Place Betting Strategy

Feedback

I've had plenty of feedback about the Place Betting System.

And I love feedback; especially when I can pass it on to you.

Yesterday, one member sent me an email and asked...

"If the 3rd rated only wins 33% of the time, what happens to profits if we just don't bet it?"

So, I immediately dived into the Spreadsheet (which is available at... PBSJuly-staking.xls) and started crunching some numbers.

The results are on the Analysis tab.

By taking out the 3rd rated horses we improve the strike rate and get 14.70695 profit returned to 42 units staked (to level stakes.)

That's better than the 11.24695 profit that we got from the level stake betting the top three rated (for 97 units staked) for the same period (up to Thursday.)

By ignoring the 3rd rated selections we get 43 selection from the 23 days the spreadsheet covers and we get bets 9 days out of 10.

Time for some analysis

I took a look at the original Analysis spreadsheet that I used to generate the strategy in the first place to test things out.

As you can see, the majority of the profits over the 23 month analysis period came from the 3rd rated horse.

This is down to the higher prices that the 3rd rated horses get placed at.

Avoid Odds-On

I received another two emails from members who both said that they were doubling their profits by avoiding selections that were Odds On (2.0 or less) in the live market.

Now, I can't test this as I don't have access to the actual live prices but, I respect the knowledge of both of these members and trust their judgement.

I did, however, do a quick query on the Actual Betfair Place Starting Price and have displayed the results below.

It is obvious that you lose money by betting on selections which start at 2.0 or less.

However, when you place your bet, you have no idea what the BFPP is going to be.

I guess that you could leave the bet until the last moment but that's not an option for most people.

Still, this is something that you might want to take into account when betting the Place Betting Strategy selections.

A Strategy and not a System

Now...

If you had restricted yourself to just the top rated horse and the 2nd rated horse, over the 23 months that I did the analysis on, you would have had £1,443 from 1100 bets.

You would have missed out on the £3,002 from the 1506 bets on the 3rd rated horse.

But this is a strategy and not a system and you should evaluate every selection on its own merits, every day.

Thus, if the code that generates the selections suggests that you back Dennis the Three Legged Donkey, you might want to pause and ask yourself if you really want to do that.

Conclusion

So, I'm between a rock and a hard place here...

It's obvious that, recently, you'd have done better by ignoring the 3rd rated selections but...

Long term, they make up most of the profits.

Likewise, I can't say what the eventual BFPP is going to be but it's clear that those horses which start at 2.0 or less will lose you money.

So, I'm going to swerve the question and leave it up to you.

After all, it's your money that you are betting; it's your children's inheritances that you are staking.

At the end of the day, it's your hard earned cash.

On a day to day basis I shall report on the results to level stakes for the top three rated selections as that is what the strategy and...

Leave it up to you to make up your own minds.

In any case, the basic strategy is proving to be profitable; these are just two ways that you may be able to make it more profitable.

As always...

My kindest regards