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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsA nice day's racing, yesterday.

Strangely, we achieved the same strike rate (for the top rated horse) that we did on Monday.

The All Weather racing was definitely the better part of the day...

It's just a shame that I don't like watching All Weather racing (I do enjoy watching Jumps, though.)

I've been continuing my work on Dutching but...

Somehow managed to distract myself by looking at those races that weren't rated (they actually are rated but I don't publish the ratings where I can only rate 40%, or more, horses in the race.)

Strangely, we seem to be doing as well (if not better) in those races as we do in the rated races.

However, yesterday may have been a one off and I will need to do far more work to determine whether I should publish those races (don't worry, I've worked out an additional filter to ensure that it doesn't affect the Builder or any systems that you've built or subscribed to.)

Yesterday's Results

Another decent day, as you can see from the Results.

A strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 27.78% is better than I thought we'd get after the first few races.

Forecasts

There were three forecasts yesterday.

Kempton 17:45 - The CSF paid £6.50

Kempton 19:45 - The CSF paid £15.34

Kempton 21:00 - The CSF paid £6.47

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 36 rated races there were 24 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - Four of these were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Lingfield 14:10 Oregon Gift 6.0 7.0
Wetherby 14:25 Officer Drivel 11.0 20.18
Wetherby 15:30 Isla Fernandos 21.0 30.0
Dundalk 18.30 Indian Tomahawk 11.0 13.0

Comments...

In the 6pm at Dundalk, Tsar Paul was a non-runner.

The Live Ratings bumped Mr Bounty up to 2rd rated horse and brought in Times in Anatefka as the 3rd rated horse.

Times in Anatefka won at 5.0 ISP (5.3 BSP.) Screenshot from the actual ratings.

screenshot-focusratings.com 2014-11-27 06-12-06

As can be seen below. Screenshot from the live ratings.

screenshot-focusratings.com 2014-11-27 06-12-33

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (and, strangely, the Chancer's bet was the same horse)...

Now, technically, this is a bug but...

A good one as the same horse has been selected by 2 different systems.

Bankers Bet = All Weather Bankers

where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 86% and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 150% and the Forecast Starting Price was less than 3.1

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 14:00:00 - Two Smart (5)

Races (over last year): 31 Wins: 23 Strike Rate: 74.19% ROI: 120.93%

Chancers Bet = AW Maidens - RC1 greater than 84% - Top Rated horse with an LTO of less than 42 days.

where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 42 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 84%

Selection = Back to ISP - Lingfield (AW) - 14:00:00 - Two Smart (5)

Races (over last year): 33 Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 60.61% ROI: 156.98%

Unfortunately, Two Smart (the odds on favourite), came 2nd.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Dutching

As I admitted above...

I am still working on the Dutching investigation but,

I was sort of distracted and went off at a tangent and started looking at the performance of the non-published races.

There should be an update post today.

Un-rated Races

If I can't rate more than 39% of all runners in a race, I currently don't publish the ratings for that race.

There was only one un-rated race yesterday.

Wetherby 12:50

race_time race_course horse_name R4
12:50:00 Wetherby Billy Twyford 0.00
12:50:00 Wetherby If In Doubt 0.00
12:50:00 Wetherby Sego Success 3.59
12:50:00 Wetherby Thom Thumb 0.00
12:50:00 Wetherby Volo Mio 0.00
12:50:00 Wetherby Walk On Al 3.67

As you can see, I was only able to rate two horses in the race (33.33% of the 6 runners) and, thus, didn't publish the race.

Walk on Al was the top rated horse and Sego Success was the 2nd rated horse.

Sego Success won at 4.5 ISP (4.91 BSP.)

Walk on Al came 3rd at 4.0 ISP (4.3 BSP.)

Now, I have to do a lot of analysis on historical data before I do anything but,

These races might be interesting Dutching possibilities.

If I do publish these races then they'll have an RC0 of 4 and I'll put the race detail line on the ratings (the line that shows the course, the time and do forth) in italics to mark them out from the other races.

As I mentioned before, this won't affect the Builder or any systems that you have as that will default to only using races which don't have an RC0 of 4 (unless you specifically ask the Builder to include those races.)

As always, I'm interested in your comments on this.

Oh, one last point - when I determined the 40% cut off limit (for published races) back in January 2013, there wasn't much logic or maths involved.

Or rather, the maths that I used wasn't as intensive as it could have been (mainly due to a lack of data.)

Now that I have nearly two years of data, I can revisit the cut off point and see if the 40% limit is statistically relevant.

Today

Five meetings today.

The 6am test ratings have just come out and they look good, with 34 rated races.

Nothing stands out (from a quick look) and so I'm expecting a similar day as we had yesterday.

However, I'll be watching the 12:25 at Newbury as A.P.McCoy is riding Jollyallan and is top rated (with a confidence level of 200%) in a 5 horse race.

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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