Morning News – 18/01/2021

Good morning...

I spent most of the weekend working on my dutching strategy based upon R8 (and I don't mind if I never see a spreadsheet every again!)

But first, I decided to ratify R8.

My master database table now has a new column which, logically, I call R8.

Every race has an R8 number.

If the top rated horse (on Focus Ratings R4) is not the top rated horse on Advance Ratings then the R8 for that race is 0.

If the top rated horse (on Focus Ratings R4) is also the top rated horse on Advance Ratings then the R8 for that race is 1.

If the top rated horse (on Focus Ratings R4) is also the top rated horse on Advance Ratings and the second rated horse (on Focus Ratings R4) is also the second rated horse on Advance Ratings then the R8 for that race is 2.

And so on.

For the dutching strategy I have chosen every R8=2 race.

This means that both Focus Ratings and Advance Ratings agree on the ratings for the top rated horse but, most importantly, disagree on the third rated horse.

This might mean that the third rated horse is a bit of a donkey and, thus, unlikely to win the race.

Just to make sure, I only chose those races where the third rated horse had a confidence of 94% or less.

I am still working through the spreadsheet...

I am taking out any race where either the top rated horse or the second rated horse is a non-runner as we are not able to dutch just one horse in a race.

I am aware that some people might just bet on the remaining horse to half of their total stake but that seems a bit unmathimatical to me.

There are some races where I haven't captured the BSP (possibly due to Betfair problems) so, for those races I have to manually look up the BSPs and add them in manually.

Having worked all weekend, starting from the 1st of January 2016 I am now up to the end of October 2019 and...

Starting with a £100 bank and betting to £10 level stakes, it looks like we end up with a bank of about £500 over the 5 year period.

Now, a fivefold multiplication of the bank might not sound like a lot but, you have to bear in mind that this is with no filters applied.

I haven't even looked at filtering by number of runners or race type etc.

An obvious filter, just from looking at the spreadsheet, is to limit bets to a certain range of total BSPs.

On my spreadsheet I have one column which shows the BSPs of the top two rated horses added together.

Now, if that total is between about 8.0 and 18.0 we make far more profit.

This seems to have some logic to me but I'm not sure if a betting bot could use that filter so I am going to have to see if I can apply a similar filter based upon the total forecast SP which we know as soon as the ratings are published every morning.

So, more work to do but I should get the spreadsheet finished at some point today.

Focus Ratings

Yesterday's Results

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 46.15%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 42.86%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 42.86% from all 14 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 63.37 units returned to 39 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 62.49%

Top Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the top rated horses from 13 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29.58 units returned to 13 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 127.54%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 1 winners from the second rated horses from 12 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 1.29 units returned to 12 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -89.25%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 14 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.5 units returned to 14 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 132.14%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 4 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 0 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 0%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 0 units returned to 4 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -100%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 4 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 3 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 75%

Investment Betting

There were two Investment Betting selections yesterday...

Punchestown - 12:50 - Envoi Allen - 1st @ 1.50 ISP (1.57 BSP)

Punchestown - 14:50 - Hell On Earth - CO

EarlyBird Ratings

1st @ 1.50 ISP (1.57 BSP)
There was one Diamonds and Gold selection yesterday...

Punchestown - 13:20 - Master Mcshee - NR

Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html

Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meeting a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

There is a meeting at Happy Valley on Wednesday.

I will be compiling the ratings for that today.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings had an average day yesterday.

12.50 - Punchestown - Envoi Allen - 1st @ 1.50 ISP (1.57 BSP)

1.20 - Punchestown - Power Of Pause - 3rd

Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

31st October 2020 – Down Royal (IRE) – 14:25 – Ladbrooks Champion Chase – Grade 1

1st November 2020 – Naas (IRE) – 14:35 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Athasi Stakes – Group 3

3rd November 2020 – Flemmington (AUS) – 16:00 – Lexus Melbourne Cup – Group 1

22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1

23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

Place Profits

Selections - New System

There are no selections today.

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

There are no selections today.

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

There are no selections today.

Original System - 200% Conf

There are no selections today.

I have updated the results and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

A number of systems are combined to create system selections.

Click on the image to see it full size.

Something to make you smile...

The Sermon...

A minister decided that a visual demonstration would add emphasis to his Sunday sermon.

Four worms were placed into four separate jars.

The first worm was put into a container of alcohol.

The second worm was put into a container of cigarette smoke.

The third worm was put into a container of chocolate syrup.

The fourth worm was put into a container of good clean soil.

At the conclusion of the sermon, the Minister reported the following results:

The first worm in alcohol - Dead.

The second worm in cigarette smoke - Dead.

Third worm in chocolate syrup - Dead.

Fourth worm in good clean soil - Alive.

So the Minister asked the congregation - What can you learn from this demonstration?

A little old woman in the back quickly raised her hand and said,

"As long as you drink, smoke and eat chocolate, you won't have worms."

Don't you just love little old ladies?!?!?!

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards