Morning News

Good morning...

A decent day, yesterday,

When it would have been profitable to have blindly backed the top rated horse, the 2nd rated horse or, in fact, all top three rated horses in every race.

And a bit of a stunner for the new Place Betting Strategy.

I did a couple of updates to bring the Winter Upgrades nearer to completion.

Of course, I mustn't forget to mention that, had you done the Forecast in every qualifying race yesterday, you would have had £73.50 returned for £42.00 staked.

Come to think of it, had you done the Reverse Forecast in every race you would have had £129.63 returned for £84.00 laid out in stakes.

And the new Place Betting strategy got off to a reasonable start with 2 selections, both whom obliged and won (got a paying place, in other words) and...

For the 2 units staked, you would have had 13.93 units returned (assuming a 5% Betfair commission.)

Which isn't so shabby for the first day of a new (and refined) strategy.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.19%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 23.4% from all 47 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 129.64 units returned to 126 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 2.89%

Top Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the top rated horses from 42 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 42.94 units returned to 42 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 2.24%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the second rated horses from 41 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 57.58 units returned to 41 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 40.44%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 43 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29.12 units returned to 43 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -32.28%

Forecasts

There were 5 forecasts yesterday.

Newton Abbot 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £24.66

York 17:15:00 - The CSF paid £14.70

Chepstow 18:20:00 - The CSF paid £2.46

Clonmel 18:35:00 - The CSF paid £25.81

Goodwood 19:35:00 - The CSF paid £5.87

Reverse Forecasts

There were 4 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Clonmel 17:35:00 - The CSF paid £16.19

Chepstow 18:55:00 - The CSF paid £11.06

Clonmel 19:05:00 - The CSF paid £21.42

Goodwood 20:45:00 - The CSF paid £7.46

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 2 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Aintree 18:45:00 - The Tricast paid £176.74. The Trifecta paid £121.50

Chepstow 18:55:00 - The Tricast paid £69.62. The Trifecta paid £50.20

Winners

From the 44 rated races there were 26 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 9 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Newton Abbot	13:50	Fuse Wire (5)	6.50	7.28
York	15:05	Lady Wulfruna (4)	9.00	12.40
York	15:40	Regal Dan (8)	8.50	9.70
York	17:15	Sellingallthetime (3)	5.50	5.72
Clonmel	17:35	Supreme Benefit (16)	11.00	15.00
Aintree	17:40	Brave Helios (5)	15.00	17.63
Goodwood	18:00	Scottish Glen (7)	6.00	6.80
Aintree	18:45	Silver Man (8)	7.00	8.01
Clonmel	20:15	Araglen Lad (3)	8.00	9.45

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Profit and Loss

I have added the P&L figure to the Portfolio Bet email. There wasn't a Portfolio bet yesterday but, I'm guessing that form 61 races there may be one today.

I've also added monthly, three monthly, six monthly and annual P&L numbers to the Bankers Bet Proofing Page... http://focusratings.com/bankers-bet-proofing-page/

Today I shall add those numbers to the Chancers Bet Proofing Page.

Place Betting Strategy

Yesterday I updated the new Place Betting Strategy and wrote a post about it... http://focusratings.com/articles/place-betting-strategy-refined/

The rules of this strategy are...

Place bet on Betfair (back) the...

1). Top 3 rated horse that is top on Yield (of the top three rated horses)

2). In non-handicap races

3). Where there are 8 or more runners

4). Where the horse has a Forecast Starting Price (my unique forecast starting price) as follows...

Runners	Price Band	Races
16 to 19	12.0 to 40.0	33
16 to 19	4.0 to 8.0	23
20 Plus	12.0 to 22.00	11
20 Plus	2.0 to 8.0	9
8 to 15	10.0 to 18.0	268
8 to 15	25.0 Plus	78

5). If the race has between 8 and 15 runners then it must have a RC0 of 1.

Yesterday there were 2 races where those conditions were met.

From those 2 races we had 2 winners; that equates to a reasonably decent strike rate of 100%.

For the 2 units staked, you would have had 13.93 units returned (assuming a 5% Betfair commission.)

Which isn't such a bad return.

The actual races were...

York 14:00 - Kodimoor came second @ 11.49 BFPP
Clonmel 17:35 - Silver Sally came third @ 3.18 BFPP

I need to run the new strategy through the 2014 races just to verify it and, once I've done that I'll publish a new spreadsheet.

If I can (and no promises here) I'll try to do a post showing today's selections for this strategy. That won't happen until after the System Selection and Portfolio Selections have gone out, though.

My strategy is just one way of interpreting the data and you may well be able to come up with better ways of doing so. On the post that I wrote yesterday (the link to it is above) there is a link to the spreadsheet with the raw data.

Some of you might want to consider removing certain Race Types in order to improve the strike rate although, in yesterday's case I think that you'd found it difficult to improve on a strike rate of 100%.

Please don't think that this is the "Holy Grail."

One day's results do not, a system make.

So, no sneakily re-mortgaging the house, selling your granny into the white slave trade and selling one of your kidneys just to bet it all on today's selections - probably best to paper trade it for a while.

One thing that I've learned is that it's always easier to lose money than it is to do the actual work to earn the money in the first place.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 61 rated races from nine meetings.

And surely that's far too many, isn't it?

If you are a form based punter, do you have to get up early in order to analyse 61 races?

Anyway, have a great (big) day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards