Morning News

Good morning...

A pretty average day's racing with nothing exceptional to talk about.

I was monitoring the Speed Ratings but I've realised that they are not going to fully do their job until I've fully populated the database table with all race results.

Whilst developing the Speed Ratings I had to use the same data set for reasons of consistency and that data set is now 3 months out of date.

It's the results from those missing 3 months which probably have the most effect on the current ratings and so I expect an improvement once they have been added today.

Still, yesterday's Speed Ratings did thrown up some interesting points.

I'll get to that in a minute, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.53%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 68.44 units returned to 99 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 69.13%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 24.31 units returned to 34 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 71.5%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22.13 units returned to 31 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, 71.39%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22 units returned to 34 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 64.71%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Kelso 13:55:00 - The CSF paid £2.63

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Doncaster 14:00:00 - The CSF paid £9.30

Kelso 15:00:00 - The CSF paid £13.00

Lingfield (AW) 17:15:00 - The CSF paid £7.56

Kelso 17:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.47

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Reverse Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 reverse tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 13:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £32.10

Doncaster 14:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £43.20

Kelso 15:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £13:00

Leopardstown 15:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £10.80

Winners

From the 34 rated races there were 18 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Newbury	13:45	Leave It Be (12)	9.00	11.42
Newbury	14:15	Soll (4)	6.50	6.34
Lingfield (AW)	14:20	Blackthorn Stick (4)	5.50	5.5

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = High priced Beaten Favs on the Flat - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse was a Beaten Favourite and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 7.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Newbury - 17:05:00 - Sand Blast (9)

Races (over last year): 13 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 30.77% ROI: 259.70% AV SP: 8.44

Sand Blast came second.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Live Ratings

The were three non-runners, from the top three rated horses, yesterday.

Doncaster 13:25 - Our second rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted our third rated horse and brought in Midnight Monty as the new third rated horse.

Midnight Monty obviously didn't realise the honour that this bestows and wandered in some 50 lengths behind the winner (who happened to be our top rated horse.)

Leopardstown 14:05 - Our second rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted our third rated horse and brought in Western Boy as the new third rated horse.

Western Boy came third; Betfair paid 1.41 for the place.

Lingfield 16:40 - Our second rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted our third rated horse and brought in Precision Five as the new third rated horse.

Precision Five came second and gave us a Reverse Trifecta which paid £14.70

Rather than my doing screenshots, if you want to see the last iteration of the Live Ratings, they will be available at Live Ratings until about 9:30am when they get wiped and replaced by today's ratings.

Speed Ratings

The only AW meeting yesterday was at Lingfield.

So, from 7 races, what can I say?

Yesterday's Speed Ratings can bee seen here... Speed Ratings - 28th February 2015

Lingfield 13:50 - Our third rated horse (on R4), No Delusion, was our top rated horse on AW Speed Ratings.

No Delusion won at 3.0 ISP (3.4 BSP.)

Lingfield 14:20 - Our seventh rated horse (on R4), Silent Pursuit, was our top rated horse on AW Speed Ratings.

Silent Pursuit came third. Betfair paid 2.02 for the place.

Lingfield 17:15 - Our second rated horse (on R4), Mossogo, was our top rated horse on AW Speed Ratings.

Mossogo won at 3.5 ISP (3.9 BSP.)

Comments...

Well, from 7 AW races I have managed to say something positive about three of them.

And that's pretty much what I'd expect bearing in mind that I've not currently using any data from the last three months. A horse could have run 2 races during that period.

After I import the missing data I'd expect to able to report far better results.

However, I can say that, yesterday, every time that a top rated horse (as far as the Speed Ratings are concerned) was top three rated (under our current ratings),

Twice, in other words...

That horse won.

Next week I shall be producing a spreadsheet which will analyse historical results over the last 2 years.

I'll be looking to see if there are (as I've just suggested), any relationship between the results when the top rated horse on Speed Ratings is top three rated under our current ratings.

I'll also be interested to see how the results vary according to distance and race type.

Another thing that has just caught my eye is that, in the 13:50 at Lingfield, No Delusion was the only horse to have a Speed Rating of less than that of the Race Type. Now, that's another aspect to look at.

The same was true in the 16:40 at Lingfield when Precision Five came third.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 20 rated races from three meetings.

There is no AW today, and thus, no Speed Ratings.

Which means less work for me.

In my dreams!

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards