Morning News – 2022-08-11

Good morning...

Moving my desk so that I could get my windows open didn't take as long as I thought yesterday.

And, amazing, nothing went wrong - that's got to be a first!

I've now got a nice breeze coming in over the top of my screens and it is making all the difference.

Once I had got that out of the way I decided to clear down some of the old jobs.

For the last 6 months one of the Focus Ratings members has been asking if I could take a look at the possibility of doing the Patent or Lucky 15 on the Focus Ratings R10 non-handicap selections.

So, I did some analysis and it seemed like following up.

With no filters at all, there were 3 non-handicap R10 top rated horses yesterday...

Yarmouth - 14:50 - Bellstreet Bridie - 1st @ 15/8 ISP
Gowran Park - 16:20 - Zaniuka - 4th
Ffos Las - 19:45 - Karuoka - 2nd

So, enough for a Patent, then.

I also took the time to re-visit an old strategy that I never finished.

This provides just 2 win bets a day from the R10 top rated horses (handicap or non-handicap.)

The Chancer's Bet (high profits but slightly more risky) was...

Beverley - 16:10 - Andaleep - 1st @ 5/6 ISP

The Banker's Bet (high strike rate but lower prices) was...

Yarmouth - 14:50 - Bellstreet Bridie - 1st @ 15/8 ISP

Today's suggestions (please bear in mind that this is Beta testing)...

There are 4 non-handicap R10 top rated horses today...

Beverley - 13:35 - Beautiful Aisling
Salisbury - 13:55 - American In Paris
Salisbury - 14:30 - Time Step
Leopardstown - 18:20 - Only

This means that we can do the Lucky 15.

To continue with my old strategy (for two bets a day)...

The Chancer's Bet (high profits but slightly more risky) is...

There are no selections today.

The Banker's Bet (high strike rate but lower prices) is...

Salisbury - 14:30 - Time Step

Now, I personally (having taken a good look at the spreadsheet) don't believe that there is a long term strategy by doing multiple bets n the non-handicap

I have an idea that we should any potential selections for the Chancer's Bet and Banker's Bet as our selections for our multiple bets.

For example, today there were two potential selections for the Banker's Bet...

Beverley - 13:35 - Beautiful Aisling
Salisbury - 14:30 - Time Step

I chose Time Step as it has the higher Confidence level but, according to my theory we should use those two horses (and any potential selections for the Chancer's Bet) as the basis for the multiple bets.

So...

According to this, today we would be doing a win bet on both of those horses and, also, a double on them. I shall come up with definitive rules tomorrow.

I shall be continuing with investigating this for the next few days. I shall be publishing the selections in the Morning News until I am happy that there is a decent strategy and then Focus Ratings members will be able to get the selections emailed to them for free.

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Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 9.76% from all 41 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 18.7 units returned to 35 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -46.57%

Top Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the top rated horses from 12 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 7.2 units returned to 12 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -40%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the second rated horses from 12 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 5.62 units returned to 12 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -53.17%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 2 winners from the third rated horses from 11 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 5.88 units returned to 11 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -46.55%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 4 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 1 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 25%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 2.75 units returned to 4 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -31.25%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 4 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 2 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 50%

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Investment Betting

There were four Investment Betting selections (using the new R10 based system) yesterday...

Yarmouth - 13:50 - Priscillas Wish - 1st @ 2.25 BSP

Yarmouth - 14:50 - Bellstreet Bridie - 1st @ 3.20 BSP

Beverley - 16:10 - Andaleep - 1st @ 1.92 BSP

Ffos Las - 19:45 - Karuoka - 2nd

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Precision Betting

There were two selections yesterday.

Yarmouth - 14:50 - Ward Castle - Win Bet - 4th
Gowran Park - 16:20 - Livia Celeste - Lay Stake - 5th

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EarlyBird Ratings

There were no Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selections yesterday...

Focus Ratings and Place Profit members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

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Portfolio Betting

A portfolio of micro systems that Work together to produce long term profits.

At the end of every month, the results are analysed and the systems are tweaked to maintain consistency.

There were twelve selections yesterday.

Salisbury -14:30 - Glamorous Breeze - 3 points Win bet - 1st @ 3.95 BSP
Salisbury - 15:00 - Leuven Power - 2 points Win bet - 1st @ 3.44 BSP
Beverley - 16:10 - Andaleep - 2 points Win bet - 1st @ 1.92 BSP
Beverley - 16:10 - Andaleep - 2 points Place bet - 1st @ 1.14 BSP
Kempton - 17:05 - Unagi - 1 point Win bet - 5th
Kempton - 17:05 - Unagi - 1 point Place bet - 5th
Gowran Park - 19:35 - Mullacash - 1 point Win bet - NR
Gowran Park - 19:35 - Mullacash - 1 point Place bet - NR
Gowran Park - 20:10 - Safecracker - 1 point Win bet - 1st @ 4.19 BSP
Gowran Park - 20:10 - Safecracker - 1 point Place bet - 1st @ 1.64 BSP
Kempton - 20:30 - Myriad - 1 point Win bet - 1st @ 4.20 BSP
Kempton - 20:30 - Myriad - 1 point Place bet - 1st @ 1.51 BSP

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Advance Ratings

There were no selections yesterday.

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Place Profits

Selections - Place Profits Plus

Yarmouth - 14:50 - Bellstreet Bridie - 1st @ 1.82

Selections - New System

Yarmouth - 13:50 - Priscillas Wish - 1st @ 1.19
Yarmouth - 14:50 - Bellstreet Bridie - 1st @ 1.82
Salisbury - 15:00 - Leuven Power - 1st @ 1.84
Beverley - 16:10 - Andaleep - 1st @ 1.14
Kempton - 17:05 - Unagi - 5th
Ffos Las - 19:45 - Karuoka - 2nd @

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Yarmouth - 14:50 - Bellstreet Bridie - 1st @
Yarmouth - 16:30 - Available Angel - 1st @ 1.41
Ffos Las - 17:30 - Tuddenham Mill - 5th

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Yarmouth - 16:30 - Available Angel - 1st @ 1.41
Ffos Las - 17:30 - Tuddenham Mill - 5th

Original System (200% Confidence.)

There are no selections today.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

Intelligent Betting has recently has a slight tweak to refine the selections.

In addition, there is also a new Place Betting option.

There were two selections yesterday.

Yarmouth - 13:50 - Priscillla's Wish- Win Bet - 1st @ 2.25 BSP
Yarmouth - 13:50 - Priscillla's Wish- Place Bet - 1st @ 1.19 BSP

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Something to make you smile...

The Italian bride...

A newly married Italian couple is spending their honeymoon in the bride's mother's country cottage.

It's the 1930s the bride’s father died long ago, and they don't have much money so this is the best they can do.

The new bride, a lovely young woman, has never left her village and never been with a man before.

Her new husband sits alone upstairs while she tells her mother how nervous and scared she is to be with a man for the first time.

"You-a don't-a worry" Her mother tells her "I stay here and make-a the spaghetti, you go upstairs and have-a some fun"

The young woman goes upstairs and readied herself to consummate her marriage.

Her husband, sitting on the bed smiling begins to remove his

shirt. Having never seen a hairy chest before, the young bride gets frightened and runs downstairs.

"Momma!" she says "It's-a so scary! He has-a the hair on his-a chest-a."

"Calm down, little one" her mother says, stirring the sauce. "Everything-a gonna be-a alright. I stay here and make-a the spaghetti, you go-a upstairs and have-a some fun"

So the young bride goes back upstairs. Her new husband takes off his shoes, and pulls down his pants. Having never seen hairy legs before, she gets scared and runs back downstairs.

"Oh-a momma!" she cries "It's-a so scary! He has-a the hair on his legs-a"

"It's-a OK," her mother says in a calming voice. "I stay here-a and make-a the spaghetti. You-a go upstairs and have-a some fun."

So the bride goes back upstairs.

Her new husband is now wearing only his underwear and socks.

She stands in the doorway, gathered herself and smiles at her groom. He sits on the bed and removes his socks.

However, the man had fought in the Great War and was injured by a landmine.

It blew off all of his toes and part of his left foot.

The new bride knowing this was not normal cried out in fear and ran back downstairs.

"Momma! Momma! she screams. It's-a so scary! Oh my god-a momma, I never seen-a anything like it before-a. You won’t believe it momma, but he has a foot and a half!"

The mother stops stirring her sauce and looks up at her daughter in disbelief.

After a short pause she says "OK dear, don't-a worry. You stay here-a and make-a the spaghetti... I go upstairs and have-a some fun"

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards