Morning News – 26/02/2021

Good morning... An early start for me today as... I'm trying to catch up on all the work I need to do. I'm going to pick off the easy jobs first; Starting with finishing my work on trying to see if it is worth coming up with an Early Bird Ratings version of R8. So far it is looking good but more analysis is required.

Morning News – 25/02/2021

Good morning... Yesterday I wrote some code... That will allow me, today, To analyse what happens if a horse is top rated on EarlyBird Ratings and also, On Advance Ratings. A sort of R8 but for the earlybird preview ratings. Now, what I am hoping is that will not only give me a sub set of dramatically more accurate ratings but also... Allow us to identify those horses which go on to win at the high prices that Diamonds and Gold occasionally gets.

Morning News – 24/02/2021

Good morning... Yesterday was a less good day for the new R8 ratings than I have been seeing. Of the 8 R8 rated races, Our top rated horse was a non-runner in one of them. Of the remaining 7 races only two of them were won by the top rated horse. That equates to a strike rate of 28.5% Historically, we have been seeing a strike rate of just over 32%. Let's see what today brings us. On another, slightly related, note... I realised yesterday that, I can actually compute Advance Ratings the afternoon of the day before the race. If I were to that, I would get identical numbers and ratings to those produced first thing in the morning of race day. Thus I could create a sort of R8 for Early Bird Ratings the evening before race day. I know that I've got plenty of other things to get on with but... This might be of real value both to members of EarlyBird Ratings and also to members of Focus Ratings who get the early preview ratings.

Morning News – 23/02/2021

Good morning... I sort of managed to oversleep this morning which... Means that I am running behind. Once I have finished my morning work I'll get straight onto working on R8 again. Since Investment Betting has moved from the old system to the new, R8 based system, we have had 5 selections; Two were non-runners, one came second and the other two won. I will be sending out the Compass Ratings for tomorrow's meeting at Happy Valley later on this morning.

Morning News – 22/02/2021

Good morning... Oh, the ups and downs of life... Saturday was one of the worst Saturdays (for all services) that I can remember; Sunday was pretty great all round. Focus Ratings had a 43% strike rate (for the top rated horse), Diamonds and Gold made about 11 points profit in a day, Place Profits made the best part of a point profit (which is a big result if you are place betting.) This week I am planning to publish a post (with supporting spreadsheets( to explain how best to benefit from R8. I'll also try to finish my guide to Hong Kong racing; it's taking longer than I thought it would.

Morning News – 19/02/2021

Good morning... As I mentioned yesterday... I will be spending a large part of the weekend writing down everything I know (which I admit isn't an awful lot) about Hong Kong horse racing. As a result, it's unlikely that there will be a Morning News either tomorrow or Sunday. I have found 3 races on Saturday that I can rate for Spotlight ratings. I will be sending out the ratings for those 3 races at Caulfield (AU) later on this morning. Please bear in mind that Australia is 12 hours ahead of us so you'll need to get your bets on today. I don't want to mention bad knee, so I won't. The image below sort of sums it up.

Morning News – 18/02/2021

Good morning... I'm not going to mention my painful knee (as a result of slipping on the ice last Friday)... Apart from mentioning that one unfortunate side affect seems to be, Instant onset Tourettes Syndrome. I seem to have become really quite potty mouthed, Generally every time I get up or sit down, Or walk, even. I did get some work done yesterday and hope to be able to publish the first system based upon R8 tomorrow. This will be a backing system and I will switch the Portfolio bets back on to display it every morning to those who want those selections. After a period of testing, it may become the basis for the Investment Betting selections as well. Over the weekend there will be no Morning News emails; I shall be trying to write down everything that I know about Hong Kong horse racing (and how to best profit from Compass Ratings.) I will publish this as an eBook as I know that many of you are interested.

Morning News – 17/02/2021

Good morning... Whilst the bruise below my left knee has now shrunk from the size of Belgium to... Just a little bump, The pain hasn't gone away and, as a result, I didn't get much work done yesterday. It's just really uncomfortable sitting down. That means that I am slightly behind on replying to emails. If you are waiting for a reply to an email that you sent to me, I'll be getting back to you later on this morning, once the ratings and everything else has gone out. For those of you who have asked to be added to the Investment Betting list, you have been added; I just haven't got back to you to let you know. The system that I mentioned yesterday (which will become part of our R8 portfolio and also, potentially, a replacement for the current Investment Betting selections) is going to be re-tested at different confidence levels today. As it stands, it's almost too good to be true - it just shows how important R8 is. The best description that I can come up with, for explaining R8 is this. Think of that old TV series, Top Gear. Every week the 3 presenters would have to choose something like... A convertible with a £2,000 budget. Now, Jeremy Clarkson would choose a Renault Clio convertible, the little guy would choose a Talbot Horizon convertible and the aging hippie would choose a MG Midget. The MG Midget would blow up before the challenge had even began, The Talbot Horizon would break down after about 10 seconds and... The Clio would win the challenge, But then, Jeremy Clarkson used to always those challenges, didn't he. The only time that I can ever remember them agreeing on the same car was when they talking about practical, affordable slightly sporting hatchbacks and then, they all agreed on the Ford Focus ST2. Now, in horse racing terms, if two totally different ratings agencies agree on the same top rated horse, that's a bit like the 3 guys on the old Top Gear agreeing on the same car. It just works.

Morning News – 16/02/2021

Good morning... Well, the bruise the size of Belgium... As a result of slipping on the ice on Friday, Has shrunk to the size of Basingstoke. However, it is still very painful and sitting at my desk seems to make it worse. However, I have come up with a nice win backing system based on R8. Currently it gives two selections a day, a 46% strike rate and a 15% POI to ISP. I have a bit more work to do on it but it does look like a keeper. Today is the last day that I will be sending Investment Betting selections out to all members. From tomorrow, if you want them, you'll need to let me know so that I can add you to the list. I do have to say that the system behind Investment Betting will change in the near future; almost certainly to the one I described above.

Morning News – 15/02/2021

Good morning... Not a happy bunny at the moment... We had a lot of snow last week. However, Thursday was warm and that snow started to melt. Thursday night was well be low zero and that melted snow froze. I woke up on Friday morning to a see of ice in the market square. I thought to myself... "No going out for me today; only a complete muppet would risk life or limb out there." Just after lunch I became a complete muppet. I managed the 30 yards to the village shop and, 28 yards of the route back. Then I hit a patch of ice and went arse over tit. I now have a bruise the size of Belgium just below my left knee. As a result, I am living on a diet of Paracetemol and Ibuprophen. And, no matter, how I sit, my knee starts throbbing and aching. However, I did manage to get some work done and have come up with a rather nice win bet system based upon R8. Over the last 5 years of data it shows about 1 bet a day, a 44.74% strike rate and an 18.38% profit on stakes to ISP. I shall be doing some more work on that today. Compass Ratings We had a good day at Sha Tin yesterday. There were 11 races but, in 3 of them, our top rated horse was a non-runner. From the remaining 8 races, 2 were won by our top rated horse. 11.60 points were returned to the 8 points staked. Investment Betting From Wednesday, I will no longer be sending out the Investment Betting selections to all Focus Ratings members. If you still wish to receive the Investment Betting selections, just let me know and I'll put you on the list. I do have to say that the selection process will be changing from the current R6 Plus based system to the new R8 based system that I mentioned above. Diamonds and Gold The Early Bird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections are continuing their incredible good run. Racing-Index.com shows a 46.0% strike rate and a 126.7% profit on stakes (to BSP, assuming a 2% commission.) However, there was one day when we had 2 high priced winners and, of course, that was a day when I forgot to proof the selections. Thus, the real profits on stakes is far higher.