Morning News

Good morning...

On the face of it...

Not such a great day, yesterday.

However,

One member has suggested that I take a look at the full print out...

The one that lists all races, including those that are not normally rated.

We got 3 winners from the normal ratings;

From the full print out we got 8 winners!

So, guess what I am going to be looking at today.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15.79%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 15%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.01 units returned to 59 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -45.75%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.6 units returned to 19 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -38.95%

2nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 4.53 units returned to 20 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -77.35%

3nd Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 15.88 units returned to 20 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, -20.6%

Forecasts

There was 1 forecast yesterday.

Musselburgh 16:50:00 - The CSF paid £8.82

Reverse Forecasts

There was 1 reverse forecast yesterday.

Musselburgh 16:15:00 - The CSF paid £2.40

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Doncaster 14:40:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £189.40

Musselburgh 16:15:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £3.10

Winners

From the 41 rated races there were 7 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 2 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Doncaster	14:40	Grand Liaison (2)	6.00	7.00
Killarney	17:05	Monasteradenpauric (9)	13.00	19.86

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 42 rated races from seven meetings.

Yesterday was a bit of a busy day for me as I have to do a live "Exception Report" as the previous day wasn't very good. This means that I have to go through the ratings for every race to determine if there are any errors.

I haven't made any changes to the core code as I've been working offline on my new server doing some analysis; thus, I have to put the disappointing results as some sort of compensation for the great results in April.

Today I shall be doing the same but I'll also be looking at those races which aren't shown on the normal ratings.

As I've mentioned before (a couple of times), when I made the decision to only show the ratings for those races where I can rate 40% or more of all runners, it was a sort of arbitrary decision.

Perhaps it's time to rethink that decision.

Obviously, this is more of a reporting thing as you already have the choice whether to look at those "unrated" races (options 4,5 and 20 on the morning ratings email.)

It's a question of perception, really.

If I can only rate 3 horses in a 10 horse race then that race is unrated as I felt (two and a half years ago) that there wasn't enough information about that race.

However, it could also be argued that I have turned a 10 horse race into a 3 horse race.

I really don't want to try and "massage" the numbers (I don't do that smoke and mirrors stuff) but, as I am already showing the ratings for the previously unrated races, perhaps I should show the results for those races as an addition to the results that I currently waffle on about at the moment.

I think that I need to take a long walk around the lake to try and reflect on this.

Once again, I don't want to try and fiddle the numbers (from day one I've reported the actual results, good or bad) but, at the same time, I don't want to hide potential winners from you.

Before my walk I'll do the analysis to see if yesterday was a one off or if it's part of an underlying trend.

Those of you who normally take a look at option 1 on the morning ratings email might want to print out option 4 as well to see if you have any ideas about these unrated races.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards