Lowest on Yield – 3

The Best Laid Plans...

I mentioned in my last post that I thought that there might be a place betting strategy to be found from the lowest yield horse (from the top three rated horses) as we had an incredible strike rate.

However, as we all know...

Strike Rate is Vanity - It's Profits that counts!

And that's certainly true here.

The lowest on yield horses are going to have very low prices anyway and, that's even more so when you look at Betfair Place Prices.

Introduction

As I mentioned in Lowest on Yield - 2 I have decided to test a number of possible strategies at the same time.

I shall be calling these strategies Lowest on Yield Strategy or LOYS and they will be numbered as LOYS1, LOYS2 etc.

The Strategies...

1). LOYS1 - Lowest on yield horse from the top three rated horses on the first page of the ratings in non-handicap races.

This is the current strategy and is a result of my observations.

2). LOYS2 - Lowest on yield horse from all horses in the race on the first page of the ratings in non-handicap races.

I have been informed that there is more value to be had by looking at all the horses in the race rather than just the top three.

3). LOYS3 - Lowest on yield horse from the top three rated horses in the race for all rated races in non-handicap races.

I have based my observations on just the first page of the ratings but there may be a better cut off point.

4). LOYS4 - Lowest on yield horse from all horses in the race for all rated races in non-handicap races.

Who know what this might reveal?

I have decided to add another potential strategy which I shall call LOYS5.

This will look at the possibility of Place Betting the selections.

Process

In order to investigate LOYS5 I created a spreadsheet. This is based upon exactly 2 years of data (to make the calculations easier for me) from (and including) the 8th of July 2013 to the 7th of July 2015.

That spreadsheet may be found at http://focusratings.com/data/LOYS5.xls

The Analysis

The spreadsheet contains UK only lowest on yield horses (from the top three rated horses) in non-handicap races with 5 or more runners.

Now, it didn't take me long to realise that there is no value at all in looking at place betting the lowest on yield horses.

I first analysed the lowest on yield horses (from the top three rated horses) for all races.

I then went on to look at just those races on the first page of the ratings.

Both times I came up with a blank.

However, that's not such a bad thing; the initial analysis shows that I shouldn't waste my time on looking for profits where, by the nature of the selections (lowest on yield almost certainly means low prices), there is no profit to be found.

Conclusion

So, no joy with a place betting system but that's not so bad.

At the moment we have a very basic system which seems to be doing well (yesterday we got 4 out of 5 selections and doubled our stakes.)

It looks like some filters do need to be added to ensure long term profitability but we're not so far off.

We now know that there isn't a place betting strategy to be exploited; however, you've got access to the data (http://focusratings.com/data/LOYS5.xls) and you may be able to come up with something that I have missed.

I now need to look at the top three rated horses in all races (not just the first page of the ratings) to, if for no other reason, identify a cut off point.

I'm currently only looking at the first page of the ratings but, logically, perhaps I should use more races when there are more meetings and vice versa.

You do need to be aware that I'm only scratching the surface here; I do need to do a whole lot more analysis but...

I'm doing it that way for a reason - by knowing where to look (and what to look at), I'll find it easier to go on to the next stage.

And your feedback is certainly helping me; which means that it would be rude of me not to say...

I'd like to thank you for your feedback so far - it has been very helpful.

My next step is to look at finding out that vital cut off point; thus, I shall be looking at the lowest yield horse from the top three rated horses from all races.

Stay tuned for another installment of "Keith's hobby - because he's crap at building Airfix kits and he hasn't got a train set!"

As always...

My kindest regards