Focus Ratings is a Uk and Irish Horse Racing ratings service designed to aid you and help you narrow the field so that you can concentrate on the real contenders. Our completely computerised analysis system selects the top three rated horses from each race and sends out the ratings every day at 10:00 a.m.  Wonderful results and an excellent strike rate.  Use Focus Ratings to win more money and make more profits from British and Irish Horse Racing.  The only horse racing system you'll ever need.

Morning News – 03/03/2021

6620418Good morning...


Today's Morning News is going to be a biggie!

Now, if I was Blackadder,

I would say something horrendously politically incorrect such as...

blackadder01"It's always a biggie, my Queen but,

When your magnificent and, may I say, beautifully lovely, Royal Highness walks into the room,

It gets even bigger."

Luckily, I'm not Blackadder.

I'd be arrested if I were!

Starting off...

Whilst working on R8 strategies, yesterday,

I came across something that I've used before.

Now, I don't know what this is called.

It must have a name; if anything, I'd call it Reverse Dutching but that's probably not the right name for it.

The concept,

Which was actually the concept of my first ever solo horse racing service (Investment Betting; launched in May of 2012) which was to back top rated horses (based upon R4 which, 9 months later, became the fundamental, and still used today, basis for Focus Ratings.)

When you were certain that the top rated horse was going to win,

Due to confidence level or market prices,

You would back it and then lay the second rated horse.

Imagine that Kauto Star (or Hurricane Fly) is the odds on top rated horse and Denis the Three Legged Donkey is the second rated horse.

You know that the top rated horse is going to win and so you back it.

You also win (from the lay bet on the second rated horse) when the sad second rated horse doesn't win.

Two bites at the same cherry.

You would make far more money from the successful lays but, to advised stakes (I used to calculate the advised stake breakdown to a £10 total stake - it might be £8 for the back portion of the bet and £2 for the lay portion of the bet but it would vary according to the probability and risk factor for each bet) it was incredibly profitable.

I'm sure that I'm not the first person to come up with this strategy but, if it has a name, I'd dearly love to know what that name is.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure that this strategy will be part of the Portfolio Bets that Focus Ratings members can get for free; once I switch that service back on.

Moving on....

Compass Ratings...

I sent out the Compass Ratings email yesterday (with the links to today's meeting at Happy Valley) to the Compass Ratings members (free, upon request, to all Focus Ratings, Early Bird Ratings and Place Profits members)

This is the text...

You'll notice that there are now two sets of ratings.

Those that I describe as Compass Ratings are the original ones.

However, I have tried to improve those ratings by adding in Jockey Win Strike Rate.

Basically, I compute each jockey's (there are only about 30 of them) win strike rate over their last 500 races (that might go up to 1,000 races as most jockeys get between 12 and 18 races a week.)

I then create a multiplier which multiplies the normal ratings by the jockey's win strike rate.

For example...

Zac Purton has a current win strike rate of 18.80%

That is equal to 0.188 in decimal terms.

I add 1 to that and that becomes the multiplier.

Take the 2nd race (the 11:15am)...

Zac Purton's ride, Owners Star has a CPR (Compass Rating) of 0.98 - this is based purely on the horse's past performance.

In the new ratings (the Plus ratings), Owner's Star has a CPR+ (the new rating) of 1.17 which is the original rating of 0.98 multiplied by the jockey's win strike rate multiplier of 1.188

I would suggest that you just watch these new ratings for a while but, based on my investigations (which weren't as mathematically rigid as I would have liked) they certainly do seem to improve the accuracy of the ratings.

It also removes the situation where the top rated horse can be a non-runner and, yet, still be shown on the ratings.

If you look at the 13:45 race, with the normal ratings, Zac Purton's ride was originally the 3rd rated horse but the top rated is going to be a non-runner (too many horses, not enough jockeys.)

In the Plus ratings, the non-runner disappears and Wealthy Delight (Zac Purton's ride) gets promoted to the top rated horse.

I hope that this makes sense to you; it's a bit like R8 for Focus Ratings. We are combining two types of ratings to get a better one (the jockey win strike rate is a sort of rating in itself.)

If we can improve profitability in the same way that R8 has done for Focus Ratings then I'll be a very happy bunny indeed.😁

Adding in the jockey win strike rate is more important at Happy Valley than it is at Sha Tin as Happy Valley has pronounced stall bias over some distances.

A good jockey (one with a good win strike rate) can often overcome the stall bias whereas a weaker jockey can't.

Those stalls that are harder to start from are under bet by the Chinese and, thus, tend to offer better prices.

By 14:55 this afternoon, I'll know if it's a winning strategy or not.

If you want to check it out,

The links are available here...

Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings - Top 3 rated - Top 3 Rated - 3rd March 2021

Compass Ratings - All runners - All Runners - 3rd March 2021

Compass Ratings Plus

Compass Ratings - Top 3 rated - Top 3 Rated - 3rd March 2021

Compass Ratings - All runners - All Runners - 3rd March 2021

Early Bird Ratings

By 5pm today...

I hope to be able to see if I can produce Early Bird Ratings Plus (a combination of Early Bird Ratings and the following day's, pre-compiled, Advance Ratings) ratings and....

The accompanying Platinum selections (to support and, potentially, replace) our existing Diamonds and Gold selections.

I guess that I'll either be giving you good news or bad news at about this time tomorrow.

Task List...

In order to be honest and truly transparent with you...

I will now be publishing my task list on the Morning News.

You will be able to see what I am working on and, more importantly, what progress I am making.

Here are the current tasks...

T01). Work out a number of strategies to utilise R8 and provide Focus Rating members free Portfolio Betting selections across a number of different betting strategies (win backing, place backing, dutching, laying and, the other thing that I described that I don't know what it is called) on a daily basis.

T02). Produce Early Bird Plus Ratings by compiling the Advance Ratings in the afternoon of the day before race day and then combining them with Early Bird Ratings in the evening of the day befoe race day in order to produce a more accurate ratings set and also to produce Platinum selections (based upon those new ratings) to accompany and, ultimately, potentially replace the current Diamonds and Gold selections.

T03). For Compass Ratings, display, on screen and via a email PDF, the twice weekly trainer/jockey win/place strike rates.

T04). For Compass Ratings, complete the eBook that explains all the weird and wonderful things that I have learned about Hong Kong Horse racing.

T05). Complete - a free site where you can privately log your bets and get Strike Rate, POI (to ISP and BSP) data and losing run analysis on those bets.

T06). Re-launch - very good good things are happening there as we speak and it is becoming a vital (and also, very profitable) tool for those who like to think about their betting.

I'm trying to knock off the easy/quick jobs first in order to reduce the size of the list; the size of the list scares me sometimes and, believe me, I have twice as many jobs on the Admin/BAU (Business As Usual - things like automated scripts, backups and server log file analysis - stuff that all website owners have to do) task list to get through as well.

Focus Ratings


Yesterday's Results

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.09%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 32%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 22.22% from all 27 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 75.49 units returned to 72 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 4.85%

Top Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the top rated horses from 23 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21.87 units returned to 23 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -4.91%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the second rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 39.62 units returned to 25 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 58.48%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the third rated horses from 24 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 14 units returned to 24 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -41.67%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 7 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 3 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 42.86%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 7.87 units returned to 7 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 12.43%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 7 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 7 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 100%

Investment Betting

There was one Investment Betting selection (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Catterick - 13:30 - Chuvelo - 3rd


EarlyBird Ratings

There were two Diamonds and Gold selections yesterday...

Catterick - 12:30 - Real Stone - F

Gowran Park - 15:50 - Daly Tiger - NR

Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race. members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here...


Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meetings a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

There is a meeting at Happy Valley today.

I sent out the ratings for that meeting yesterday.

If you are not a Compass Ratings member (it's free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Rating and Place Profits members - you just have to ask to be added to the list) but want to try it out, the links to today's ratings are above, at the top of this page/email.

Just be aware that, even though it's an evening meeting, because Hong King is 8 hours ahead of us, the first race runs at 10:45am GB/IRE time.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.


Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings had an good day yesterday...

12.30 - Catterick - Omar Maretti - 1st @ 1.66 ISP (1.91 BSP)

1.00 - Catterick - West To The Bridge - PU

3.30 - Catterick - Mr Chua - 1st @ 2.50 ISP (2.74)

4.10 - Leicester - I'm Wiser Now - 2nd


Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.


Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

16th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 1 (5 races rated.)

17th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 2 (5 races rated.)

18th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 3 (4 races rated.)

19th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 4 (5 races rated.)

27th March 2021 – Doncaster – 15:10 – Unibet Lincoln – Class 2

New - 10th April – 2021 – Aintree – 17:15 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase – Class 1

22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1

23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

Place Profits

Selections - New System

There are no selections today.

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Leicester - 14:40 - Jack Valentine - 2nd @ 1.47
Leicester - 15:10 - Destin Dajonc - 3rd

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Leicester - 15:10 - Destin Dajonc - 3rd

Original System (200% Confidence.)

There are no selections today.

I have updated the results and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here...


Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

A number of systems are combined to create system selections.


Click on the image to see it full size.

Something to make you smile...

The Collar...

A little boy got on the bus, sat next to a man reading a book, and noticed he had his collar on backwards.

The little boy asked why he wore his collar that way. The man, who was a priest, said, " I am a Father."

The little boy replied, "My Daddy doesn't wear his collar like that."

The priest looked up from his book and answered, "I am the Father of many."

The boy said, "My Dad has 4 boys, 4 girls and two grandchildren and he doesn't wear his collar that way."

The priest, getting impatient, said, "I am the Father of hundreds" and went back to reading his book.

The little boy sat quietly thinking for a while, then leaned over and said,"Maybe you should wear your pants backwards instead of your collar."








Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards


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