Morning News

Good Morning

Just a quick morning news from me today as...

Today is supposed to be my day off.

And so, I'll probably be spending the afternoon in my local bar...

Sampling some Bière de Noël (a sort of strong dark ale, sometimes spiced or flavoured, brewed in October for consumption this time of the year.)

Whilst pretending to work on Dutching statistics.

Come and join me for one if you're in my part of town (North West France.)

Yesterday's Results

Another decent day, as you can see from the Results.

A strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 28.95% is pretty nice.

Forecasts

There was one forecast yesterday.

Lingfield 15:10 - The CSF paid £11.98

Tricast

There was one tricast yesterday.

Huntingdon 14:50 - The Tricast paid £38.79

Winners

From the 38 rated races there were 11 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - Four of these were at reasonable prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Gowran Park	12:30	Prussian Eagle	9.0	10.0
Haydock	12:45	Gas Line Boy	5.5	6.77
Haydock	15:35	Accordong to Trev	11.0	15.77
Wolverhampton	21:15	Weel Owd Mon	6.5	8.03

Comments...

In the 12:10 at Haydock, our top rated horse was a non-runner. The Live ratings upgraded the second rated horse which went onto win.

By the way, I've started populating the Live Results table. The actual update didn't quite work but I'll fix that before the ratings go out and then I'll have something to talk about tomorrow.

Obviously, we got the winner in the big race of the day (the Betfair Chase - Haydock 15:00) - it would have been rude not to have done so.

We also correctly predicted that Dynaste would come 3rd in that race.

The Portfolio

There was no Banker's Bet yesterday (nor any Chancer's Bet.)

I did, however, receive a comment of Thursday's Banker's Bet (from George): he said...

I'd add 2 more points to that discussion:-

a) There was a SIGNIFICANT price swing (down to 6/4jf) for the eventual winner - just at the off. (Ratings-based systems cannot take that into account)

b) Hidden Cyclone was upsides at the last fence. The race was still up for grabs.

So, in my book, absolutely nothing wrong about the Portfolio selection

Now, you have to know that the system that selects the Banker's Bet and the Chancer's Bet each morning is self-learning.

So, because of the loss on Thursday, the system that produced Thursday's selection probably won't get the chance to produce another selection until it has produced enough winners to justify its place.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Dutching

I have been doing more analysis of the Results spreadsheet.

But, as today is my day off, you'll have to wait a couple of days until I do any more waffling about it.

It's looking good, though.

Today

Only three meetings today (and a total of 21 races) so I'm going to take an opportunity to have a day off.

I shall stick around until the ratings have gone out but I probably won't be answering emails after about 10am your time.

Although the 6am test ratings look pretty good to my eyes (with 20 rated races.)

Nothing stands out, apart from lots of Unique Jockeys and Trainers.

Now, please bear in mind that I know absolutely nothing about horse racing but...

Nigel Twiston-Davies (I have absolutely no idea who he is but he does seem to win a fair few races, especially when his lad is sitting on the horse) has only got one horse running at Towcester today.

If you want to track me down, I'll be largely based in a PMU, somewhere in Brittany, having fun (and the occasional glass of winter beer) whilst studying some Dutching statistics.

On Sundays, I do have to admit that Wine O'Clock (or, should that be Beer O'Clock?) does have the habit of coming slightly early.

I probably need to buy a new watch!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards