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That Feel Good Number…

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsAs promised...

The following is an article which explains how I came up with the Investment Betting strategy or...

More accurately, it explains my processes when I attempt to come up with a strategy for Focus Ratings.

The data that I refer to can be found at...http://focusratings.com/data/InvestmentBetting.xlsx

The data cover a nearly 2 year period - 102 weeks to be exact.

1). Top on R5

If you download and open the spread sheet you'll see that it consists of 8 tabs (at the bottom of the screen.)

Tab 1 - Top on R5 lists all those top rated on R5 horses over the period.

The column headings should be quite straight forward but Runs refers to runners in that race and ARS refers to that horse's Advance Ratings status (with 1 being top rated on Advance Ratings.)

2). Top on R5 and ADR

Tab 2 - Top on R5 and ADR lists just those horses (over the nearly 2 year period) which were both top rated on Focus Ratings R5 and also on Advance Ratings.

3). R6

Now, this is where it gets interesting...

Tab 3 - R6 shows the historical Strike Rate and POI (Profit on Investment) for all the R6 rated races.

R6 are ratings for those horse which are both top on R5 and also top on Advance Ratings.

As you can see, there's a fair bit of red on that tab; those are the race types that are blindly unprofitable over a long term.

So, we get rid of those race types to create R6 Plus.

4). R6+

Tab 4 - R6+ shows those R6 rated race types (in race type order) that are blindly profitable over the long term.

If you scroll down you'll see that there are about 80 such races a week and they return a strike rate of 35.78% and a POI (to ISP) of 26.84%

5). IB

In order to turn those R6+ selections into a strategy I just decided to cherry pick those race types which had the highest historical strike rate.

Tab 5 - R6+ shows those 26 race types.

Why 26 race types?

Well, I wanted to end up with a strategy that gave me about 18 selections a week.

Now, I have to admit to a slight up-cock here as those 18 selections a week are those horses that actually ran; it doesn't include any non-runners. This is one of the reasons why we are getting more that 18 selections a week.

If you scroll down you'll see that these race types give us a strike rate of 49.70% and a POI of 34.25%

These race types give us the Investment Betting selections. As you can see from the screenshot below (taken this morning) we are top on the monthly league table at Racing-Index.com

For more detail, click on the image but don't forget to click on your Back button to return to this article.

2019-05-17--1558081791_1129x574_scrot

The beady eyed amongst you might have noticed that the 6th highest performing service is also one of ours...

diamondsandgoldEBR - Diamonds and Gold is a free system that my EarlyBirdRatings.com members get. EarlyBirdRatings is Focus Ratings R4 but only the evening before preview ratings. It doesn't have R5, R6, R6+, the System Builder, the Live Ratings and all that good stuff so, it is a bit cheaper than Focus Ratings.

You can read about how I came up with Diamonds and Gold by downloading the eBook from this link... http://earlybirdratings.com/documents/DiamondsandGold.pdf

If you wish to receive the Diamonds and Gold selections every evening then just drop me a line and I'll add you to the email list.

6). IB FGN

As I mentioned yesterday, I needed some way of valuing the race types in order to refine Investment Betting.

So, what I did was create a new number which I call FGN - this is short for Feel Good Number which is about the best way I can sum up this number.

FGN is the historical strike rate multiplied by the historical POI. The higher, the better.

Tab 6 - IB FGN shows the 26 race types that are used for Investment Betting in descending FGN order.

7). IB FGN +

Tab 7 - IB FGN + shows a sub set of the 26 race types that are used for Investment Betting in descending FGN order.

I decided only to use those race types that had a historical FGN of 1500 or more.

As you can see, this give us about 8 selections a week and a historical strike rate of 47.22% with a historical POI of 54.84%

8). IB+

Tab 8 - IB+ + shows those race types listed on tab 7 but sorted into race type order.

Conclusion...

I hope that this has explained how I generally come up with systems or strategies (and specifically how I came up with the strategy that produces our Investment Betting and Investment Betting Plus selections.

I have put in a request to Racing-Index.com to ask if I can proof the Investment Betting Plus selections as well as the Investment Betting selections.

You are free to choose which set of selections (if any) that you choose to use.

Now, some of you avid system builder will have noticed that I have done no filtering apart from race type. You may wish to refine the strategy by...

a). Excluding any races with less than 5 runners or more than 13 runners.
b). Excluding any races where the going is heavy (too much risk of a horse falling, pulling up or unseating Rider?)
c). Excluding lower class races (more difficult to rate and R6 Plus is more accurate the higher the class of the race - or, the higher the value of the race for Irish racing.)

And so forth.

The spread sheet (at...http://focusratings.com/data/InvestmentBetting.xlsx) contains all the data you need to perform the queries should you wish to refine the strategy yourself.

As always, your thoughts and comments are very welcome.

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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