Speed Ratings – 3

In my last post...

I mentioned that I had... "an assumption (and I'm aware that assumptions are the mother of all cock ups) is the the higher the class, the faster the race.

But that's just an assumption and I need to crunch the numbers to prove it, one way or another."

Well, normally when I tell you my ideas about which horse might have a good chance in a race, that horse comes last.

Today, in the Morning News, after I spoke a bit about a race at Newcastle, they even abandoned the meeting!

I guess that they thought that I had somehow jinxed it.

But, for once...

I got the effect of class on speed right!

Class...

The following table shows the Average Seconds per Furlong for the different classes.

This, once again, is easier to read on a chart.

Please click on the image to see it full size. It should open in a new tab.

The chart clearly shows a relationship between class and the speed of the race.

Although, on a statistical basis, I could treat class 6 races and class 7 races as the same.

I'm not sure why there is so much variance from the trend line for class 1 and 2 races but that represent a low percentage of all races as the following table shows.

The following table shows the number of races (over the review period) for the different classes.

Conclusion

So, it's obvious that I need to take Class into the equation.

Next on the list is Race Type. I'll need to try to evaluate where Maidens run faster than Sellers (and so forth.)

I have a feeling that, with a few exceptions, there won't be much variance.

Thank you for all your comments so far; I plan on doing a summary post tomorrow and I'll use some of those comments (without mentioning the name of the contributor) in that post.

And, I think that, as a result of one of those emails, we may have a reason for why Wolves runs so much slower than the other tracks.

As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome.

My kindest regards