Morning News

Good morning...

Not much to say about yesterday,

Especially the Grand National.

We don't seem to be much good with that race;

In 2013, none of the top three rated horses won.

Last year, our top rated horse actually finished (the other two didn't, though) and came fifth which is some sort of a result, I suppose.

And yesterday, two of the three top rated horses finished and our third rated horse came fifth.

So, I guess that the ratings are getting better as far as this race is concerned; although at this rate, it might be 2025 before we get a winner from a top three rated horse.

Next year, it'll be interesting to see if we have speed ratings for the NH races and whether they do better.

Or, the new R5 ratings (which will run alongside the current ratings) might be better able to find horses that can finish this race and get placed.

Who knows?

Strangely enough, with such a low strike rate for yesterday, we were still profitable had you blindly done the Forecast in every race.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 16.67%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 103.25 units returned to 127 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -18.7%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.54 units returned to 42 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -22.05%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.08 units returned to 41 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -31.51%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46.63 units returned to 44 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 5.98%

Forecasts

There were 4 forecasts yesterday.

Chepstow 13:20:00 - The CSF paid £3.23

Aintree 13:30:00 - The CSF paid £14.44

Newcastle 17:00:00 - The CSF paid £21.33

Lingfield (AW) 17:55:00 - The CSF paid 17.80

If you had blindly done the forecast (to £1 stakes) in every race yesterday, you would have had £56.80 returned for your £42 in stakes.

Reverse Forecasts

There were 1 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Lingfield (AW) 15:40:00 - The CSF paid £10.82

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 1 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Chepstow 13:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.90

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was combination tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Chepstow 15:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £18.30

Winners

From the 42 rated races there were 20 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 8 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Lingfield (AW)	13:15	Marmot (6)	7.00	9.8
Aintree	14:50	Whisper (8)	6.00	7.6
Newcastle	15:15	Mica Mika (11)	6.50	7.4
Chepstow	16:50	Brave Helios (7)	9.00	9.00
Gowran Park	17:15	Dancingwithangels (9)	6.50	8.16
Aintree	17:40	Hollies Pearl (4)	9.00	13.02
Wolverhampton (AW)	18:20	Teide Peak (6)	12.00	14.55
Wolverhampton (AW)	19:50	The Dapper Tapper (4)	8.00	8.13

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = High priced Beaten Favs on the Flat - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse was a Beaten Favourite and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 7.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Gowran Park - 16:40:00 - Blue Skimmer (2)

Races (over last year): 14 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 28.57% ROI: 241.13% AV SP: 8.44

Blue Skimmer came fifth.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 27 rated races from four meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

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The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards