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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning...

Another reasonable day, yesterday.

And our Banker's Bet won!

Whilst attempting to build a flat pack bookcase (me and flat pack furniture don't really get along) and working on my server, I was watching the results coming in.

And something that has been niggling me for quite a while started niggling me again.

You see, I always think about picking winners but I'm aware that place betting on Betfair often makes more sense.

And, looking at the results, I noticed a trend occurring.

Yesterday, if you had place bet on Betfair on the top three rated horse with the highest yield, you would have you would have got a result in 21 of the 41 races. And you would have 60.47 points returned to 41 points staked (5% commission deducted.) So, basically a 50% strike rate and a profit on investment of 50% as well.

That's a pretty good starting point for a strategy without any filters.

Today is another bank holiday in France but I shall be looking at this possible strategy to see what it has done historically and which filters might improve the strike rate and profitability.

So, let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.83%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.83%.

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 111.54 units returned to 120 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -7.05%

Top Rated Horse - There were 11 top rated winners. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 35.15 units returned to 41 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -14.27%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 second rated winners. If you had blindly backed the second rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.26 units returned to 38 units staked. The Second Rated Profit Index was, thus, -17.74%

3nd Rated Horse - There were 7 third rated winners. If you had blindly backed the third rated horse in all of the races you would have had 45.13 units returned to 41 units staked. The Third Rated Profit Index was, thus, 10.07%

Forecasts

There were 3 forecasts yesterday.

York 15:45:00 - The CSF paid £2.15

Naas 17:35:00 - The CSF paid £5.03

Bath 19:45:00 - The CSF paid £2.58

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Kempton 14:30:00 - The CSF paid £7.26

Bath 17:45:00 - The CSF paid £10.14

Bath 20:15:00 - The CSF paid £7.58

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

York 15:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £5.00

Bath 19:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £6.90

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Kempton 16:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £25.20

Kempton 17:05:00 - The Trifecta paid £10.90

Perth 18:55:00 - The Tricast/Trifecta paid £46.10

Winners

From the 41 rated races there were 27 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Kempton 15:35 Mr Fickle (8) 15.00 26.00
York 16:20 Udododontu (13) 9.00 10.22
York 17:20 Libran (4) 7.50 7.60
Newcastle 17:25 Bonjour Steve (5) 10.00 9.88
Naas 19:35 Novis Adventus (9) 6.00 7.69

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Claimers - big priced boys - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Claimer and Horse = Male (Stallion, Colt or Gelding) and the Forecast Starting Price was more than 3

Selection = Back to ISP - Newcastle - 15:55:00 - The Osteopath (5)

Races (over last year): 23 Wins: 9 Strike Rate: 39.13% ROI: 143.22% AV SP: 3.66

The Osteopath won @ 3.0 ISP (3.2 BSP.)

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 31 rated races from six meetings.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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