Morning News

Good morning...

The run of decent results just goes on and on.

We're currently running with a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 27.83% (compared to 23.71% for April 2014) and I think that that's the best monthly strike rate that we've ever had.

I do have an explanation for why this might be.

And I've been busy on the Builder,

So, the Winter Upgrades are getting nearer to getting finished.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.57%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 114.39 units returned to 125 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -8.49%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 36.58 units returned to 42 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -12.9%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 53.91 units returned to 42 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, 28.36%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.9 units returned to 41 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, -41.71%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Fontwell 13:40:00 - The CSF paid £1.93

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Fontwell 14:40:00 - The CSF paid £15.75

Newbury 15:25:00 - The CSF paid £51.95

Fontwell 15:45:00 - The CSF paid £15.31

Southwell 19:25:00 - The CSF paid £14.20

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Fontwell 15:15:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £65.40

Southwell 17:25:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £6.40

Winners

From the 43 rated races there were 24 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 7 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Ayr	14:00	Aristo Du Plessis (6)	9.00	10.00
Fontwell	15:15	Xaarcet (2)	6.50	7.58
Newbury	15:25	Desert Force (8)	15.00	15.68
Tipperary	16:05	Hard Bought (7)	17.00	17.05
Ayr	16:45	Wicked Spice (1)	5.50	6.39
Southwell	19:25	Rocky Rebel (6)	6.00	6.60
Dundalk (AW)	21:05	Mozetta (11)	7.00	7.58

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Winter Upgrades

The Builder

I've started putting the last of the winter upgrades into place.

The Lay option on the Builder now shows monthly, course and race type statistics.

I now need to roll these options out tot he other backing options on the Builder but,

Today it is more important that I implement a new button on the Builder so that, when clicked, it will send you an email with all qualifying selections over the last exact year, as a spreadsheet file.

This is pretty important to me as people are starting to ask me for these extract files and, thus, this will save me time.

The Portfolio

I have selected a system to add to my portfolio; this will be the first of many.

It's a very high ROI system based upon Irish races and I just need to due a last bit of due diligence before adding it to the pot.

I'll be adding more systems over the next week or so.

Self Learning Ratings...

Now, yesterday I mentioned that the recent performance of the ratings has caused me to more than slightly raise my eyebrows.

That we're currently running with a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 27.83% (compared to 23.71% for April 2014) doesn't just show a 4.06% increase in strike rate over this time last year; it is also a 17.12% proportional increase...

Which is kind of massive.

However, it can't all be down to the ratings being self learning.

One of the members emailed me to suggest some explanations for the behaviour (thanks Mr D.)

The only explanations that I can come up with are...

The ground is much better (goodish) not the normal heavy ground that is normal this time of year.

The horses are more forward due to the relatively mild winter.

With the ever increasing amount of AW racing, there are more "fitter" horses racing at this time of the year, compared to previous years.

Also the quality of the AW racing is continually getting better, therefore, more dual purpose horses (turf and AW.)

And that all sort of makes sense to me.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 49 rated races from seven meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards