Morning News

You know, I actually missed doing my morning news yesterday.

I've only been doing it for a couple of weeks now and it's already become part of my routine.

Anyway, after a very needed weekend off (when I tried very hard not to think about horse racing) I'm all raring to go.

I've got the schedule for the Winter upgrades sort of worked out and I'll share that with you tomorrow or Thursday.

It looks like it could be a busy week for me as I have to do many of the behind the scenes updates to allow me to start the upgrade process.

So, is I don't answer emails straight away, please bear with me.

Yesterday's Results

Well, what a strange day, as you can see from the Results.

When I took a peak at the early morning ratings, I thought that it would just be a less then average day.

However, the eventual strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 28.57% is quite impressive.

More importantly, the strike rate for the top three rated horses was 76.19%.

You might be interested to know that I have a target strike rate (what I believe that the ratings can achieve) of 30% for the top rated horse and 80% for the top three rated horses; we were so close yesterday.

Forecasts

There were three forecasts yesterday.

Plumpton 13:10 - The CSF paid £1.57

Plumpton 14:10 - The CSF paid £5.08

Kempton 15:20 - The CSF paid £5.91

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 21 rated races there were 16 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - 9 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Plumpton	12:40	Dusky Lark	9.0	10.50
Wolverhampton	13:25	Lady Charlie	15.0	17.38
Plumpton	13:40	Grape Tree Flame	11.07	12.25
Wolverhampton	14:30	Boogangoo	8.0	8.20
Plumpton	14:40	Hold the Bucks	5.5	5.80
Plumpton	15:10	Ballyvoneen	6.0	6.20
Plumpton	15:40	Tambura	17.0	34.85
Wolverhampton	16:05	Auld Fyffee	5.5	5.28
Kempton	17:20	Pretty Bubbles	51.0	92.65

Comments...

A quiet day's racing so not too much for me to say.

1). In the 14:20 at Kempton our second rated horse became a non runner and the Live Ratings promoted our 3rd rated horse to 2nd rated.

It brought in Understory as a new 3rd rated horse; Understory came 2nd at 6.0 ISP.

2). In the 14:50 at Kempton, our top rated horse became a non-runner. The Live Ratings promoted the 2nd rated horse to top rate and out 3rd rated horse to 2nd rated. The Live Ratings then brought in Schottische as the new 3rd rated horse. Schottische came second at 34.0 ISP (40.37 BSP.)

3). In the 13:10 at Plumpton, we got the first three in the right order. The Trifecta paid £6.20.

4). In the 14:10 at Plumpton, we got the first three in the right order. The Trifecta paid £6.80

5). The 15:50 at Kempton was unrated as I could only rated 3 of the 8 horses.

As you can see,

Pathway to Honour was top rated

Greatest Hits was second rated and

Goodby Inheritance was our third rated horse.

Greatest Hits won the race and Pathway to Honour came second.

6). In the 17:20 at Kempton, our 2nd rated horse came first at 50/1 ISP (92.65 BSP)

The Portfolio

There was no Banker's Bet yesterday (and, thus, no Chancer's Bet)...

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Dutching

Work will continue on my investigations into the possibilities of Dutching the top three rated horses this next week.

Unrated Races

The two new file formats (to show all races, including those currently unrated) will be available from tomorrow. I have an early morning appointment today and I don't want to risk making any changes whilst my back is turned, so to speak.

Today

Three meetings today and the day looks remarkably similar to yesterday with small fields.

The average RC1 (across all races) is rather high (as it was yesterday.)

That means that I can rate a large percentage of the horses and that the fields are small.

I've just run the test ratings (3:30am) and they look good, with 20 rated races.

There is nothing in the early ratings that makes me choke on my cornflakes but there are three races at Wolves that look interesting.

1). Wolverhampton 15:10 - Spinaminnie is running at a far higher rating than its average ratings; it has dropped 2 classes and last ran only 6 days ago. She's also Mark Johnston's only horse at the meeting.

2). Wolverhampton 16:10 - Yard of Ale is running with a massive rating of 6.33 (that's either Frankel territory - or a bug in the code) compared to his average ratings of 2.98. It's a small race and I've only been able to rate 4 of the 7 runners; that sort of makes it a 4 horse race. He is the trainer's only horse at the meeting, last ran less than 3 weeks ago and has been placed twice over the going and in the same class.

3). Wolverhampton 16:40 - Rightway has an incredible rating of 7.58 compared to his average rating of 3.08 (and I'm starting to get worried that this might be a bug, although I haven't changed the code); he has a confidence level of 200% (the highest possible) and last ran less than a week ago. Oddchecker currently has him at a price of 1.64 and the 2nd rated horse is moving up a class which reduces the statistical likelihood of him winning.

As always, these aren't tips; they are just what makes me chew thoughtfully on my cornflakes and ponder... "They could be interesting."

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards