Morning News

Good morning...

You know, I was a bit worried about how well the new Speed Figures would work on the Flat Turf.

Especially this time of the year at the start of the season...

However, yesterday, our top rated horse (according to the Speed Ratings) in the 3.45pm at Curragh was Ramone who managed to come...

First @ 100/1!

And the Betfair starting price was 330.0!

So, I guess that the speed ratings do work on the flat turf, after all.

And, as if that wasn't enough, our Bankers Bet won!

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.83%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 67.03 units returned to 77 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -12.95%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 14.53 units returned to 24 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -39.36%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 6 units returned to 28 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -78.57%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46.5 units returned to 25 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 86%

Forecasts

There were 0 forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Ascot 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £2.70

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Ascot 17:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £36.50

Winners

From the 28 rated races there were 14 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Limerick	15:30	Velocity Boy (2)	8.00	8.33
Ascot	16:10	Creevytennant (1)	5.50	5.52
Curragh	16:55	Onenightidreamed (17)	9.00	11.6
Limerick	17:10	Ludo Et Emergo (3)	11.00	14.75
Ascot	17:15	Calgary Bay (4)	9.00	11.0

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Big Field Maiden Favs - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Runners was equal to or more than 16 and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Curragh - 14:40:00 - The Warrior (15)

Races (over last year): 16 Wins: 11 Strike Rate: 68.75% ROI: 189.06% AV SP: 2.75

The Warrior won at 3.75 ISP (3.75 BSP.)

And that now makes it 6 wins from the last 7 Banker's Bets!

Chancers Bet = Flat Big Field Maiden Favs - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Runners was equal to or more than 16 and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Curragh - 17:25:00 - Jacobean (9)

Races (over last year): 16 Wins: 11 Strike Rate: 68.75% ROI: 189.06% AV SP: 2.75

Jacobean was obviously so blown away by that 100/1 winner in the 3.45pm at Curragh that he forgot his responsibilities and only managed to come fourth.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Live Ratings

As well as the good news about that big winner, the Live Ratings managed to do some good as well.

2.25 Limerick - The Mighty Milan was a non runner.

Rivera Son became the new top rated and won @ evens (I'm sorry it wasn't higher but, I don't set the prices.)

2.55 Limerick - Dandridge and Solita were both non runners.

Daliyan came 2nd @ 14/1

5.30 Doncaster - Rainford Glory and Angus Glens were both non runners.

The Live Ratings brought in Gimme Five and Highway Code as our new 2nd and 3rd rated horses.

Gimme Five came 3rd @ 5/1
Highway Code won @ 18/1

And that's not too shabby, is it?

This Week...

I've got one chunk of work left for the Speed Ratings; I'll get this done today and tomorrow.

I need to finish moving the calculations to earlier in the day.

Now, this won't effect the accuracy and it is nice as I'll be able to test the code during the working day and not break anything.

I'm also going to try and come up with speed ratings for just the top three rated horses in Speed Rating order.

If all goes well, that will be finished and available from Wednesday morning.

Then, on Wednesday, I intend to dive into the builder and get some of the Winter Upgrades on that done.

On Thursday I intend to spend the day writing a guide to strategies for using the ratings, bearing in mind that a lot has changed since we started about 2 years ago.

On Friday I shall publish 2 new systems to enhance the Portfolio.

And on, Saturday I'll be doing some more work on how to predict those races where it is worth looking for Tricasts.

During the week, ad hoc Winter Upgrades will be implemented and I'll keep you informed of those.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 18 rated races from three meetings.

There's no Flat Turf or Flat AW today so the speed ratings will be empty.

Still, after yesterday I guess that we need to get our breath back.

Anyway, I have managed, so far this morning, to sort out the bug on the new Speed Ratings which miss-truncated the name of Sir Mark Prescott, 3rd Baronet.

He will now be shown as Sir M Prescott - I apologise for any inadvertent insult that I may have caused.

One bug down, another 100 to go.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards