Morning News

Good morning...

Back to normal, yesterday...

With an acceptable strike rate but nothing to really shout about.

So,

Instead of shouting about the strike rate I want to waffle on about the Live Ratings and my potential strategy that I mentioned last week.

And there might even be a joke, as well...

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 28.26%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.74% from all 46 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 79.28 units returned to 127 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -37.57%

Top Rated Horse - There were 10 winners from the top rated horses from 40 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 26.19 units returned to 40 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -34.53%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the second rated horses from 45 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.09 units returned to 45 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -37.58%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 25 units returned to 42 units staked. The 3nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -40.48%

Forecasts

There were 5 forecasts yesterday.

Cork 18:05:00 - The CSF paid £5.27

Musselburgh 19:10:00 - The CSF paid £4.78

Worcester 19:20:00 - The CSF paid £5.66

Worcester 20:20:00 - The CSF paid £1.98

Musselburgh 20:40:00 - The CSF paid £9.31

Reverse Forecasts

There were 3 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Bath 15:15:00 - The CSF paid £2.09

Bath 15:50:00 - The CSF paid £7.23

Goodwood 16:00:00 - The CSF paid £7.78

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Worcester 20:20:00 - The Trifecta paid £2.00

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 4 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Bath 15:15:00 - The Trifecta paid £8.60

Haydock 15:40:00 - The Trifecta paid £50.60

Goodwood 16:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £42.00

Cork 20:35:00 - The Trifecta paid €14.40

Winners

From the 45 rated races there were 22 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 3 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Bath	14:40	Kittens Red (4)	5.50	5.62
Bath	16:25	French Encore (1)	15.00	21.50
Musselburgh	20:10	Gabrial The Duke (3)	6.00	6.8

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet (but not a Chancer's Bet) yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Big Field Maiden Favs - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Runners was equal to or more than 16 and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Cork - 19:35:00 - Jacobean (13)

Races (over last year): 18 Wins: 11 Strike Rate: 61.11% ROI: 159.50% AV SP: 2.61

Jacobean was a non runner.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Live Ratings...

Obviously, it's the silly season with far too many (for my liking) non-runners.

They really make a mockery of the ratings and don't really do much for the average punter.

This is what one member said to me yesterday...

Yet again, there were 43 non runners today, (this madness will continue throughout the flat season! ) should you want to give the "live ratings" a plug!

It can be turned to our advantage, as it resulted in 4 "new" top rated winners (based upon the "full print out, all races!)

7/2 15/2 6/5 7/4

Which is none to shabby!!

Strategy...

My investigations into the potential of Place Betting the top three rated horse that has the highest yield of the top three rated horses continued yesterday.

And it seems to show that the strategy works best for the early races.

This seems to make sense as the forecast price (and, thus, the yield) is calculated at 9am and is probably more accurate for the morning races than it would be for the later ones.

So, going through it page by page;

Using the normal ratings (option 1 on the daily ratings email)...

After the first 6 races we had 5 wins (the horse had a Betfair place payout in other words) from the first 6 races (there was one unrated race on the first page of the ratings.) And 30.62 units would have been returned for 6 units staked.

At the end of the second page we had 7 wins from 13 races and 37.39 units returned to 13 units staked.

By the end of the third page we had 8 wins from 20 races and 39.98 units returned to 20 units staked.

I stopped there but the results certainly seem interesting.

The next time we have a quiet day's racing (oh, how I long for a quiet day's racing!) I'll apply the same strategy but calculate the yield from the actual prices available rather than my 9am forecast prices.

I'll also create another spreadsheet but do so in such a way that the races are grouped in lumps of 7 races (in time order) to try to show if the early races are more profitable than the later ones.

I know that one day's results isn't enough to prove a strategy but you do need to remember that this is something that has been niggling me for a number of months.

Certainly, I'd be happy with 6 or 7 bets a day (the first page of the ratings, in other words) if, as they did yesterday, they return me a strike rate of 83.33% and a profit of 8.2 times my original stakes!

Something to make you chuckle...

Subject: Licence Report Card

Don't underestimate the cleverness of kids !!!

MUM'S DRIVER'S LICENCE
A mother is driving her little girl to her friend's house for a play day.
'Mummy,' the little girl asks, 'how old are you?'
'Honey, you are not supposed to ask a lady her age,' the mother replied. 'It's not polite.'
'OK', the little girl says,
'What colour was your hair 2 years ago?
'Now really,' the mother says, 'those are personal questions and are really none of your business.'
Undaunted, the little girl asks, 'Why did you and Daddy get a divorce?'
'That's enough questions, young lady! Honestly!'
The exasperated mother drives away as the two friends begin to play.

'My Mum won't tell me anything about herself,' the little girl says to her friend.
'WELL' says the friend, 'all you need to do is look at her DRIVER'S LICENSE'.
It's like our report cards, it has everything on it.'

Later that night the little girl says to her mother, 'I know how old you are. You are 46.'
The mother is surprised and asks, 'How did you find that out?'
'I also know that you used to have brown hair.'
The mother is past surprised and shocked now.
'How in Heaven's name did you find that out?'
'And,' the little girl says triumphantly,
'I also know why you and daddy got a divorce.'
'Oh really' says the mother......’Why?’
'Mum... it's all on your driver's license, you only got an 'F' for sex

Once again, many thanks to David O. for supplying the jokes.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 46 rated races from seven meetings.

It's yet another Bank Holiday weekend here in France and I'm going to be making the most of it.

That does mean that I'll be behind on replying to emails but I promise to catch up next week.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards