Morning News

Good morning...

Well, a quiet day, yesterday,

But, with a decent strike rate.

And a profitable day for the new place betting strategy.

Our Chancer's Bet won,

Although our Banker's Bet didn't perform.

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25.93%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.59%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 24.14% from all 29 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 45.89 units returned to 78 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -41.17%

Top Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the top rated horses from 27 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18.66 units returned to 27 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -30.89%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the second rated horses from 26 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 9.23 units returned to 26 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -64.5%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the third rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18 units returned to 25 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -28%

Forecasts

There were 2 forecasts yesterday.

Salisbury 13:45:00 - The CSF paid £4.00

Doncaster 14:00:00 - The CSF paid £5.04

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Salisbury 14:50:00 - The CSF paid £7.58

Downpatrick 15:15:00 - The CSF paid £20.84

Tricasts/Trifectas

There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.

Doncaster 14:00:00 - The Trifecta paid £32.10

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There was combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Salisbury 15:25:00 - The Trifecta paid £14.80

Winners

From the 29 rated races there were 13 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 2 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Doncaster	14:30	Borak (1)	8.00	9.40
Doncaster	16:50	Dark Ocean (2)	6.50	7.46

The Portfolio

There was both a Banker's Bet and a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

Bankers Bet = Flat Big Field Maiden Favs - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is a Maiden Race and Runners was equal to or more than 16 and Horse was a Favourite, Joint Favourite or a Co Favourite

Selection = Back to ISP - Doncaster - 15:05:00 - Stubbins (16)

Races (over last year): 18 Wins: 10 Strike Rate: 55.56% ROI: 148.90% AV SP: 2.68

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £88.00

Stubbins came seventh.

Chancers Bet = Flat Apprentice - not April - where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is an Apprentice Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Country = UK and the Month is May or the Month is June or the Month is July or the Month is August or the Month is September or the Month is October and the Horse\'s R4 is greater than 3.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Doncaster - 14:00:00 - Paris Snow (1)

Races (over last year): 62 Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 32.26% ROI: 113.88AV SP: 3.53

Paris Snow won at 1.91 ISP (2.0 BSP.)

Profit/Loss (to £10 stakes): is £86.00

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy Selections

So, yesterday we had three selections (based upon the original strategy.)

Those selections were...

1). Salisbury 14:50 - Maybe Tomorrow

2). Doncaster 15:05 - She is no Lady

3). Doncaster 15:40 - Burning Love

Now, our first selection was a non-runner and although I took a quick look, from the All Horses PDF (option 3 on the ratings email)... http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-complete-2015-06-14-602295.pdf you can see that Althania would be the selection but, however, her Forecast SP would make her a non-contender.

Our second selection (She is no Lady in the 15:05 at Doncaster) came second in a 17 horse race.

Betfair paid 2.46 for the place so, at that point, we were running at a 100% strike rate and had 2.337 points returned for 1 point staked.

Our third selection (Burning Love in the 15:40 at Doncaster) came nowhere so that leaves us with 2.337 units returned for 2 units staked (after a 5% Betfair commission) which gives us a 0.337% point profit to 2 points staked today.

Over the last 3 days the current strategy (the soon to be improved strategy) has given us 4 winners from 6 selections and has returned 18.037 points to 6.0 points staked (assuming a 5% Betfair commission.)

And that's pretty naughty in my book!

In fact, that's pretty obscene!

Actually, I'm worried about getting arrested for that!

After all, a 66.66% strike rate isn't to be sniffed at and...

I'd love to see you try to persuade your Building Society manager to give you a 300% return on your investment in just 3 days!

Now, things can only get better....

As you know, I've decided to split my Place Betting Strategy into two separate strategies.

I published my ideas about how to bet the bigger races yesterday (in this post) and I promised you a cheat sheet so that you can further refine that strategy, should you wish to do so.

If I don't get that done today, please nag me!

I'm sort of multitasking at the moment (trying to deal with the normal day to day stuff, trying to get Sherlock and Holmes written, trying to sort out the Speed Ratings and trying to analyse the data for the new Place Betting Strategy) and, as I'm frequently reminded...

Men just can't multitask!

How true!

Today I'm going to be working on looking at the smaller races; I may even take another look at the 5 to 7 runner races in Ireland as there are some inconsistencies there - in other words, there may be some unexposed value to be had.

I'll also be trying to produce a Week on Week and Month on Month Profit and Loss report (for the 16 runner plus races) which, I guess, that you guys will need in order to sort out a staking plan for the bigger races.

However, after yesterday and, after the last three days and, after my analysis of the last 23 month's data - I now have pretty good feeling that I can reach that holy grail of a profitable system with 3 races a day and 5 winning days a week.

Obviously, once you guys start betting on that strategy, the liquidity may go down; that needs to be taken into account.

However, I love the fact that so many of you have joined in and helped me cement this strategy.

That's made my job so much easier.

Derek, you've suggested that by applying a Back and Lay strategy to the place selections I can make more money - I really need to look into backing the selections in the win market at BSP and then laying them in running at 50% of the win odds.

Something to think about, certainly!

Some of you have suggested that I shouldn't ignore the handicap races - the prices there are certainly very attractive but I feel that a separate system is required in order to exploit them.

I know that one of you is insisting that I'm silly to ignore the smaller races in Ireland - now, I do know that there's some value in the place market there.

However, there are only 28 hours in a day and Wine O'Clock does tend to take up two of them and so...

It might take a few more days (for that, read.. a week) before I'm happy.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 34 rated races from five meetings.

Every race is rated.

I'll be sending out the Place Betting selection for the Current Strategy and for the new Big Races Strategy just after the Portfolio selections have gone out.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards