Morning News

Good morning...

Yesterday was less than stellar but...

As we are running at a Strike Rate for June of 25.99%,

I'm not too worried.

I spent most of yesterday number crunching in order to try and find a strategy for profiting from big race handicaps...

To no avail, I'm afraid.

I have written a post about that here... http://focusratings.com/articles/place-betting-strategy-big-handicaps/

Anyway, I'll get to that, firstly let's get on and take a quick look at yesterday's results in more detail....

Yesterday's Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 18.75%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.59%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 18.18% from all 33 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 75.81 units returned to 93 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -18.48%

Top Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the top rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 15.87 units returned to 32 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -50.41%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 32 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.29 units returned to 32 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -36.59%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 7 winners from the third rated horses from 29 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 39.65 units returned to 29 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 36.72%

Forecasts

There were 0 forecasts yesterday.

Reverse Forecasts

There were 2 reverse forecasts yesterday.

Carlisle 16:45:00 - The CSF paid £6.90

Windsor 18:20:00 - The CSF paid £2.23

Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 0 tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Combination Tricasts/Trifectas

There were 3 combination tricasts/trifectas yesterday.

Southwell 16:30:00 - The Trifecta paid £31.50

Carlisle 16:45:00 - The Trifecta paid £8.70

Southwell 17:30:00 - The Tricast paid £43.69. The Trifecta paid £64.50

Winners

From the 33 rated races there were 18 winners (from the top 3 rated horses.) 5 of those were at nice prices.

Course	Time	Horse	ISP	BSP
Southwell	16:30	Miss Fortywinks (7)	11.00	15.00
Carlisle	16:45	Freedom Rock (6)	5.50	6.80
Southwell	17:00	New Horizons (1)	6.50	7.60
Sligo	18:00	Gun Shoot (11)	6.00	7.60
Sligo	18:30	Rathbride Raven (6)	8.00	10.50

The Portfolio

There was neither a Banker's Bet nor a Chancer's Bet yesterday.

On the Portfolio Page there is now a link to the Banker's Bet Proofing Page and, also to the Chancer's Bet proofing page.

You may subscribe to my Portfolio. To do so, you need to go to your Members Page and change option 4 on the Your Profile bit.

If you haven't subscribed, the button will say Yes - just click on it and you'll be signed up.

Place Betting Strategy

Both of our selections let us down yesterday.

Over the last 4 days the current strategy (the soon to be improved strategy) has given us 4 winners from 8 selections and has returned 18.037 points to 8.0 points staked (assuming a 5% Betfair commission.)

Now, there is something at the back of my mind that is nagging me...

The historical Strike Rate of this strategy is 43.12%

We can assume that the future strike rate will be similar and so,

If we were running at a recent strike rate of 66% (as we were, yesterday morning), is it logical to assume a correction?

Maybe there is some logic to avoiding a strategy when it has recently been running significantly above its historic strike rate and vice versa.

Perhaps I should publish, on the selections email, the historical and the recent strike rates.

Let me know what you think.

Today

Today's early test ratings show 32 rated races from five meetings.

Every race is rated.

After breakfast I shall get on with looking at 8 to 15 runner non-handicaps for the Place Betting Strategy.

Once again, thank you very much for all your emails with advice of areas to look at.

I've got a bit of a backlog but I shall answer them all.

I'll be sending out the Place Betting Strategy selections just after the Portfolio email goes out.

Have a great day's racing!

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to the Focus Ratings Review at Tipsters Review and have your say.

The income that we make from sign ups from that site keeps me in Red Wine and Smelly Cheese!

As always...

My kindest regards