Morning News – 18/06/2021

Good morning...

Today I'd like to explain how I intend the new Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio Service to work.

To do this, I am going to shamelessly use the email that I sent out to those Focus Ratings members who have asked to be on the mailing list for these selections (sorry, this service is only available for Focus Ratings members although I am working on a special offer for members of my other services.)

Good Morning

Here are today's R9 Portfolio selections...

Race 1:

Ripon - 14:15 - Harlem Soul - Win Bet - 1st @ 2.81 BSP

Race 2:

Leopardstown - 19:30 - Quiet Desire - Place Bet - 4th

Leopardstown - 19:30 - Lunar Power - Place Bet - 2nd @ 1.24 BSP

Race 3:

Ffos Las - 19:50 - Jersey Wonder - Win Bet - 2nd

Ffos Las - 19:50 - Jersey Wonder - Place Bet - 2nd @ 1.40 BSP

Race 4:

Lingfield - 20:40 - Damned Elusive - Win Bet - 2nd

Lingfield - 20:40 - Damned Elusive - Place Bet - 2nd @ 1.55 BSP

Lingfield - 20:40 - Ladywood - Place Bet - 4th

In the 20:40 at Lingfield I was hoping that Horsefly (the 4th rated horse) would be a Lay Bet but...

It seems that Class 5 All Weather Handicaps are blindly profitable for 4th rated R9 horses. They have a 20% strike rate and, at the anticipated BSP the Reward/Risk Ratio, is less than zero.

In other words, you have a 75% chance of a successful Lay Bet which would give you 0.98 points profit but you have a 25% risk losing 3 points. The Reward/Risk Ratio is 0.98 and I need a Reward/Risk Ratio of at least 1.1 for a Lay Bet. To put it simply, there has to be more Reward than Risk.

Either tomorrow or Saturday every race will have a 4R number. 4R stands for Race Reward/Risk Ratio.

This will help identify which races to concentrate on.

Now, you are free to bet 1 point on each of today's 8 selections but, early next week, I shall come up with a staking plan based upon the best race of the day and the best two races of the day.

Let's say you are betting to £2 stakes (£2 a point) and, every day, you have 10 points to play with.

Let's say that Race 4 is the best race of the day and Race 3 is the second best race of the day.

If you choose to concentrate only on the best race of the day you will have £20 to spread across the 3 bets.

Just from a quick look I imagine that the advised stakes would be 2.50 points (£5) on the Win Bet for the top rated horse, 5 points (£10) on the Place Bet for the top rated horse and 2.50 points (£5) on the Place Bet for the second rated horse.

In practice the numbers wouldn't be as clean as that.

So, in a way, it's a bit like a Dutch Bet but, unlike conventional Dutching, all three of your Dutch Bets can win (unlike conventional Dutching where, for one of your Dutch Bets to win, the other two have to lose.)

If you choose to bet on the top two races of the day you would be splitting your £20 over the 5 bets on those two races. But, you wouldn't assign £10 to one race and £10 to the other race. Your £20 would be split across the 2 races according to the Reward/Risk Ratio for each of the 5 individual bets.

In a way, it's a bit like Dutching multiple races rather than Dutching multiple horses in a single race.

It'll all make more sense when I have some real world examples to show you.

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Now, although these R9 Portfolio selections are free to Focus Ratings members, if you are a member of Intelligent Betting, EarlyBird Ratings or Place Profits, I will give you the option to sign up to these selections at £10 as opposed the normal £25 a month for this service.

I'll let you know more about that early next week.

I should say that this service is very similar to the way I bet on horse racing in France (where I live.)

Living in France I'm not allowed to lay bets on Betfair but I do have a number of multiple bets that aren't available on Betfair.

Thus I can bet on two horses to come first and second in the right order or, two horses to come first and second in any order; the cost of those bets are the same.

Obviously, I can do the same thing with three horses (or, even, four or five horses.)

Those tend to be my "Hail Mary" bets.

Then again...

I can't Lay bet horses in France and that hurts as...

If you are sure that Black Beauty is going to win the race (he's an odds on favourite) then you should be equally sure that Speedy Simon (the second rated horse) is going to lose the race.

If you're going to back Black Beauty to win, you should also, realistically, lay Speedy Simon to lose; to level stakes you'll make a higher profit on the lay bet on Speedy Simon than the win bet on Black Beauty. By adding a Place Bet to both horses you should be able to hedge your bet so that, whatever the outcome (assuming that both horses either win or place,) you make a profit. By varying your stakes according to the Reward/Risk ratio for each individual bet you will maximise your profits and, more importantly, minimise your losses.

It turns out that yesterday wasn't such a great day for the R9 Portfolio selections but...

We didn't lose too much and I'm very very glad that Horsefly wasn't a Lay Bet as the bugger won at 3.15 BSP.

The results are a bit deceiving as I am showing them to level/equal stakes whereas, from next week, we will be using advised stakes. Thus the Place Bets will generally be bet to higher stakes than the Win Bets and, had we done that yesterday, we might even have made a profit.

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Task List...

In order to be honest and truly transparent with you...

I will now be publishing my task list on the Morning News.

You will be able to see what I am working on and, more importantly, what progress I am making.

Here are the current tasks...

T01). Work out a number of strategies to utilise R9 and provide Focus Rating members free Portfolio Betting selections across a number of different betting strategies (win backing, place backing, dutching, laying and, the other thing that I described that I don't know what it is called) on a daily basis.

T02). For Compass Ratings, display, on screen and via a email PDF, the twice weekly updated trainer/jockey win/place strike rates.

T03). For Compass Ratings, complete the eBook that explains all the weird and wonderful things that I have learned about Hong Kong Horse racing.

T04). Complete PaperTradeIt.com - a free site where you can privately log your bets and get Strike Rate, POI (to ISP and BSP) data and losing run analysis on those bets.

I'm trying to knock off the easy/quick jobs first in order to reduce the size of the list; the size of the list scares me sometimes and, believe me, I have twice as many jobs on the Admin/BAU (Business As Usual - things like automated scripts, backups and server log file analysis - stuff that all website owners have to do) task list to get through as well.

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Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 42.11%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 40%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 18.6% from all 43 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 57.25 units returned to 55 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 4.09%

Top Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the top rated horses from 19 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 31.37 units returned to 19 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 65.11%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 0 winners from the second rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 0 units returned to 18 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -100%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 25.88 units returned to 18 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 43.78%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 7 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 3 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 42.86%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 6.91 units returned to 7 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -1.29%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 7 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 4 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 57.14%

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Investment Betting

There were four Investment Betting selections (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Chelmsford - 13:40 - Pure Charmer - 2nd

Ripon - 16:00 - True Courage - 1st @3.50 ISP (3.95 BSP)

Chelmsford - 17:10 - Percy's Pride - 1st @ 3.50 ISP (3.90 BSP)

Ffos Las - 20:20 - Equus Dancer - 1st @ 1.03 ISP (1.04 BSP)

This is what the recent proofed results look like...

Click on the image to see it full size.

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EarlyBird Ratings

There were no Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selections yesterday...

This is what the recent proofed results look like...

Click on the image to see it full size.

Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html

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Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meetings a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

There is a meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday.

The ratings for that meeting will be complied and sent out today.

If you are not a Compass Ratings member (it's free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Rating and Place Profits members - you just have to ask to be added to the list) but want to try it out, send me an email.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

5.30 - Lingfield - Greycious Girl - 12th

6.40 - Lingfield - Campachoochoo - NR

8.20 - Ffos Las - Equus Dancer - 1st @ 1.03 ISP (1.04 BSP)

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Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

16th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 1 (5 races rated.)

17th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 2 (5 races rated.)

18th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 3 (4 races rated.)

19th March 2021 – Cheltenham - Day 4 (5 races rated.)

27th March 2021 – Doncaster – 15:10 – Unibet Lincoln – Class 2

New - 10th April – 2021 – Aintree – 17:15 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase – Class 1

22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1

23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Place Profits

Selections - New System

Ripon - 14:50 - Benadalid - 6th
Ripon - 16:00 - True Courage - 1st @ 1.55
Lingfield - 18:05 - Silken Petals - 2nd @ 1.82
Ffos Las - 20:20 - Equus Dancer - 1st @ 0

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Ripon - 13:15 - Mot And The Messer - 1st @ 1.37
Chelmsford - 17:10 - Percys Pride - 1st @ 1.38
Lingfield - 18:05 - Silken Petals - 2nd @ 1.82
Ffos Las - 20:20 - Equus Dancer - 1st @ 0

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Ffos Las - 20:20 - Equus Dancer - 1st @ 0

Original System (200% Confidence.)

Ffos Las - 20:20 - Equus Dancer - 1st @ 0

I have updated the results (24th May 2021) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

A number of systems are combined to create system selections.

Click on the image to see it full size.

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Something to make you smile...

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On A Lonely Desert Island...

A guy is stranded on an island with only a Doberman and a pig for company.

There's plenty of food and water, and the weather is beautiful, so he's doing alright - but after a few months he gets lonely...

The pig starts to look more and more attractive - soft, pink flesh, round buttocks, etc.

But...

Every time this poor guy makes an advance towards the pig, the Doberman snarls at him and once almost bit his leg.

Very frustrating.

One day the guy sees a speck on the horizon, so he swims out there and it turns out to be a dinghy, cast adrift, and in the bottom of the boat is a beautiful woman, unconscious.

He drags her to shore and brings her into his hut and slowly nurses her back health.

Finally she is well enough to walk and she says to him "Thank you, thank you for saving my life. I don't know how I can ever repay you. I'll do anything for you, anything, just name it."

The guy thinks for a minute and says...

"Would you mind taking my dog for a walk?"

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards