Focus Ratings is a Uk and Irish Horse Racing ratings service designed to aid you and help you narrow the field so that you can concentrate on the real contenders. Our completely computerised analysis system selects the top three rated horses from each race and sends out the ratings every day at 10:00 a.m.  Wonderful results and an excellent strike rate.  Use Focus Ratings to win more money and make more profits from British and Irish Horse Racing.  The only horse racing system you'll ever need.

Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

A pretty average day, yesterday...

But our Portfolio bet did win so it's not all bad.

And there were some tasty forecasts and trifectas as well.

I have some important things to say about the new speed ratings and so, if you don't normally read my Morning News, today is a day that you might want to.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 19.05%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 57.66 units returned to 116 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -50.29%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.53 units returned to 42 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -53.5%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.75 units returned to 37 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -53.92%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 17.38 units returned to 37 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, -53.03%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Limerick 15:35:00 - The CSF paid £12.24

Lingfield (AW) 16:50:00 - The CSF paid £17.42

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 15:05:00 - The CSF paid £26.01

Kempton 16:05:00 - The CSF paid £11.96

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Uttoxeter 13:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £31.50

Uttoxeter 17:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £52.80

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 16 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Kempton 16:05 Our Kaempfer (2) 5.50 7.6
Newcastle 17:45 Kings Chorister (8) 7.00 7.95
Wolverhampton (AW) 20:15 Perfect Cracker (6) 7.50 9.47

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = UK Recent Returners - where R4 Status = 1 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 70% and where Position last time out = Winner and where Country = UK and Runners was equal to or less than 12 and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 110% and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner and Horse was NOT a Course and Distance Winner and Horse was a Clear Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 15:40:00 - Pretend (8)

Races (over last year): 6 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 66.67% ROI: 106.01% AV SP: 1.59

Pretend won at 2.1 ISP ( 2.12 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Speed Ratings

Now, as I mentioned yesterday, I have been working so closely with the new speed ratings that I am at a bit of a loss as to how to use them.

Thus, I am very grateful to one of the members who has done some analysis.

Actually, he is just of many who have offered contributions and advice.

This analysis is based upon the results from the speed ratings from Friday... focusratings-sr-full-2015-03-13.pdf

Now, before I start, I shall say that this is just the analysis from one day's ratings - it's not the Holy Grail - I'll leave it to your intelligence to understand that much more work is required here.

So, this is what JB has had to say...

Hello Keith,

Thanks a lot for the Speed Ratings!

They are very useful:

From yesterday's speedrated races, I eliminated the races with only one or two speedrated horses. In fact, I just kept the races with more than half the horses speedrated.

Then I kept only the top 3 speedrated horses in these races.

From the 14 qualifying races, 9 top 3 speedrated horses won:

Top rated (BSP):
- Pinzolo @ 2.96 (Lingfield 15:45)
- The Dapper Tapper @ 10.59 (Lingfield 17:05)
- Ninepointsixthree @ 8.49 (Wolverhampton 17.45)
- Burren View Lady @ 5.70 (Dundalk 18:35)

2nd rated:
- Happydoingnothing @ 40.00 (Wolverhampton 20:45)
- Almadaa @ 7.39 (Dundalk 18:35)

3rd rated:
- Rakaan @ 11.50 (Lingfield 15:05)
- Tsarglas @ 3.78 (Wolverhampton 20:15)
- County Wexford @ 11.00 (Dundalk)

That is in terms of Overall Profit Index (Less Betfair's 5% comm.):

Top: +61.09%
2nd: +208.00%
3rd: +57.97%

Quite decent, isn't it?!

From the 9 speedrated winners, only 3 were also conventional top 3 rated horses.

So not much correlation between R4 and Speed Ratings (SR).

From the 4 really high priced SR winners (10.00 or more), only one of them is R4 top 3.

It seems SR is more an all different supplementary strategic option.

Obviously, the Overall Profit Indices would be far higher if including only really high priced horses.

My only regret is to have cautiously reduced my stakes for this first try!

Anyway, these outstanding SR results are no big surprise to me.

Suggestion: Would it be possible for you to delete the jump races from the current SR?

All those blank columns are pure paper waste.

I look forward to see the SR applied also to jump races! I feel it would lead to
outstanding results as well.

Keep on the good work!

Best regards - JB

Now, I do have to say, once again, that this is just from the analysis of one day's Speed Ratings.

Please be careful before you bet your left kidney on my numbers; and that's all they are at the moment, just numbers.

I think that an awful lot more work is required before a strategy is defined.

Today

Today's early test ratings show just 19 rated races from three meetings.

There's no All Weather of Flat racing today so I won't be sending out any Speed Ratings.

I will write the code to allow me to produce a new PDF that only shows the relevant races (i.e. only the AW and Flat races.)

I have done some initial testing to see how well the speed ratings (or, my implementation of Speed Ratings) applies to NH races.

To be honest, they don't!

And I always have to be honest with you guys; after all, you're betting your hard earned wages on my numbers.

However (and to my shame), they do seem to do better with the NH Flat races than my own R4 ratings do (in terms of profit, anyway.)

And I guess that profit is what it's all about.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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