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Morning News – 2022/01/28

Posted by Keith Eckstein on Jan 28, 2022 in Blog | 0 comments

Good morning...

Multi Choice

Now, a while back, I mentioned that I am very interested in what happens to any selections that are selected by more than one of the services I produce.

These services are...

Advance Ratings System Selections (AR)
EarlyBird Platinum Selections (EB)
Investment Betting (IB)
Intelligent Betting (IntelBet)
Place Profits (PP)
Portfolio Betting (PB)
Focus Ratings R9 Portfolio (R9)

To try and work out if there is a strategy here, I shall publish the previous day's selections (and the results) every morning.

This is because I am getting nowhere by trying to do the analysis in a spreadsheet.

These were yesterday's various system selections.

Wetherby - 13:10 - Graystone - IntelBet - 1st @ 3.45 BSP
Southwell - 13:20 - Symbol Of Light - PB - R9 - 1st @ 1.88 BSP
Wetherby - 14:45 - Lupus Regem - AR - 2nd
Wetherby - 15:15 - Sholokjack - AR - 1st @ 3.40 BSP
Southwell - 16:00 - Percy Willis - IntelBet - 5th
Gowran Park - 16:07 - Douglas Dc - AR - 3rd
Wetherby - 16:17 - Bird On The Wire - AR - PB - 6th
Newcastle - 18:00 - Tommy Taylor - PB (2) - 1st @ 2.19 BSP
Newcastle - 19:00 - Blazing Hot - IB - AR - PP - PB (3) - R9 - 1st @ 4.02 BSP

Obviously the pick of the day would have to be Blazing Hot in the 19:00 at Newcastle, being picked by 5 separate services (and being picked 3 times by Portfolio Betting.)

This is what I am seeing on a daily basis; I have a feeling that maths doesn't really help here and a subjective approach is need to give a sort of Pick of the Day type selection.

All Weather Betting

A couple of days ago I got an email from one of the members who asked me...

"Do you think that Focus Ratings works better for All Weather racing than the Flat Turf?"

Now, logically, it should. There are no changes in going and there seem to be more Course specialists (due to the fewer number of courses.)

Also, there are some horses that only seem to run on the AW and they seem to perform well.

So, I got all inspired and cut a spreadsheet,

This spreadsheet is available at... AllWeather.xlsx and

My working spreadsheet (the one that I am testing strategies on) is available at... AllWeather01.xlsx and I shall share any ideas I have come up with on a daily basis.

If you look at AllWeather01.xlsx you will see that my primary idea is Place Betting those horses that are the Trainer's only horse in the meeting and the Jockey's only ride at the meeting. Colour coding the spreadsheet made these selections stand out.

I do have to warn you that I am missing Betfair prices from the 23rd December 2020. I am manually adding in those missing prices for my analysis but it is easier just to take out any races after that date.

I ought to mention that the raw data set is based on Focus Ratings R8 ratings (and only the top rated horse.)

I should also say that what I am trying to do is to create a selection of micro systems purely based upon AW racing - maybe 12 of them.

Update - 28/01/2022: Yesterday, life seemed to get in the way and I didn't get any work done on this strategy but I am sort of caught up and hope to be able to put a couple of hours work in today.

Intelligent Betting

A resonable day for the new Intelligent Betting selections yesterday.

Wetherby - 13:10 - Graystone - Win Bet - 1st @ 3.45 BSP

Southwell - 16:00 - Percy Willis - Win Bet - 5th

So, another profitable day.

Focus Ratings

Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results

Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.

Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 32.14%.

Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 31.03% from all 29 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 72.8 units returned to 79 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -7.85%

Top Rated Horse - There were 9 winners from the top rated horses from 27 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 32.8 units returned to 27 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 21.48%

2nd Rated Horse - There were 8 winners from the second rated horses from 26 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 40 units returned to 26 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, 53.85%

3rd Rated Horse - There were 0 winners from the third rated horses from 26 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 0 units returned to 26 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -100%

Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 8 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 3 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 37.5%

Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 7.3 units returned to 8 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -8.75%

Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 8 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 6 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 75%

A pen and a magnifying glass focusing on a chart.

Investment Betting

There was one Investment Betting selection (using the new R8 based system) yesterday...

Newcastle - 19:00 - Blazing Hot - 1st @ 3.50 ISP (4.02 BSP)

Investment Betting has been doing rather well recently with a 56.8% strike rate and a 13.40% profit to stakes (to BSP.)

EarlyBird Ratings

Southwell - 13:20 - Symbol Of Light - % Runners or Less - 1st @ 1.88 BSP
Wetherby - 16:17 - Bird On The Wire - Winner LTO - 6th
Newcastle - 18:00 - Tommy Taylor - 5 Runners Or Less - 1st @ 2.19
Newcastle - 18:00 - Tommy Taylor - 130% + Conf - 1st @ 2.19
Newcastle - 19:00 - Blazing Hot - 130% + Conf - 1st @ 4.02
Newcastle - 19:00 - Blazing Hot - 130% + Conf - 1st @ 4.02
Newcastle - 19:00 - Blazing Hot - 130% + Conf - 1st @ 4.02
There were no Diamonds and Gold (Platinum) selections yesterday...

Focus Ratings and Place Profit members can subscribe to these selections for free,

Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.

The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.

PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.

Portfolio Betting

A portfolio of micro systems that...

Work together to produce long term profits.

At the end of every month, the results are analysed and the systems are tweaked to maintain consistency.

There were seven Portfolio Betting selections yesterday.

Compass Ratings

Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meetings a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

The ratings for Saturday's meeting at Sha Tin will be sent out today.

If you are not a Compass Ratings member (it's free to Focus Ratings, Early Bird Rating and Place Profits members - you just have to ask to be added to the list) but want to try it out, send me an email.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Advance Ratings

Advance Ratings...

There were five selections yesterday.

2.45 - Wetherby - Lupus Regem - 2nd
3.15 - Wetherby - Sholokjack - 1st @ 2.50 ISP (3.40 BSP)
4.07 - Gowran Park - Douglas Dc - 3rd
4.17 - Wetherby - Bird On The Wire - 6th
7.00 - Newcastle - Blazing Hot - 1st @ 3.50 ISP (4.02 BSP)

Spotlight Ratings

Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

Ante Post Ratings

Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.

Currently Listed...

Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.

Just email me and I'll set up your account.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

Place Profits

Selections - New System

Newcastle - 19:00 - Blazing Hot - 1st @ 2.19

Selections - Original System

Original System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

There are no selections today.

Original System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)

There are no selections today.

Original System (200% Confidence.)

There are no selections today.

R9 Portfolio Place Selections

Place Bet Of The Day - 1 point bet on top place selection.

Race 1 - Southwell - 13:20 - Symbol Of Light (Place Bet) - 1 Point - 1st @ 1.30

I have updated the results (21st January 2022) and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.

The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/

Intelligent Betting

Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.

Intelligent Betting has recently has a slight tweak to refine the selections.

In addition, there is also a new Place Betting option.

The result of that tweak are clear to see...

Something to make you smile...

Heaven is a place on Earth...

Sid and Irv are business partners.

They make a deal that whichever one dies first will contact the living one from the afterlife.

So Irv dies.

Sid doesn’t hear from him for about a year, figures there is no afterlife.

Then one day he gets a call. It’s Irv. ‘So there is an afterlife! What’s it like?’ Sid asks.

‘Well, I sleep very late. I get up, have a big breakfast.

Then I have sex, lots of sex.

Then I go back to sleep, but I get up for lunch, have a big lunch.

Have some more sex, take a nap.

Huge dinner.

More sex.

Go to sleep and wake up the next day.’

‘Oh, my God,’ says Sid. ‘So that’s what heaven is like?’

‘Oh no,’ says Irv. ‘I’m not in heaven. I’m a bear in Yellowstone Park.’