Speed Ratings – 3

In my last post...

I mentioned that I had... "an assumption (and I'm aware that assumptions are the mother of all cock ups) is the the higher the class, the faster the race.

But that's just an assumption and I need to crunch the numbers to prove it, one way or another."

Well, normally when I tell you my ideas about which horse might have a good chance in a race, that horse comes last.

Today, in the Morning News, after I spoke a bit about a race at Newcastle, they even abandoned the meeting!

I guess that they thought that I had somehow jinxed it.

But, for once...

I got the effect of class on speed right!

Class...

The following table shows the Average Seconds per Furlong for the different classes.

Class	ASF
1	12.23608679
2	12.70327672
3	12.6409579
4	12.71776344
5	12.90528982
6	13.03401306
7	13.00061638
Unknown	12.53561455

This, once again, is easier to read on a chart.

Please click on the image to see it full size. It should open in a new tab.

The chart clearly shows a relationship between class and the speed of the race.

Although, on a statistical basis, I could treat class 6 races and class 7 races as the same.

I'm not sure why there is so much variance from the trend line for class 1 and 2 races but that represent a low percentage of all races as the following table shows.

The following table shows the number of races (over the review period) for the different classes.

Class	Races
1	27
2	101
3	107
4	360
5	1157
6	1221
7	49
Unknown	348
Total	3370

Conclusion

So, it's obvious that I need to take Class into the equation.

Next on the list is Race Type. I'll need to try to evaluate where Maidens run faster than Sellers (and so forth.)

I have a feeling that, with a few exceptions, there won't be much variance.

Thank you for all your comments so far; I plan on doing a summary post tomorrow and I'll use some of those comments (without mentioning the name of the contributor) in that post.

And, I think that, as a result of one of those emails, we may have a reason for why Wolves runs so much slower than the other tracks.

As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome.

My kindest regards