Morning News

Good morning...

Another decent day with the strike rate for the top rated horse a smidgin away from 40%.

And, for the third day in a row, our Portfolio bet won - this time at a pretty decent 6/1!

I'm starting to think that a better metric to describe the accuracy of the ratings is the number of trifectas and combination trifectas that we produce.

Yesterday, from the eighteen races we got the first three, albeit in the wrong order, in four of those races.

In fact, looking more closely, I can see that in one of those cases we got the first three in the right order.

I think that, once I start work on R5 (the improved version of our current ratings) in about a month's time, that'll be a good way of evaluating the success of those new ratings.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 38.89%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 47.12 units returned to 52 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -9.38%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 22.75 units returned to 18 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 26.39%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 6.62 units returned to 17 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -61.06%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 17.75 units returned to 17 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 4.41%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Taunton 15:50:00 - The CSF paid £4.39

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Southwell 14:35:00 - The CSF paid £6.88

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 trifecta yesterday.

Taunton 15:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £16.10

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Chelmsford (AW) 15:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £50.90

Taunton 15:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £21.20

Chelmsford (AW) 17:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £17.40

Winners

From the 18 rated races there were 13 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 1 of those was at a nice price.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Chelmsford (AW)	15:30	Just Because (2)	7.00	8.2

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Chelmsford (AW) - 15:30:00 - Just Because (2)

Races (over last year): 41 Wins: 23 Strike Rate: 56.10% ROI: 148.10% AV SP: 2.64

Just Because won at 7.0 ISP (8.2 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 25 rated races from four meetings.

For some reason, Wexford seems to have been missed out. I will try to rectify that before the real ratings go out but I am a bit short on time.

And, in any case, the code that I will have to edit is pretty fundamental to the entire ratings and, as a result, if I cock it up, I'll stand a good chance of breaking the whole ratings.

For that reason, if it looks too risky, I'll just have to apologise in advance and say that there won't be any ratings for Wexford today and then take my time (rather than rush things) and sort out the problem after the ratings have gone out.

I will send out the Speed Ratings after the normal ratings and, once again, will try to work out and resolve the bug that meant we didn't have a shortened version yesterday.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards