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Place Betting Strategy

mad_scientistA Staking Strategy

Following on from yesterday's post about Staking for our new Place Betting Strategy...

Which can be found... Here.

There's been quite a lot of feedback (all favourable) and so...

I had no choice but to dive in and juggle some numbers.

I have done some more analysis on the last 23 days' data.

The spreadsheet that shows this work is available at... PBSJuly-staking.xls

Where we are now

At the moment I am (quite rightly, in my opinion) reporting the results on a daily basis on our http://focusratings.com/data/PBSJuly.xls spreadsheet to level stakes.

In the last 23 days there were 102 selections and, from those, there were 5 non runners.

That leaves us with 97 selections.

Just say that we are betting to £10 stakes, we would have laid out £970 and had £1082.47 back (assuming a Betfair commission of 5%.)

Thus, we have made a profit of £112.47

Now, yesterday I suggested that we change our stakes according to the R4 Status of the selection.

I did some analysis of the 23 month's worth of data that generated this system and I found that...

1). Where our selection is a top rated horse, it wins (or gets profitably placed) 56.52% of the time.

2). Where our selection is a 2nd rated horse, it wins (or gets profitably placed) 40.41% of the time.

3). Where our selection is a 3nd rated horse, it wins (or gets profitably placed) 33.00% of the time.

I suggested that...

1). Bet 1 point on the 3rd rated when it is a selection.

2). Bet 2 points on the 2rd rated when it is a selection.

3). Bet 3 points on the top rated when it is a selection.

I'm going to call this the PBS321 plan.

PBS321

I went through the 97 selections over the last 23 days and put some additional data in the PBS321 column (at... PBSJuly-staking.xls).

This shows that now, from the same 97 races, we have made £260.40 instead of £112.47

However, we are not comparing like from like as...

Our stakes are costing more.

For level stake betting we would have laid out £970 to get our £112.57 of profit.

For the PBS321 staking strategy we would have laid out £1,430 to make our £260.40 of profit.

And that's sort of cheating so...

I'll divide the £970 that we originally laid out by the £1,430 that have now laid out (with the PBS321 staking plan) to suggest a new stake to use with the PBS321 staking plan.

The answer was 0.678321678

In other words, we should still stake 3 points for a top rated horse, 2 points for a 2nd rated horse and 1 point for a 3rd rated horse but...

Assuming that we were originally staking at £10 a point, we should now be staking £6.78 a point.

By reducing our stakes to £6.78 a point we "only" end up making a profit of £176.64 (compared to the £112.57 that we made by betting to level stakes) for the same outlay.

There's some logic hiding away there somewhere

Now, on the face of it, it may seem strange that we reduce our stakes by about a third and end up making 57% more profit.

But, our 3rd rated horse only wins (or gets profitably placed) 33.00% of the time.

That means that it loses 67% of the time.

Now, if a horse is going to lose, which would you prefer to lose; the £10 that would be bet to level stakes or the £6.78 that we would be staking by using PBS321?

And our top rated horse wins (or gets profitably placed) 56.52% of the time.

If you knew that a selection had a better than odds on chance of winning (or being profitably placed) then would you want to bet more on that horse?

So, there is logic there.

Remember, you are betting the same amount with both the level stakes strategy or PBS321.

You just make more profit by using PBS321!

Conclusion

Now, in the next day or two I am going to explain how to use Proportional Betting but I thought that it was better to keep the two things separate for the moment.

Proportional Betting is a mathematically more sound method of deciding the stakes but it is difficult for me to explain.

On the PDF that I generate, I have now put a suggested Stake for the PBS321 staking strategy - it assumes that you'd normally bet £1 on a selection. I know that you can't do this on Betfair but I don't know what you each normally stake.

Thus, you might want to calculate and note down what your normal stake would be is and put it on a post it note (or similar.)

I have generated a test example of the new Place Betting Strategy PDF - you can see it at Sample PDF

But, basically, if the horse is 3rd rated you bet two thirds of your normal stake. If it is 2nd rated you bet your normal stake plus one third and...

If the horse is top rated you basically double your normal stake.

I hope that this fully explains the PBS321 staking strategy.

Basically, you use lower stakes, adjust those stakes according to how likely your selection is going to win (or be profitably placed) and, by doing this, you make more money.

And that can't be bad, can it.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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