Morning News

Good morning...

Well, yesterday was a far better day.

One of these days I'll work out why some days work well for us (or why some days the ratings work better) and vice versa.

And...

Our Portfolio Bet won!

That's two days in a row.

And that comment was slightly tongue in cheek as I do know that the portfolio bets haven't performed as well as I expected.

And I do apologise for that.

Anyway, let's forget about that and get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 38.89%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 43.53 units returned to 52 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -16.29%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.92 units returned to 18 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 77.33%

In other words, had you blindly banged £1 on every top rated horse it would have cost you £18 and you'd have got £31.92 back. The £13.93 profit might have paid for an Indian takeaway for one (at least, it would have when I lived in England - perhaps things have changed.)

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 9.36 units returned to 18 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -48%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 2.25 units returned to 16 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, -85.94%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Limerick 15:30:00 - The CSF paid £8.71

Limerick 16:35:00 - The CSF paid £3.10

Navan 16:45:00 - The CSF paid £6.34

Carlisle 17:10:00 - The CSF paid £7.48

A £1 forecast on every race would have cost £18 and would have returned £25.73. In other words, the £7.73 profit might have paid for a couple of pints and a packet of crisps. And I may be getting old but I can remember the days when I could go out with a fiver and get 2 pints of beer, a packet of 10 Benson and Hedges, some pork scratchings and still have a enough left over to spend on the fruit machine.

Those were good days, they were.

True, we did have to work 25 hours a day down the pit (and then do overtime on top of that) but we were happy! Kids of today just don't know they're born!

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Carlisle 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £9.59

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Limerick 15:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £28.20. The Tricast paid £18.73

Limerick 16:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £11.50

Doing the Trifecta in all 18 races would have returned £39.70 to £18 staked.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination trifecta yesterday.

Navan 14:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £9.30

Winners

From the 18 rated races there were 10 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Carlisle	14:30	Bobs Lord Tara (2)	8.00	10.58
Limerick	14:55	Keppols Queen (5)	7.00	9.44
Carlisle	16:05	Russe Blanc (4)	6.00	7.6
Navan	17:15	Ibetellingyoualie (1)	8.00	9.57

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Chase the Winners! - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 70% and Runners was equal to or more than 7 and Runners was equal to or less than 15 and the Horse\'s R4 is greater than 4.0 and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 120% and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Limerick - 16:35:00 - Draycott Place (3)

Races (over last year): 10 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 40.00% ROI: 106.00% AV SP: 2.65

Draycott Place won at 2.25 ISP (2.52 BSP.)

That's two days in a row that our portfolio bet has won. Another win and I'll start believing in Father Christmas!

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 18 rated races from three meetings.

As there are 6 All Weather races at Chelmsford today I shall be sending out the new Speed Ratings just after all the Portfolio selections have gone out.

Once I am happy with the process, I shall start including these ratings on the normal ratings email.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards