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I mentioned that I had... "an assumption (and I'm aware that assumptions are the mother of all cock ups) is the the higher the class, the faster the race.
But that's just an assumption and I need to crunch the numbers to prove it, one way or another."
Well, normally when I tell you my ideas about which horse might have a good chance in a race, that horse comes last.
Today, in the Morning News, after I spoke a bit about a race at Newcastle, they even abandoned the meeting!
I guess that they thought that I had somehow jinxed it.
But, for once...
I got the effect of class on speed right!
The following table shows the Average Seconds per Furlong for the different classes.
Class | ASF |
1 | 12.23608679 |
2 | 12.70327672 |
3 | 12.6409579 |
4 | 12.71776344 |
5 | 12.90528982 |
6 | 13.03401306 |
7 | 13.00061638 |
Unknown | 12.53561455 |
This, once again, is easier to read on a chart.
Please click on the image to see it full size. It should open in a new tab.
The chart clearly shows a relationship between class and the speed of the race.
Although, on a statistical basis, I could treat class 6 races and class 7 races as the same.
I'm not sure why there is so much variance from the trend line for class 1 and 2 races but that represent a low percentage of all races as the following table shows.
The following table shows the number of races (over the review period) for the different classes.
Class | Races |
1 | 27 |
2 | 101 |
3 | 107 |
4 | 360 |
5 | 1157 |
6 | 1221 |
7 | 49 |
Unknown | 348 |
Total | 3370 |
So, it's obvious that I need to take Class into the equation.
Next on the list is Race Type. I'll need to try to evaluate where Maidens run faster than Sellers (and so forth.)
I have a feeling that, with a few exceptions, there won't be much variance.
Thank you for all your comments so far; I plan on doing a summary post tomorrow and I'll use some of those comments (without mentioning the name of the contributor) in that post.
And, I think that, as a result of one of those emails, we may have a reason for why Wolves runs so much slower than the other tracks.
As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome.
My kindest regards
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