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Cheltenham – 2021 – Day 1

Cheltenham-2021Good morning...

I shall be doing an additional post every day of the Cheltenham Festival.

The object of these posts is to...

1). Determine which of the various ratings work best for festival bets and,

2). How accurate the Ante Post Ratings (created by the same formula that Advance Ratings use but 4 to 6 weeks in advance.)

In a way, they'll be a sort of post mortum.

I'll be honest, and I don't want to put my own ratings down but...

I have some doubts about the value of ratings for festivals as there seem to be plenty of surprises at festivals.

I remember having a series of lengthy email conversations with one of my members 4 or 5 years ago when we both noticed some strange things at Goodwood that year.

If I remember rightly, 2 of the races were won by the bottom (or near bottom) rated horse.

But only in races where the late Khalid bin Abdullah Al Saud had two horses in the race.

One of the horses would be very highly rated but, weirdly enough, the low rated horse would win the race.

I remember us coming up with a number of conspiracy theories and...

Eventually incontrovertibly proving that 2 and 2 did, in fact, equal 5.

Thus, my slight misgiving about ratings for the really big races.

I never got to a full understanding of this phenomenon as, soon afterwards, the emails stopped coming and, then, Clickbank sent me a mail informing me that the credit card that that member used was no longer current; that generally means that the credit card has been cancelled (generally by the account owner or, a close family member.)

So, I'm guessing that my conspiracy theory partner is now at the great race course in the sky.

As I mentioned yesterday morning, in the future the publication date of the ratings will be displayed, as will the (on that date) ante post prices - probably the aggregate odd shown by Oddschecker.

To see any of the images displayed below, just click on them.


13:30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

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Advance Ratings

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Focus Ratings - R4

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Focus Ratings - R8

2021-03-16--1615882825_1104x75_scrot

All four of the ratings agencies agreed that Appreciate It was going to win the race and...

Appreciate It did the decent thing and won the race.

It was a very low price (only 8/11) but I bet that if you had done an each way bet on the AntePost ratings back, when they were published on the 1st of February, you would have made a decent profit on that bet.

Advance Ratings got it right where they, at 5am yesterday morning, managed to predict the forecast.

At the moment (bearing in mind that I am updating this post as the results are coming in), both Advance Ratings and Ante Post Ratings are leading the field.


13:55 - Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

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Advance Ratings

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Focus Ratings - R4

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Focus Ratings - R8

2021-03-16--1615887548_1113x111_scrot

Advance Ratings, Focus Ratings - R4 and Focus Ratings - R8 all got it right.

They all predicted that Shiskin would win the race which, he quite decently did.

Once again, quite a small price (only 4/9) but...

A profit is a profit and every little helps.

It seems, so far, that for festivals, Advance Ratings (free to Focus Ratings members) is the way to go (2 two top rated winners out of the first 2 races at Cheltenham 2021.)


14:30 - Ultima Handicap Chase

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

The race was not rated.

Advance Ratings

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Focus Ratings - R4 height="229"

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Focus Ratings - R8

This was not an R8 race.

No real joy here.

The race wasn't rated by AntePost Ratings.

For Advance Ratings, our top rated horse came third @ 11/2 so perhaps an each way bet there would have made sense.

For Focus Ratings - R4, Our top rated horse came second and our second rated horse came second.

There wasn't an R8 rated horse in this race.

Overall, I still think that Advance Ratings is in the lead.


15:05 - Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

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Advance Ratings

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Focus Ratings - R4

2021-03-16--1615888281_1115x97_scrot

Focus Ratings - R8

This was not an R8 race.

Advance Ratings got the winner (only at 2.10) but...

For Advance Ratings I think that it has had, so far, 3 top rated winners out of 4.

In the last race Advance Ratings predicted the top three - the top rated won, the other two came second and third - unfortunately, not in the right order.

However, there might have been a decent series of each way bets there?

Focus Ratings also got the first three but, unfortunately, once again, in the wrong order.


15:40 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

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Advance Ratings

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Focus Ratings - R4

2021-03-16--1615888635_1113x102_scrot

Focus Ratings - R8

This was not an R8 race.

For some reason, Black Tears (the winning horse) was a bit under the radar as far as the ratings were concerned (although it was 5th rated on the Ante Post ratings.)


16:15 - Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

This race was not rated.

Advance Ratings

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Focus Ratings - R4

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Focus Ratings - R8

2021-03-16--1615888970_1102x103_scrot

Do you see what I mean about surprising results?

An 80/1 winner?

I don't think that the ratings were too bad for this race but,

Somehow, they failed to take into acount the outsider.

Our top rated horse came second.


16:50 - Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

2021-03-16--1615889113_639x251_scrot

Advance Ratings

2021-03-16--1615889236_751x105_scrot

Focus Ratings - R4

2021-03-16--1615889280_1116x98_scrot

Focus Ratings - R8

This was not an R8 race.

Focus Ratings - R4 got the first two in the right order.

Advance Ratings got the first two but, in the wrong order.

The Ante Post ratings were less accurate.


Conclusion...

To be honest...

I'm not too unhappy with the performance of the ratings for the first day of Cheltenham 2021.

I think that the right combination of each way ante post bets and each way race day bets,

Based upon the ratings,

Would have made some sort of profit.

Let's see what today brings.

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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