Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday we had a problem with the first race of the day.

The data was garbage.

This was a speed issue; I've tidied up my server so that it runs faster but, it now seems to be running too fast (which, in a way, is a nice problem to have) and is running script 2 before script 1 has finished.

This is a problem if script 2 needs the data from script 1.

Anyway, I need to spend more time just doing routine maintenance on the server rather than faffing around with Speed Ratings and things like that.

It was a shame as our third rated horse in that race was was actually Bishop Wulstan who won at 17.0 ISP (22.59 BSP) but I can't claim it as a winner due to the problem.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.24%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 99.99 units returned to 100 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 99.99%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 17.84 units returned to 33 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 54.06%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.65 units returned to 34 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, 72.5%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 57.5 units returned to 33 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 174.24%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Doncaster 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £6.22

Wolverhampton (AW) 20:45:00 - The CSF paid £3.50

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Wolverhampton (AW) 17:45:00 - The CSF paid £6.39

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Doncaster 15:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £10.30

Reverse Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 reverse tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Doncaster 14:40:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £45.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 18:15:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £40.40

Winners

From the 34 rated races there were 21 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Doncaster	14:10	Old Pride (3)	11.00	13.0
Lingfield (AW)	14:20	Birkdale Boy (1)	7.00	7.17
Newbury	16:40	Krackatoa King (2)	9.00	12.11
Dundalk (AW)	19:05	Tomorrow Morning (5)	13.00	17.0

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. -
where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Dundalk (AW) - 20:35:00 - Holy Water (2)

Races (over last year): 40 Wins: 24 Strike Rate: 60.00% ROI: 163.20% AV SP: 2.72

Holy Water came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Live Ratings

There were no non-runners yesterday; thus, the Live Ratings had no work to do.

Speed Ratings

Now, I do have to say that I still firmly believe in the way that I have been creating ratings for tha last 2 years.

In other words, ratings based upon form and bayesian analysis.

However, the Speed Ratings give another perspective which, for some races, needs to be taken into account.

Rather than baffle you all with loads of numbers, I ought to say that I'll be happy if I can come up with a new rating, R5, which will be a mathematically logical combination of the two,

Comments...

Lingfield - 17:05 - Our top rated horse (as far as R4 is concerned) came nowhere. Our top rated horse on the new All Weather Speed Ratings was Perfect Mission who was our seventh rated horse on R4.

Perfect Mission won at 17.0 ISP (18.19 BSP.)

Wolverhampton - 17:15 - Our top rated horse on the new All Weather Speed Ratings was Sonnetation who was our third rated horse on R4.

Sonnetation came second. Betfair paid 3.24 for the place.

Dundalk - 19:05 - Our top rated horse on the new All Weather Speed Ratings was Clutchinatstraws who was our second rated horse on R4.

Clutchinatstraws came second. Betfair paid 1.6 for the place.

Dundalk - 19:35 - Our top rated horse on the new All Weather Speed Ratings was Ballard Dancer who was our fifth rated horse on R4.

Ballard Dancer came third. Betfair paid 2.42 for the place.

Wolverhampton - 19:45 - Our top rated horse on the new All Weather Speed Ratings was King's Bayonet who was our fourth rated horse on R4.

King's Bayonet came second. Betfair paid 3.66 for the place.

Dundalk - 20:35 - Our top rated horse on the new All Weather Speed Ratings was Loyalty Card who was our fourth rated horse on R4.

Loyalty Card won at 34.0 ISP (41.5 BSP.)

Today

Today's early test ratings show 33 rated races from five meetings.

I'm going to be manually walking the ratings through this morning which means that they might be 10 minutes or so later than normal.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards