Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday, once the ratings had gone out, I went out to have lunch with friends and, to be honest...

To have a bit of a day off.

After all, it was a small day's racing with only three meetings and 21 races.

But, when I got back in the evening and started to look at the results, I thought to myself, "Wow, what an incredible day!"

Perhaps I need to get out more often.

Yesterday you could have blindly backed every top three rated horse and made a profit and, bearing in mind that there were only 21 races...

3 Forecasts, 2 Reverse Forecasts, 2 Trifectas and 3 Combination Trifectas seems quite a lot of exotics for such a small amount of races.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.57%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 69.1 units returned to 62 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 11.45%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21.88 units returned to 21 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 4.19%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.72 units returned to 21 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, 36.76%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18.5 units returned to 20 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, -7.5%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

Towcester 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £2.82

Taunton 15:20:00 - The CSF paid £7.19

Wolverhampton (AW) 15:40:00 - The CSF paid £12.71

If had done the Forecast in every race yesterday (to £1 stakes) it would have cost you £21 and you would have got £22.72 back.

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Wolverhampton (AW) 14:05:00 - The CSF paid £48.82

Wolverhampton (AW) 17:10:00 - The CSF paid £3.73

If had done the Reverse Forecast in every race yesterday (to £2 stakes) it would have cost you £42 and you would have got £75.27 back.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Towcester 14:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.30

Wolverhampton (AW) 15:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £50.30

If had done the Trifecta in every race yesterday (to £1 stakes) it would have cost you £21 and you would have got £56.60 back.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday (in addition to the normal trifectas already listed.)

Wolverhampton (AW) 17:10:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £9.30

Winners

From the 21 rated races there were 12 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Wolverhampton (AW)	14:05	Waterloo Dock (6)	15.00	18.59
Towcester	15:30	Wicklewood (3)	13.00	15.5
Wolverhampton (AW)	15:40	Al Muheer (3)	7.50	8.48
Towcester	16:00	Mighty Mambo (7)	9.00	11.0
Wolverhampton (AW)	16:40	Hickster (5)	5.50	6.1

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 21 rated races from three meetings.

Every race is rated.

Today I have got a few fiddly jobs to do; jobs that I have been putting off, if I'm to be honest...

In order to get the Speed Ratings onto the morning ratings email.

And to automatically calculate the speed ratings earlier in the day (at about 5am.)

This will mean that you'll get them earlier (and, in fact, the normal ratings will come out slightly earlier) and I won't have to send them out manually.

And, talking of the Speed Ratings...

I've been getting some great feedback from some of you about how you're making them work for you.

This is good news; I think that it'll be interesting to see how they work once the Flat Turf season starts.

In a way I'll be very glad when the last few bits are done; it's been a very long winter for me and so once the Speed Ratings are finished and the last of the Winter Upgrades are done...

I can categorically say that I'll be doing no more changes ever again to Focus Ratings.

I'm guessing that that resolution will last for about 2 weeks and then I'll get down to working on the new and improved version of our standard ratings, which I'm calling R5.

The initial studies that I have made show that there are some simple ways that I can improve the strike rate and, more importantly, the profitability of the normal ratings.

However, having a bit of a day off yesterday did show me that it's not really very healthy to spend all day, seven days a week, sat behind 5 computer screens playing with numbers and writing code.

So, as I'm an early bird (I generally get up at about 3am UK time), I'll work on the ratings until about lunch time and then make a point of going out in the afternoon for a cycle ride or a walk in the forest (I'm a keen mushroomer) to recharge my batteries.

And I'm only mentioning this as this will mean that the pace of any improvements to the ratings will be slower than they might be (but I think that they'll be worth waiting for) and,

I won't be around in the afternoons to answer emails.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards