my spreadsheets tend to be messy before I tidy them up into a publishable format) but, if you want to take a look, email me and I’ll send you a copy. You just have to remember that it is a work in progress.

Below is a screenshot from the primary data tab.

R8

This shows the top four rated horses for every race (from the start of January 2016) which is R8=4 rated.

The columns you need to look at are…

R4s – this show the ratings status; if R4s is 1 (and in green) that means that it is the top rated horse in that race.

Result show the position of that horse (green if a winner) – just take a peek at how many times the top rated horse wins.

D2W shows the result from dutching the top two rated horses.

D3W shows the result from dutching the top three rated horses.

D4W shows the result from dutching the top four rated horses.

They will say Yes (and have a green background) if successful.

As you can see, every R8=4 race for the first 7 weeks of 2016 could have been successfully dutched had you dutched the top four rated horses.

It might have been cheaper to have dutch just the top three rated horses in the same races as you would have been able to do so successfully in 10 out of the 11 races.

Now, obviously it would be worth looking at some filters (such as number of runners or specific race types) even if that means less selections.

That won’t matter as we’ll end up with a number of strategies for R8=4 raves but also another set of strategies for R8=3 races and so forth.

That will mean that we may end up with multiple bets on the same race. That’s how I do my betting in France; I place up to 14 bets on a single race – but, a very carefully selected race. Last year was a very weird year for betting and I only ended up betting on about 50 races (normally it would be about 180 races – to be honest, I was busy doing other things and with the bar/PMU/bookies being under restrictions, it just wasn’t as much fun as it used to be.)

From those 50 or so races, I lost money (only a few euros) on three of those races.

Can you see why I’m so excited about R8?

Read More about Morning News – 29/01/2021

January 28, 2021 - Morning News – 28/01/2021

6620418Good morning…

I’ve committed the next four days to…

Finishing the R8 strategy.

I think that it’s more important to get all the possibilities identified and, then, go on to seeing how I can deploy them.

There’s definitely value in R8 – I just have to work out how to use it to get the very best out of it rather than just coming up with a collection of profitable strategies.

Read More about Morning News – 28/01/2021

January 27, 2021 - Morning News – 27/01/2021

6620418Good morning…

Although some work got done on my new series of R8 related strategies…

There is still quite a bit more to do.

One of the things that is going to be worth investigating is the possibility of using R8 races to help lay horses.

The logic is…

If R8 helps us predicts winners,

Any other horse in the race ought to be a loser.

Thus, if they are cheap enough, candidates for laying.

For new and existing Place Profits members,

I have come up with a potential staking plan for Place Profits.

I am a firm believer that every strategy to system need to have an individual staking plan tailored to the results profile for that strategy.

I will be sending out a rather sexy spreadsheet and an explanation later on today.

Read More about Morning News – 27/01/2021

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