Morning News – 04/03/2021

Good morning...

Yesterday was another productive day all round...

I guess that it's best to start with a success;

Compass Ratings

The new Compass Ratings Plus (CPR+) showed its value by picking up one more top rated winner than the standard ratings (CPR.)

This makes a big difference to the overall profitability.

Now, over the next few days I shall be doing some analysis on the "weighting" factor of the Jockey Win Strike Rate.

So, at the moment, if a jockey has a win strike rate of 15%, that equates to 0.15 in decimal terms.

I add 1 to that to end up with 1.15

I then multiply the horses CPR by that to end up with CPR+.

That is a good start but, after analysis I will be able to come up with the optimum weighting factor.

It could be that, if a jockey has a win strike rate of 15%, I convert that to decimal (0.15) and then multiply that by 2 (or 1.68 or q.54, for example.)

I need to run a query (which is going to take hours and hours) to identify the weighting factor that, historically (over 3 years of data) proves optimal.

Early Bird Ratings

I managed to get the new Early Bird Ratings Plus working yesterday.

The whole process is automated and, from today, the new ratings (as well as the existing ratings will be sent out.)

The EBR+ ratings for today (generated yesterday evening) may be seen here... EarlyBird Plus Ratings - 04/03/2021

I've also...

At long last,

Automated the Diamonds and Gold selections process.

Normally I manually compute these selections.

Having it automated is far safer.

I seem to have become my Grandpa.

My Grandpa was a Cornish farmer. After he retired he would, often, after lunch, sit in his favourite easy chair and start to read. After a minute or so he would be snoring.

Granny would comment...

"Grandpa is reading with his eyes closed again."

I think it took him about 3 years to read Frenchman's Creek.

He could go a whole week without turning a single page.

Because I get up very early, I find that, these days, that often happens to me as well.

I must be getting old.

Having the Diamonds and Gold selections produced automatically means that, if that happens, you'll still get your selections on time.

I have also produced new system selections based upon Early Bird Plus Ratings; these are called Platinum selections.

The Diamonds and Gold (and Platinum) for today (generated yesterday evening) may be seen here... EarlyBird Selections - 04/03/2021

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Task List...

In order to be honest and truly transparent with you...

I will now be publishing my task list on the Morning News.

You will be able to see what I am working on and, more importantly, what progress I am making.

Here are the current tasks...

T01). Work out a number of strategies to utilise R8 and provide Focus Rating members free Portfolio Betting selections across a number of different betting strategies (win backing, place backing, dutching, laying and, the other thing that I described that I don't know what it is called) on a daily basis.

T02). Produce Early Bird Plus Ratings by compiling the Advance Ratings in the afternoon of the day before race day and then combining them with Early Bird Ratings in the evening of the day befoe race day in order to produce a more accurate ratings set and also to produce Platinum selections (based upon those new ratings) to accompany and, ultimately, potentially replace the current Diamonds and Gold selections.

Update... - The Early Bird Plus ratings are now automatically produced.

T03). For Compass Ratings, display, on screen and via a email PDF, the twice weekly trainer/jockey win/place strike rates.

T04). For Compass Ratings, complete the eBook that explains all the weird and wonderful things that I have learned about Hong Kong Horse racing.

T05). Complete PaperTradeIt.com - a free site where you can privately log your bets and get Strike Rate, POI (to ISP and BSP) data and losing run analysis on those bets.

T06). Re-launch Intelligent-Betting.com - very good good things are happening there as we speak and it is becoming a vital (and also, very profitable) tool for those who like to think about their betting.

I'm trying to knock off the easy/quick jobs first in order to reduce the size of the list; the size of the list scares me sometimes and, believe me, I have twice as many jobs on the Admin/BAU (Business As Usual - things like automated scripts, backups and server log file analysis - stuff that all website owners have to do) task list to get through as well.

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Focus Ratings

Yesterday's Results

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.93%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.93%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.81% from all 31 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 74.16 units returned to 78 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -4.92%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 27 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 33.84 units returned to 27 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 25.33%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the second rated horses from 26 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.32 units returned to 26 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -6.46%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 16 units returned to 25 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -36%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 10 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 4 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 40%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.14 units returned to 10 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 11.4%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 10 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 9 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 90%

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Investment Betting

There were two Investment Betting selections (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Musselburgh - 16:35 - Captain Bucks - 1st @ 1.91 ISP (2.12 BSP)

Kempton - 18:50 - Oo De Lally - 3rd

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EarlyBird Ratings

There were two Diamonds and Gold selections yesterday...

Wincanton - 3:30 - Balko Saint - 1st @ 2.20 ISP (2.58 BSP)

Musselburgh - 15:35 - Alcala - 1st @ 1.40 ISP (1.46 BSP)

Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html

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Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meetings a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

There is a meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday.

I will be compiling the ratings for that meeting tomorrow.

If you are not a Compass Ratings member (it's free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Rating and Place Profits members - you just have to ask to be added to the list) but want to try it out, the links to today's ratings are above, at the top of this page/email.

Just be aware that, even though it's an evening meeting, because Hong King is 8 hours ahead of us, the first race runs at 10:45am GB/IRE time.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings had an below par day yesterday...

12.30 - Wincanton - Mocacreme Has - 2nd

1.30 - Wincanton - Balko Saint - 1st @ 2.20 ISP (2.58 BSP)

2.15 - Lingfield - Momtalik - 11th

5.15 - Kempton - Krazy Paving - 8th

5.25 - Lingfield - Charles Le Brun - 4th

5.45 - Kempton - Kyllukey - 11th

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Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

16th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 1 (5 races rated.)

17th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 2 (5 races rated.)

18th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 3 (4 races rated.)

19th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 4 (5 races rated.)

27th March 2021 – Doncaster – 15:10 – Unibet Lincoln – Class 2

New - 10th April – 2021 – Aintree – 17:15 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase – Class 1

22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1

23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Place Profits

Selections - New System

Kempton - 19:20 - Rovaniemi - 7th
Musselburgh - 16:35 - Captain Bucks - 1st @ 1.24
Kempton - 18:50 - Oo De Lally - 3rd

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

There are no selections today.

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

There are no selections today.

Original System (200% Confidence.)

There are no selections today.

I have updated the results and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

A number of systems are combined to create system selections.

Click on the image to see it full size.

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Something to make you smile...

Sleeping Beauty, Tom Thumb, and Quasimodo...

Sleeping Beauty, Tom Thumb, and Quasimodo were all talking one day.

Sleeping Beauty said, "I believe myself to be the most beautiful girl in the world."

Tom Thumb said, "I must be the smallest person in the world."

Quasimodo said, "I absolutely have to be the most disgusting person in the world."

So they all decided to go to the Guinness Book of World Records to have their claims verified.

Sleeping Beauty went in first and came out looking deliriously happy. "It's official, I AM the most beautiful girl in the world."

Tom Thumb went next and emerged triumphant, "I am now officially the smallest person in the world."

Sometime later, Quasimodo comes out looking utterly confused and says."Who the hell is Rosie O'Donnell ?

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards