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R6 Plus Price Based Analysis

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Over the weekend I thought that I'd start to take a look at the best ways of benefiting from R6 Plus.

I decided to start of by looking at how the results vary according to Forecast Starting Price - I had a feeling that odds on favourites might prove profitable.

I created a spreadsheet with 102 weeks data.

This Spreadsheet may be found at... R6PriceBasedAnalysis.xlsx

Tab 1 - R6 Plus - This tab lists every R6 Plus top rated horse in Forecast Starting Price order.

Tab 2 - R6 Plus Analysis - This tab shows some analysis of those horses.

2019-03-11--1552284645_466x185_scrot As you can see, those horses that had a forecast starting price of 1.0 to 1.49 were slightly profitable but...

In general, the higher the FSP was, the more profitable those races were.

So, as shown below...

It makes more sense to concentrate on those horses with a FSP of 3.0 and upwards.

2019-03-11--1552284817_482x192_scrot

However, as shown below...

We can refine this further by only using those horses with a FSP of 5.0 and above.

This reduces the number of selections by 50% to a reasonable 4.4 a day and yields a reasonable strike rate of 25% with a POI of 51%

2019-03-11--1552284983_479x150_scrot

But, if we really go for it...

And only use those horses with a FSP of 7.0 or higher,

We get a decent POI of about 70% but, I think that I'd find a 22% Strike Rate a little bit difficult to live with.

2019-03-11--1552285212_476x124_scrot

Class based analysis

Now, as R6 are those horses which are top rated both on R5 and on Advance Ratings (and R6 Plus are those R6 horses but only for those race types where R6 is blindly profitable) and...

Advance Ratings is more accurate the higher the class of race...

I thought that I'd take a look at the effect of class on the outcome of the race.

Tab 3 - R6 Plus Class Analysis Refined - This Tab (you may have to scroll up to the top) shows the effect of CLass on the results, sorted by FSP (forecast starting price.)

Now, it's a bit difficult to see but, the lower the class of the race, the higher the FSP you need to use as a starting point.

As you scroll down you will see the various levels of analysis that I performed in order to find a profitable strategy but, the most profitable strategy had actually been staring me in my fave all along.

See below...

2019-03-11--1552285850_663x482_scrot

By blindly backing top rated R6 Plus horses in Class 1 and CLass 2 races, regardless of the FSP...

You end up with 1 race a day (or 7 a week) and a Strike Rate of 41 with a POI (to ISP) of 57%.

Now, that's not so bad for a rating agency, is it?

Conclusion...

It's a little bit strange that I started off looking for ways to filter top rated R6 Plus horses by FSP and ended up with a system that doesn't take FSP into account at all, but...

That's often how these things work out.

Something to make you smile...

New Car

A fifteen year-old boy came home with a Porsche and his parents began to scream, "Where did you get that car???!!!" He calmly told them, "I bought it today."

"With what money?" demanded his parents. "We know what a Porsche costs."

"Well," said the boy, "this one cost me fifteen dollars."

So the parents began to yell even louder. "Who would sell a car like that for fifteen dollars?" they said.

"It was the lady up the street," said the boy." I don't know her name - they just moved in. She saw me ride past on my bike and asked me if I wanted to buy a Porsche for fifteen dollars."

"Oh No," moaned the mother, "she must be a child abuser. Who knows what she will do next? John, you go right up there and see what's going on."

So the boy's father walked up the street to the house where the lady lived and found her out in the yard calmly planting petunias! He introduced himself as the father of the boy to whom she had sold a Porsche for fifteen dollars and demanded to know why she did it.

"Well," she said, "this morning I got a phone call from my husband. I thought he was on a business trip, but it seems he has run off to Hawaii with his secretary and doesn't intend to come back. He asked me to sell his new Porsche and send him the money. So I did."

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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