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Forecasts – Stage 3

focus-ratings-tricast04Forecasts!

So, I think that I've pretty much come to the end of my analysis.

It's not that there aren't more avenues to explore but...

It's just that I'm not sure that I have the knowledge and skills to explore them?

I do anticipate publishing another post to show how my research might be applied to Tricasts.

Now, I do have to admit that I have tailored my research according to my personal preferences but...

You are free to use the core data so that it suits your requirements.

And I do apologise for some terrible maths (more of which later)...

But I really had no choice?

A new spreadsheet

Now, at this stage I had to make some decisions.

john-cleese-noOtherwise I'd be at this for the rest of my life!

And I didn't want that, did I?

No, no, no and no!

So I made a decision to just concentrate on races with 12 runners (or less) and where the 3rd rated horse has a confidence level of 80% or below.

I wrote some new code and created a new spreadsheet which would help me finish the analysis.

The file may be found here...

Forecast analysis file - version 3

This is a far smaller file than the previous ones.

A walk through the file...

So, the file has 6 tabs at the bottom.

1). The first tab (called Complete) contains all the data that you'd normally expect to find on a Results spreadsheet but...

With an additional 2 columns on the right hand side of the spreadsheet.

The first additional column now shows the price of the Top Rated horse TR_rice.)

The second additional column now shows the price of the 2nd Rated horse SR_rice.)

2). The second tab (called Races) contains all the data in Complete but, only for the top rated horse.

Thus, it lists just one line per race rather than the 3 lines for the Complete sheet.

3). The Third tab (called Race Analysis) shows the results based upon the Race Type.

4). The Fourth tab details the The Detailed Analysis in ROI order - this is a prettier version of Tab 3 and shows which race types you could blindly back (bearing in mind the stipulations of runners=12 or less and 3rd rated horse's confidence level is 80% or less.)

5). The Fifth tab details the The Detailed Analysis in Strike Rate order - this is a prettier version of Tab 3 and is there for a cunning little plan that I have (more of which later!)

6). The Sixth tab shows how I used some rather dodgy maths to work out the CSF payout...

A Confession!

Now, I had to try to work out how CDF payouts are calculated.

There is a formula that Bookmakers use...

But, it's not a simple one!

I found this post on FlatStats but...

Trying to make sense of it...

Soon had me banging my head on the desk!

focus-ratings-banging-heads

And so...

I cheated!

I just took the 7 races from Bath yesterday and took the prices of the winner and those of the horse that came second and multiplied them together and then compared them to the actual CSF payout.

I then came up with an average which I used as the CSF payout.

Actually, the CSF payout depends on loads of factors but this is the best I could do!

That's what is displayed on the CSF Calc tab.

My Strategy

Rather than chase CSFs...

I'm rather tempted to just do one £2 CSF accumulator each day (based on those races highlighted on the Detailed Analysis - Strike Rate Order tab) if...

Such a thing is allowed?

If you are looking to profit from CSFs then you are better off looking at those races highlighted on the Detailed Analysis - ROI Order tab

Or dive in and come up with strategies of your own?

Your thoughts please?

So, I'm not sure where else to look...

Or what else to look at?

If you have any thoughts on what I should be looking at then please leave a comment here and I'll investigate.

In any case, there's plenty of information in the spreadsheets that I've published over the last two days.

Perhaps you might want to discuss forecasts (and a potential strategy) on the forum?

And make this a community effort?

I'm going to take a look at Tricasts tomorrow, and see if this strategy works for them.

Finally

I do apologise for the Fawlty Towers images that I have inserted over the last few posts....

It's just that I've been in a bit of a Basil Fawlty mode whilst I've been doing all this number crunching...

Or, a sort of cross between Basil Fawlty, Stephen Hawkings and, rather worryingly, that chap who used to sing backing vocals in Boney M!

I really must start getting out more?

So, all things considered...

focus-ratings-something-different

It's probably time I moved onto something completely different?

Like adding the Betfair Back, Lay and Price betting options to the Builder?

And sensible things like that?

By the way...

I've just sort of slightly noticed that we've just got the CSF in the 2:40pm at Lingfield.

The race had an RC1 of 94% - perhaps that's something else to look at?

Oh, b*gger!

I shouldn't have said that, should I?

Now, I'm going to have to go back and investigate the effect of RC1 on CSFs!

Anyway...

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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