Morning News

Good morning...

Well, I don't know if someone snuck a bit of "Go Faster Powder" into my cornflakes yesterday but I seem to have got an immense amount of work done.

I don't know if the work, in real terms, was so much but...

It was nice to actually tick off outstanding jobs rather than spend days looking at just one item such as how many milliseconds a neck is worth.

And the racing was OK, as well.

Sure, the strike rate wasn't incredible but I'm not expecting big numbers this time of the year.

I know that a number of members don't actually bet during April because it can be so inconsistent (tired NH horses who have been jumping all winter, unraced Flat horses or, worse, Flat horses who raced all last summer and spent the winter on the sand.)

And I don't mean Benidorm!

Now, I do need to say that I made many changes yesterday and, as a result, there is a chance that the System Selections may go horribly wrong today!

I don't think that they will but I was unable to test the code yesterday and, as a result, will be producing the ratings manually today, just in case...

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.33%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 68.05 units returned to 91 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -25.22%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.57 units returned to 30 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -21.43%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 17.53 units returned to 31 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -43.65%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.95 units returned to 30 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, -20.17%

Forecasts

There were 0 forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Kempton (AW) 18:15:00 - The CSF paid £3.37

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Wincanton 14:50:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £9.50

Towcester 16:10:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £12.00

Dundalk (AW) 18:35:00 - The Tricast paid £73.37. The Trifecta paid 73.00

Winners

From the 32 rated races there were 18 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Towcester	14:40	Red Whisper (2)	9.00	6.09
Dundalk (AW)	18:35	Cappadocia (11)	5.50	6.27
Kempton (AW)	20:15	Ocean Legend (5)	10.00	11.74
Dundalk (AW)	21:05	Bomber Jackson (8)	7.50	8.16

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Kempton (AW) - 19:15:00 - Chorus Of Lies (5)

Races (over last year): 41 Wins: 23 Strike Rate: 56.10% ROI: 159.32% AV SP: 2.84

Chorus of Lies came fourth.

Chancers Bet = NH Chase - Mares who are top rated and came 3rd last time out. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Chase and Horse = Mare and where Position last time out = Third

Selection = Back to ISP - Towcester - 15:40:00 - Strange Bird (6)

Races (over last year): 19 Wins: 7 Strike Rate: 36.84% ROI: 209.99% AV SP: 5.70

Strange Bird came fourth.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Speed Ratings...

I'm going to wait a little bit longer before I do the analysis of the speed ratings as I need to plug in a little bit of code so that I can automatically generate a spreadsheet, every night, in the same way that I do with the normal ratings results.

However, one little strategy does appear to be showing up (although I don't really understand it as yet.)

Take a look at average Average Seconds per Furlong.

In other words, if you have both ASF and FSF, add them together and divide by two.

If not, just use the one figure that you have.

Then you have the consolidated Average Seconds per Furlong.

Quite a few winners & placers yesterday from the horse that is top on Consolidated Average Seconds per Furlong but, small prices.

Winter Upgrades

1). I have added a Profit/Loss figure to the Builder. The benefit of showing the P&L is that, for example, you may have a high ROI for a built system, but, given a low number of selections, you will only make peanuts. Ideally you want a high ROI coupled with a good profit figure for a decent system.

2). I have also fixed the bug so that Monthly and Course stats are shown for Betfair Laying systems.

However, I haven't yet audited the numbers.

3). I have changed the selection criteria for the Portfolio bets so that they are now only produced if they have an ROI of greater than 100% over the last exact year (before they only had to have an ROI of better than 100%.)

This will mean less bets but a higher return.

It will also mean that I'll have to come up with some new systems to give us more bets.

4). I have added the Average SP to the System Selections.

5). I have updated the Daily Results PDF so that if the horse was the actual favourite at the off, its forecast price will be in bold.

One of the members asked for this to help him with a possible strategy and it wasn't difficult to do and so it's done.

Something to make you laugh...

When I decided to occasionally share a little joke with you, I decided to avoid politics and sex.

However, today's little joke has both. I console myself with the fact that the sex isn't graphic and, as far as the politics is concerned, even die hard Labour supports didn't like Cherie Blair (in fact, most die hard Labour supporters that I know didn't even like Tony Blair!)

The Cow.

Cherie Blair is touring the countryside in a chauffeur-driven car.

Suddenly, a cow jumps out into the road, they hit it full on and the car comes to a stop.

Cherie, in her usual charming manner, says to the chauffeur: "You get out and check - you were driving."

The chauffeur gets out, checks and reports that the animal is dead.

"You were driving; go and tell the farmer", says Cherie.

Five hours later, the chauffeur returns totally plastered, hair ruffled with a big grin on his face.

"My goodness, what happened to you?" asks Cherie.

The chauffeur replies: "When I got there, the farmer opened his best bottle of malt whisky, the wife gave me a slap-up meal and the daughter made love to me."

"What on earth did you say?" asks Cherie.

"I knocked on the door, and when it was answered, I said to them: 'I'm Cherie Blair's chauffeur and I've just killed the cow.'"

Today

Today's early test ratings show 25 rated races from four meetings.

I shall be working on a eBook (in PDF format) of possible strategies for using the ratings today.

However, I may also bring forward some of tomorrow's work and publish a couple of new systems for the portfolio.

Scheduled for tomorrow is the Speed Ratings in CSV format and I know that quite a few of you are waiting for that.

That will allow me to bring forward some of next week's work and, if I work through the weekend, I should be able to get the Winter Upgrades done and dusted by Monday.

Which will mean that life can return to normal and I'll be able to do more analysis of the day's racing in this morning news, just as I used to do.

It will also mean that I'll be able to start work (gently) on R5 (which will run alongside R4) which should give us a higher strike rate AND higher prices.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards