Morning News – 18/09/2020

Good morning... Whilst doing some work yesterday... I came across an interesting angle based upon betting on the R6 top rated horse when it is the clear Forecast Favourite (using my forecast prices.) You will need to look at the Full PDF to identify the clear Forecast Favourite. If you do this for the following race types... All Weather Conditions Race (non-hc) Listed Race (non-hc) Maiden (non-hc) Nursery (hc) Selling (non-hc) Flat Amateur Race (hc) Apprentice (hc) Listed Race (non-hc) National Hunt - Chase) Graduation Chase (non-hc) Listed Race (non-hc) Maiden (non-hc) Qualified Riders Race National Hunt - Flat Conditional Stakes (non-hc) Maiden (non-hc) Pro-Am (non-hc) National Hunt - Hurdles Claiming (non-hc) Conditional Stakes (hc) Listed Race (non-hc) Maiden (hc) Qualified Riders Race (non-hc) Historically (based upon 2 full years of data) you get... Strike Rate : 79.41% POI (to ISP): 21.15% About 75 races a year. Just thought I'd share.

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Morning News – 17/09/2020

Good morning... We are on strike over here in France today. I'm not sure what we are striking about... It's something to do with Coronavirus but, I'm not really sure that it's the government's fault that some guy in China ate an under cooked bat. And I'm also not sure that the best response is to gather in large groups in public to rant and rage and to do lots of shouting. Still, if it keeps the natives happy? We are lucky in my part of France (Finisterre - which means the end of the world) we are one of the few departments (counties) which is not considered at risk. This isn't because we are more healthy here but more to do with the fact that we are so behind the times... We haven't got round to inventing Coronavirus yet. On another note... Today I shall be working on the problem where the Speed Ratings don't get copied to the data directory every now and again. If I manually watch the ratings being produced, they always work but... The moment I turn my back - yes, you've got it. I'm not sure what the answer is but I may have to put a 10 minute pause in the script to give it time to do everything it needs to do before sending the ratings out.

Morning News – 16/09/2020

Good morning... Well, it's forecast to be vry hot over here for the next few days. So, I'm going to make the most of it... And go out for a long walk this afternoon. There's a cafe/bar/bookshop on the other side of the forest. about 4 miles away so, That looks like a good destination. I have a horrible feeling that the cafes and bars are likely to be closed down again so I want to take advantage whilst I can.

Morning News – 15/09/2020

Good morning... I want to share... One of the things that came up yesterday when I was doing some work on background statistics. For Focus Ratings R6 ratings, Dundalk is blindly profitable out of the box for non-handicap races. However... If you restrict yourself to races with 5, 6,7 or 17 runners, You get, A Strike Rate of 47.01% and A Profit on Investment (to ISP) of 63.21% You'll get about 1 race a week. Just thought I'd share.

Morning News – 14/09/2020

Good morning... After a nice weekend off... With some time spent on trying to sort out my email problem, It's back to work for me. Over the next few days I will be moving my email accounts, one by one, to another machine. And then... I have a busy schedule of work to catch up on. But, hopefully, I will make some real progress this week.

Morning News – 12/09/2020

Good morning... I was hoping to have the weekend off but... I've realised that I've got a serious email problem. I believe that most people access their email online but I download the mails to a desktop PC email client. I've lost an entire email account from this client and some of my emails from other accounts are going straight to spam; even though the spam filters are all empty. Now, obviously... I can restore the email database from a daily backup but, The email database contains every email since I started using Thunderbird (my email client) in 2007. Thus it is 12.6 GB in size. Apparently you should never let the database go over 4GB as, unless you do that, you may suffer corruptions. So I'm going to have to try to archive my existing email database and start again with a new empty one. This should work (I'll still be able to access outstanding emails from the current database) but I have no idea how long it is going to take to do. Fun, fun, fun.

Morning News – 11/09/2020

Good morning... As I watched the results coming in yesterday... I noticed that we were getting quite a few top three rated winners at high prices. We had two 6/1 top rated winners but, Also, 6 top three rated winners of 5/1 or more. Thus, I have started looking into ways of identifying the circumstances which generate those high priced winners. The only thing that stands out so far is that the majority of those races where a top three rated horse wins at a high price is that RC0 (my quality of ratings metric) = 3.0 That mean that those are races where I can rate at least 88% of all runners. That sort of makes sense to me but I do know that I have a lot more work to do.

Morning News – 10/09/2020

Good morning... Yesterday's news from Doncaster... Has got to have us all wondering about what else may happen to our racing. Still, we can only wait and see. On a more positive note... I've just checked Racing-index.com EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections are now the top rated service over the last 12 months. They're also the top rated service over the last month, the last 3 months and the last six months as well. Which, bearing in mind the difficulties that we've faced with horse racing this year, Is pretty good going.

Morning News – 09/09/2020

Good morning... I guess that everyone is excited about the start of the St. Leger meeting today. I have to hospital today (nothing serious, just a routine checkup) so I'll be out most of the day. I don't drive at the moment as I tend to fall asleep randomly which isn't always the best thing if you are behind the wheel of a car... So I'll have to rely on public transport. We have actually invented the bus in my part of back of beyond Brittany. They're just few and far between.

Morning News

Good morning... I do apologise for the lateness of today's ratings. For some reason, the initial ratings only showed 1 meeting. I fixed the problem but it did take some time. Sometimes not being able to sleep... And, thus, getting up early, Does have its benefits.