Results by Race Type

Although it's still early days, I've done a bit of analysis on the performance of Focus Ratings for the various race types so far encountered.

I intend to provide a similar analysis every month so that we get a good feel for where Focus Ratings does better and where it needs more attention.

Long term, I imagine that I should be able to incorporate the historic success per race type as a sort of co-efficient that points us to Hot Races.

Anyway, although there currently isn't much data to be going on with, the results are listed below....

 

Results

	Wins	Races	Strike Rate
AW Amateur	1	7	14.29%
AW Apprentice	4	21	19.05%
AW Claiming	9	22	40.91%
AW Handicap	61	340	19.06%
AW Maiden	28	75	39.44%
AW Selling	9	23	45.00%
AW Selling (Handicap)	2	7	28.57%
NH Chase - Amateur	1	3	50.00%
NH Chase – Handicap	30	113	27.78%
NH Chase – Hunter Chase	3	18	17.65%
NH Chase – Juvenile	3	11	30.00%
NH Chase – Novice	11	34	32.35%
NH Chase – Novice (Handicap)	8	27	30.77%
NH Chase – (Other)	3	10	33.33%
NH Flat -	0	1	0.00%
NH Flat – NH Flat	9	38	25.00%
NH Flat – Pro/Am	2	2	100.00%
NH Hurdles -	0	2	0.00%
NH Hurdles -	1	1	100.00%
NH Hurdles – Conditional Stakes	3	10	30.00%
NH Hurdles – Conditional Stakes	21	129	17.21%
NH Hurdles – Other	3	14	23.08%
NH Hurdles – Juvenile	3	5	60.00%
NH Hurdles – Maiden	8	31	27.59%
NH Hurdles – Novice	16	55	29.63%
NH Hurdles – Selling	1	4	25.00%
Total	256	1079	24.93%

 

Filtering out the lower strike rates.

Filtering out the races with lower strike rates (and those with not enough examples) we are left with the following table...

	Wins	Races	Strike Rate	AV SP
AW Claiming	9	22	40.91%	1.90
AW Maiden	28	75	39.44%	2.86
AW Selling	9	23	45.00%	3.77
NH Chase – Juvenile	3	11	30.00%	2.00
NH Chase – Novice	11	34	32.35%	2.17
NH Chase – Novice (Handicap)	8	27	30.77%	3.38
NH Chase – (Other)	3	10	33.33%	1.35
NH Hurdles – Conditional Stakes	3	10	30.00%	4.33
NH Hurdles – Juvenile	3	5	60.00%	2.25
NH Hurdles – Novice	16	55	29.63%	2.29

 

 

Conclusion...

A quick glance of the results shown above suggest the following...

Currently, Focus Ratings really excels with...

1).  All Weather Maiden's (Strike Rate of 39.44% at an average ISP of 2.86)

2).  All Weather Selling (Strike Rate of 45.00% at an average ISP of 3.77)

3).  NH Novice Handicap Chases (Strike Rate of 30.77% at an average ISP of 3.38)

4).  NH Conditional Hurdles (Strike Rate of 30.00% at an average ISP of 4.33) and

5).  NH Juvenile Hurdles (Strike Rate of 60.00% at an average ISP of 2.25)

It should be borne in mind that the prices quoted are the average prices for all winners in that type of race and...

I am quoting ISP rather than BSP - some people will surely be using the Early Bird Preview ratings to get on at BOG to further maximise profits.