Morning News

A quiet day's racing.

There were really no surprises apart from the 15:35 at Wolves.

I'm not sure why we got that one so wrong.

But, for the rest of the day's racing, if we didn't get the winner, we got the 2nd or 3rd (or both.)

The end of the day result doesn't look too happy...

Or rather, I felt that we should have done better but,

I can't really see anything too wrong.

Sometimes we just have days when everything seems alright but,

The figures just disagree.

Yesterday's Results

Another decent day, as you can see from the Results.

A strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 27.78% is fine but, I felt that we should have done better.

Forecasts

There were two forecasts yesterday.

Kempton 15:15 - The CSF paid £13.81

Wolverhampton 17:05 - The CSF paid £40.44

Tricast

There was one tricast yesterday.

Kempton 12:35 - the Trifecta paid £33.60

Winners

From the 18 rated races there were 10 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - Four of these were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Kempton	14:10	Carole's Spirit	12.0	13.8
Ludlow	14:20	Arkaim	9.0	10.0
Ludlow	15:25	Grand Gigolo	13.0	16.87
Wolverhampton	17:05	Malaysian Boleh	12.0	13.86

Comments...

There were no non-runners (from the top three rated horses) and so, the Live Ratings didn't have anything to do.

As I mentioned, I'm not too happy with the results but, thinking about it...

This time last year I would have been gagging for a strike rate of of 27.78%

Perhaps I'm just getting greedy.

The Portfolio

There was no Banker's Bet yesterday (nor a Chancer's bet)...

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Dutching

I am still working on the Dutching investigation.

Yesterday's findings only provoked more questions so I didn't get a post done.

My main issue is the distribution of results as shown in the image below...

The graph shows the percentage strike rate (vertical axis) against the number of runners (horizontal axis.)

Logically, the more runners you have, the fewer times that dutching works for us; and, indeed the first part of the graph shows that.

Between 6 and 13 runners, the line is pretty straight (showing a linear relationship between results and the number of runners.)

This suggests that this is our target area.

However, do you notice the latter part of the graph, where the number of runners is greater than 20?

My feeling that in bigger races, we may have 20 runners but, of those runners, half probably have no chance of winning. Thus, it's really a 10 horse race with another 10 hangers on.

With bigger races we get higher prices, generally.

So, can you see that I need to look at things like RC0 (the race type, according to the number of runners that I can rate in that race) and RC1 (the direct relationship between the number of runners that I can rate in a race.)

And then I need to back test that against race type.

There should be an update post today.

Live Ratings

The results from the Live Ratings may be seen at... http://focusratings.com/results-live-ratings/

I have sort of just realised that I need another results page showing the difference between the Live Ratings and the normal ratings.

If I get time, I'll implement that today.

Today

Another quiet day with only three meetings (just like yesterday.)

I've just run the test ratings (at 4am) and they look good, with 17 rated races.

Nothing stands out (from a quick look) and I'm expecting a similar day as we had yesterday.

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

One Response to “Morning News”

1. philip grundy says:

   November 25, 2014 at 9:33 am

   Re the dutching graph.
   Could the higher % accuracy of the results for the races with the higher numbers of runners be influenced and weighted by the Irish results.
   In some of their multi runner novice hurdles 90%+ of the runners can be discounted which seems different from over here.
   This might warrant further investigation.
   As a new subscriber I find ratings very interesting but will be in touch as I need some further explanation. Regards Philip G.

   Log in to Reply