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Well, for the third day in a row…
We’ve had a better than 30% strike rate for the top rated horse.
Which makes me happy.
I have to admit that I’m struggling, a bit, to get historical weather data matched up with our results but I’ll get there;
After all, a problem is just a solution waiting to be found.
At the same time, I shall also be trying analyse whether we do better on some days of the week than other days.
More than a few of you have mentioned that you don’t bet on Saturdays.
Anyway, that’s for next week, firstly let’s get on and take a quick look at yesterday’s results in more detail….
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● For our recent winners from the morning ratings, click on Recent Winners…
● For our latest posts, click on Latest Posts…
● In addition to the normal morning ratings, we also automatically supply a preview of the ratings at 5pm the day before the race.
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|2015-08-28||Hamilton||20:05||Ya Boy Sir||1||7.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Down Royal||18:30||Little Mitch||1||2.62||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Down Royal||18:00||Rock On Rosie||1||6.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Hamilton||17:55||New Lease Of Life||1||9.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Ffos Las||17:30||Bleu Astral||1||2.50||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Newmarket – July||17:15||Mister Brightside||1||3.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Newcastle||17:10||Strands Of Silk||1||4.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Ffos Las||16:55||Sword Of The Lord||1||0.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Newmarket – July||16:45||Persun||1||11.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Thirsk||16:35||One More Go||1||5.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Ffos Las||16:25||Bapak Bangsawan||1||9.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Down Royal||16:20||Lake Champlain||1||4.50||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Newmarket – July||15:40||Tashweeq||1||1.91||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Newmarket – July||15:05||Bathos||1||5.00||0.00|
|2015-08-28||Ffos Las||14:40||Sheer Honesty||1||1.10||0.00|
|2015-08-27||Wolverhampton (AW)||21:15||Oasis Spear||1||2.25||2.44|
|2015-08-27||Wolverhampton (AW)||20:15||Aqua Libre||1||3.25||3.90|
|2015-08-27||Wolverhampton (AW)||19:45||Rouge Nuage||1||13.00||14.86|
|2015-08-27||Sedgefield||19:00||Grams And Ounces||1||2.62||2.86|
I mentioned recently that we seem to do better in the earlier races every day.
I thought that it would be a nightmare to do the analysis but,
Actually, it was easier than I thought.
I wrote a program to add an extra couple of columns to the results table and then ran a query on it.
However, when it came to doing the graphs…
That’s another matter!
Sometimes it’s good to have a contrary attitude.
Sometimes it’s nice to go looking for one thing and, almost by chance, find something completely different.
For example, I like mushrooming.
I may go into the forest expecting to find some Ceps and, instead, come across a patch of Trompettes de la mort (Horn of Plenty) just by chance.
And that’s a nice surprise; Fresh Ceps are worth about €25 a kilo but dried Trompettes de la mort are worth €400 a kilo.
And, by all things good and great, they taste wonderful! A bit like truffles.
So, when I got an email from John, I had this feeling that he’d found a patch of Trompettes de la mort where I’d been looking for Ceps.
But, before I go on and explain what John had come up with…
I thought that it might be an idea to quickly explain my personal philosophy.
I’ve been up since the early hours so that I can get the BAU (Business as Usual) out of the way before Goodwood starts.
And, to make things easier for me I thought that I’d get the End of Month Place Betting Strategy post started.
I added a new tab to the Place Betting Results Spreadsheet (which is available at… PBSJuly.xls) and started showing the results for the standard strategy compared to the results by using the new strategy.
And I was so excited that I couldn’t wait until the end of the month…
I had to tell you straight away!
I’ve had plenty of feedback about the Place Betting System.
And I love feedback; especially when I can pass it on to you.
Yesterday, one member sent me an email and asked…
“If the 3rd rated only wins 33% of the time, what happens to profits if we just don’t bet it?”
So, I immediately dived into the Spreadsheet (which is available at… PBSJuly-staking.xls) and started crunching some numbers.
The results are on the Analysis tab.
By taking out the 3rd rated horses we improve the strike rate and get 14.70695 profit returned to 42 units staked (to level stakes.)
That’s better than the 11.24695 profit that we got from the level stake betting the top three rated (for 97 units staked) for the same period (up to Thursday.)
By ignoring the 3rd rated selections we get 43 selection from the 23 days the spreadsheet covers and we get bets 9 days out of 10.
Following on from yesterday’s post about Staking for our new Place Betting Strategy…
Which can be found… Here.
There’s been quite a lot of feedback (all favourable) and so…
I had no choice but to dive in and juggle some numbers.
I have done some more analysis on the last 23 days’ data.
The spreadsheet that shows this work is available at… PBSJuly-staking.xls
They say that every mad scientist needs a muse…
Someone to inspire them to continually come up with new ideas and try new things.
However, most people who know me say that every mad scientist (or computer programmer who likes maths, for that matter) needs a straightjacket…
And a nice, comfortable, padded cell.
I don’t know who is right but I do know that there’s a guy in Wales who occasionally sends me the odd email (and some of them are rather odd) and…
They always start me thinking.