Dutching – A Strategy – Stage 3

I have completed stage 3 of my analysis on how to dutch the top three rated horses.

Once again, thank you all for your suggestions and advice.

I have created a new spreadsheet; this may be found at http://focusratings.com/data/tbl_dutching.ods

I'm sorry that this is in OpenOffice/LibreOffice format - it's too big to save in Excel format (although you may be able to open it with Excel.)

To recap...

Although the new spreadsheet contains handicap and non-handicap races, I shall only be looking at the non-handicap races for the moment.

I am only using data from the 19th of November 2013 to the 18th of November 2014 (inclusive.)

I have stripped out a few races where there are silly errors (races called NH Hurdles but run over the AW course at Southwell - due to bad weather - and so forth.)

My original post may be found at Dutching - A Strategy - Stage 1

I then following this up with Dutching - A Strategy - Stage 2

Confidence Level of the 4th rated horse..

As I mentioned before, I have a feeling that the accuracy of the ratings (with regards to Dutching the top three rated horses) may vary according to the confidence level of the 4th rated horse.

So, I decided to take a look at how the results varied according to this.

On my spreadsheet the first tab (named Data) shows the raw data.

The second tab (named Analysis 1) shows the basic analysis and the third tab (named Charts 1) shows the charts.

On the basic data I have a figure that is shown as 4th_conf; this is the confidence level of the 4th rated horse in each race.

I have rounded this down to the nearest 10% and is shown as 4CR.

The results are as follows...

4CR	Strike Rate
0%	26.35%
10%	26.53%
20%	26.27%
30%	25.97%
40%	24.16%
50%	22.18%
60%	22.84%
70%	21.26%
80%	19.04%
90%	17.48%
100%	15.25%

The chart below shows the Strike Rate of the top three rated horses in non-handicap races (on the Y axis) against the confidence level of the third rated horse (on the X axis.)

More Analysis Required...

So, it's obvious that I need to do some more analysis.

So, I have run another Pivot Table and now show the results on the Analysis 2 tab.

All Weather

On the All Weather tracks get pretty much what we would expect; as the confidence level of the 4th rated horse increases, the strike rate decreases.

The results are as follows...

4CR	Strike Rate
0%	26.35%
10%	26.53%
20%	26.27%
30%	25.97%
40%	24.16%
50%	22.18%
60%	22.84%
70%	21.26%
80%	19.04%
90%	17.48%
100%	15.25%

The chart below shows the Strike Rate of the top three rated horses in non-handicap races (on the Y axis) against the confidence level of the third rated horse (on the X axis.)

As you can clearly see, there is a direct relationship between the confidence level of the fourth rated horse and the Strike Rate in All Weather races.

Flat

With the Flat we get a bit of a surprise - there's no real variance between the confidence level of the 4th rated horse and the Strike Rate.

The results are as follows...

4CR	Strike Rate
0%	26.47%
10%	25.86%
20%	28.16%
30%	25.91%
40%	24.07%
50%	23.54%
60%	22.66%
70%	21.01%
80%	19.49%
90%	18.91%
100%	13.33%

The chart below shows the Strike Rate of the top three rated horses in non-handicap races (on the Y axis) against the confidence level of the third rated horse (on the X axis.)

NH Chase

With the NH Chase races it's back to normal - there's a variance between the confidence level of the 4th rated horse and the Strike Rate.

The results are as follows...

4CR	Strike Rate
0%	26.54%
10%	17.65%
20%	33.3%
30%	25.58%
40%	32.86%
50%	22.86%
60%	20.47%
70%	21.62%
80%	18.09%
90%	16.67%
100%	0.00%

The chart below shows the Strike Rate of the top three rated horses in non-handicap races (on the Y axis) against the confidence level of the third rated horse (on the X axis.)

NH Flat

With the NH Flat races it's upside down- there's a variance between the confidence level of the 4th rated horse and the Strike Rate, but the Wrong way round.

The results are as follows...

4CR	Strike Rate
0%	20.62%
10%	8.33%
20%	19.23%
30%	22.41%
40%	15.79%
50%	8.33%
60%	23.03%
70%	15.38%
80%	19.05%
90%	20.29%
100%	16.67%

The chart below shows the Strike Rate of the top three rated horses in non-handicap races (on the Y axis) against the confidence level of the third rated horse (on the X axis.)

NH Hurdles

With the NH Hurdles races it's what we would expect - there's a variance between the confidence level of the 4th rated horse and the Strike Rate.

The results are as follows...

4CR	Strike Rate
0%	29.93%
10%	29.90%
20%	22.40%
30%	27.53%
40%	24.45%
50%	23.91%
60%	20.57%
70%	20.88%
80%	17.55%
90%	14.20%
100%	1.11%

Conclusion

So, do I know what these numbers mean?

To be honest, the answer has to be no.

But I do feel that I'm getting closer to an answer.

And I also know that you guys are going to ask...

What happens when you look at the difference between the confidence level of the third rated horse and the fourth rated horse?

And you'd be right to ask that!

So, more work required here, I think!

I feel that, once I have analysed that factor we should have enough data to start putting together a strategy.

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

One Response to “Dutching – A Strategy – Stage 3”

1. Ron Payne says:

   December 12, 2014 at 11:13 am

   Dutching has always seemed to me to be the best way of making a profit from racing and, in my own very amateur way, looked at how I could achieve a profit.
   I have come up with several problems:
   1. If top three rated are clear of fourth rated the SP is usually low;
   2. Strike rate is better with smaller fields again producing low SPs; and,
   3. If the favourite is below 15/8 and wins then a loss would be made unless the second and third rated were priced at more than 4s. This means the favourite is very well fancied and could be better as a single win bet.

   Regards
   Ron

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