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Cheltenham – 2021 – Day 2

Cheltenham-2021Good morning...

I shall be doing an additional post every day of the Cheltenham Festival.

The object of these posts is to...

1). Determine which of the various ratings work best for festival bets and,

2). How accurate the Ante Post Ratings (created by the same formula that Advance Ratings use but 4 to 6 weeks in advance.)

In a way, they'll be a sort of post mortum.

I'll be honest, and I don't want to put my own ratings down but...

I have some doubts about the value of ratings for festivals as there seem to be plenty of surprises at festivals.

I remember having a series of lengthy email conversations with one of my members 4 or 5 years ago when we both noticed some strange things at Goodwood that year.

If I remember rightly, 2 of the races were won by the bottom (or near bottom) rated horse.

But only in races where the late Khalid bin Abdullah Al Saud had two horses in the race.

One of the horses would be very highly rated but, weirdly enough, the low rated horse would win the race.

I remember us coming up with a number of conspiracy theories and...

Eventually incontrovertibly proving that 2 and 2 did, in fact, equal 5.

Thus, my slight misgiving about ratings for the really big races.

I never got to a full understanding of this phenomenon as, soon afterwards, the emails stopped coming and, then, Clickbank sent me a mail informing me that the credit card that that member used was no longer current; that generally means that the credit card has been cancelled (generally by the account owner or, a close family member.)

So, I'm guessing that my conspiracy theory partner is now at the great race course in the sky.

As I mentioned yesterday morning, in the future the publication date of the ratings will be displayed, as will the (on that date) ante post prices - probably the aggregate odd shown by Oddschecker.

To see any of the images displayed below, just click on them.

13:20 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021


Advance Ratings


Focus Ratings - R4


Focus Ratings - R8

This was not an R8 race.


Focus Ratings R4 got the first three in the right order!

Advance Ratings got the first three but, in the wrong order.

Ante Post Ratings didn't even come close.

In fact, Focus Ratings got the 7 horses in the right order apart from getting Does he Know and Bear Ghylls (the 4th and 5th rated horses) the wrong way round.

A bit of a result there for Focus Ratings R4.

13:55 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021


Advance Ratings


Focus Ratings - R4


Focus Ratings - R8


Ante Post Ratings didn't do much good for us here but...

Advance Ratings, Focus Ratings R4 and Focus Ratings R8 all had the winner as their top rated horse.

That makes it two out of two top rated winners for Focus Ratings.

14:30 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

This race was not rated.

Advance Ratings


Focus Ratings - R4


Focus Ratings - R8


Not too much to say about this race.

The Advance Ratings second rated horse did win the race at 33/1.

But, all the ratings agencies missed out on this race.

15:05 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021


Advance Ratings


Focus Ratings - R4


Focus Ratings - R8

This was not an R8 race.

In this race, none of the ratings agencies did themselves any favours.

For Advance Ratings our second rated horse did come second but the price was so low it doesn't really matter.

For Focus Ratings R4, our 3rd rated horse did come second and there may have been an each way profit there.

15:40 - Glenfarclas Chase

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021


Advance Ratings


Focus Ratings - R4


Focus Ratings - R8

This was not an R8 rated race.


This sort of adds things up for me!

Ante Post Ratings and Advance Ratings (they both use the same formula except I created the Ante Post Ratings just over six weeks ago) both got the top two in the right order.

When I did the Ante Post Ratings for this race (on the 1st of February 2021) Tiger Roll was the top rated and also the favourite at an ante post price of 14/1.

He won today at 9/2.

16:15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021

This race was not rated.

Advance Ratings


Focus Ratings - R4


Focus Ratings - R8

This was not an R8 race.

Advance Ratings' top rated horse came second and Focus Ratings R4's second rated horse won the race at 14/1.

I can't say too much more than that about this race.

16:50 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper

AntePost Ratings - complied and published on the 1st of February 2021


Advance Ratings


Focus Ratings - R4


Focus Ratings - R8


Focus Ratings R4 got the top two but in the wrong order.

I'm not sure that I was hoping for more than that;

A big field bumper is never going to be easy to rate.


One of the things that I have learned from today is that, perhaps, I am producing my Ante Post Ratings a little bit too early.

It might be better if I produce them exactly 4 weeks prior to race day.

They'll be more accurate that way and the ante post prices will still be good.

Focus Ratings R4 did the best here, with 2 top rated winners from the seven races.

My kindest regards


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