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Place Betting Strategy Selections

mad_scientistHello again

As I mentioned earlier this morning...

I am working on splitting the Place Betting Strategy into two separate strategies.

For this I am using 23 months of data.

This will increase the accuracy and profits from the smaller races and make the strategy for the larger ones simpler and more logical.

However, I have just worked out the selections for today's racing based upon the existing strategy.

The rules of this strategy are...

Place bet on Betfair (back) the...

1). Top 3 rated horse that is top on Yield (of the top three rated horses)

2). In non-handicap races

3). Where there are 8 or more runners

4). Where the horse has a Forecast Starting Price (my unique forecast starting price) as follows...

Runners Price Band Races
16 to 19 12.0 to 40.0 33
16 to 19 4.0 to 8.0 23
20 Plus 12.0 to 22.00 11
20 Plus 2.0 to 8.0 9
8 to 15 10.0 to 18.0 268
8 to 15 25.0 Plus 78

5). If the race has between 8 and 15 runners then it must have a RC0 of 1.

Today there are 3 races where those conditions were met. I have double checked the selections but, after yesterday's cock up, you might want to double check as well. I'm sort of multitasking a bit, today and...

Apparently, that's something that men can't do!

The selections are...

1). Salisbury 14:50 - Maybe Tomorrow

2). Doncaster 15:05 - She is no Lady

3). Doncaster 15:40 - Burning Love

Now, these selections are based upon the analysis that I have done so far. I shall be refining the strategy and so you might want to wait until that is done.

Having said that, the current strategy has given us 3 winners from 4 selections over the last 2 days and has returned 15.70 points to 4.0 points staked (assuming a 5% Betfair commission.)

As I've mentioned before, this is a strategy and not a system and, thus, you might want to have a think about the 14:50 at Salisbury as the horse hasn't run for 235 days. Then again, he is the Trainer's only horse at Salisbury and the Jockey's only ride at that meeting.

Finally, thank you for all the feedback that you've given me on this strategy. It's really helping me and I've got a bit of a nice warm feeling about this strategy.

When I introduced Yield last July, I knew that it meant something but I didn't really know what that something was. Then, one member started seeing some impressive results for the horse that was top on yield (of all horses in a race) and mentioned it to me a few times (thanks Peter.)

So, I've sort of been keeping an eye on it and, many times I've said to myself "If only we got a prize for coming second or third."

place_betting_strategy

Well, of course, we can get a prize for horses that come second or third (or fourth in some races.)

So, whether you choose to ignore today's selections and wait for a more refined version of the strategy (I don't really like those price band restrictions, it has to be said) or,

Just paper trade them (or risk a silly sixpence on them),

I wish you all the luck with today's racing; I feel far happier on days when there are only 4 meetings to worry about.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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