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Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsWhat can I say?

A 50% Strike Rate for our top rated horse yesterday!

On what was actually quite a mundane day's racing!

And, in 75% of all rated races, the race was won by a top three rated horse!

I'm going to run out of exclamation marks at this rate!

Whoops, there goes another one.

And our Portfolio selection won - that was the icing on the cake for me.

I'm not even going to mention our 25/1 winner (52.69 BetFair starting price.)

Well, I might mention that a few times, later on in this post.

It would be rude not to.

Yesterday's Results

Well, what a strange day, as you can see from the Results.

When I looked at the early morning ratings, I thought that it would just be a day similar to Monday.

I was hoping for a strike rate (for the top rated horse) of about 28%

However, the eventual strike rate (for the top rated horse) of 50.00% has blown me away.

More importantly, the strike rate for the top three rated horses was 75.00%.

Either Christmas has come early or....

This is just a dream and I'll wake up in a few hours time to find that it was just quite an average day.

Forecasts

There were three forecasts yesterday.

Sedgefield 12:30 - The CSF paid £10.83

Wolverhampton 14:40 - The CSF paid £1.48

Wolverhampton 16:10 - The CSF paid £1.80

Tricast

There were no tricasts yesterday.

Winners

From the 20 rated races there were 15 winners (from the top 3 rated horses) - 4 of those were at nice prices.

Course Time Horse ISP BSP
Sedgefield 13:00 Dibdabs 26.0 52.69
Sedgefield 14:00 Nautical Twilight 5.5 6.80
Wolverhampton 15:40 Rowlestone Lass 10.0 11.69
Wolverhampton 17:10 Lord of the Storm 11.0 13.68

Comments...

There's actually not too much to say about the racing yesterday.

After all, it was quite a mundane day (as far as the races were concerned.)

1). In the 13:10 at Sedgefield our third rated horse won at 25/1 (52.69 BSP.)

There's no way it should have been at that price (not that I'm complaining) - after all, it was the only one of the top three rated horses that had actually won on soft going.

2). The 14:20 at Southwell wasn't rated as I could only rate 3 of the 10 runners.

southwell

As you can see, Lemony Bay would have been our top rated horse.

Mad Jack Mytton would have been our 2nd rated horse and

Norman Bates would have been our third rated horse.

Lemony Bay came third and Mad Jack Mytton came second (at 11.5 BSP.)

Norman Bay was a non-runner.

3). In the 14:40 at Wolverhampton we got the first three in the right order. I can't show it as a Tricast as it was only a 5 horse race. The Trifecta paid £4.50.

4). Wolverhampton 15:10 – I said (in yesterday's Morning News) that this was a race to watch out for as... Spinaminnie is running at a far higher rating than its average ratings; it has dropped 2 classes and last ran only 6 days ago. She’s also Mark Johnston’s only horse at the meeting.

Well, I got that one wrong (which is why you should never listen to anything I have to say before I've finished my breakfast.) Spinaminnie came third. I seem to remember reading somewhere that Mark Johnstone races his horses more often than other trainers and perhaps some of them can't take the quantity of races.

5). Wolverhampton 16:10 – I said (in yesterday's Morning News) that this was a race to watch out for as... Yard of Ale is running with a massive rating of 6.33 (that’s either Frankel territory – or a bug in the code) compared to his average ratings of 2.98. It’s a small race and I’ve only been able to rate 4 of the 7 runners; that sort of makes it a 4 horse race. He is the trainer’s only horse at the meeting, last ran less than 3 weeks ago and has been placed twice over the going and in the same class.

And I got this one right!

Yard of Ale won the race and our second rated horse came second.

Perhaps it was the second cup of coffee that made the difference.

6). Wolverhampton 16:40 - I said (in yesterday's Morning News) that this was a race to watch out for as... Rightway has an incredible rating of 7.58 compared to his average rating of 3.08 (and I’m starting to get worried that this might be a bug, although I haven’t changed the code); he has a confidence level of 200% (the highest possible) and last ran less than a week ago. Oddschecker currently has him at a price of 1.64 and the 2nd rated horse is moving up a class which reduces the statistical likelihood of him winning.

Well, Rightway won and our third rated horse came second.

I guess that that's because I was into my Shredded Wheat by the time that I looked at that race.

The Portfolio

There was a Banker's Bet yesterday (but no Chancer's Bet)...

Bankers Bet = Bumper Drops! - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = National Hunt - Flat and where RC0 (Good Race/Bad Race) = 1 and Horse has dropped 1 Class

Selection = Back to ISP - Sedgefield - 15:30:00 - Skylander (6)

Races (over last year): 18 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 33.33% ROI: 144.32%

Skylander went on to win at 2.88 ISP (2.92 BSP.)

It's nice to get another win; I put so much time and effort into designing a portfolio of systems that would give Jill and me (and you, as well) a bet a day with a pretty good strike rate.

The lack of a bet a day and the bad results when there has been a bet has made me a little sad.

But, do know what the really sad thing is?

I was so tied up with coding yesterday that...

Yes, you know what I'm going to say; I forgot to put the bl**dy bet on!

I spent the night sat on the naughty step and it was bread and water for tea!

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Any other business

And finally...

Winter Upgrades

I've written a post to detail the Winter Upgrades.

You can take a look at that post here... http://focusratings.com/articles/winter-upgrades/

Now, I may have missed out some of the things that I've promised you; if so, please let me know - it's not too late to add further upgrades.

Today

Four meetings today and the day looks remarkably similar to yesterday with smallish fields; 2 NH meetings and 2 AW.

The average RC1 (across all races) is fairly high but slightly lower than yesterday's average RC1.

I've just run the test ratings (3:30am) and they look good, with 26 rated races.

From a quick look at the test ratings, the only thing that stands out for me is that most of the races are very close in terms of the ratings of the horses (expressed by their confidences.)

The only races that make me raise my eyebrows (and that's very difficult for me at this time of the day) are...

1). Lingfield 2:30 - Our top rated horse is Picansort. Now, this is a Class 2 race and the last time Picansort ran, it was in a Class 6 races (and three Class 5 races before that.) He hasn't run since July; plenty of going wins and places but I'm not so sure that that matters on the All Weather tracks.

However, he has won twice (since I started the ratings in January 2013) at Lingfield, over the same distance and going - once again, I'm not too sure how much CDG matters on the AW.

He is the Jockey's only ride at Lingfield and the Trainer's only horse at the meeting. A bit of a conundrum for me; Oddschecker have got him at 10/1 (which gives him a high yield of about 11.4) but I have a feeling that, perhaps, the ratings may have got this one wrong.

2). Ludlow 3:40 - The horse with the highest confidence level of the day (based upon the early ratings which may, of course, change by the time the normal ratings come out) is The Hon Mackinlay. He is the Jockey's only ride at the meeting and the Trainer's only horse at the meeting.

I'm not sure if that means anything though. The jockey does have a 7lb allowance (I think - I'm rubbish at reading race cards) but then again, Tony McCoy is riding Outrath in the same race and all the money will be on him and that may work in our favour by making our top rated horse a value prospect

And Outrath hasn't run for seven months whereas The Hon Mackinlay last ran 26 days ago.

So, as you can see, this is another confusing race for me.

Once again, these aren't tips; they are just my silly wafflings based purely upon the numbers that I see in front of me.

As you know, I'm not really a betting man and, to be honest, there's nothing in today's ratings that will change that and make me rush down to the bookies with my piggy bank in my hands.

In any case, my nearest bookies (the British kind) is in Plymouth and that's 247km away.

Have a great day's racing!

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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