Morning News

Good morning...

Well, it seems that we had some sort of a slightly wonderful day yesterday.

I didn't notice as I was busy putting the final touches to the Speed Ratings but,

The numbers certainly look good.

You could have blindly backed every top rated horse yesterday and made a profit.

In fact, you could have blindly backed every top three rated horse and made a profit!

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 34.38%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 96.44 units returned to 93 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 3.7%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 35.54 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 11.06%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 37.4 units returned to 32 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, 16.88%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.5 units returned to 29 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, -18.97%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Sandown 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £2.75

Wolverhampton (AW) 17:45:00 - The CSF paid £10.57

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Ayr 14:00:00 - The CSF paid £3.28

Dundalk (AW) 18:35:00 - The CSF paid £11.27

Wolverhampton (AW) 19:45:00 - The CSF paid £7.09

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Leicester 16:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.70

Dundalk (AW) 18:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £21.40

Winners

From the 33 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Ayr	15:05	Plus Jamais (3)	5.50	5.82
Dundalk (AW)	17:35	Shinyhappyjohn (9)	12.00	14.0
Dundalk (AW)	18:35	Petit Adagio (11)	6.00	6.8
Dundalk (AW)	19:05	Paene Magnus (4)	7.00	9.0
Dundalk (AW)	21:05	Shalaman (4)	11.00	15.33

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Speed Ratings

I'm not going to waffle on about the Speed Ratings today as I have made a slight change to the way that they are calculated.

This is to increase their accuracy over the shorter races.

I am hoping that I can implement the speed ratings today but...

I've only got two and a half hours until the ratings go out so it's going to be a push.

If I don't manage to get the final code written for today, then I'm pretty sure that I'll be able to start publishing the speed ratings tomorrow or Monday.

It's important that I get them right and I'd rather miss my self imposed deadline by a day or two than give you something that isn't quite finished.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 34 rated races from 5 meetings.

And, if you'll excuse me...

I've got to rush and try and get the Speed Ratings finished.

Once again, if I don't get them finished today then they won't be finished today and, to be honest, I feel far more comfortable putting off the launch until Monday as there's going to be a lot of explaining to do and you'll have a lots of questions to ask and...

After 4 month's hard work, what does another couple of days matter?

Anyway, with days like yesterday (and the results from the Form based ratings), the Speed Ratings will just be a bonus.

Oh, one last thing...

One thing that I have learned over the last 4 months, whilst working on the Speed Ratings, is that when I created our current ratings (R4) there were things that I missed out.

There are things that I can improve.

So, once I've finished the speed ratings please be aware that I'll probably start waffling on about some improvements that I've been thinking about.

I'll be calling those R5.

After all, a 34.38% strike rate for the top rated horse isn't really good enough, is it?

We should be aiming for more.

Anyway, more of that in the next few weeks and months.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards