Morning News

Good morning... Well, not such a great day for the ratings yesterday but... That happens from time to time. In the long run the ratings are blindly profitable so any bad days should put into perspective. I have been working on some strategies to best profit from the Hong Kong ratings and should be able to update you on my findings over the weekend. I have also been looking at draw bias at Happy Valley... That has given me some interesting things to think about. Once again, once I have my data in some sort of presentable order, I'll publish it for you to see.

Morning News

Good morning... Well, we have some racing today... 8 races at Sha Tin. You can bet on Hong Kong racing by using the Betfair sportsbook. Of the traditional bookies, UniBet.com probably has the cleanest (in my opinion) interface. I'm in a bit of an email backlog at the moment; It's like someone has put a big sign up on the internet - a sign that says..."Stop what you're doing, no matter what you're doing, stop right now and... Email Keith!" I am gradually catching up though so please be patient. The links to today's rating for Sha Tin are... Ratings in PDF format (top 3 rated horses.) Ratings in PDF format (all horses.)

Morning News

Good morning... I have been doing some work on trying to filter the Compass Ratings selections to see if a more systematic approach can be created to better profit from them. As I mentioned yesterday, one member bet on the 4 races on Sunday where the CPR (Compass Rating) of the top rated horse was 2.0 or more. 3 of those 4 horses won. Another Place Profits member mentioned that, if you bet on any top rated horse with a CPR of 2.0 or more in races where no other horse has a CPR of 2.0 or more, then you get a 100% strike rate. He must have spent hours going through the spreadsheet determining that. Andy C. If you're ever in my part of back of beyond Brittany, I'll buy you a beer (or two!) Personally, I think that Confidence (the percentage difference between the CPR of the top rated horse and that of the second rated horse) is going to play a major part - that's what I'll be working on today. I have looked at the performance of the top rated horse dependent on its CPR.

Morning News

Good morning... It is nice to have some results to waffle about. We got 3 top rated winners from yesterday's 10 races at Sha Tin. The prices weren't good but we did get the forecast in Race 7 (the 9:10 race) - the Quinella (forecast) paid 10.50. One of the members mentioned that he only bet on the 4 races yesterday where the CPR (Compass Rating) was 2.0 or greater... 3 of those 4 top rated horses won. A 75% strike rate isn't such a bad start for a strategy. That might be an angle to look at and I'll do some analysis to find the optimal CPR to use. Another member noticed that certain jockeys were more successful than others. It seems that, in Hong Kong, there are some superstar jockeys; they get the best rides. Thus you put a talented jockey on a very good horse and, of course, they're going to win. Obviously, the local Chinese know this and, thus, prices will be low. I'll be spending this week adding content to CompassRatings.com and trying to come up with strategies and angles to help us benefit from the ratings. - I'll update you, every morning, with links to the additions. I should be able to get Wednesday's ratings out this afternoon or, tomorrow morning at the latest. If you have any suggestions or requests for Compass Ratings, please let me know. I imagine that, once GB and Irish racing comes back, we might still end up using Hong Kong racing twice a week as another source of potential income - think of it as high quality flat turf racing even if its happening 8,000 miles away.

Morning News

Good morning... Thank you for your feedback on yesterday's Morning News. Most of it, I have to say... Was about the Genie joke rather than horse racing stuff. Based upon the horse racing stuff that was discussed, I shall be adding a confidence column to the Compass Ratings PDFs - that sort of makes sense to me and I can't, for the life of me, think why I didn't do that in the first place. After a very busy week, today is a day off for me. I'm not sure what I'll be getting up to (under the current circumstances) but I do have a horrible feeling that... Housework beckons!

Morning News

Good morning... I've literally been up nearly all night getting Compass Ratings finished. I haven't got round to writing the code to send out the ratings yet so I have attached them here. I have left the ratings as simple as possible but, if I'm missing any vital data that you'd like to see... Let me know. There's plenty of space for more columns. I have done some historical analysis of all 1838 races from the 1st of January 2018 up until (and including) last Wednesday's meeting at Happy Valley. The details are shown below. Click on the image to see it full size. As you can see... The ratings appear to be blindly profitable for the top rated horse. I've manually audited the first 3 months and it all looks good.

Morning News

Good morning... Following yesterday's Morning News I've received a lot of feedback from you. Most of you seem to be interested in the Race Course Trends Analysis - available online for Focus Ratings members and displayed the every day's meetings as a PDF to be sent out with the ratings. Thus, once Compass Ratings is out of the way, that is what I'll start concentrating on. I've also had a number of conversations with an Australian friend and am starting to find a suitable data source for Australian ratings. These will be primarily for the Australian market but I'm sure that you won't mind additional ratings whilst GB and Irish racing is at a halt. And, on a totally non horse racing note... Yesterday, in my little village in rural Brittany, the Thursday morning market was held but it was only about a quarter of the normal size. And, the Gendarmes were there to ensure that people kept their distance from each other. After the market one poor lad was stopped by the Gendarmes and found not to have his attestation (the form we have to download from the government website, print out and sign if we wish to go out.) Click on the images if you want to see them full size.

Morning News

Good morning... I'd like to apologise for yesterday's slight lack of a Morning News... I had good intentions and made an early start but I had to go back to bed at about 4am; I've been burning the candle a little bit, trying to get Compass Ratings finished. Compass Ratings uses the same magic formula that I created for AdvanceRatings.com If all goes well, I should have the last code module finished, installed and tested by about 2pm this afternoon. Once that is done I will be able to produce ratings for the two meetings a week that are held at Sha Tin and Happy Valley.

What does this mean for you?

Well, as soon as I've got the website tidied up I will create free memberships for each and every Focus Ratings member.

Morning News

Good morning... An early Morning News today as I've been up since midnight working on getting the automation of CompassRatings.com (Hong Kong ratings based upon the magic formula from AdvanceRatings.com) finished. Up until now I have been manually producing these ratings for my own testing purposes only. However, if I continue to do that, and share those ratings with you (or others), then I'll be committing to spending about 12 hours a week doing grunt work. Far better that I automate the process so that it'll only take up about 30 minutes a week of my time. There were no winners yesterday but we got a reverse forecast and two combination trifectas which all paid pretty well; I show the details below. I've also done some analysis of our historical results for Clonmel; you'll need to scroll down to see that. For more detail of yesterday's results, here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Morning News

Good morning... 2 winners from 6 races (for our top rated horse) yesterday... Is a pretty decent result. Weirdly, had you blindly backed every top three rated horse (not something that I would advise doing), you would have made a small profit to ISP. There were 3 non-handicap races yesterday; our two winners came from those races, giving us a 66.66% strike rate for the non-handicap races and a profit of 47.33% (to ISP) on your stakes for those races. I've done some analysis on our historical performance at Naas. You'll need to scroll down to view it. For more detail on yesterday's results, here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results Anyway, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....