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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

So, what happened yesterday?

It's April and April is supposed to be the worst month of the year for betting.

I know punters who don't bet on horses in April because it's such a difficult month.

But someone obviously forgot to tell the ratings that.

And, I guess that it's my fault and I ought to apologise.

I'm not, however, going to apologise for giving you a 51.17% strike rate for the top rated horse.

Or, for giving you a 82.61% strike rate for the top three rated horses.

I think that that's the best we've ever done.

I'll try to calculate if it is but, first, I'll have to go and buy a calculator big enough to handle those sort of numbers!

And, remember, these figures are only for the rated races. There were two unrated races (but displayed on the speed ratings PDF) at Clonmel where our top rated horse also won!

And I'm not even going to mention Forecasts,Reverse Forecasts and Trifectas and that sort of stuff...

Or that, in the 14:50 at Taunton, where there was a joint winner, we managed to get both of them!

Well I probably will; I won't be able to resist doing so but, first, I think that I need to take a cold shower, have a walk around the block and have a nice, calming bowl of Ready Break to lower the excitement levels a bit!

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 52.17%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 73.57 units returned to 72 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 2.18%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 44.67 units returned to 23 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 94.22%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 16.9 units returned to 24 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -29.58%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 12 units returned to 25 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, -52%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Taunton 14:20:00 - The CSF paid £4.39

Ludlow 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £4.01

Wolverhampton (AW) 15:10:00 - The CSF paid £3.37

Taunton 15:20:00 - The CSF paid £18.81

If you had done the Forecast (to £1 stakes) on every race yesterday it would have cost you £23 and you would have had £30.58 returned.

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Wolverhampton (AW) 17:10:00 - The CSF paid £18.27

If you had done the Reverse Forecast (to £2 stakes) on every race yesterday it would have cost you £46 and you would have had £48.85 returned.

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Ludlow 14:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £10.70

Wolverhampton (AW) 15:10:00 - The Trifecta paid £15.70

If you had done the Trifecta (to £1 stakes) on every race yesterday it would have cost you £23 and you would have had £26.40 returned.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Taunton 14:50:00 - The Trifecta paid £48.40

Taunton 16:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £34.60

Winners

From the 24 rated races there were 19 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 6 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Taunton 14:50 Classical Art (4) 7.50 9.51
Taunton 14:50 Princess Ombu (6) 6.00 6.93
Wolverhampton (AW) 16:10 Al Muheer (5) 6.00 5.77
Taunton 16:20 Milly Malone (5) 6.00 6.20
Clonmel 16:35 Knockrea (8) 5.50 6.4
Clonmel 19:05 Mallards In Flight (9) 6.50 6.89

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days. - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse's last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Wolverhampton (AW) - 16:40:00 - Arc Cara (1)

Races (over last year): 42 Wins: 23 Strike Rate: 54.76% ROI: 155.52% AV SP: 2.84

Arc Cara was so overcome by the results yesterday that he became a non-runner. Actually, I have heard a rumour (unsubstantiated and, possibly totally invented by me) that he had a tenner on the forecast in the 15:20 at Taunton and was so excited with his winnings that he couldn't be bothered to race.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Ongoing Work...

wine-bottle-glass--finally---a-wine-glass-that-fits-my-needs_aIf all goes well...

Today I shall be publishing two new systems to be added to the Portfolio.

These are based on research done by Iain - many thanks for sharing, Iain.

They are both based upon sound logic and, whilst quite simple, they should provide us with more Bankers Bets all year round.

And, looking at the numbers, so far, more winning Bankers Bets (although we haven't been doing too badly recently.)

If any of you use the laying option on The Builder, please be aware that I have slightly up-cocked the new Profit reporting and I am showing profits and losses to ten times what they actually are. I shall fix this today.

I am also hoping that I can produce a spreadsheet for you to show the results of the new Speed Ratings over the last 18 months or so.

Please be aware that the speed ratings are totally different to the normal ratings and it seems, at first glance, that on the days when the normal ratings do well, the speed ratings do less well (and vice versa.)

However, I see that as a positive rather than a negative and, if you have systems based upon both sets of ratings, you are "hedging your bets", so to speak.

The next three days are going to be incredibly busy for me as I'm desperate to finish off the Winter Upgrades so that I can relax a bit.

Next week I intend to concentrate on developing a structured betting strategy for myself.

After all, I think that it's about time that I started benefiting from the ratings myself.

I've put £1,000 aside as a bank (the most that I can afford to lose) and have installed an accounts system to record my results.

It'll be interesting to see if I can supplement my Red Wine and Smelly Cheese fund by putting my own money on my numbers.

Something to make you smile...

Now, I know that, yesterday, I said that I don't tell jokes that involve politics or sex so...

Bob immediately sent me one which covers both taboo subjects!

However, as it is of such vital historical significance that I feel honour bound to share it with you.

A True Story?

Finally, the true story as told by Hillary Clinton to world leaders.

"Some years ago, nearing dinner time at the White House, our regular cook fell ill and they had to get a replacement on short notice."

"He wasn't the smartest looking guy, in fact he seemed a bit dirty."

"The President voiced his concerns to his Chief of Staff but was told that this was the best they could do on such short notice."

"Just before the meal, Bill noticed the cook sticking his finger in the soup to taste it and again complained to the Chief Of Staff, but he was assured that many chefs did that."

"Dinner went okay, although Bill thought that the soup tasted a little funny. By the time dessert came, he started to have stomach cramps and nausea. It was getting worse and worse until finally the President had to excuse himself."

"By now, he was desperately ill with violent cramps and was so disorientated that he couldn't remember which door led to the bathroom."

"He was on the verge of passing out from the pain when he finally found a door that opened."

"As he unzipped his trousers and ran in, he realized to his horror that he had stumbled into Monica Lewinsky's office with his trousers around his knees."

"As he was about to pass out, this naive girl bent over him and heard the President whisper in a barely audible voice:"

"Sack my cook"

"And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the whole misunderstanding occurred."

Today

Today's early test ratings show 13 rated races from two meetings.

I'm going to be glued to my computer this afternoon, watching the results coming in to see if we can replicate yesterday's results and, of course...

Patiently counting the seconds until Wine O'Clock!

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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