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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsI was glued to the computer yesterday...

Really!

So much number crunching but, it was kind of nice watching the results coming in.

And, until the late races at Kempton. I don't think that there was one single race that I had to put a question mark against.

I just love days like that!

I was busy answering emails, working on the Dutching strategy and doing a lot of work on unrated races.

Now, as Jill constantly reminds me...

Men don't know how to multi-task but,

If she is right then, yesterday, I was a real woman!

Yesterday's Results

A decent day, as you can see from the Results.

A strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 22.58% is decent enough.

Once again, it was the late AW at Kempton where we fell down.

Forecasts

There was one forecast yesterday.

Uttoxeter 12:45 - The CSF paid £2.09

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 31 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - Five of these were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Uttoxeter 12:15 Rose of the World 7.0 8.13
Taunton 13:10 Earthmoves 6.50 7.0
Taunton 14:55 Floral Spinner 6.50 7.2
Kempton 18.55 Strawberry Martini 8.0 8.2
Kempton 19.25 MIshaal 6.50 7.46

Comments...

In the first race of the day (the 12:15 at Uttoxeter), we got the first three (from the top three rated horses), just in the wrong order.

In the next race (the 12:20 at Thurles), our top two rated horses were non-runners. The Live Ratings promoted Dronmea as the new top rated horse - he came 3rd at 21.0 ISP (68.24 BSP)

In the next race (the one that stood out for me, yesterday morning - the 12:25 at Newbury), A.P.McCoy did the decent thing and won.

In the 12:45 at Uttoxeter we got 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the right order. I didn't record it as a Tricast as it was only a 5 horse race.

In the 13:20 at Uttoxeter (an unrated race), the ratings actually chose Top Totti as the only rated horse. Unfortunately, he was a non-runner.

In the 14:20 at Taunton, our top rated horse was a non-runner.

The live ratings chose the following...

screenshot-focusratings.com 2014-11-27 17-47-27

Cloudy Spirit came third at 1.53 ISP (1.58 BSP)

Come on Annie cane first at 3.25 ISP (3.82 BSP)

Bolin Judith came second at 8.5 ISP (10.0 BSP)

In the 15:40 at Thurles our first and second rated horses became non-runners.

The live ratings made Westerner Point our new 3rd rated horse and he went onto come 2nd at a price of 21.0 ISP (31.31 BSP)

In the 15:45 at Newbury we didn't rate the race because we could only rate one out of the four horses.

However, Yanworth was the only horse that I could rate and he went onto win at 2.1 ISP (2.2 BSP)

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (and a Chancer's Bet)...

Bankers Bet = UK Recent Returners

where R4 Status = 1 and where the Race is Not a Handicap Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and the Race\'s RC1 is greater than 70% and where Position last time out = Winner and where Country = UK and Runners was equal to or less than 12 and the Horse\'s Confidence is greater than 110% and Horse was NOT a Distance Winner and Horse was NOT a Course and Distance Winner and Horse was a Clear Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Uttoxeter - 12:45:00 - Zeroeshadesofgrey (2)

Races (over last year): 7 Wins: 7 Strike Rate: 100.00% ROI: 198.00%

Chancers Bet = High RC2 - AW and NH Hurdles

where R4 Status = 1 and RC2 was more than 95% and the Race Type is All Weather or the Race Type is NH - Hurdles

Selection = Back to ISP - Newbury - 15:15:00 - Daneking (3)

Races (over last year): 11 Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 36.36% ROI: 81.08%

Our Banker's Bet won (and that's a nice result for me - I was starting to get worried!)

Zeroshadesofgrey won at 1.52 ISP (1.62 BSP.)

Out Chancer's Bet came nowhere.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Good News

On Tuesday I indicated that I wasn't too happy with Monday's results.

After all, we only got a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 27.78%

But, SP emailed me to let me know that I'd got it wrong!

This is what he had to say...

Hi Keith

You do yourself an injustice about yesterday!

What about the 3.25 at Ludlow where you had the exacta which paid £486.90 ! I had 50p on it and was quite happy with my £243!

Actually I really fancied Tisfreetdream to run a big race and it so neally won. I was amazed to see it at 50-1 and had a fiver each way on it.

I decided my luck was in and for some reason, mainly because it was with a new trainer, I backed Celestine Abbey at Wolverhampton and that won at 50-1!

I also got the exacta with Laura B in that race and that paid £162 for 50p !

Oh for a few more days of inspiration like that!

But you really should take credit for the Ludlow 3.25 exacta !!!

Thanks for your efforts. Just love what you do, fantastic service !

Best Wishes

SP

Any other business

And finally...

Dutching

I have been doing some more work on Dutching and, rather than waffle about it here, have published a post to show what I have found.

The post may be seen at... Dutching - A Strategy - Stage 2

Unrated Races

I've written a post about unrated races - you can read it here... Unrated Races

I've already explained our two unrated races yesterday so I won't waffle about it here.

Please read that post and have a think about it.

If you have any issues, then please let me know.

As always, I'm interested in your comments on this.

Today

Five meetings today.

I've ran the test ratings at 3:30am and they looked good, with 31 rated races.

The second race of the day is a worry as the second and third rated horses have the same R4 and thus, both have a confidence level of 100%. However, the top rated horse has a confidence of 140% which makes it stand out - still, a race to be careful about.

Again, in the 14:55 at Mussleburgh, the top two rated horses have the same R4 (and are, thus, both top rated.) A race to avoid, perhaps.

My stand out race is the 15:35 at Doncaster where there is a unique jockey and unique trainer; it's only a bumper but Rainy City has a confidence level of 200% (it has to be said that that could change with the real ratings.)

And that's it - nothing else really throws up any warning lights.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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