Morning News

Good morning...

One of the reasons that I do these Morning News emails is so that I can see good things when we have dismal days.

Yesterday was pretty dismal as far as the results are concerned but, nothing to really worry about.

There was something interesting that's caused me to take on a bit of new work today.

Three of the six AW races were won by the horse that was top on Flat Turf speed ratings.

And one of them, Misu Mac in the 14:55 at Southwell came in first at 66/1 (149.38 BSP.)

So, today I have to go through my code to determine why.

Perhaps Flat Speed is a more important determinator for horses who run on both the Flat Turf and the AW surfaces.

Anyway, it could be just a blip but...

I do need to do the analysis to set my mind at rest.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.67%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46.15 units returned to 53 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -12.92%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 13.12 units returned to 18 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -27.11%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 13.53 units returned to 17 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -20.41%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19.5 units returned to 18 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 8.33%

Forecasts

There were 0 forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Huntingdon 15:15:00 - The CSF paid £6.23

Huntingdon 16:20:00 - The CSF paid £2.66

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Huntingdon 14:10:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £7.80

Huntingdon 15:15:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £9.80

Huntingdon 16:20:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £7.00

Winners

From the 19 rated races there were 8 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Southwell (AW)	14:20	Toto Skyllachy (1)	6.00	7.6
Huntingdon	14:45	Phare Isle (6)	6.50	6.96
Exeter	15:05	Russborough (2)	8.00	9.93
Southwell (AW)	16:00	Caged Lightning (3)	5.50	5.9
Huntingdon	16:55	Altesse De Guye (1)	13.00	20.0

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 32 rated races from five meetings.

I shall be starting work on the Winter Upgrades on the Builder today.

However, I may also try to get the Speed Ratings analysis done as yesterday's results show that there might be some value in producing an Average Speed rating by combining the speed ratings of both codes as well as showing the individual speed ratings.

Certainly if you had looked at the 14:55 at Southwell, there were no AW for any of the horses in that race and you might have decided to use the Flat speed ratings as a guide.

And they would have pointed Misu Mac who, as I've previously mentioned, came in first at 66/1 (149.38 BSP.)

It was hard enough generating the speed ratings in the first place but...

Working out how to use them is just as difficult.

Still, with the two really big priced winners in under a week, it does need to be done.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards