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Is the Early Bird Preview Accurate?

earlybirdThe only difference between the Early Bird Preview ratings and the normal, morning of race day, ratings is that the forecast prices for the Early Bird Preview aren't quite as accurate as those of the main, race day ratings..

This may affect the confidence levels assigned to the rated horses and, in turn, determine whether they end up as top three rated or not.

Although the Early Bird Ratings have only been available for the last week or so, i thought that I'd take a quick look to see how the accuracy compared with that of the race morning full ratings.

Results - 28th February 2013

Now, taking just one day as an example lets look at the results for the Early Bird Preview and the Race Day Full Ratings...

Early Bird Ratings...

Races = 27
Top Rated Horse Wins = 10
Top Rated Horse Win Strike Rate = 37.04%

Top Rated Horse Places = 17
Top Rated Horse Place Strike Rate = 62.96%

Top Three Rated Horses Wins = 19
Top Three Rated Horses Strike Rate = 70.37%

Full Race Day Ratings...

Races = 29
Top Rated Horse Wins = 10
Top Rated Horse Win Strike Rate = 34.48%

Top Rated Horse Places = 16
Top Rated Horse Place Strike Rate = 55.17%

Top Three Rated Horses Wins = 19
Top Three Rated Horses Strike Rate = 65.52%

Results - last 6 days of March

Over the 6 day period that the Early Bird Previews have been running, the following are the results...

Early Bird Ratings...

Races = 126
Top Rated Horse Wins = 33
Top Rated Horse Win Strike Rate = 26.19%

Top Rated Horse Places = 74
Top Rated Horse Place Strike Rate = 58.73%

Top Three Rated Horses Wins = 78
Top Three Rated Horses Strike Rate = 61.90%

Full Race Day Ratings...

Races = 122
Top Rated Horse Wins = 33
Top Rated Horse Win Strike Rate = 27.05%

Top Rated Horse Places = 73
Top Rated Horse Place Strike Rate = 59.84%

Top Three Rated Horses Wins = 73
Top Three Rated Horses Strike Rate = 59.84%

From this sample we can see that the win strike rate is slightly higher for the Full Race Day ratings and slightly better for the Early Bird Preview when it comes to places strike rate.

Conclusion...

From the results shown above we can see that the Early Bird Preview ratings were actually more accurate on the 28th February than the actual full ratings calculated and published on the morning of the race!

This is actually a freak occurrence but does go to show that, for our purposes, the Early Bird Preview is just as accurate as the Full Race Day Ratings are.

I rather suspect that, as the ratings become more and more accurate, a small discrepency between the Early Bird Preview and the Full Race Day Ratings will appear - in favour of the latter.

Only time will tell....

keith-eckstein1

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