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Place Betting Strategy

mad_scientistHandicap Races

I have created a new spreadsheet which just shows Handicap races.

The data that I am using is from the 8th of July 2013 to the 9th of June 2015.

In other words, almost 2 years of data.

I am looking at all handicap races with 3 or more runners.

I'll share the raw data in case you want to come up with a better way of doing things.

There are a number of tabs along the bottom of the spreadsheet.

The first tab contains the raw data and is named Data.

This shows the top on yield horse (of the top three rated horses) for every handicap race for a 23 month period where there were 3 or more runners.

Race Types

I started off by looking at Race Types.

As we know, Focus Ratings does better with some race types than it does with others.

So, why not just remove those unprofitable Race Types (for this strategy of place betting the top on yield of the top three rated horses) from the data straight away?

I have also split the data in to three groups; 3 to 7 runners, 8 to 15 runners and 16 plus runners.

The logic to this is that, to Focus Ratings, a small NH Beginners Chase is different to a medium sized one and a big NH Beginners Chase is a different race altogether.

I showed the analysis of the race types on the Race Type Analysis tab.

I've highlighted the Race Types that are profitable.

Off the bat, this gives us 125 races a month and yields £95 profit to £1250 staked.

The profit on investment is, thus, 7.56%

So, I created another data set showing just the profitable races and displayed that on the Data01 tab.

Class

From Data01 I then took a look at Class.

I displayed the results on the Class Analysis tab.

By only using the profitable classes, this gives us 97 races a month and yields £102 profit to £971.30 staked.

The profit on investment is now 10.50%

I then took out the unprofitable race classes and put the resulting data in a new tab which I called Data02.

R4 Status

Next, I took a look at R4 status and displayed the results on the R4 Status tab.

Bingo!

This clearly shows that it is unprofitable to back top rated horse in all but the 16 plus runner races.

By cutting out top rated horses in all but the 16 runner plus races this gives us 79 races a month and yields £110 profit to £793.48 staked.

The profit on investment is now 13.86%

I then took out the the top rated horses in all races apart from the 16 plus runner races and put the resulting data in a new tab which I called Data03.

Race Type Revisited

I then revisited the race type and removed six race types that either now lose us money (as a result of the other filters) or made us so little that they weren't worth bothering with.

I highlighted those race types.

By cutting out these races this gives us 76 races a month and yields £112 profit to £761.74 staked.

The profit on investment is now 14.48%

Now, this is where I intend to stop.

I created a new tab (Data04) and put the final set of races into it.

I then did some basic analysis

It seems that the strike rate is 37.33% which should help with a staking strategy.

Monthly Analysis

Finally I took a look at how the system/strategy performs month by month...

I showed the results of my analysis on the Monthly Analysis tab.

Monthly Analysis

Unfortunately the Monthly Analysis showed up some inconsistencies.

However, the numbers rule and, so...

I am now adding the following rules...

1). Feb - don't bet on 16 and above runner races.

2). March - don't bet on 8 to 15 runner races.

3). April - don't bet on 3 to 7 runner races.

4). May - don't bet on 3 to 7 runner races.

5). June - don't bet on 3 to 7 runner races.

6). July - don't bet on 15 runner (or less) races

7). October - don't bet on 3 to 7 runner races or 16 plus runner races.

8). November - don't bet.

9). December - don't bet on 16 plus runner races.

Now, I don't feel too happy about this but, we do know that April and October are difficult months to bet in because of the change over from Jumps to the Flat (and vice versa.)

We also know that the prices of winners in February and March are pretty low.

We know that August and September are good months for Focus Ratings.

And some of you have told me that you don't bet on Saturdays because it's too difficult.

So there is some logic to filtering this strategy according to when it works best.

Final Analysis

Now, this isn't a system, it's a strategy based upon observed data.

It's what has happened over the last 2 years and, in a year's time, we'll have to take a look at what has happened over the last 3 years and adjust the strategy accordingly.

The final data set is shown on the Data05 tab.

The analysis of that data is shown on the Final Analysis tab.

This final strategy now gives us a strike rate of 40.28%.

We get, on average, 2 races a day.

We get a return, on average, of £138 a month for £610 staked (to £10 stakes.)

In other words, you get a profit on investment, on a monthly basis, of 22.59%.

This assumes a 5% Betfair commission; I know that a few of you pay a lot less that that.

The Final Strategy

The final strategy is as follows...

1). Place bet (on Betfair) the horse with the highest yield (of the top three rated horses) in handicap races.

2). Bet in the following race types...

3 to 7 runners - All Weather - Apprentice
3 to 7 runners - All Weather - Claiming
3 to 7 runners - All Weather - Handicap
3 to 7 runners - All Weather - Nursery
3 to 7 runners - All Weather - Selling

3 to 7 runners - Flat - Handicap
3 to 7 runners - Flat - Maiden

3 to 7 runners - NH Chase - Novice

3 to 7 runners - NH Hurdles - Selling

8 to 15 runners - All Weather - Apprentice
8 to 15 runners - All Weather - Nursery

8 to 15 runners - Flat - Charity Stakes
8 to 15 runners - Flat - Maiden
8 to 15 runners - Flat - Nursery

8 to 15 runners - NH Chase - Amateur Race
8 to 15 runners - NH Chase - Conditional Stakes
8 to 15 runners - NH Chase - Handicap
8 to 15 runners - NH Chase - Intermediate Race
8 to 15 runners - NH Chase - Novice
8 to 15 runners - NH Chase - Selling

16 plus runners - All Weather - Amateur Race
16 plus runners - All Weather - Handicap

16 plus runners - Flat - Amateur Race
16 plus runners - Flat - Apprentice
16 plus runners - Flat - Charity Stakes
16 plus runners - Flat - Classified Stakes

16 plus runners - NH Chase - Handicap

16 plus runners - NH Hurdles - Conditional Stakes
16 plus runners - NH Hurdles - Selling

3). Only bet in the following Class races...

3 to 7 runners - classes 2, 4 & 5.
8 to 15 runners - classes 1 & 3 to 7.
16 plus runners - classes 2, 5, 6 & Irish races.

4). Don't bet on top rated horses unless there are 16 or more runners.

5). Observe the following rules according to the month of the year...

Feb – don’t bet on 16 and above runner races.

March – don’t bet on 8 to 15 runner races.

April – don’t bet on 3 to 7 runner races.

May – don’t bet on 3 to 7 runner races.

June – don’t bet on 3 to 7 runner races.

July – don’t bet on 15 runner (or less) races

October – don’t bet on 3 to 7 runner races or 16 plus runner races.

A Staking Strategy

To repeat what I said in my last post about my Place Betting Strategy...

I intend to start of with a betting bank of £1000.

Because of the near to 40% strike rate I want to bet to a 100 point bank.

Thus, every selection will be staked at £10.

However, then things get funny…

If I have 3 selections, I will be betting £30 on those 3 selections.

But, I want to adjust my stakes to concentrate on those selections with the highest ROI.

Thus, I may bet £15 on one horse, £10 on another and £5 on the third selection.

There’s no law that says that we have to bet the same on every horse…

If you had two selections (and, thus, £20 to stake) and one of those was Frankel and the other was Dennis the three legged Donkey,

Would it not be more sensible to put £18 on Frankel and £2 on the animal rescue center horse?

I’m not, at this point in time, exactly sure about how I’ll split the total stakes amongst the selections but, that’s just a question of maths.

At the end of every month I shall take out half of the profits for that month – that’ll largely be spent on medallions de Foie Gras and Braised Lamb Shank at the local restaurant – or other similar treats for Jill and me.

Then, I shall recalculate the betting bank and adjust the stakes accordingly.

Obviously, for a place betting strategy, there may be issues with finding liquidity on the Betfair Place market and, as a result, I may end up taking more out each month as a sort of annuity.

Conclusion

I don't think that I can do anything more here but I shall share the data with you so that you can try to make more sense of it yourself.

The spreadsheet in Excel format is available at... Strategy_handicap.xls

The spreadsheet in Open Office/Libre Office format is available at... Strategy_handicap.ods

As soon as the ratings, system selection, portfolio bets and place betting strategy selections have gone out I shall be taking the rest of the day off.

If you need me, I'll be found in the garden, reading with my eyes closed.

However, I don't have email in the garden and I'll probably (almost certainly) forget to take my phone with me.

I won't be sending out selections for the Handicap races today and I need to listen to your feedback first.

However, I will send out selections for the non-handicap races - and I'll try very hard not to cock them up today.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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