Place Betting Strategy

A Staking Strategy

They say that every mad scientist needs a muse...

Someone to inspire them to continually come up with new ideas and try new things.

However, most people who know me say that every mad scientist (or computer programmer who likes maths, for that matter) needs a straightjacket...

And a nice, comfortable, padded cell.

I don't know who is right but I do know that there's a guy in Wales who occasionally sends me the odd email (and some of them are rather odd) and...

They always start me thinking.

I received an email from this chap yesterday; he was looking to utilise a staking plan to capitalise on the good strike rate of the Place Betting Strategy.

I'm not a real fan of Staking Plans apart from...

1). My own Annuity Plan (well, I would like that one, wouldn't I) where you take out half your profits at month end (to spend on Red Wine and Smelly Cheese) and re-invest the rest - thus, ensuring bad breath and increasing your betting stakes proportionally, month on month. I do have to say that you do need to have some sort of stop loss strategy and apply a bit of human logic as well. Not to say, a decent supply of Listerene!

2). Stop at a winner (or stop at a loser or stop at a profit) as it works well with FR as our first page of ratings is generally the best as far as results are concerned. Just look at the first few races yesterday and the day before.

But his email did start me thinking (and number crunching - the two often go together. I am a bit obsessive about maths.)

And I wondered if there was a better way of betting on the Place Betting Strategy selections.

just an idea for the moment

I came up the the following statistics for the Place Betting Strategy...

1). Where our selection is a top rated horse, it wins (or gets profitably placed) 56.52% of the time.

2). Where our selection is a 2nd rated horse, it wins (or gets profitably placed) 40.41% of the time.

3). Where our selection is a 3nd rated horse, it wins (or gets profitably placed) 33.00% of the time.

Now, it makes sense to me to bet more money on those horses where you have a higher chance of winning (or getting profitably placed) and bet less money on those races where you stand a lower chance of winning (or getting profitably placed.)

I'm sure that there's a more scientific way of calculation this but...

It sort of seems logical to me to...

1). Bet 1 point on the 3rd rated when it is a selection.

2). Bet 2 points on the 2rd rated when it is a selection.

3). Bet 3 points on the top rated when it is a selection.

There were three 3rd rated selections and one 2nd rated selection yesterday so I would have bet, using this strategy, 5 units.

I'll compare the results to level staking (with level stakes of 1.25 units so that it all adds up.)

The Test

Worcester 15:15 - Wintour Leap - came 2nd - Betfair paid 2.79 for the place.

As we would have (using this strategy) bet 2 points (as the horse was 2nd rated) we would have made a 3.30 point profit.

Assuming a level stake of 1.25 points we would have normally made 2.31 points profit. Both calculations take a 5% commission into account.

We actually got the first three in the right order in this 8 horse race. Proof positive that God does actually exist and is smiling (or was, yesterday) on sunny Brittany.

Doncaster 18:15 - Gday Aussie - unplaced.

We have lost 1 point (as it was a 3rd rated horse) for the new strategy and 1.25 points (stakes adjusted) for the original strategy.

Newbury 18:30 - Clive Clifton - 2nd - Betfair paid 1.92 for the place.

We would have bet 1 point (as this was a third rated horse) and would have got a 0.824 point profit on investment.

Had we backed it according to level stakes we would have made a 1.28 point profit.

Limerick 19:10 - Fort Smith - non-runner.

Conclusion

Now, because of the non-runner, we are not comparing like we like as we are betting different amounts of money but...

The whole concept is that we bias our betting funds in favour of those horses which are more likely to win.

Yesterday, according to this strategy, we bet 4 points and made 4.124 points profit (a 103.10% profit on investment.)

Using level stakes we bet 3.75 points and made 3.59 points profit (a 95.73% profit on investment.)

I shall carry on watching this staking strategy for the PBS selections although, there's no reason why this couldn't be applied to any systematic betting strategy.

As always...

My kindest regards