Morning News – 2022/01/21

Good morning...

Yesterday, I sent out an email to all Intelligent Betting full members.

To be completely transparent, I have decided to reproduce it here so that those of you who might be Intelligent Betting Free members can see what is going on.

Good Morning

Just a quick heads up that, as of this morning, there is another (additional) service on the daily selections email.

Since we made the tweak to the Intelligent Betting selections (on November 18th 2021) we have seen a rise in profitability for the selections but, also, we have noticed that when our selections don't come first, they very often get placed.

I have done some analysis and have worked out when it is appropriate to place bet the R1 selections (basically, the number of runners is the only additional filter.)

I am calling these bets R2 (Place Bet) selections and I shall be proofing them to Racing Index as well as the normal R1 selections.

Today there is 1 R2 (Place Bet) selection (which, obviously, is also an R1 selection.)

We should expect to get about 6 of these additional bets a week and, historically they have achieved a 79.59% strike rate with a POI (assuming a 2% Betfair commission) of 24.09%

Below are the selections over the last 2 months (since the tweak) to a 20 point bank...

As you can see, the longest losing run is 6 selections over a 3 day period.

We could, actually, bet to a 10 point bank (although there might be some bottom burping moments.)

Below are the selections to a 10 point bank...

As you can see, we double the bank (to level stakes) over a 2 month period.

Now, I know that questions will be asked about staking and, whilst I can only report to level stakes, I have taken a look at what happens if you compound your bets (with a daily reconcilliation) to a 10 point bank.

As you can see, this nearly triples the bank over a 2 month period.

Obviously, you are under no obligation to use these selections (maybe you don't like Place Betting) but I felt that I needed to explain both their appearence on the selections PDF and the rational behind them.

My kindest regards

Keith

Yesterday there was one selection;

Ludlow - 15:30 - Another Venture - R2 (Place Bet) - 2nd @ 1.44

So, a good start for us.

The thing about any systematic approach to horse racing is that it has to be constantly reviewed and tweaked.

By adding the tweak that we implemented on the 18th of November 2021 the service (Intelligent Betting) has improved so that it is now the 4th highest service independently proofed to Racing Index.

As you can see, over the last exact month, Intelligent Betting has had a strike rate of 45% and a POT (profit on turnover) of 30.30% to BSP (assuming a 5% commission.)

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Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 14.29%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 14.29%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 14.29% from all 21 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 82.24 units returned to 62 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, 32.65%

Top Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the top rated horses from 21 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 7.24 units returned to 21 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -65.52%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the second rated horses from 21 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 29 units returned to 21 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 38.1%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 6 winners from the third rated horses from 20 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 46 units returned to 20 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 130%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 8 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 1 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 12.5%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 1.33 units returned to 8 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -83.37%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 8 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 5 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 62.5%

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Investment Betting

There were two Investment Betting selections (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Ludlow - 13:30 - Zacony Rebel - 1st @ 1.30 ISP (1.33 BSP)

Ludlow - 14:00 - Mumbo Jumbo - 3rd

Investment Betting has been doing rather well recently with a 60% strike rate and a 23.80% profit to stakes (to BSP.)

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EarlyBird Ratings

There was one Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selection yesterday...

Wincanton - 13:15 - Duke Of Rockingham - 2nd

Focus Ratings and Place Profit members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

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Portfolio Betting

A portfolio of micro systems that...

Work together to produce long term profits.

At the end of every month, the results are analysed and the systems are tweaked to maintain consistency.

There were three Portfolio Betting selections yesterday.

Ludlow - 15:00 - Terrsita - 2nd

Newcastle - 16:30 - Cephalus - 1st @ 4.0 ISP (4.33 BSP)

Newcastle - 19:00 - Intervention - 4th

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Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meetings a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

The ratings for Sunday's meeting at Sha Tin will be sent out today.

If you are not a Compass Ratings member (it's free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Rating and Place Profits members - you just have to ask to be added to the list) but want to try it out, send me an email.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

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Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

There were five selections yesterday.

1.30 - Ludlow - Zacony Rebel - 1st @ 1.30 ISP (1.33 BSP)
3.25 - Newcastle - Vertice - 3rd
3.55 - Newcastle - Rose Of Lancashire - 2nd
4.00 - Ludlow - Tchoupinminzac - 1st @ 5.50 ISP (7.20 BSP)
4.20 - Wincanton - Twin Power - 2nd

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Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

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Place Profits

Selections - New System

Ludlow - 13:30 - Zacony Rebel - 1st @ 1.07
Newcastle - 17:30 - Night On Earth - 4th

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

Newcastle - 15:25 - Vertice - 3rd @ 1.34
Newcastle - 18:30 - Swinton - 9th

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

There are no selections today.

Original System (200% Confidence.)

Ludlow - 13:30 - Zacony Rebel - 1st @ 1.07

R9 Portfolio Place Selections

Place Bet Of The Day - 1 point bet on top place selection.

Race 1 - Wincanton - 14:45 - Jetaway Joey (Place Bet) - 1 Point - 2nd @ 2.54

I have updated the results (28th December 2021) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

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Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

Intelligent Betting has recently has a slight tweak to refine the selections.

The result of that tweak are clear to see...

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Something to make you smile...

A Priest, A Doctor and and Engineer...

A priest, a doctor, and an engineer were waiting one morning for a particularly slow group of golfers. The engineer fumed, "What's with those guys? We must have been waiting for fifteen minutes!"

The doctor chimed in, "I don't know, but I've never seen such inept golf!"

The priest said, "Here comes the green-keeper. Let's have a word with him."

He said, "Hello George, what's wrong with that group ahead of us? They're rather slow, aren't they?"

The green-keeper replied, "Oh, yes. That's a group of blind firemen. They lost their sight saving our clubhouse from a fire last year, so we always let them play for free anytime."

The group fell silent for a moment.

The priest said, "That's so sad. I think I will say a special prayer for them tonight."

The doctor said, "Good idea. I'm going to contact my ophthalmologist colleague and see if there's anything he can do for them."

The engineer said, "Why can't they play at night?"

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Many thanks to Mike D. for these images.

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Today

Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards