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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsHennessy Gold Cup day today and...

The early ratings have come up with some interesting contenders.

But then, what do I know about horse racing?

I'll reveal what the early ratings say towards the end of this post but I'll start off by taking a look at what happened yesterday rather than what's going to happen today.

Well, what a start to the day!

It's wonderful to get the first three horses in the right order in the first race!

And, to finish it all off...

We got the Combination Tricast in the last race of the day - the 21:10 at Dundalk.

The Tricast paid £717.42 (for a £6 stake.)

That's what I like, an end to end service.

Yesterday's Results

A decent day, as you can see from the Results.

A strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 26.47% is quite satisfying.

Forecasts

There were four forecasts yesterday.

Uttoxeter 12:45 - The CSF paid £2.09

Doncaster 15:35 - The CSF paid £2.19

Dundalk 18:40 - The CSF paid £13.16

Dundalk 19:10 - The CSF paid £3.50

Tricast

There was one tricast yesterday.

Mussleburgh 12:05 - The Trifecta paid £9.90

Winners

From the 34 rated races there were 16 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - Three of these were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Doncaster 12:15 Tales of Milan 10.0 9.75
Mussleburgh 14:55 Endeavour 6.5 7.05
Dundalk 21:10 Minot Street 8.0 9.43

Comments...

1). As I mentioned above...

In the first race of the day (the 12:05 at Mussleburgh), we got the first three in the right order. The Trifecta paid £9.90.

2). The 12:25 at Newbury was unrated as I could only rate 2 of the 7 horses.

12-25

Karezak was top rated with an R4 of 3.45 and Mick Jazz was 2nd rated with an R4 of 1.23

Karezak came 2nd and Mick Jazz came 3rd.

3). The 12:45 at Doncaster was unrated as I could only rate 6 of the 18 runners.

12-45

None of the top three rated horses from that race came in the first 3

4). My Stand Out Race (from the very early morning ratings) was the 15:35 at Doncaster. I mentioned that...

here is a unique jockey and unique trainer; it’s only a bumper but Rainy City has a confidence level of 200% (it has to be said that that could change with the real ratings.)

As it turned out, Rainy City won; quite easily, as it turned out - I think that it was by 18 lengths.

However, you need to understand that, when I make comments about Stand Out Races at some ungodly hour of the morning, I'm dealing with very early data.

Thus, when I mentioned that that in the 14:55 at Mussleburgh, the two top rated horses had the same R4, by the time the normal ratings were produced, that had all changed (the eventual top rated horse ended up winning the race.)

So, please don't put too much faith in my early morning musings - they're just musings from someone who knows absolutely nothing about horse racing, based on a very early set of the Ratings data.

However, that won't stop me from passing on my ideas, based upon what I see when I see the very early ratings.

5). The 15:45 at Newbury was unrated as I could only rate 4 of the 10 runners (there must have been a non-runner as that is a borderline race.)

15-45

Out top rated horse came third.

6). We got the Combination Tricast in the 16:25 at Wolverhampton - The Tricast paid £40.18 (for a £6 stake.)

7). In the 17:25 at Wolverhampton our 3rd rated horse was a non-runner. The Live Ratings brought in Royal Battalion as the new 3rd rated horse and he went on to come second.

8). As I've already mentioned, we got the Combination Tricast in the 21:10 at Dundalk - The Tricast paid £717.42 (for a £6 stake.)

The Portfolio

There was no Banker's Bet yesterday (and, thus, no Chancer's Bet)...

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Dutching

I have been lazy and have done no more work on my investigations into Dutching.

I expect to get back to this next week.

Unrated Races

Based upon the response to my post about... Unrated Races, I have decided to go ahead, but in a way that keeps everyone happy.

If you have any issues, then please let me know.

As always, I'm interested in your comments on this.

Now, I'm taking the weekend off.

I'm starting to go a bit goggle-eyed with all the spreadsheet work that I've been doing and I need to have a think about how I schedule the Winter Upgrades.

Also, someone suggested I take a look at James Willoughby's musings and, I have to say that I'm addicted.

So, I'm going to copy his blog, The Figures Never Lie to my tablet and go and sit on the terrace behind the PMU (assuming that it is as lovely and warm as it was yesterday) and study it in detail.

From what I've seen so far, anyone who can write a blog post titled... Nonlinear dynamics of racehorse ratings: how upside can dominate exposed ability sounds like my kind of guy.

Today

Six meetings today.

I've ran the test ratings early and they looked good, with 43 rated races.

The 12:25 at Fairyhouse is a worry as the second and third rated horses have the same R4 and thus, both have a confidence level of 100%. one to be careful about, perhaps.

The same occurs in the 18:15 at Wolverhampton.

My stand out race is the 15:40 at Fairyhouse where there is a unique jockey; Like yesterday, it's only a bumper but Royal Caviar has a confidence level of 200% (once again, it has to be said that that could change with the real ratings.) He hasn't run for a year but he has a rating of 4.48 compared to the 2nd rated horse, Round Tower, who only has a rating of 1.69.

I suppose that most people will be thinking about Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury 3pm.)

The early ratings show Annacoty, Smad Place and Unioniste (in that order) but that may all change when the actual ratings come out.

It's interesting that Unioniste is running at a lower rating than his average.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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